Emergency Preparedness Emergency Preparedness Education: Learning from Education: Learning from

Experience, Science of Experience, Science of Disasters, and Preparing for Disasters, and Preparing for

the Future (II): Focus on the Future (II): Focus on Flood and Typhoon Flood and Typhoon

Roberto ArayaRoberto Araya

CIAE CIAE University of ChileUniversity of Chile

roberto.araya.schulz@gmail.com

Empirical Study of the Empirical Study of the CurriculumCurriculum

Math Modeling of FloodsMath Modeling of Floods

Empirical Study of the Empirical Study of the CurriculumCurriculum

Curriculum + teacher practices + students activities Curriculum + teacher practices + students activities knowledge knowledge components networkcomponents network

(515.823 exercises made by 805 4th graders from 23 courses)

Empirical study: Empirical study: number of excercises per monthnumber of excercises per month

Empirical study: Empirical study: # of exercises of each curriculum component per # of exercises of each curriculum component per

month month

Empirical study: Empirical study: causality between curriculum componentscausality between curriculum components

To predict performance in a component c, which historical performance k will be To predict performance in a component c, which historical performance k will be better? better?

Empirical study: Empirical study: causality network of components causality network of components

Empirical study: Empirical study: causality between strandscausality between strands

Empirical studyEmpirical study

Mathematical ModelingMathematical Modeling

Use Use Select Select Adjust Adjust Build Build

Concrete Concrete Computational Computational AbstractAbstract

How to study How to study propagation? propagation?

Use simple modelsUse simple models

Model # 1 Model # 1

Model # 1 Model # 1

Model # 2 Model # 2

Model # 2 Model # 2

Model # 2 Model # 2 (another initial condition)(another initial condition)

Model # 2 Model # 2

Model # 3 Model # 3

Model # 3 Model # 3

Model # 4 Model # 4

Model # 4 Model # 4

SelectSelect

AdjustAdjust

BuildBuild

Thank you

roberto.araya.schulz@gmail.com