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ELISA BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT
Dr Direk Limmathurotsakul, MD MSc PhD
Introduction: problems and solutions of imperfect Gold Standard
Introduction: culture is an imperfect gold standard for melioidosis
Introduction: culture is an imperfect gold standard for melioidosis
Parameters
Culture as a gold standard
Final Bayesian LCM
Prevalence 37 % 62 %
Culture
Sensitivity
100 % 60 %
Specificity
100 % 100 %
ELISA
Sensitivity
82 % 76 %
Specificity
73 % 98 %Limmathurotsakul et al (2010) PLoS ONE 5(8) e12485
Next Step: What is the proper cutoff for ELISA
• LCM estimate that true Se and Sp of ELISA were 76% and 98%
• Cut-off used was previously determined by conventional ROC
Next Step: What is the proper cutoff for ELISA
METHOD
• Bayesian latent class models (LCM) were applied to all possible cut-off values
• Sensitivity and specificity estimated from each cut-off value was used to plot unbiased ROC curves
Parameters
Bayesian LCM using biased cut-
off
Bayesian LCM using optimal
cut-off
ELISA
Se 76 % 81 %
Sp 98 % 96 %
RESULT
SUMMARY
• Cut-off determined by conventional method was biased towards misclassification of imperfect gold standard
• LCMs should be used to determine optimal cut-off
• ELISA could be furthered developed for use in the clinical setting with a reasonably high degree of accuracy
• Further evaluation of new diagnostic tests for melioidosis should be done with a carefully selected set of diagnostic tests and appropriate statistical models
How can general researchers apply Bayesian LCM to their own datasets
http://mice.tropmedres.ac
More information: PPI-37 (WMC2013)
END