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Electric Vehicles: The Melodrama
of the coming 20 years.
Overview and the future of the sector.
Dr. Peter Harrop, Chairman
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Helping you profit from emerging technologies
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About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides clarity on emerging technologies
Global and timely analysis through:
Research Reports
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Since 1999 we have served clients
in 80 countries
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IDTechEx at Advanced Engineering 2018
Day OneThe Rapidly Evolving Market for
Autonomous VehiclesDAY 1 (31ST OCTOBER) 13:00 | AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING FORUM
Presented By: Aman Atak, Technology Analyst
Additive Manufacturing in Aerospace &
Defence: Facts & Forecast DAY 1 (31ST OCTOBER) 15:00 | AERO ENGINEERING FORUM
Presented By: Dr Bryony Core, Technology Analyst
5G Enable The Industrial IoT:
Market Evaluation & ImplementationDAY 1 (31ST OCTOBER) 15:30 | CONNECTED MANUFACTURING FORUM
Presented By: Dr Luyun Jiang, Technology Analyst
Electric Vehicles:
The Melodrama of the coming 20 yearsDAY 2 (1ST NOVEMBER) 11:45 | AUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING FORUM
Presented By: Dr. Peter Harrop, Chairman
Multifunctional Composites:
Technical Overview & Market AnalysisDAY 2 (1ST NOVEMBER) 12:00 | ADVANCED MATERIAL FORUM
Presented By: Dr Richard Collins, Senior Technology Analyst
Tethered Drones Generating kW-MW:
Airborne Wind EnergyDAY 2 (1ST NOVEMBER) 14:45 | AERO ENGINEERING FORUM
Presented By: Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman
Day Two
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Electric Vehicles 2018-2038:
Forecasts, Analysis and
Opportunitieswww.IDTechex.com/ev
Electric Trucks and Delivery
Vans 2018-2028www.IDTechex.com/truck
48V Mild Hybrid Vehicles
2018-2028www.IDTechex.com/48v
Electric Vehicles and
Autonomous Vehicles in
Mining 2018-2028www.IDTechex.com/mining
Electric Motors for Electric
Vehicles 2018-2028www.IDTechex.com/motors
Electrically Smart Roads
2018-2028www.IDTechex.com/smartroad
Electric Buses 2018-2038 www.IDTechEx.com/buses
Electric Vehicles Research
For full details and list of available reports visit www.IDTechEx.com
Composites 2017-2027:
Innovations, Opportunities,
Market Forecastswww.IDTechEx.com/composites
Electric UAV Drones:
Autonomous, Energy
Independent 2017-2027www.IDTechEx.com/drones
Electric Boats and Ships
2017-2027www.IDTechEx.com/boats
Additive Manufacturing and
Lightweight Materials for Aerospace
and Defense 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/lightaero
3D Printing 2018-2028:
Technology and Market
Analysiswww.IDTechEx.com/3d
Agricultural Robots and Drones
2018-2038: Technologies,
Markets and Playerswww.IDTechEx.com/agri
Airborne Wind Energy
(AWE) 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/awe
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Off Grid Zero-emission
Electricity 2018-2038: New
Markets, New Technology
Roadmapwww.IDTechEx.com/offgrid
Redox Flow Batteries 2018-
2028: Markets, Trends,
Applicationswww.IDTechEx.com/redox
Solid-State and Polymer Batteries
2017-2027: Technology, Markets,
Forecastswww.IDTechEx.com/ssb
Structural Electronics 2018-
2028: Applications,
Technologies, Forecastswww.IDTechEx.com/structural
Supercapacitor Materials
and Technology Roadmap
2019-2039www.IDTechEx.com/scmats
Supercapacitor
Technologies and
Markets 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/supercaps
Energy Storage Research
For full details and list of available reports visit www.IDTechEx.com
Advanced Li-ion & Beyond
Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/AdvLithium
Battery Elimination in
Electronics and Electrical
Engineering 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/nobatts
Flexible, Printed and Thin
Film Batteries 2016-2026:
Technologies, Markets,
Playerswww.IDTechEx.com/flex
Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028www.IDTechEx.com/lithium
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The year 2017 was the year of the 100k’s in Plug in EV sales
Six automotive groups achieved
more than 100,000 vehicle sales per
year. Half of them are in China.
Global sales achieved more than 1
million Plug in EV (BEV and PHEV)
units in 2017.
Best selling models 2017
Sales
in k
1 BAIC EC-Series 78
2 Tesla Model S 55
3 Nissan Leaf 47
4 Tesla Model X 47
5 Zhidou D2 42
6 Renault Zoe 32
7 BMW i3 31
8 BYD Song 31
9 Chevrolet Bolt 28
10 Chery eQ 27
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China and Europe are now the largest
markets for Plug in EV sales.
HEV sales have increased in Japan and
Europe (dieselgate effect?), but no growth
achieved in the USA. Global 2017 HEV
sales over the peak of 2014.
Global Plug in EV (BEV+PHEV) and HEV sales distribution
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xEV growth in the UK
mostly in HEVs and
PHEVs. In 2018 the
Government reduced
subsidies.
Source: SMMT
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In 2017, 71 million passenger
cars were sold globally.
During the same year 26
million commercial vehicles
CV were sold.
North American passenger car
PC market in decline, moving
to SUV and trucks.
Passenger car market in
Europe presents steady
growth (3% H1 18 vs 17).
Strong growth is coming from
China passenger car market
and the Global Commercial
Vehicle market.
The current state of the automotive sector
(petrol based)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PC NA PC EU PC RoW PC CN World CV sales Source: OICA 2017
Internet
shopping helps!
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48V mild hybrids will peak at a huge 14-
18 million cars a year. This basic form is
now seen as a replacement for diesel
alone in meeting CO2 targets/ fuel
economy without diesel’s NOx,
particulates, bad name. In later forms it
can replace HEVs at much lower cost as
it will have pure electric modes by then.
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Source:Continental
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VW and IDTechEx views of 2031 48V MH technologyIDTechEx believes that pure electric vehicles will crush further new 48V technologies by 2031 but VW speculates as below.
Source: Volkswagen
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What about the following next 20 years?
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China
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Nigeria
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?
Peak Car and Power Train Evolution
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Car BEV
Car PHEV
Car 48V
Car HEV
Car ICE
Th
ou
san
d u
nits
Peak car
Peak 48V car
Peak diesel
car
Peak ICE
car
Peak electric
car?
GOOD NEWS!
As cars suffer,
many new EV
markets open up –
Personal aircraft,
robot vacuum
cleaner, grass
cutting, delivery….
Exoskeletons,
bus-taxis,
microEVs,
motorbikes, boats,
Autonomous
Underwater
Vehicles….
Peak car is primarily caused by people moving to cities which
discourage and even ban private cars in order to cope. In
2050, 70-80% of people in cities (WHO & UN)
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Electric Vehicles, the whole picture
E-Bus9%
Light Duty
Trucks10%
Medium and heavy duty trucks
8%
Car67%
2 wheel2%
In 2028 the electric vehicle
market will reach a value
of over $1.9 trillion.
33% of the future market
value of electric vehicle
will not be in the on road
automotive sector.
others
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❑ Besides the effect of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, electric buses is the most promising for urban
transit due to the space occupied by cars and bicycles to transport the same number of passengers.
Electric buses and Light Electric EVs: future urban mobility
Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 people by bus, bike and car
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Source AVL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Heavy trucks(>15 ton)
Light andmedium trucks
Buses (longdistance
traveling)
Buses (localpublic
transport)
Agriculturemachines,Tractors
Constructionvehicles (off
highway)
Railwayapplications
Stationaryindustrial
transmissions
Powertrain cost reduction Development time reduction NVH (noise & vibration)Hybrid development Emission optimization Fuel efficiencyHigher torque / more power
No
min
ati
on
s
Drivers for electrification by market segment
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Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles
Source: AVL List
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Electric powertrain options for trucks
Source: ATRI
As the table to the right shows, several
early entrants have been developing
electric powertrains, although not many of
them are getting the publicity the Tesla
Semi got in 2017.
According to ATRI, classes 3-6 are the
ones that can benefit the most from
powertrain electrification.
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Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIEV getting all electricity by harvesting external energy such as
sun, using on-board equipment
Plug in
hybrid
with fuel
cell or
gas
turbine
range
extender
and long
electric
range
Pure
electric
short
range
Pure
electric
medium
range
slow
charging
Pure
electric
medium
range
fast
charging
Pure
electric
long
range
fast
charging
Range is
for a
often longer than
conventional car
Mild ICE
hybrid
with little
or no
electric
range
Plug in
ICE
hybrid
with
limited
electric
range
Plug in
hybrid
with fuel
cell or
gas
turbine
range
extender
and long
electric
range
Pure
electric
short
range
Pure
electric
medium
range
slow
charging
Pure
electric
medium
range
fast
charging
Pure
electric
long
range
fast
charging
Range is
for a
often longer than
conventional car
Mild ICE
hybrid
with little
or no
electric
range
Plug in
ICE
hybrid
with
limited
electric
range
IDTechEx assesses the potential of future technology scenarios
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Energy Independent Electric Vehicles: sun, wind or bothSee IDTechEx report, “Energy Independent Electric Vehicles 2018-2028”
Toyota PHEV 2017 Solar roof has poor range. Solar body next Lightyear above on sale 2019. Huge solar range
Source: Toyota, Lightyear
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Peter Harrop
