ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN Summary Slides

March 2016

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This slide deck was prepared by Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several inputs into the activity Strategy to Scale-Up Renewable Energy in Pakistan [P146251], which was implemented over the period January 2015 to May 2016. The activity was funded and supported by the Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, and was led by Oliver Knight (Senior Energy Specialist) and Anjum Ahmad (Senior Energy Specialist). The slide deck provides a summary of the methodology, results and conclusions from a study to assess electricity access in Pakistan, focusing on the surveys that were undertaken. It accompanies a separate report that describes the methodology and approach. The survey data can be downloaded from The World Bank s Energy & Extractives Open Data Platform.

Copyright © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK

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Internet: www.worldbank.org

This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and

conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive

Directors, or the governments they represent.

The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any

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do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the

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ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN

PEOPLE.PRINCIPLES.PROSPERITY

March 2 0 1 6

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INTRODUCTION

Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research carried out an approximately 8,500 strong household survey to measure the energy access rates, consumption patterns and economic & psychographic drivers to ‘energy relevant’ behaviours.

As highlighted in the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the energy sector is one of three priorities for the WB’s engagement in Pakistan and this activity is a World Bank’s (WB) initiative to better understand the opportunities, challenges and policy barriers relating to the scale-up of renewable energy in Pakistan and has been funded by the Asia Sustainable & Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by the WB.

The objective of the research was to improve our understanding of the ‘energy poverty’ in Pakistan & gain ‘actionable’ insights into needs & behavioral drivers for energy consumption.

The specific objectives of the research:

• To carry out a country-wide survey on electricity access primarily utilizing remote sampling techniques to deliver a snapshot of electricity access in Pakistan that covers the level of electricity access by household (availability and use), awareness of available solutions, and willingness to pay, with sufficient granularity to make statistically relevant comparisons

• To inform ongoing policy discussions, programs, and investments aimed at increasing access to electricity in Pakistan, by providing reliable baseline data to public and private sector stakeholders;

Survey Delivery Medium

Although the initial intention was to use SMS (short messaging service) and telephonic interviews as the primary survey delivery vehicles – after deliberation that face to face Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) surveys be used as a primary delivery medium to improve the quality and relevance of the outputs from this activity .

METHODOLOGY

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METHODOLOGY

Approach

In order to collect the needed information for the access to electricity analysis, awareness of alternative

solutions and willingness to pay, data was collected amongst 8,461 households and used CAPI/ Face-to-Face interviews.

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WHAT DOES THE SURVEY COVER?

Profiling

• Basic Demographics

• Need based profiling

Energy Access

• Grid Access

• Duration

• Reliability

• Legality

• Affordability

• Safety

Alternate Solutions

• Awareness

• Usage

• Experience

• Relevance

• Willingness to Pay(WTP)

Multi-tier Framework for Energy Access – WB, UN SE4ALL

The following three thematic areas were covered by the survey(s).

1. Access to electricity: Get an understanding of the type of electricity sources currently used (grid and off-grid), for which activities (studying, cooking etc), hours of usage per day, the satisfaction levels (withregards to usage, reliability, availability) and the expenditures (upfront and recurrent) and costs ofdifferent electricity solutions.

2. Awareness on alternative solutions: determine to what extent households are aware of alternativeenergy solutions (solar, off-grid solutions) available in the market.

3. Willingness to pay (WTP): getting an understanding of the amounts households would be willing to payfor an alternative energy solutions and cross checking this with their current spending, ability to pay andsatisfaction levels.

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RESEARCH SETUP

CAPI Survey: Using mobile phone surveying technology & laptops:

• Data collected was immediately uploaded to the database, ready for analysis.

• Only questions relevant to respondent were shown

• Simplified and speedy conducting of the survey

• Possibility to monitor collected data through database

• System could be used offline too

• GPS data was collected (where android smartphones were employed)

A survey pilot was conducted and tested by Foresight Research before fielding it.

Dedicated Trainings: In-depth trainings on the survey, CAPI methodology, quality assurance

were conducted by Foresight Research under the supervision and support of Enclude’s technical team. Apart from the internal trainings conducted for Foresight Interviewers, 4 regional trainings were conducted at the following locations:

• Multan (Punjab)

• Peshawar (KPK)

• Karachi (Sindh)

• Quetta (Baluchistan)

Data Quality & Control: • CAPI scripting & built-in software checks

• a separate and independent team of quality assurance

• UTrack, a location tracking system to ensure the authenticity of its interviews (where used).

• Accompanied interviewing, spot checking and back checking also employed.

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UNDERSTANDING THE SAMPLING

Where possible each town was divided into 5 sectors (Center, North, East, West and South) of approximately equivalent area. In each sector, certain number of “neighborhoods” was determined & was treated as a statistical unit in which the respondents were contacted. This approach was loosely followed for small rural communities due to evident constraints. Within the ‘neighborhood’, interviewers were instructed to contact the households while walking from the pre-specified starting point & following the right hand rule . The accompanying figure illustrates this approach.

For this survey, after consultation with the WB team, it was decided to employ ‘alternate’ channels for survey delivery and respondent recruitment to: 1. Cost effectively boost sample size 2. Reach out to rural areas 3. Gain insights into leveraging alternate channels for future WBG research projects

For this the household panel maintained by Foresight Research was supplemented by approximately 80 rural clusters through the Digital Hubs being operated by Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund’s (PPAF). Enclude and Foresight evaluated and trained the staff from the Digital Hubs (DH) to effectively deliver on this project and in accordance with strict quality control instituted for this activity.

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DEFINING URBAN, PERI-URBAN & RURAL

For the purpose of sampling and analysis, the following 3 segments were used based on their geographical location and sizing:

• Urban Areas: These consist of top metro towns typically with populations greater than 100,000

• Peri-Urban Areas: These consist of settlements and towns peripheral to urban areas and/or large towns with populations greater than 10,000 but less that 100,000

• Rural Areas: These will consist of small villages typically with populations less than 10,000 The Urban household population is summarized in the following table:

Strata Strata Description

(Population of Cities)

Number of

Cities in

Universe

Total

Population

Strata Share in Total

Urban Population

(%)

I More than 4 million 2 24,379,533 33%

II Between 0.5 to 4 million 14 19,692,725 27%

III Between 0.1 to .5 million 71 14,278,016 20%

IV Less than .1 million 388 14,731,057 20%

475 73,081,331 100%

Foresight Estimates based on Economic Survey Pakistan 2014, Census Reports 1998 & 1981, PDS

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HOUSEHOLD PANEL: FORESIGHT

Understanding the Household Panel: Foresight Research maintains Pakistan’s largest household panel

consisting of over 7,500 households. Given the project’s requirement to selectively recruit households to better understand the ‘energy poor’ and also have a significant representation of the affluent households required a hybrid recruitment through an existing household panel and supplementing it with recruitment in geographical locations that were likely to be suffering from unmet energy demands. The following tables detail the ‘universe’ of the household panel from which the panel was drawn for this project.

Provincial Region Peri Urban Rural Urban Grand Total

BALUCHISTAN 269 176 155 600

NWFP 537 294 230 1,061

PUNJAB 1,029 846 2,368 4,243

SIND 269 329 998 1,596

Grand Total 2,104 1,645 3,751 7,500

Region SEC A SEC B SEC C SEC D SEC E Total

BALUCHISTAN 148 151 154 128 19 600

NWFP 253 272 278 170 88 1,061

PUNJAB 1,126 1,093 1,143 592 289 4,243

SIND 466 382 414 213 121 1,596

Grand Total 1,993 1,898 1,989 1,103 517 7,500

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PPAF DIGITAL HUBS

Thematic Area Training Outcomes

Basic Research Concepts The trainees imparted with research concepts enabling them in understanding and fielding basic

surveys with the objective of ensuring a good quality research output

Survey Techniques & Best

Practices The trainees able to understand survey flows, coding, special instructions and appreciate various

dimensions of a ‘well conducted survey’

ICT & primary research Comfort with delivering surveys (and uploading results) through specific digital mediums and through

the resources available at the Digital Hubs.

Fielding a Survey – An Exercise The trainees were familiarized with various aspects of interviewing and engaging interviewees –

allowing them to effectively field surveys.

Quality Assurance Familiarized with various aspects that constitute a ‘high quality research’ and what ensures ‘data

integrity’. Able to digitally transmit data to the ‘client’ as well.

Details

Digital Hubs Engaged All 80 existing digital hubs are expected to take part. Fielding of the survey is planned as a

‘compensated’ activity.

Geographical Distribution of

DH Punjab – 21 Baluchistan – 10

KPK – 20 Sindh – 29

Sample Total targeted sample: 8,000 Sample per DH: Between 100 to 125

Actual Sample: 5,581

Understanding the Digital Hubs: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) set up 80 digital hubs

under their LEED programme in rural communities of Pakistan to pilot an innovative model of social enterprises that seeks to boost economic activity through the provision on ICT services to rural communities. Enclude in partnership with PPAF was able to train educated DH staff members to effectively deliver on this project. A list of the 80 locations is provided as an annexures. The following table summarizes the training themes and outcomes from our capacity building of the DH staff.

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ITAL H

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S: TH

E 80

CLU

STERS

80 Rural Clusters – PPAF DIGITAL HUBS

Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province

1 Noor Pur Machiwala Rajanpur Punjab 41 Talhata Mansehra KPK

2 Gulwala Muzaffargarh Punjab 42 Nangarparkar Tharparker Sindh

3 Sharif Chajra Muzaffargarh Punjab 43 Bhetoor Ghotki Sindh

4 Haji Pur Rajanpur Punjab 44 Ali Bagh Ghotki Sindh

5 Umer Kot Rajanpur Punjab 45 Ibrahim hyderi Karachi Sindh

6 Tatar Wala Rajanpur Punjab 46 Mahar Thatta Sindh

7 Aali Wala D.G Khan Punjab 47 Sukhupur Thatta Sindh

8 Paighan D.G Khan Punjab 48 Karam Pur Thatta Sindh

9 Vahova D.G Khan Punjab 49 Kothi Thatta Sindh

10 Miani Bhawalpur Punjab 50 Gharo Thatta Sindh

11 Jalalabad Bhawalpur Punjab 51 Dhabeji Thatta Sindh

12 Mari Sheik shajra Bhawalpur Punjab 52 Chuhar Jamali Thatta Sindh

13 Toba Qalandar Shah Bahawalnagar Punjab 53 Ladiyoon Thatta Sindh

14 Pir Sikander Bahawalnagar Punjab 54 Googani Thatta Sindh

15 Noor Sir Bahawalnagar Punjab 55 Hoat wassan Sanghar & Thatta Sindh

16 Aulakh Thal Kalan Layyah Punjab 56 Shahmardanabad Sanghar & Thatta Sindh

17 Jaman Shah Layyah Punjab 57 kumbdarhon Sanghar & Thatta Sindh

18 Ladhana Layyah Punjab 58 Maldasi Sanghar & Thatta Sindh

19 Ghazanfar Garh Muzaffargarh Punjab 59 KAR Shah Sanghar & Thatta Sindh

20 Jhalarian Muzaffargarh Punjab 60 Bhugra Memon Badin Sindh

21 TBC Muzaffargarh Punjab 61 Abdullah Shah Badin Sindh

22 Khander khan Khel Bannu KPK 62 Ahmed Rajo Badin Sindh

23 Marmandi Azim Lukimarwat KPK 63 Kadhan Badin Sindh

24 Komila Kohistan KPK 64 Dai Jarkas Badin Sindh

25 Kuza Bandi Swat KPK 65 Khairpur Gambo Badin Sindh

26 Paimal Batagram KPK 66 Ahori Badin Sindh

27 Biari Batagram KPK 67 Islamkot Tharparker Sindh

28 Alpuri Shangla KPK 68 Pellu Tharparker Sindh

29 Lilownai Shangla KPK 69 Manjthi Tharparker Sindh

30 Kuz Kana Shangla KPK 70 Dhabhro Tharparker Sindh

31 Ganori Dir Upper KPK 71 Kawas Ziarat Balochistan

32 Kuz Abakhel Swat KPK 72 Ziarat Ziarat Balochistan

33 Hazara Swat KPK 73 Kach Ziarat Balochistan

34 Sazine Kohistan KPK 74 Zindra Ziarat Balochistan

35 Jijal Kohistan KPK 75 Shah Noorani Khuzdar Balochistan

36 Shahpur Shangla KPK 76 Rodh Malazai Pishin Balochistan

37 Kala Kalay Swat KPK 77 Dilsora Pishin Balochistan

38 Sararogha (SWA) South Wazirstan Agency KPK 78 Sarawan Kharan Balochistan

39 Sararogha South Wazirstan Agency KPK 79 Joda-e-Kalat Kharan Balochistan

40 Kernol Mansehra KPK 80 Tohmulk Kharan Balochistan

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SAMPLE & DELIVERY

Recruited Household Panel

(N=2,881)

Rural, Urban, Peri-urban

Formal trained interviewers

Largely female respondents

Informal Rural Clusters - PPAF

(N=5,580)

~ 80 Rural Clusters

Specially trained local resources

Dedicated technical support

4 Provinces

8.6k Households

CAPI Interviews

>70 Union

Councils

>80 locations

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SAMPLE & DELIVERY

Punjab 3,033

Urban/ Peri-Urban 909

Rural 2,124

Sindh 2,127

Urban/ Peri-Urban 341

Rural 1,786

Baluchistan 1,528

Urban/ Peri-Urban 195

Rural 1,333

KPK 1,773

Urban/ Peri-Urban 446

Rural 1,327

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SAMPLE & DELIVERY

DATA FINDINGS

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FILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE

House Type

House Size

# of Rooms

Urban & Peri-Urban Rural

Single Storey 61% Two Storey %

57% Hut

38% Single Storey

Less than 6 50% More than 9 16%

50% Less than 6

21% More than 9

Less than 2 22% More than 4 50%

60% Less than 2

17% More than 4

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FILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE

SEC

Occupation

Extended Family

Urban & Peri-Urban Rural

SEC D & E 45% Avg. Income 32k

84% SEC D & E

19k Avg. Income

Agri & Related 8% Salaried Employee 32%

78% Agri & Related

76% Skilled/ Unskilled

Extended Family 41% 37% Extended Family

Access to Grid Electricity Skewed across provinces

Lower grid access in rural areas

AC

CESS TO

ELEC

TRIC

ITY ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

Grid electricity primary source Followed by local mini-grid,

batteries & solar energy 97%

Years using Primary Source Urban areas <16

Only 6% with less than 10 yrs >30

Between 81%

to 86%

3.5 km

From the grid (HH with no access) 9km in Rural areas

Grid access too costly in no access areas

Baluchistan

Sindh

Punjab

KPK

GR

ID AC

CESS

Access to national grid

Map of access to the national grid per province and region

Access to Grid Electricity Higher representation of

‘Rural Areas’

Between 81%

to 86%

* Correcting for sampling bias

EN

ERG

Y CO

NSU

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TION

PA

TTERN

S ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

Lighting Items & Basic Space Cooling

High penetration of communication items

Lighting, cooling major household needs

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Non energy saver light bulb

Tube light

Light bulb - energy saver

Fan

Radio

Phone charger

Black and white TV

Color TV

Computer

Printer

Electric food processor

Electric cooking system

Microwave oven

Electric toaster

Air conditioner

Electric heater

Regularly used Owned

EN

ERG

Y CO

NSU

MP

TION

PA

TTERN

S ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

CO

NSTR

AIN

TS & U

NM

ET NEED

S CONSTRAINTS & UNMET NEEDS

Poor Satisfaction

Scores

• Only 11% satisfied

• Mainly the grid connected hh dissatisfied & mainly in the rural areas

Power Outages

• High duration but predictable

• Rural areas more affected

• Something on load shedding

Inefficient Lighting Sources

• Continued reliance on incandescent bulbs. Poor penetration of LED

Unpredictable interruptions main constraint of the primary source of electricity

Low voltage or fluctuations (47%) and unpredictable interruptions (44%) driving low statisfaction

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Extremely satisfied

Very satisfied

Neither satisfied nordissatisfied

Slightly dissatisfied

Extremely dissatisfied

Urban

Peri Urban

Rural

LO

AD S

HED

DIN

G

Load shedding

KPK: 83% More than 3 times

Punjab: 91% More than 3 times

Sindh: 73% Less than 6 times

Baluchitstan: 82% Less than 6 times

On average loadshedding takes place 3-6 times a day Rural and peri-urban areas similarly affected Punjab & KPK more adversely affected

Map of amount of load shedding per day

ELEC

TRIC

ITY USE A

ND A

VA

ILAB

ILITY Electricity usage and availability

2.06 Hours of

electricity available

between 6-10pm

2.53

4.00

3.30

2.74

Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh

3.17 Hours of non-natural light

used

Gap between availability (2.06 hours) and usage (3.17 hours) of electricity

ALTER

NA

TIVE E

NER

GY S

OU

RC

ES EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES

76% Interested in Alternative

Improved availability and affordability of electricity source driving high interest in alternative energy solutions (76%)

82% Need

improved availability

Rural High

interest for alternatives

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Availability (time)

Affordability

Cost savings

Long product life

Suitable for multiple uses

Easy to transport in case of moving

More reliable and better quality indoor light

Reduce space usage

Safety (fire hazard)

Improvement in health

Security (outside light)

ALTER

NA

TIVE E

NER

GY S

OU

RC

ES EXPLORING INTEREST IN ALTERNATIVES

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Rural

Peri Urban

Urban

no

yes

WILLIN

GN

ESS TO P

AY

Willingness versus Ability to Pay

Urban Highest

WTP

2,044Monthly

energy Bill in PKR

<10% Energy bill of monthly

income

523 Monthly

WTP Price Point

<3% WTP of monthly income

High interest in alternative energy solutions (76%) being held back by low WTP particularly in the rural areas and in Baluchistan province

PKR 0

PKR 5,000

PKR 10,000

PKR 15,000

PKR 20,000

PKR 25,000

Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh

Income WTP Current Energy bill

PKR 0

PKR 5,000

PKR 10,000

PKR 15,000

PKR 20,000

PKR 25,000

PKR 30,000

PKR 35,000

Rural Urban

Income WTP Energy bill

SO

LAR EN

ERG

Y Solar Awareness and usage

85% Trust Solar

Power

46% Know

someone using solar

16% Own a solar

product

63% Know where

to buy it

High awareness of what solar is and where to buy solar products Awareness low in urban areas (interestingly) High levels of trust in rural areas. Urban areas trust levels low (38%)

Map of hh owning a solar product (lantern or SHS)

DEM

AN

D D

RIV

ERS

DEMAND DRIVERS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Extremelysatisfied

Very satisfied Neither satisfiednor dissatisfied

Slightlydissatisfied

Extremelydissatisfied

yes, interested in alternatives no, not interested

Correlation between satisfaction levels and interest in alternatives

No correlation between amount of load shedding and satisfaction levels or interest in alternatives

No correlation between grid access and satisfaction

levels

Grid connectivity (or the lack of it) does not seem to have much influence on the satisfaction levels of households on their electricity source

Demand drivers particularly increased availability / longer hours of electricity source, even for those currently having high availability

CONCLUSIONS

ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

WILLINGNESS TO PAY

AWARENESS

CO

NC

LUSIO

NS

KEY CONCLUSIONS

HIGH awareness

& interest in alternatives (incl. solar)

Urban Highest

WTP

LOW WTP

523 PKR per months

<3% WTP of monthly income

16% solar

penetration rate

Although there is

demand for electricity that is available for longer hours (for instance

solar) the low WTP can make private sector delivery of

alternatives a challenge, mainly in

rural areas

>83% grid

High rural representation

53% Lighting /

cooling main household

needs

11% Satisfied

with current energy source

82% Availability

(hours) main demand

driver

SAMPLE VISUALIZATIONS – WORLD BANK OPEN DATA PLATFORM

SA

MP

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ALIZA

TION

S Household Spending Patterns

SA

MP

LE VISU

ALIZA

TION

S Monthly Electricity Spending Distribution

SA

MP

LE VISU

ALIZA

TION

S Household Grid Connectivity for the Sample

CO

NTA

CT IN

FOR

MA

TION

Contact Information:

Hassam Hussain

Consultant, Sustainable Business Practices hhussain@encludesolutions.com