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Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Electoral Dynamics: The Role of CampaignContext in Voting Choice
Carlos [email protected]
July 10, 2017
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Agenda
1 Incumbency
2 Partisanship
3 Campaign Resources
4 Collective Responsibility
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
1/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Models of Electoral Control
Vote-Choice Implications for AnalyticalHeuristic Model Representatives Purposes
Ideology Spatial/Proximity Responsive to Representation &Voting Median Voter Candidate
Positioning
Partisanship Michigan Responsive to Explaining voteModel Partisan Base choice/partisan
bias
Valence Retrospective Develop reputation, Explaining electoralModel/Valence (honesty/integrity), outcomes, pres.
Rule monitor economy forecasting
Note: Partisanship & ideology are generally prospective models.
I Opening Question: Which model of electoral choice do you think reducesthe information cost of voting the most? What is one potential pitfall forthe model of your choice?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
2/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Decline in Competition in House Elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
3/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Decline in Competition in Senate Elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
4/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
High Re-election Rates by Seat-Type
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U.S. House U.S. Senate
1952−1956
1958−1962
1964−1968
1970−1974
1976−1980
1982−1986
1988−1992
1994−1998
2000−2004
2006−2010
2012−2016
1952−1956
1958−1962
1964−1968
1970−1974
1976−1980
1982−1986
1988−1992
1994−1998
2000−2004
2006−2010
2012−2016
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Incu
mbe
nt R
e−le
ctio
n R
ate
● Marginal seat
Out−Partisan Seat
Safe Seat
Smoothed lowess regression curve illustrated to show trend in incumbent re−election by seat−type over cycle.
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?
I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House electionsin last 50 years
I What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain andhow does incumbency factor in?
I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.
I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirecteffect):
I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 years
I What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain andhow does incumbency factor in?
I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.
I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirecteffect):
I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?
I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.
I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirecteffect):
I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:
redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.
I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirecteffect):
I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:
redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirect
effect):
I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:
redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirect
effect):I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)
I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:
redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirect
effect):I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membership
I Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
5/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Importance of an Incumbency Advantage
I Why do you think American elections are so noncompetitive?I Abramowitz et al.: Decline in competition in House elections
in last 50 yearsI What is the puzzle Abramowitz et al. want to explain and
how does incumbency factor in?I Interested in evaluating three hypotheses explaining decline:
redistricting, incumbency, and partisanship.I Sources of an incumbency advantage (direct & indirect
effect):I Name recognition (constituency service, past campaigns, etc.)I “Perks of office” such as service & committee membershipI Ability to scare potential quality challengers
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
6/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Declining Worth of Incumbency in Congressional Elections
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Est
imat
ed In
cum
benc
y A
dvan
tage
●
●
U.S. House
U.S. Senate
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
7/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
7/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
7/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
8/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Open Seats & Variation in Campaign Spending
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
9/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
I Experienced quality candidates more likely to emerge in openseat races
I Why are experience candidates desirable for parties & why arethey strategic?
I What about support for gerrymandering hypotheses (i.e.redistricting)?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
9/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
I Experienced quality candidates more likely to emerge in openseat races
I Why are experience candidates desirable for parties & why arethey strategic?
I What about support for gerrymandering hypotheses (i.e.redistricting)?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
9/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Incumbency Continued
I What do Abramowitz et al. find with respect to therelationship between incumbency & decline in competition?
I Non-open seats more competitive than incumbentre-elections, why?
I Experienced quality candidates more likely to emerge in openseat races
I Why are experience candidates desirable for parties & why arethey strategic?
I What about support for gerrymandering hypotheses (i.e.redistricting)?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
10/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Lack of support for the Redistricting Hypothesis
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitive
I David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
11/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Salience of Redistricting as an explanation
I No support for the hypothesis: redistricting → ↓ competitiveI David Broder (The New York Times, 2004):
“both parties have succeeded in drawing district lines in ways thatcement their current power by eliminating contested elections . . .most states were drawn to protect incumbents from theinconvenience of competition”
I Why would redistricting not have an effect on competition inHouse elections?
I Increased salience of the partisan model in congressionalelections
I Similar trends in the Senate, fixed districts
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
12/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
12/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
12/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
13/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Decline of Split-Ticket Voting in Congressional Elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
14/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Decline of Split-Ticket Voting in Congressional Elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
15/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional electionsI What are the implications of increased partisanship for the
voting models discussed?
I More weight on candidate partisanship & ideologicalpreferences
I Is there are a trade-off between partisanship & incumbencyeffects in congressional elections?
I Potential implications of ↑ partisanship effect in electionoutcomes on valence model of vote choice?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
15/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional electionsI What are the implications of increased partisanship for the
voting models discussed?I More weight on candidate partisanship & ideological
preferences
I Is there are a trade-off between partisanship & incumbencyeffects in congressional elections?
I Potential implications of ↑ partisanship effect in electionoutcomes on valence model of vote choice?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
15/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional electionsI What are the implications of increased partisanship for the
voting models discussed?I More weight on candidate partisanship & ideological
preferencesI Is there are a trade-off between partisanship & incumbency
effects in congressional elections?
I Potential implications of ↑ partisanship effect in electionoutcomes on valence model of vote choice?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
15/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Flexing the Muscle of Partisanship
I Do Abramowtiz et al. find support for the “partisanpolarization” hypothesis?
I Less ticket splitting in contemporary congressional electionsI What are the implications of increased partisanship for the
voting models discussed?I More weight on candidate partisanship & ideological
preferencesI Is there are a trade-off between partisanship & incumbency
effects in congressional elections?I Potential implications of ↑ partisanship effect in election
outcomes on valence model of vote choice?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
16/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
17/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Growing Strength of Partisan Explanation
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
18/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending
I Consider the following Prisoner’s Dilemma
I What’s the logic behind the game? Can you apply this tocampaign spending generally?
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
19/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending Cont.
I Campaign funds from individuals & PACS allow candidates toinvest in campaign infrastructure, boost name recognition(ads), project policy positions, and define opponent (valence& policy positions)
I Campaign spending in election dynamic, both sides adhere tothe “arms-race” model
I Minimal (if any) independent on election outcomesI Post Citizens United campaigns are getting more expensive on
both sides but differential still approaching 0.I Campaign resources used primarily for mobilization rather
than conversion given precancel of partisan & spatial modelsin explaining vote-choice
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
19/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending Cont.
I Campaign funds from individuals & PACS allow candidates toinvest in campaign infrastructure, boost name recognition(ads), project policy positions, and define opponent (valence& policy positions)
I Campaign spending in election dynamic, both sides adhere tothe “arms-race” model
I Minimal (if any) independent on election outcomesI Post Citizens United campaigns are getting more expensive on
both sides but differential still approaching 0.I Campaign resources used primarily for mobilization rather
than conversion given precancel of partisan & spatial modelsin explaining vote-choice
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
19/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending Cont.
I Campaign funds from individuals & PACS allow candidates toinvest in campaign infrastructure, boost name recognition(ads), project policy positions, and define opponent (valence& policy positions)
I Campaign spending in election dynamic, both sides adhere tothe “arms-race” model
I Minimal (if any) independent on election outcomes
I Post Citizens United campaigns are getting more expensive onboth sides but differential still approaching 0.
I Campaign resources used primarily for mobilization ratherthan conversion given precancel of partisan & spatial modelsin explaining vote-choice
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
19/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending Cont.
I Campaign funds from individuals & PACS allow candidates toinvest in campaign infrastructure, boost name recognition(ads), project policy positions, and define opponent (valence& policy positions)
I Campaign spending in election dynamic, both sides adhere tothe “arms-race” model
I Minimal (if any) independent on election outcomesI Post Citizens United campaigns are getting more expensive on
both sides but differential still approaching 0.
I Campaign resources used primarily for mobilization ratherthan conversion given precancel of partisan & spatial modelsin explaining vote-choice
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
19/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Campaign Spending Cont.
I Campaign funds from individuals & PACS allow candidates toinvest in campaign infrastructure, boost name recognition(ads), project policy positions, and define opponent (valence& policy positions)
I Campaign spending in election dynamic, both sides adhere tothe “arms-race” model
I Minimal (if any) independent on election outcomesI Post Citizens United campaigns are getting more expensive on
both sides but differential still approaching 0.I Campaign resources used primarily for mobilization rather
than conversion given precancel of partisan & spatial modelsin explaining vote-choice
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
20/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Distribution of Campaign Spending, U.S. House
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
21/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Distribution of Campaign Spending, U.S. Senate
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
22/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Independent Effect of Campaign Spending on Elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
23/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Increased Nationalization of Congressional Elections
I What evidence that congressional elections are becoming lesslocal and more nationalized?
I Partisanship explaining more & more variation in electionoutcomes
I However, midterm slump for president’s party still a consistentpattern. Why?
I Out-party partisans more likely to vote & motivated by lowpresidential approval, thermostatic response to policy change& incumbents forced to take tough votes (ACA)
I Testing the relationship between presidential approval &president’s party (in-party) election performance
I If correlated, evidence for collective accountability & increased‘presidentialization’ of congressional elections
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
24/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Punishing the President’s Party in Congress
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
25/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Punishing the President’s Party in the Senate
Carlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7
26/26
Incumbency Partisanship Campaign Resources Collective Responsibility
Key Points:I Congressional elections becoming less competitiveI Safe & marginal seats are becoming safer for parties while
seats that favor other party are becoming more precariousI Incumbents still hold an advantage, but shrinking as elections
become more partisanI Redistricting plays very marginal role in shaping campaign
contextI Partisanship effect on electoral outcomes increasing in
congressional electionsI Campaign spending dynamic in nature, thus canceling out as
effect on election outcomesI President’s party generally fares poorly in midterm elections,
function of approval.I Consider if Madison would have a problem with role of
campaign context in vote-choiceCarlos Algara Introduction to American Politics: Meeting 7