Electoral Geography: Spatial Analysis Of Voting Patterns ... · organization, conduct and result of elections. It is also concerned with the study of the spatial voting pattern/ behavior

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Available online through - http://ijifr.com/searchjournal.aspx Published Online On: December 9, 2015

Copyright©IJIFR 2015

International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research ISSN: 2347-1697

Volume 3 Issue 4 December 2015 Research Paper

Abstract

The Present paper attempts to study the electoral geography in West Bengal and the development, voting pattern of assembly constituencies of West Bengal. Electoral geography attempts to drive conclusion about the voting patterns of people in specific parts of a region. The voting behavior of the electorates is largely influenced by their perception that existing during the time of election. The electoral behavior greatly influenced by the socio-economic conditions of geographical area. In 2011 assembly election TMC came and lead the government of West Bengal. And another hand end of 34 years longest ruler party of the state that is Left front. This election, recorded nearly 85% vote polling which was highest ever in the state. Trinomool Congress secured absolute majority in 2011 assembly election, winning 227 of the 294 seats and came out as a ruling party. The main objective of the present study is that to know the spatial pattern of voting behavior in 2011 assembly election in West Bengal. The study is based on secondary source of data. The electoral data has been taken from Election Commission of India, New Delhi. This paper also findings the increase of voter turnout, number of electorate, candidates as compared to previous election.

1. Introduction

Electoral geography is a new branch of political geography that is rising strongly in all the societies

of the world. The earliest known electoral study was conducted by Krehbiel (1916), he examined the

significance of geographic influence in an analysis of British Parliamentary elections between 1885

Electoral Geography: Spatial

Analysis Of Voting Patterns In 2011

Assembly Election In West Bengal Paper ID IJIFR/ V3/ E4/ 001 Page No. 1179-1187 Subject Area Geography

Keywords Electoral Geography, Assembly Election, Political Geography, Voting Pattern,

Electoral Behavior, Constituencies, Voter Turnout

1st Prof. Nizamuddin Khan

Professor

Department Of Geography Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh (U.P.)

2nd

Md Motibur Rahman Research Scholar Department Of Geography

Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh (U.P.)

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ISSN: 2347-1697 International Journal of Informative & Futuristic Research (IJIFR)

Volume - 3, Issue -4, December 2015 Continuous 28th Edition, Page No.:1179-1187

Prof. Nizam uddin Khan, Md Motibur Rahm an :: Electoral Geography: Spatial Analysis Of Voting Patterns In 2011 Assem bly Election In West

Bengal

and1990. Electoral geography has more developed in French geography with the work of Andre

Sieggried, called the ‘father of electoral geography’ (Taylor and Johnston 1979). The field of

electoral geography studies with the identification and explanation of spatial patterns in relations to

voting all elections. Electoral geographers attempt to show where candidates gain their popular

support and to predict what type of people are most likely to vote for those candidates (Johnston

2005). The study of voting patterns is the larger field of electoral geography as well as political

geography as a research subject. It addresses both political institution influence, and influence by,

the interaction of individuals across different scales (Demko and wood 1999). In particular, electoral

geography seeks to explain how the social circumstance of people’s lives can guide their political

preference, and in turn, their voting habits (Zuckerman 2005).

Electoral geography is defined as ‘‘the analysis of the interaction of space, place and

electoral process’’ (Pattie and Johnston). Taylor and Johnston (1979) identified ‘‘three main foci of

geographical interest in electoral studies’’. The first- geography of voting that is based on statistical

analysis which identified and explain voting pattern in particular election cycle, the second was the

geographic influence on voting including factors such as campaign strategies, specific voter issue on

the ballot and the type of candidates. The final was the geography of representatives which focused

on electoral district boundaries. Electoral geography tends to studies the geographical aspect of

organization, conduct and result of elections. It is also concerned with the study of the spatial voting

pattern/ behavior or the study of spatial distribution of political phenomena of voting. The legislative

assembly or Vidhan Sabha is the lower house or the sole house of the state legislature in the different

states of India. Its members are direct representative of the people. The Constitution of India

outlined the size of members of assembly election that is not more than 500 and not less than 60

members. In the West Bengal assembly election of 2011, the Trinomool Congress came and led the

government of West Bengal and another hand end of 34 years longest ruling party Left Front. It is

the 15th

assembly election in West Bengal, held on April 18 to May 10 in six phases. It has 294

assembly constituencies. The most important notable point is that this election recorded nearly 85%

vote polling which was the highest ever in the state. The Trinomool Congress won an absolute

majority of seats and Mamata Banarji led the government of West Bengal.

Electoral geography gives more importance on the spatial location, distribution and

interrelationship of economic groups, living in the physical environment within its limited resource

base. The most important contribution of electoral geography is that analysis of methods, behavior

and result of election in the geographical space. An election is a formal decision making process by

which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. It is also a mechanism by which

modern representative democracy has operated since 17th

century. Studying the geography of

elections is senseless without knowing what is behind these results and what political process

preceded them and justify what these results mean. The study of electoral geography is also

senseless without the knowledge of socio-economic characteristics of territory where the election is

taken place. So, electoral geography is an exceptionally integrated science, it has a close relationship

with political science, geography, history, economics and sociology. It helps to prove a democratic

form of government. So this paper has been attempts to study the electoral geography in West

Bengal and the development, voting pattern of assembly constituencies of West Bengal.

2. Significance Of The Study

Electoral geography studies the processes of political decision-making as the study of spatial

and environmental perceptions of such decision makers. Electoral geographers are largely concerned

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with mapping the response of voters to different political candidates and explain the factors that

influence those responses. Elections are the core of any functioning representative democracy. It

provides a way to the people where they do their voice, opinion, and choose the person whose

priorities and clear match with them. So the voting behavior of the electorates is largely influenced

by their perception existing at the time of elections. Election also provides a beautiful platform for

political participation to the party. One of the most important significant of the present study is that

change of leadership, in early 2006 assembly election, the leader was Budhadev Basu, but the people

change their leader in 2011 assembly election who is Mamota Banerjii. In the democratic societies,

elections are the most important part of the citizens for the decision making processes of

government. Election gives spatial attention to the citizen for their role in conceptualing the political

choices and voting behaviors of individuals. It gives electoral maps which clearly identify those

political units where people favour a specific candidates or party.

3. Aims and Objectives:

The main aims and objectives of the present study are as given below-

I. To know the spatial patterns of voting behavior in 2011 West Bengal assembly election.

II. To study the district wise situational analysis of 2011 assembly election.

III. To analysis the result of 2011 assembly election in West Bengal with the voter margin.

IV. To study the participation of electorate, candidates and voter turnout during election.

4. Data Base and Methodology

The present study is mainly based on secondary source of data. The secondary data have

been taken from- the electoral data for 2011 collected from the results on the assembly election

published by Election Commission of India, New Delhi, finding from surveys conducted by the

Centre for the study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi, Electoral maps and voting data, chief

electoral office, Vidhan Sabha library, Kolkata.

Study Area

West Bengal is located in the eastern

part of the country and relatively more

developed and prosperous region. It is bounded

to the north by Sikkim and the country of

Bhutan, north-east by Assam, east by the

country of Bangladesh, south by Bay of Bengal,

south-west by Orissa and west by Jharkhand

and Bihar and north-west by the country of

Nepal. . It lies between 85° 50’ and 89° 50’ east

longitude, and 21° 10’ and 27° 38’ north

latitude. The state has a total area of 88,752 Sq.

kms. (34,267 sq mile) with a total population of

about 91,347,736 persons (2011). The state has

been divided into 3 sub-division and 19

districts. In the 2011 assembly election, West Bengal has 294 assembly constituencies, 68 are

reserved for scheduled caste candidates and 16 are reserved for scheduled tribe candidates and

remaining 210 for general candidates. In this election total electorates was 5,62,06,476 and out of

which 2,94,81,750 are male electorates and 2,67,24,726 are female electorates.

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5. Electoral Pattern of West Bengal Assembly Election 2011

It was 15th

assembly election of West Bengal in 2011 was held on April18 and May 10 and

has 294 seats of the vidhan sabha. The Trinomool Congress won an absolute majority of seats. This

was one of the first election of the state where recorded highest nearly 85% vote polling. The

election also indicate the defeat for the longest serving democratically elected Communist

government in the world after the 34 years rule of the Left Front government, the stage was set for a

straight fight between the incumbent Left Front and the TMC-Congress alliance. The BJP contested

the election alone. By wining 227 out of the total of 294 seats, the TMC-Congress combine reduced

the Left Front to mere 62 seats. The loss for the LF was less in rural areas; however it suffered a lot

in the semi-urban and urban constituencies. The TMC alliance was ahead of the LF even in rural

constituencies, but its lead was less in rural constituencies compare to urban constituencies.

Budhadeb Bhattacharya became the first CM since 1977 to loss his seat in the assembly election in

2011.

West Bengal has 294 assembly constituencies in 2011, out of which 68 are reserved for

scheduled caste candidates and 16 are reserved for scheduled tribe candidates remaining 210 for

general candidates. The polling was spread in six phase between 18 April and 10 May.

Figure 1: Study Area - West Bengal Administration Division 2011

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Table 1: Electoral Pattern of West Bengal Assembly Election 2011

S. No. Date No. of Constituencies

Phase-1 18 April 54

Phase-2 22 April 50

Phase-3 27 April 75

Phase-4 3 May 63

Phase-5 7 May 38

Phase-6 10 May 11

Counting 13 May 294 Source: Election Commission of India

In 2011 West Bengal assembly election has three major groups of Party alliance that is

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) includes All India Trinomool Congress (AITMC), Indian

National Congress (INC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Socialist Unity Centre of India

(Communist), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. Left Front (LF) includes Communist Party of India

(Marxist), Revolutionary Socialist Party, Revolutionary Communist Party of India, Marxist Forward

Bloc, Samajwadi Party, Democratic Socialist Party and National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

includes two parties such as Bharatiya Janata Party, Gorkha Janmukhi Morcha.

Table: 2 Summary Electoral Participation- Electorate, Turnout and Number of Candidates compared to

the Assembly Election (2006)

Assembly Election 2011 Change from 2006

Total Electorate 5,62,06,476 +16.7

Male Electorate 2,94,81,750 +16.8

Female Electorate 2,67,24,726 +16.6

Total Turnout 84.8% +2.9

Male Turnout 84.4% +2

Female Turnout 84.5% +3.7

Number of Candidates 1,792 +8.3 Source: Election Commission of India

Table 2 represents the electoral participation of 2011 assembly election in West Bengal that change

from 2006 assembly election. This table shows that the number of electorate and candidates are

increase 16.7% and 8.3% respectively from 2006 assembly election. Similarly this table also leads

that the voter turnout increases than previous election. This is recorded the highest voting turnout in

the history of assembly elections in West Bengal. In the same way in 2011 assembly election, male

(84.4%) and female (84.5%) voting turnout also increase 2% and 3.7% respectively from 2006

assembly election.

Table 3: Category analysis-Turnout and Performance of major Alliances and Parties by Reserved and

General Constituencies. Category Total

Seats

Turnout

(%)

Left Front TMC+ BJP Others

Seats

Won

Vote

%

Seats

Won

Vote

%

Seats

Won

Vote

%

Seats

Won

Vote

%

SC 68 87.6 20 44.4 48 47.8 0 4.0 0 3.8

ST 16 85.4 10 40.0 5 36.0 0 6.3 1 17.7

General 210 83.9 32 40.0 174 49.5 0 3.9 4 6.6

Total 294 84.8 62 41.1 227 48.4 0 4.1 5 6.5

Source: Election Commission of India

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It is clear from the above table 4 that in 2011 assembly election in West Bengal TMC+ won

majority of seats 174 out of 210 in general constituencies. But LF won half of the total seats in

reserved constituencies. From the past, left Front always won majority of seats in reserved

constituencies as compared to the general constituencies. This table also shows that the TMC+ won

only 53 seats in reserved constituencies that proved TMC+ have a little advantage in reserved

constituencies.

Table 5: Summary Result (2011)-seats contested, seats won & votes % , Vote Swing since 2006

Seats

contested

Seats

won

Gain/loss

of seats since 2006

Vote-

Share%

Vote % per

Seat Contested

Vote Swing

since 2006%

Left Front(LF) 294 62 -173 41.05 41.05 -9.13

CPI 14 2 -6 1.84 38.55 -0.07

CPI(M) 213 40 -136 30.08 41.25 -7.05

RSP 23 7 -13 2.96 40.38 -0.75

AIFB 34 11 -12 4.80 41.55 -0.86

WBSP 5 1 -3 0.74 43.56 -0.15

RCPI(RB) 2 0 0 0.23 32.80 +0.23

DSP 2 1 0 0.35 45.19 -0.01

RJD 1 0 -1 0.05 19.65 -0.03

TMC+ 294 227 +176 48.35 48.35 +7

AITC 226 184 +154 38.93 49.97 +12.29

INC 65 42 +21 9.08 43.57 -5.63

NCP 1 0 0 0.03 7.11 -0.16

SUCI 30(2) 1 +1 0.31 47.42 +0.31

BJP 289 0 0 4.06 4.13 +2.13

GJM 3 3 +3 0.72 79.46 +0.72

Independents 400 2 -2 3.29 NA -0.50

Others 482 0 -4 2.53 NA -0.22

Table 5 represents the seats contested, seats won, votes secured by major parties in alliance

in 2011 assembly election in West Bengal as compared to the 2006 assembly election. The TMC +

wining 227 seats out of a 294 seats and LF won only 62 seats out of total 294 seats contested. The

BJP which contested 289 seats could not manage to win even a single seat. The TMC+ got a

Decisive lead of 7.4% over the LF in term of vote share, but the Left Front still managed to secure

4% of total votes polled. It also shows that TMC’s performance was better than its alliance and the

congress. On an average, it got about 49% of votes polled in the seats it contested.

Table 6: District wise analysis of major parties result

District Name Total Seats TMC+ Left Front Others

Coach Behar 9 5 4 0

Jalpaiguri 12 6 5 1

Darjeeling 6 3 0 3

UttarDinajpur 9 5 3 1

DakshinDinajpur 6 5 1 0

Maldaha 12 9 3 0

Murshidabad 22 15 7 0

Nadia 17 14 3 0

N-24 Paraganas 33 29 4 0

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S-24 Paraganas 31 27 4 0

Kolkata 11 11 0 0

Howra 16 16 0 0

Hooghly 18 16 2 0

Purb Medinipur 16 16 0 0

Paschimmedinipu 19 10 9 0

Purulia 9 7 2 0

Bankura 12 9 3 0

Bardhaman 25 16 9 0

Birbhum 11 8 3 0

Total 294 227 62 5 Source: Election Commission of India

It is notable from above

mentioned table that the people of

West Bengal rejected the Left

Front in every district. It is also

sadness for left Front is that they

are not even able to win a single

seat in four districts in West

Bengal, those districts are

Darjeeling, Kolkata, Howrah, and

Purba Medinipur. Left Front

performance is not good that they

did not get a double digit figure in

any district of Bengal. In the

district of Bardhaman and Paschim

Medinipur, they have won 9 seats

each which is the highest scores of

LF. So left Front won 62 seats out

of 294 seats with a six party

alliance. But the table also shows

that TMC+ has a good performance

in every district of West Bengal

in2011assembly election.

Table 7: Party wise Summary

Party Name Seats

Trinomool Congres + 227

Left Front 62

Bharatiya Janata Party 00

Independent/ Others 05

Total 294

Figure 2: District wise Analysis-West Bengal Assembly Election Result (2011) Source: Chief Electoral Officer, Kolkata

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Figure 3: Party Wise Summary: Assembly Election 2011(% ) Source: Chief Electoral Officer, Kolkata

6. Results and Findings

After the 34 years in power the Left Front was headed the government of West Bengal. But it was

Trinomool Congress that put up a spectacular show in the election battle for the 294 seats in

assembly election. After the result of 2011 assembly election that trends to showed a clear end of the

Left Front rule. In this election TMC + have a great performance they won 227 seats out of 294 seats

but Left Front cannot maintain their historic win in West Bengal assembly election. Lastly they

manage 62 seats out of 294 seats. This was one of the first election of the state where recorded

highest nearly 85% voting polled. This election also showed the increase number of electorates,

candidates and voting turnout that is also among male and female. One of the most important point

to notable that LF won half of the total seats in reserved constituencies. It means that they have good

performance in reserved constituencies than the general constituencies. But TMC have the opposite

position they have good performance in general constituencies. In the district wise analysis we find

that the people of West Bengal not accepted the Left Front in every district, therefore LF could not

maintain their historic win in Bengal.

7. Conclusion

The 2011 assembly election witnessed the remarkable success of Trinomool Congress, as a new

political party. The Left Front which was in power in the West Bengal government for the last 30

years faced a major defeat, winning only 62 seats out of the 294 assembly constituencies. This

election recorded nearly 85% turnout vote poll that is the highest turnout in the history of assembly

election in West Bengal. The previous highest turnout was 82.9% in 1996. There are also increases

in the number of contestant even higher than the voting turnout. The total number of candidates in

2011 assembly election was 1792 that also change from 2006 assembly election that was 8.3%

increase. The Left Front came to power in West Bengal since in 1977. There was a major change in

alliance this time as far as the one led by TMC was concerned. In 2006, the TMC was part of the

NDA which also consisted mainly of the TMC itself and of the Bharatiya Janata Party. This time the

TMC led alliance also included the Indian National Congress (INC), Nationalist Congress Party

(NCP) and Socialist Unity. However the Left Front retained its alliance as in 2006 assembly

election, except NCP. The BJP contested the election alone in 2011 assembly election. So, this

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election was a symbol of defeat of the world’s longest (34 years) running democratically elected

Communist government that was Left Front, and a remarkable success of Trinomool Congress.

8. References

[1] Amani,K.Z,(1973),Electoral Geography and Indian Election, Geographical Review of India

[2] Busteed,M.A(1975),Geography of Voting Behaviour,London,Oxford University Press

[3] Barnay West(2006),Voting Techniques and Residual Ballots in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections

[4] Bhattacharya,Dwaipayam,(2004),’’West Bengal:Parmanent Incumbency an and Political Instability

[5] Cox,K.R,’’The Voting Decisions in a Spatial Context,’’progress in geography

[6] Das Gupta,Ranjit (1998), Election in West Bengal:A major setback for left front’’

[7] Demko, G. J. and W.B. Wood, eds. (1999). Recording the World: geopolitical perspectives on the

twenty-first century.2nd

ed. Boulder, Colo, Westview Press.

[8] Dikshit,K.D.(1997),Political Geography,New Delhi,Tata,Mcgraw Hill

[9] Economic and Political Weekly, June 18, 2011, Vol XIVI.

[10] Election Commission of India, Assembly Election, New Delhi.

[11] Johnston, R. J. (2005) Anglo-American electoral geography: same roots and same goals, but different

means and ends? Professional Geographer 57(4).

[12] Johnston and Pattie(2007) ‘‘Putting voters in their place: Geography and Elections in Great Britain.

Oxford, Oxford University Press

[13] Mark Blacksell,(2006),Political Geography,U.S.A

[14] Taylor,P.J. and Johnston,R.J,(1979),Geography of Election.

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Electoral Geography: Spatial Analysis Of Voting Patterns ... · organization, conduct and result of elections. It is also concerned with the study of the spatial voting pattern/ behavior