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Emergency Management and Risk Analysis for Hazardous Materials Transport

Shashi Nambisan

Professor of Civil Engineering

Dept of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Transportation Research Center

UNLV

Seminar at the

Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering

Center for Transportation Research & Education

Iowa State University

November 5, 2004

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Emergency Management

• Disasters / Emergencies– Natural– Man Made– Epidemics

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Natural Disasters

• Earthquakes

• Fires

• Floods and Dam failures

• Hurricanes / Tornadoes

• Land slides / Mudslides

• Volcanoes

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Man Made Disasters

• Accidental, Intentional– Chemical releases, spills– Explosions– Radioactive: power plant– Transportation: air,

pipeline, road, rail, water

• Fire

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Emergency Management Phases

• Preparedness

• Response

• Recovery

• Mitigation

Transportation is always a factor

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Analyses to Support Emergency Management

• Hazard Analysis

• Risk Assessment

• Vulnerability Assessment

• Criticality Analysis

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Hazard or Risk? Vulnerable or Critical??

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Key Terms

• Susceptibility: How prone is a system to weaknesses

• Vulnerability: The susceptibility to losses due to exposure to hazard

• Reliability: The complement to vulnerability; describes adequate serviceability under the operating conditions encountered at a given time

• Resiliency: The ability to recover to normal or near normal state of operations

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Risk Assessment

• Risk Assessment =

f (Event, Probability, Consequence)– Probability of event “i”, Pi

– Consequence of events, Ci

– Risk of one event, Ri = Pi * Ci (?)• Other Models (Non-linear, Exponential, … )

– Risk of all events = Ri ?

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Vulnerability Assessment

• Analysis of a system for weaknesses

• Probability of an attack on the weaknesses

• Factors– Ease of access– Ability and time required to

“harden” the system / element

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Criticality Considerations

• Impacts on human life

• Environmental impacts

• Economic impacts

• Duration of impact

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Radioactive Materials Transport

• Nuclear Waste Policy Act (1982) & Amendments

• High Level Waste, Spent Nuclear Fuel

• Routing Issues– Public Safety– Emergency

Preparedness

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Background

• Nuclear Power / HLRW– Origins

• 76 power plants• 4 DOE facilities

• NWPA, NWPAA• Investigate Yucca Mountain as the Only Potential Site• Designated Yucca Mountain as THE repository site

– Transport Modes:• Highway• Rail• Combination of Both

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Us Reactor Sites With Hazmat Volumes

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Transport Related Issues

• Risk Analysis / Minimization– Population– Environment– Infrastructure– Emergency Response

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Population

• Resident• Non-Resident / Visitor

– Resort Corridor– Proximity to I-15 and Union Pacific RR Track– ~100,000 hotel rooms

• Special Populations– Schools– Hospitals, Health Care Facilities– Assisted Living Facilities– Prisons

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Environmental Issues

• F&F? – Plants & Animals– Habitats– Foraging Patterns– Migration Patterns

• Endangered, Threatened, …

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Infrastructure• Networks

– Transport– Utility

• Structural Adequacy– Carriage Way (Pavement / Track Structure)– Bridges, Tunnels

• Functional Adequacy– Load– Geometrics (Clearances)

• Impacts: Operations, Life Cycle Costs• System Safety• System Redundancy

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Emergency Response: Performance Indicators (MOEs)

• Incident assessment time• First responder time• First qualified responder time• Evacuation time• Extent of impact

– Population and classes of population– Area (square miles, number of blocks, towns, cities)– Environment

• Extent of “avoided” impact

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Risk Assessment

• Scenarios:– Routine Operations– Accident / Incident

• Consequences– Radiological– Non-radiological

• Identify all Events for Each Scenario

• Estimate Pi and Ci; then Ri

Scenario

RoutineAccident / Incident

Radiological

Non-Rad.

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Risk Assessment

Consequence, C

Scenario

RoutineAccident / Incident

Radiological

Non-Rad.

Probability, P

Scenario

RoutineAccident / Incident

Radiological

Non-Rad.

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Highway Access To Yucca Mountain

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Infrastructure

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NEVADA POPULATION DENSITY

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Police and Sheriff Local Response Times Across Nevada

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Access Routes To Yucca Mtn Using Any Route

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Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through Wendover, NV

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Yucca Mtn Highway Routes Through US 95/ Amargosa Valley

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Summary

• Emergency Preparedness

• Risk Assessment

• SNF & HLW Transport – Population– Environment– Infrastructure– Emergency Response

• Communications

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