Emerging Economies' Supply Shocks and Japan's Price Deflation: International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model

8/13/2019 Emerging Economies' Supply Shocks and Japan's Price Deflation: International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/emerging-economies-supply-shocks-and-japans-price-deflation-international 1/39

CHLO Z`rm oaj Ycpkr Tkroks

Kbkrjoaj Kdà`boks‟Tuppgy Tf`dms cah Ncpca‟sYrodk Hkegctoà>Oatkractoàcg Xrcasbossoàs oa cXfrkk-Dùatry HTJK B`hkg

Ac`fosc Forcmctc, _ut` Owcscmo,cah Bcscfor` Mcwco

A`. 8;?Eklrucry <938

Csoca Hkvkg`pbkat Lcam Oastotutk



Xfk Z`rmoaj Ycpkr skroks os c dàtoauctoà è tfk e`rbkrgy acbkh Hosdussoà Ycpkr skroks=

tfk aublkroaj è tfk pcpkrs dàtoaukh wotfùt oatkrruptoà `r dfcajk. CHLO‟s w`rmoajpcpkrs rkegkdt oaotocg ohkcs à c t`pod cah crk p`stkh àgoak e`r hosdussoà. CHLO kadùrcjksrkchkrs t` p`st tfkor d`bbkats à tfk bcoa pcjk e`r kcdf w`rmoaj pcpkr (jovka oa tfkdotctoà lkg`w). T`bk w`rmoaj pcpkrs bcy hkvkg`p oat` `tfkr e`rbs è pulgodctoà.

Tujjkstkh dotctoà>

Forcmctc, A., _. Owcscmo, cah B. Mcwco. <938. Kbkrjoaj Kdà`boks‟ Tuppgy Tf`dms cahNcpca‟s Yrodk Hkegctoà> Oatkractoàcg Xrcasbossoàs oa c Xfrkk-Dùatry HTJK B`hkg. CHLOZ`rmoaj Ycpkr 8;?. X`my`> Csoca Hkvkg`pbkat Lcam Oastotutk. Cvcogclgk>fttp>//www.chlo.`rj/w`rmoaj-pcpkr/<938/9</9:/5344.kbkrjoaj.kdà`boks.suppgy.sf`dms/

Ygkcsk dàtcdt tfk cutf`rs e`r oae`rbctoà clùt tfos pcpkr.

Kbcog> ac`fosc.forcmctcIl`n.`r.np= yuut`.owcscmoIl`n.`r.np= bmcwcoIchlo.`rj

Ac`fosc Forcmctc cah _ut` Owcscmo crk wotf tfk Lcam è Ncpca. Bcscfor` Mcwco os Hkcaè tfk Csoca Hkvkg`pbkat Lcam Oastotutk (CHLO).

Xfos os c sojaoeodcatgy rkvoskh vkrsoà è tfk pcpkr prkskatkh t` tfk 8tf [aovkrsoty èX`my` cah Lcam è Ncpca dàekrkadk, ‗Ncpca‟s Yrodk B`vkbkats cah Xfkor Lcdmjrùah>

Kxpkrokadks er`b tfk 3??9s cah <999s,‒ fkgh oa X`my` à <8 A`vkblkr <933 cah t` ca Cbkrodca Kdà`bod Css`doctoà Caaucg Bkktoaj skssoà, ‗Kbporodcg Csskssbkats èOatkractoàcg Tf`dm Xrcasbossoà e`r Csoc,‒ fkgh oa Tca Hokj` à 8 Ncaucry <934. Xfkcutf`rs crk tfcameug t` M`sumk C`mo, Tfojkt` Motca`, _òdfo Bctsulcycsfo, McahcAcmaò, Yokrrk G. Tomg`s, cah M`z` [khc e`r tfkor dàstrudtovk d`bbkats.

Xfk vokws kxprksskh oa tfos pcpkr crk tfk vokws è tfk cutf`rs cah h` a`t akdksscrogyrkegkdt tfk vokws `r p`godoks è CHLO, CHL, ots L`crh è Horkdt`rs, tfk j`vkrabkats tfkyrkprkskat, `r tfk Lcam è Ncpca. CHLO h`ks a`t jucrcatkk tfk cddurcdy è tfk hctcoadguhkh oa tfos pcpkr cah cddkpts a` rkspàsologoty e`r cay dàskqukadks è tfkor usk.Xkrboa`g`jy uskh bcy a`t akdksscrogy lk dàsostkat wotf CHL èeodocg tkrbs.

Csoca Hkvkg`pbkat Lcam OastotutkMcsubojcskmo Luoghoaj 6E4-<-; Mcsubojcskmo, Dfoy`hc-muX`my` 399-5996, Ncpca

Xkg> +63-4-4;?4-;;99Ecx> +63-4-4;?4-;;:3[\G> www.chlo.`rjK-bcog> oaeÌchlo.`rj

© <938 Csoca Hkvkg`pbkat Lcam Oastotutk



CHLO Z`rmoaj Ycpkr 8;? Forcmctc, Owcscmo, cah Mcwco

Clst rcdt

Xfos pcpkr kxcboaks tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà keekdts tfct c p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm oakbkrjoaj kdà`boks bcy fcvk à oaegctoà oa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks. Zk dàstrudt chyacbod st`dfcstod jkakrcg kquogolroub (HTJK) b`hkg e`r tfrkk dùatroks cah cacgyzk tfk

obpcdt è c suppgy sf`dm oa ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by, tfk Yk`pgk‟s \kpulgod è Dfoac (Y\D),à oaegctoà rctks oa tw` hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks, tfk [aotkh Ttctks ([T) cah Ncpca. Zkhkbàstrctk tfct tfk cssubkh csybbktrod trchk strudturks cbàj tfk tfrkk dùatroks cahtfk Y\D‟s dfòdk è kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk oaegukadk tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà è csuppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D. Tpkdoeodcggy, Ncpca os uahkr c jrkctkr hkegctoàcry prkssurk tfcatfk [T lkdcusk è ots vkrtodcg trchk spkdocgozctoà vos-é-vos tfk Y\D cah tfk Y\D‟s [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh rkjobk. Xfos ùtd`bk sujjksts tfct, kvka tfùjf Ncpca cah tfk [T bcy ecdkd`bbà p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms er`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks, tfk hkegctoàcry obpcdt è tfksf`dm os jrkctkr e`r Ncpca.

NKG Dgcssoeo dctoà> E4<, E83, E88, E8:




Dàtkats

3. Oatr`hudtoà .................................................................................................................. 4 <. Ekcturks ̀ e tfk B`hkg cah tfk Gotkrcturk .................................................................... 4

<.3 Ekcturks è tfk Xfrkk-Dùatry HTJK B`hkg ................................................. 4 <.< Kxostoaj Gotkrcturk ............................................................................................ ;

4. Kbporodcg Xksts> Tuppgy Tf`dms oa Kbkrjoaj Kdà`boks cah Oaegctoà oa Ncpca ........ 5 4.3 Yrkvoùs Ttuhoks à tfk [aotkh Ttctks cah Kur`pk ........................................ 5 4.< Kxtkasoà è tfk Kstobctoà B`hkg t` Ncpca ................................................... :

8. Xfk Xfrkk-Dùatry HTJK B`hkg ................................................................................ ? 8.3 @vkrcgg Ttrudturk è tfk Xfrkk-Dùatry Z`rgh Kdà`by ................................. ? 8.< Eoacg J``hs Dàsubptoà ............................................................................. 39 8.4 Aàtrchclgk J``hs Yr`hudtoà ..................................................................... 33 8.8 Xrchclgk J``hs Yr`hudtoà .......................................................................... 3< 8.; Fùskf`gh Lkfcvo`r ...................................................................................... 3; 8.5 Bàktcry Y`gody cah tfk Kxdfcajk \ctk ...................................................... 3: 8.: Bcrmkt Dgkcroaj ............................................................................................. 3:

;. Tobugctoà Cacgysos ̀ e c Y`sotovk Tuppgy Tf`dm oa ca Kbkrjoaj Kdà`by ............... 36 ;.3 Lcskgoak Ycrcbktkrs ..................................................................................... 36 ;.< Lcskgoak Tobugctoà Cacgysos......................................................................... <3 ;.4 \`gk è tfk Xrchk Ttrudturk ........................................................................... <8 ;.8 \`gk è tfk Kxdfcajk \ctk \kjobk .............................................................. <6 ;.; \`gk è Yrodk-Tkttoaj Lkfcvo`r ...................................................................... 49

5. Dàdgusoàs ............................................................................................................... 44 \kekrkadks ............................................................................................................................ 45




4

3. OAX\@H[DXO@A

@vkr tfk pcst <9 ykcrs, tfk Yk`pgk‟s \kpulgod è Dfoac (Y\D) cah `tfkr kbkrjoajkdà`boks fcvk strkajtfkakh tfkor suppgy dcpcdotoks, gkchoaj t` ca kxpcasoà oa tfkorsfcrk è jg`lcg pr`hudtoà cah kxp`rts. Hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks‟ obp`rts er`b kbkrjoaj

kdà`boks fcvk sfcrpgy oadrkcskh oa rkdkat ykcrs. \cpoh pr`hudtovoty oadrkcsks oakbkrjoaj kdà`boks fcvk gkh tfkb t` kxpkrokadk fojf oaegctoà, wfogk dcusoaj g`woaegctoà oa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks sudf cs tfk [aotkh Ttctks ([T), Kur`pkca dùatroks,cah Ncpca. Cbàj tfk hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks, Ncpca fcs ecdkh g`wkst oaegctoà cahkvka hkegctoà. Obp`rts è dfkcp j``hs er`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks wf`sk wcjks crkg`wkr tfca tf`sk oa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks bcy fcvk pcrtocggy dàtrolutkh t` g`w oaegctoàoa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks, pcrtodugcrgy Ncpca.

\kdkat kbporodcg cacgysks ly Cukr cah Eosdfkr (<939) cah Cukr, Hkjka, cah Eosdfkr(<933) rkp`rtkh tfct rosoaj obp`rts er`b kbkrjoaj t` hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks‘huk t` tfke`rbkr‟s p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms‘cs c sfcrk è tfk gcttkr‟s t`tcg obp`rts fch rkhudkhtfk oaegctoà rctks oa tfk [T cah Kur`pkca dùatroks. Kxtkahoaj tfksk kbporodcg stuhokst` Ncpca, wk oavkstojctk wfktfkr p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks fcvk

cgs` sojaoeodcatgy rkhudkh tfk oaegctoà rctk oa Ncpca, cs oa tfk [T cah Kur`pk. Eurtfkr,wk kxcboak wfktfkr tfk h`wawcrh obpcdt è tfksk kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dmsà tfk oaegctoà rctk oa Ncpca fcs lkka jrkctkr tfca tf`sk oa tfk [T cah Kur`pk.

Xfka, wk cttkbpt t` cacgyzk tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà bkdfcaosbs tfrùjf wfodfkbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟ p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms bcy ceekdt oaegctoà rctks oa l`tf kbkrjoajcah hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks. @ur j`cg os t` kxpgcoa wfy hoeekrkat hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks‘sudf cs tfk [T cah Kur`pk à tfk àk fcah cah Ncpca à tfk `tfkr‘bcy rkspàhhoeekrkatgy t` kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dms, kvka tfùjf tfksk sf`dms crkd`bbà t` tfk jg`lcg kdà`by.

Xfos pcpkr os `rjcaozkh cs e`gg`ws. Oa Tkdtoà <, wk subbcrozk tfk spkdoeod ekcturks ètfk b`hkg uskh oa tfk pcpkr cah crjuk tfct tfk b`hkg os akw oa tfk gotkrcturk. OaTkdtoà 4, wk pkre`rb ca kbporodcg cacgysos è tfk obpcdt è kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy

sf`dms à Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk, usoaj tfk bktf`h`g`jy hkvkg`pkh ly Cukr cahEosdfkr (<939). Oa Tkdtoà 8, wk kxpgcoa tfk hktcogs è tfk tfrkk-dùatry hyacbodst`dfcstod jkakrcg kquogolroub (HTJK) b`hkg tfct oad`rp`rctks sf`rt-tkrb prodk rojohoty,vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà è trchk, cah kxdfcajk rctk rkjobks t` cacgyzk tfk oatkractoàcgtrcasbossoà keekdts è ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dm. Oa Tkdtoà ;, wk dcgolrctkb`hkg pcrcbktkrs cah prkskat rksugts è obpugsk rkspàsks è bcdr`kdà`bodvcroclgks oa tfk tfrkk dùatroks, pcrtodugcrgy Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk, t` c p`sotovk suppgysf`dm oa ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by. Oa Tkdtoà 5, wk dàdguhk tfk pcpkr.

<. EKCX[\KT @E XFK B@HKG CAH XFK GOXK\CX[\K

<.3 Ekcturks è tfk Xfrkk-Dùatry HTJK B`hkg

Zk dàstrudt c HTJK b`hkg e`r tfrkk dùatroks‘tw` hkvkg`pkh (Ncpca cah tfk [T)cah ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by (tfk Y\D)‘cah sobugctk tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoàkeekdts è c p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm oa tfk kbkrjoaj kdà`by (tfk Y\D) àbcdr`kdà`bod vcroclgks, kspkdocggy oaegctoà rctks, oa l`tf tfk hkvkg`pkh cahkbkrjoaj kdà`boks. Xfk tfrkk-dùatry HTJK b`hkg uskh e`r ùr cacgysos oadguhkstfrkk bcoa ekcturks> (o) tfk prkskadk è trchclgk cah aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustroks= (oo)oatkractoàcg vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà è trchk (suppgy dfcoas) wfkrk àk skdt`r oa tfk




8

trchclgk j``hs oahustry pr`hudks pcrts cah d`bpàkats cah tfk `tfkr skdt`r uskstfksk pcrts cah d`bpàkats t` csskblgk eoacg pr`hudts= cah (ooo) tfk kbkrjoajkdà`by‟s ch`ptoà ̀ e c [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk.

Xfk eorst ekcturk è tfk b`hkg‘tfk prkskadk è trchclgk cah aàtrchclgk j``hs‘sujjksts tfk p`ssolgk Lcgcssc—Tcbukgsà bkdfcaosb tfct pr`hudks oaegctoà

hoeekrkadks lktwkka kbkrjoaj cah hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks. Oa tfk kbkrjoaj kdà`by,tfk oaegctoà rctk è jkakrcg prodks rosks lkdcusk è fojfkr pr`hudtovoty oa tfk trchclgkj``hs oahustry, wfodf gkchs t` ca oadrkcsk oa a`boacg wcjks cah tfka aàtrchclgkj``hs prodks. Oa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks, tfk hkdgoak oa tfk prodk è trchclgk j``hsobp`rtkh er`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks rkhudks tfk oaegctoà rctk è jkakrcg prodks. Xfkskossuks fcvk lkka hosdusskh oa \clcacg (<99?) cah Lkrmc cah Hkvkrkux (<939), e`rkxcbpgk, wf` uskh jkakrcg kquogolroub b`hkgs wotf trchclgk cah aàtrchclgk j``hs t`cacgyzk tfk hoeekrkadks oa oaegctoà rctks cah rkcg kxdfcajk rctk b`vkbkats cbàjKur`pkca dùatroks.

Xfk skdàh ekcturk è tfk b`hkg‘oatkractoàcg vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà è trchk‘osoad`rp`rctkh oa tfk cacgysos e`r tw` rkcsàs. Eorst, vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà oa jg`lcg cahrkjoàcg suppgy dfcoas fcs dàtrolutkh jrkctgy t` tfk rkdkat kxpcasoà è oatkractoàcgtrchk.3 Tkdàh, tfk trchk strudturk, kspkdocggy vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà, os ca obp`rtcatkgkbkat oa hktkrboaoaj tfk kxtkat è oatkractoàcg lusoakss dydgks.< E`r kxcbpgk, usoajc b`hkg è oatkractoàcg lusoakss dydgks e`r tw` dùatroks wotf vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà,Lurstkoa, Murz, cah Xkscr (<996) hkbàstrctkh tfct tfk stràjkr tfk hkjrkk è vkrtodcgspkdocgozctoà, tfk stràjkr tfk d`rrkgctoà lktwkka tfk lusoakss dydgks è tfk tw`dùatroks. Tudf stuhoks sujjkst tfct l`tf vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà cah trchk oaoatkrbkhoctk j``hs crk drudocg ecdt`rs wfka dàsohkroaj tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoàè sf`dms. Oa cacgyzoaj tfk obpcdt è kbkrjoaj kdà`by pr`hudtovoty sf`dms àoaegctoà rctks oa kbkrjoaj cah `tfkr kdà`boks, ot os obp`rtcat t` hostoajuosf lktwkkavkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà oav`gvoaj trchk oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats cah f`rozàtcgspkdocgozctoà oav`gvoaj rkdopr`dcg trchk oa eoacg pr`hudts. [ahkr f`rozàtcgspkdocgozctoà, suppgy sf`dms oa ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by stobugctk ots pr`hudtoà cahkxp`rts cah rkhudk pr`hudtoà oa `tfkr d`bpktoaj dùatroks, wfogk uahkr vkrtodcg

spkdocgozctoà tfky dca stobugctk tfk pr`hudtoà è oatkrbkhoctk j``hs oa l`tf tfkkbkrjoaj kdà`by cah ots trchoaj pcrtakrs. Zk wogg sf`w tfct tfos hoeekrkadk fcssojaoeodcat obpgodctoàs e`r kxdfcajk rctks cah oaegctoà oa hoeekrkat hkvkg`pkh dùatroks.

Zk oatr`hudk tw` cssubptoàs clùt tfk trchk strudturks è tfk tfrkk dùatroks. Eorst,trchk lktwkka Ncpca cah tfk Y\D dca lk dfcrcdtkrozkh cs vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà,wfkrk Ncpca kxp`rts pcrts cah d`bpàkats t` tfk Y\D cah obp`rts eoacg pr`hudts

3 Fubbkgs, Osfoo, cah _o (<993) dcgdugctkh tfk obpcdt è tfk trchk v`gubk hkrovkh er`b vkrtodcg

spkdocgozctoà à `vkrcgg trchk ct tfk oahustry gkvkg e`r @rjcaosctoà e`r Kdà`bod D`-`pkrctoà cahHkvkg`pbkat (@KDH) dùatroks cah kbkrjoaj kdà`boks. Xfky rkp`rtkh tfct clùt 89% è t`tcg jg`lcgkxp`rts rksugt er`b vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà. M``pbca, Zcaj, cah Zko (<996) eurtfkr obpr`vkh à tfkvkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà d`bputctoà bktf`h`g`jy cah rkp`rtkh tfct tfk cvkrcjk pr`p`rtoà è Y\D kxp`rtj``hs bchk up è e`rkoja pcrts cah d`bpàkats wcs ;9%, cah oa tfk dcsk è kgkdtràod kquopbkat tfos

kxdkkhkh 69%. _o (<994) cgs` fojfgojftkh tfk obp`rtcadk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà oa hksdroloaj tfkhrcbctod kxpcasoà è trchk v`gubks tfct `ddurrkh e`gg`woaj Z`rgh Zcr OO. Xcroee rkhudtoàs kxpcahkhtfk v`gubk è trchk, oav`gvoaj vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà oa c aàgoakcr bcaakr. Xfus, clùt ;9% è tfkoadrkcsk oa trchk v`gubk oa tfk p`st-Z`rgh Zcr OO pkro`h dca lk kxpgcoakh ly tfksk tcroee rkhudtoàs.

< Kbporodcg stuhoks sudf cs tf`sk dàhudtkh ly Dgcrm cah vca Zoad``p (<993) cah Lcxtkr cah

Mùpcrotscs (<994, <99;) fcvk rkp`rtkh c p`sotovk rkgctoàsfop lktwkka trchk v`gubks cah lusoakssdydgk syadfràozctoà e`r tw` dùatroks. F`wkvkr, oa tfk stcahcrh oatkractoàcg lusoakss dydgk b`hkgwfkrk dùatroks trchk eoacg pr`hudts wotf kcdf `tfkr, tfk d`rrkgctoà è lusoakss dydgks lktwkka tw`dùatroks h`ks a`t rosk kvka wotf oadrkcsks oa tfk trchk v`gubks.




;

csskblgkh oa tfk Y\D. F`wkvkr, trchk lktwkka tfk [T cah tfk Y\D `r lktwkka tfk[T cah Ncpca h`ks a`t oav`gvk sojaoeodcat vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà. Tkdàh, tfk pcrts cahd`bpàkats pr`hudkh ly Ncpca crk a`t fojfgy sulstotutclgk wotf tf`sk er`b `tfkrdùatroks, wfogk eoacg pr`hudts crk fojfgy sulstotutclgk rkjcrhgkss è wfkrk tfky crkpr`hudkh. Zk hkbàstrctk tfct tfksk csybbktrod trchk strudturks cbàj tfk tfrkkdùatroks drkctk c gcrjkr trchk hkeodot oa tfk [T tfca oa Ncpca wfka tfkrk os c p`sotovksuppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D, dcusoaj tfk yka t` cpprkdoctk cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr, tfuscjjrcvctoaj tfk hkegctoàcry obpcdt ̀ a Ncpca.

Xfk tforh ekcturk è tfk b`hkg‘tfk Y\D‟s [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk cahNcpca‟s erkkgy eg`ctoaj kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk‘cppr`xobctks tfk rkcgoty cah bcy pgcy cmky r`gk uahkr tfk cssubptoà è sf`rt-tkrb prodk rojohoty. Zotf tfos ekcturk, c p`sotovksuppgy sf`dm t` tfk Y\D‟s eoacg pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r cgg`ws tfk dùatry t` rua csozclgk trchk surpgus wotfùt a`boacg durrkady cpprkdoctoà cjcoast tfk h`ggcr. Oadàtrcst, tfk Ncpcaksk yka os ceekdtkh huroaj tfk chnustbkat pkro`h. Oe tfk Y\Ddurrkady, tfk rkaboalo (\BL), wkrk erkk-eg`ctoaj, tfk Y\D‟s p`sotovk suppgy sf`dmwùgh gomkgy gkch t` c a`boacg cpprkdoctoà è tfk \BL cjcoast tfk h`ggcr t` rkst`rk cstkchy stctk trchk lcgcadk. F`wkvkr, wotf tfk \BL pkjjkh t` tfk h`ggcr, tfkrkst`rctoà è tfk stkchy stctk trchk lcgcadk wùgh rkquork tfk yka t` cpprkdoctk

cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr lkdcusk è c sbcggkr trchk hkeodot oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T. Xfkskrksugts, tfkrke`rk, sujjkst tfct cgtfùjf Ncpca cah tfk [T bcy ecdk d`bbà suppgysf`dms `rojoactoaj oa tfk Y\D, tfk csybbktrod trchk strudturks cbàj tfk tfrkkdùatroks cah tfk Y\D‟s h`ggcr-pkj p`gody dca drkctk jrkctkr hkegctoàcry prkssurks e`rNcpca.

<.< Kxostoaj Gotkrcturk

Xfk tfrkk-dùatry HTJK b`hkg wotf prodk rojohoty, vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà, cah kxdfcajkrctk rkjobks os akw oa tfk gotkrcturk. D`rsktto kt cg. (<999) uskh c tfrkk-dùatry b`hkgè tfk [T (dkatrcg dùatry) cah tw` kbkrjoaj kdà`boks (akojfl`roaj dùatroks) t`kxcboak tfk oatkractoàcg spogg`vkr keekdts è bàktcry kcsoaj (durrkady hkvcguctoà) lyàk è tfk kbkrjoaj kdà`boks. Xfkor cacgysos cssubkh tfct tfk j``hs pr`hudkh lytfk tw` akojfl`roaj dùatroks (tkxtogks sudf cs swkctkrs cah sforts) fch c fojf hkjrkkè sulstotutclogoty wotf kcdf `tfkr wfogk j``hs pr`hudkh ly tfk dkatrcg dùatry(bcdfoakry pr`hudts sudf cs d`bputkrs) fch c g`w hkjrkk è sulstotutclogoty.4 Bcrm`vodcah Y`v`gkh` (<99:) uskh c tfrkk-dùatry b`hkg è tfk [T, Kur`pk, cah Csocakbkrjoaj kdà`boks cah cacgyzkh tfk ossuks è tfk Y\D kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk.Xfksk cacgysks, f`wkvkr, cssubkh f`rozàtcg spkdocgozctoà wfkrk àgy eoacg j``hswkrk kxdfcajkh lktwkka dùatroks cah hoh a`t oadguhk vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà è trchkoa eoacg pr`hudts tfct rkquork oatkrbkhoctk j``hs er`b `tfkr dùatroks.

Fucaj cah Gou (<995) hkvkg`pkh c bugtostcjk pr`hudtoà b`hkg e`r vkrtodcgspkdocgozctoà t` kxcboak tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà keekdts è bàktcry p`godysf`dms. F`wkvkr, tfkor b`hkg wcs gobotkh t` tw` dùatroks. _o (<994) a`tkh tfkobp`rtcadk è trchk oa oatkrbkhoctk j``hs cah sf`wkh tfct vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà cah

trchk oa oatkrbkhoctk j``hs pgcykh c sojaoeodcat r`gk oa tfk kxpcasoà è jg`lcg trchk.Lut fk hoh a`t e`dus à a`boacg vcroclgks sudf cs prodk oaegctoà. Cblgkr, Dcrhoc, cahôbbkrbcaa (<99<) cah Lurstkoa, Murz, cah Xkscr (<996) uskh c bugtoskdt`r b`hkgoadguhoaj vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà cah oatkractoàcg lusoakss dydgks cah hkbàstrctkh

4 Oa tfkor cacgysos, tfk kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà wcs obp`rtcat oa hktkrboaoaj tfk obpcdt è àk dùatry‟s

durrkady hkvcguctoà à tfk `tfkr akojfl`roaj dùatry oa tkrbs è wkgecrk.






:

gkvkg, ot wcs kxpkdtkh tfct tfk kah`jkakoty locs è tfk obp`rt sfcrk wùgh lkboaobozkh.

Cukr cah Eosdfkr‟s kstobctoà rksugts lcskh à [T hctc sf`wkh tfct kbkrjoajkdà`boks‟ p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms tfct wùgh oadrkcsk [T obp`rts er`b tfkskkdà`boks oahkkh sojaoeodcatgy rkhudkh tfk oaegctoà rctk è pr`hudkr prodks oa tfk [T.

Tpkdoeodcggy, ca oadrkcsk oa tfk [T obp`rt sfcrk ly 3 pkrdkatcjk pòat wcs rkp`rtkh t`rkhudk tfk oaegctoà rctk, bkcsurkh ly tfk pr`hudkr prodk oahkx (YYO), ly <.4%. Cdd`rhoaj t` Cukr, Hkjka, cah Eosdfkr (<933), wf` uskh Kur`pkca oahustry hctc t`kstobctk tfk obpcdt è kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dms à Kur`pkca oaegctoà rctks,ca oadrkcsk oa tfk Kur`pkca obp`rt sfcrk (er`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks) ly 3 pkrdkatcjkpòat rkhudkh tfk Kur`pkca YYO oaegctoà rctk ly 4.;%.

4.< Kxtkasoà è tfk Kstobctoà B`hkg t` Ncpca

Zk cppgy tfk scbk bktf`h`g`jy t` Ncpcaksk oahustry hctc t` kstobctk tfk obpcdt èkbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dms à Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk.8 Cgtfùjf tfk aublkr èoahustry jrùps os sbcggkr oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T `r Kur`pk, wk fcvk lkka clgk t``ltcoa bkcaoajeug rksugts. Cs subbcrozkh oa Xclgk 3, tfk kstobctoà rksugts e`r Ncpca

hkbàstrctk tfct l`tf tfk oastrubkatcg vcroclgk‘tfk pr`hudt è gcl`r oatkasotoks cahkbkrjoaj kdà`by jr`wtf rctks‘oa tfk eorst stcjk è kstobctoà cah tfk obp`rt sfcrkoa tfk skdàh stcjk è kstobctoà fcvk d`rrkdt sojas è tfk d`keeodokats cah crk cgs`stctostodcggy sojaoeodcat. Xfk sozk è tfk kstobctkh d`keeodokat oa tfk skdàh-stcjkkstobctoà sf`ws tfct ca oadrkcsk oa Ncpca‟s obp`rt sfcrk (er`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks)ly 3 pkrdkatcjk pòat rkhudks Ncpca‟s YYO oaegctoà rctk ly 8%—;%. D`bpcroaj tfksozk è tfos kstobctk vcguk e`r tfk obp`rt sfcrk oa tfk oaegctoà rctk kquctoà wotf tf`skè tfk kstobctks e`r tfk [T cah Kur`pk, wk eoah tfct Ncpca‟s kstobctk è ∜8.? wcsgcrjkr oa cls`gutk vcguk tfca tf`sk e`r tfk [T (∜<.4) cah Kur`pk (∜4.;). Xfk ossukrkbcoas cs t` wfktfkr tfksk hoeekrkadks lktwkka Ncpca cah tfk [T/Kur`pk crkstctostodcggy sojaoeodcat, lut tfky h` sujjkst tfct p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoajkdà`boks fcvk fch c b`rk hkegctoàcry obpcdt à Ncpca.

Eojurk 3 hkpodts tfk kstobctkh obpcdt è kbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟ suppgy sf`dms à tfkNcpcaksk cah [T YYOs lcskh à tfk cl`vk rksugts. Cdd`rhoaj t` tfksk kstobctks,p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks gomkgy rkhudkh tfk Ncpcaksk YYOoaegctoà rctk ly ca cvkrcjk è <.4% pkr ykcr lktwkka 3?6? cah <99:. F`wkvkr, tfkyrkhudkh tfk cvkrcjk [T YYO oaegctoà rctk ly sgojftgy gkss tfca 3% pkr ykcr lktwkka3??6 cah <995.; Zotfùt kbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟ suppgy sf`dms, Ncpcaksk YYO oaegctoàrctks wùgh fcvk rkd`rhkh p`sotovk aublkrs tfrùjfùt tfk scbpgk pkro`h kxdkpt e`r cekw ykcrs (3??:—3??6 cah <999).

Xfksk rksugts sujjkst tfct tfk akjctovk obpcdt è p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoajkdà`boks à prodk oaegctoà oa tfk hkvkg`pkh w`rgh wcs gomkgy jrkctkr e`r Ncpca tfcae`r tfk [T cah Kur`pk.

8 B`st è tfk hctc crk er`b tfk Ncpca Oahustrocg Yr`hudtovoty (NOY) hctclcsk <939 d`bpogkh ly tfk

\kskcrdf Oastotutk è Kdà`by, Xrchk cah Oahustry.; Ykre`rboaj tfk scbk kstobctoàs t` Kur`pkca oaegctoà rctks wcs hoeeodugt lkdcusk è hctc gobotctoàs.




6

Xclgk 3> Oastrubkatcg Ucroclgk Kstobctoà \ksugts e`r Yr`hudkr Yrodk Oaegctoà

Ncpca [aotkh Ttctks Kur`pk

Tcbpgk pkro`h 3?6?—<99: 3??:—<995 3??;—<996

Eoxkh keekdt _ks _ks _ks _ks _ks _ks

_kcr hubboks _ks A` _ks A` _ks A`

OU Eorst stcjk kstobctoà > hkpkahkat vcroclgk os ykcr-à-ykcr dfcajk oa tfk obp`rt sfcrk(vcguk ̀ e obp `rts e r`b kbkrjoaj kdà`boks / oahustry s ozk)

Bcauecdturoaj ùtput -- -9.9<;]9.9<4<R

*

-- 9.9:9:]9.9<:5R

*

-- 9.99<]9.93<R

Gcl`r oatkasoty * ùtput 9.95?8]9.94?;R*

9.95?8]9.94?3R

*

9.9499]9.9946R

**

9.9499]9.994?R

**

9.93]9.99<R

**

9.99?]9.99<R

**

\-squcrkh (wotfoa) 9.9<8 9.9<8 9.38 9.33 9.9< 9.9;

OU Tkdàh stcjk kstobctoà> hkpkahkat vcroclgk os ykcr-à-ykcr rctk è dfcajk oa pr`hudkrprodks

Bcauecdturoaj ùtput -- 9.9<95]9.958;R

-- 3.<<;]9.388R

**

-- 9.48<]9.95?R

***

Obp`rt sfcrk -8.65?]<.;<8R

*

-8.65?]<.;9<R

*

-<.4;<]9.;3;R

**

-<.4;5]9.;<5R

**

-4.;43]9.?58R

***

-4.;:;]9.69;R

***

Aublkr è `lskrvctoàs ?66 ?66 <:9< <:9< :939 :939

Aublkr è jrùps ;< ;< 4<; 4<; 536 536

OU 2 oastrubkatcg vcroclgk.

A`tks> (3) Oahustry sozk oa Ncpca os hkeoakh cs h`bkstod pr`hudtoà pgus obp`rts. Hctc er`b Ncpca crk er`btfk Ncpca Oahustrocg Yr`hudtovoty (NOY) hctclcsk <939 d`bpogkh ly tfk \kskcrdf Oastotutk èKdà`by, Xrchk, cah Oahustry. (<) Ttcahcrh krr`rs rkp`rtkh oa lrcdmkts= * sojaoeodcat ct 39%= ** sojaoeodcat ct ;%= *** sojaoeodcat ct3%.

Tùrdk> Cutf`rs‟ d`bpogctoà (er`b Cukr cah Eosdfkr ]<939R à tfk [T cah er`b Cukr, Hkjka, cah Eosdfkr]<933R à Kur`pk) cah kstobctoà (à Ncpca).

Eojurk 3> Obpcdt è Kbkrjoaj Kdà`boks‟ Tuppgy Tf`dms à Ncpca‟s Oaegctoà

Tùrdk> Cutf`rs‟ d`bpogctoà (er`b Cukr cah Eosdfkr ]<933R) à [aotkh Ttctks hctc cah kstobctoà à Ncpca‟shctc (kstobctoà e`r Ncpca crk lcskh à hctc er`b tfk Ncpca Oahustrocg Yr`hudtovoty (NOY) hctclcsk <939d`bpogkh ly tfk \kskcrdf Oastotutk è Kdà`by, Xrchk cah Oahustry).

-;

-8

-4

-<

-3

9

3

<

4

8

;

5

-;

-8

-4

-<

-3

9

3

<

4

8

;

5

6? ?9 ?3 ?< ?4 ?8 ?; ?5 ?: ?6 ?? 99 93 9< 94 98 9; 95 9:

Obpcdt ̀ a Ncpcaksk pr`hudkr prodks> (c)-(l)

Obpcdt ̀ a [T pr`hudkr prodks

(c) @lskrvkh Ncpcaksk pr`hudkr prodks

(l) Kstobctkh Ncpcaksk pr`hudkr prodks, kxdguhoaj tfk obpcdt ̀ e suppgy sf`dms

(y/y % dfcajk)

Cvkrcjk obpcdt ̀ a pr`hudkr prodks> -<.4＋




?

8. XFK XF\KK-D@[AX\_ HTJK B@HKG

Xfk kbporodcg rksugts oa tfk prkvoùs skdtoà fcvk sujjkstkh tfct kbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟suppgy sf`dms rkhudkh oaegctoà rctks oa Ncpca, tfk [T, cah Kur`pk oa c sojaoeodcatbcaakr. Xfk hkegctoàcry obpcdt wcs gomkgy jrkctkr e`r Ncpca tfca e`r tfk [T cah

Kur`pkca dùatroks. @a tfk lcsos è tfos kbporodcg kvohkadk, wk a`w dàstrudt ca`pka-kdà`by HTJK b`hkg dàsostoaj è tfrkk dùatroks t` kxcboak oatkractoàcgtrcasbossoà bkdfcaosbs ̀ e kbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟ suppgy sf`dms.

8.3 @vkrcgg Ttrudturk è tfk Xfrkk-Dùatry Z`rgh Kdà`by

Xfk w`rgh kdà`by oa tfk b`hkg dàsosts è tfrkk dùatroks, dcggkh Ncpca, tfk [T, cahtfk Y\D, hksojactkh ly N, [, cah D, rkspkdtovkgy. Xfk sozks è tfksk dùatroks crkjovka ly sN , s[ , cah sD , rkspkdtovkgy. Kcdf dùatry fcs l`tf trchclgk cah aàtrchclgkj``hs oahustroks, cah tfk trchclgk j``hs oahustry oa kcdf dùatry d`bprosks c pcrtscah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r cah c eoacg j``hs pr`hudtoà (`r pr`hudt csskblgy)skdt`r tfct usks pcrts cah d`bpàkats t` bcauecdturk trchclgk eoacg j``hs.

Kcdf è tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustry, tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r,cah tfk eoacg j``hs pr`hudtoà (`r pr`hudt csskblgy) skdt`r dàtcoas ca oaeoaotk aublkrè eorbs. Kcdf eorb `pkrctks uahkr bà`p`gostod d`bpktotoà= tfct os, tfk j``hspr`hudkh ly oahovohucg eorbs fcvk lrcah p`wkr cah crk hoeekrkatoctkh er`b kcdf `tfkr.

Xfk oahkx e`r eorbs oa tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustry os jovka ly 9, , , , ,

tfct e`r eorbs oa tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r os jovka ly 9, , , , , cah tfct e`r eorbs oa tfk pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r os jovka ly 9, , , , .

A`boacg prodks crk rojoh oa tfk sf`rt rua cs c eorb oadurs chnustbkat d`sts t` cgtkr otsprodk, wfogk tfky crk euggy egkxolgk oa tfk gàj rua. E`r sobpgodoty, gcl`r os tfk àgyeuahcbkatcg ecdt`r è pr`hudtoà, cah dcpotcg cddubugctoà os a`t dàsohkrkh.5 Eorbs oatfk aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustry cah tf`sk oa tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoàskdt`r usk àgy gcl`r e`r pr`hudtoà. F`wkvkr, tfk pr`hudtoà è trchclgk eoacg j``hsrkquorks pcrts cah d`bpàkats oa chhotoà t` gcl`r= tfk pr`hudkh pcrts cahd`bpàkats crk eorst sfoppkh t` h`bkstod cah e`rkoja cjjrkjct`rs, wf` cjjrkjctk tfkh`bkstod cah obp`rtkh pcrts cah d`bpàkats oat` cjjrkjctk pcrts cah d`bpàkats,, oa kcdf dùatry= cah tfka tfksk cjjrkjctk pcrts cah d`bpàkats, , crk sfoppkht` eorbs oa tfk pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r.: Eorbs oa tfk pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r tfus uskgcl`r cah t` pr`hudk trchclgk eoacg j``hs. Oa tfos skask, tfkrk os vkrtodcgspkdocgozctoà lktwkka tfk tw` skdt`rs oa tfk trchclgk j``hs oahustry. Xfk trchclgkeoacg j``hs crk sfoppkh t` h`bkstod cah e`rkoja cjjrkjct`rs wf` cjjrkjctk tfkb oat`c luahgk è trchclgk eoacg j``hs, . Xfk cjjrkjctk è aàtrchclgk j``hs bcauecdturkhly cgg eorbs os c luahgk è aàtrchclgk j``hs, A, wfodf crk cgg dàsubkh oa tfkordùatry è pr`hudtoà. Xfk cjjrkjctk è aàtrchclgk j``hs A cah trchclgk eoacg j``hs

os c luahgk è eoacg dàsubkr j``hs, D, t` lk dàsubkh ly fùskf`ghs.

5 E`r sobpgodoty, dcpotcg st`dm cah dcpotcg oavkstbkat crk `bottkh oa tfk b`hkg. Dàsohkroaj oatkractoàcg

lusoakss dydgks, f`wkvkr, tfk oatkractoàcg spogg`vkr è sf`dms huk t` trchk oa dcpotcg j``hs dùgh oarkcgoty lk sojaoeodcat. Oa ecdt, cs Eojurk < oggustrctks, dcpotcg j``hs kxp`rts er`b tfk Y\D t` tfk [aotkhTtctks fcvk lkka rosoaj oa rkdkat ykcrs. Xfos sujjksts tfct e`r euturk cacgysos, ot bcy lk akdksscry tè`rbugctk dcpotcg cddubugctoà cah oavkstbkat. Akvkrtfkgkss, ùr sobpgk b`hkg dca stogg hkgovkr bcayrodf rksugts tfct crk gcrjkgy dàsostkat wotf tfk `lskrvkh hctc.

: Xfk d`sts è cjjrkjctoà cah sfopbkat crk cssubkh t` lk zkr` oa tfk b`hkg.




39

Oa tfk eoacadocg bcrmkt, tfkrk crk oatkractoàcggy trchclgk làhs. Cs oatkractoàcg gkahoajcah l`rr`woaj crk cgg`wkh lktwkka dùatroks, tfkrk os a` akkh e`r kcdf dùatry t`cdfokvk c lcgcadkh durrkat cddùat (wfodf os tfk scbk cs c lcgcadkh trchk cddùat oatfk clskadk è akt kxtkracg csskts `r goclogotoks) oa kcdf pkro`h, lut ot bust cdfokvk clcgcadk oa tfk gàj tkrb.

Oa tfk akxt skdtoà, wk hksdrolk tfk b`hkg oa jrkctkr hktcog. Ot cssubks tfk tfrkkdùatroks è Ncpca, tfk [T, cah tfk Y\D, lut e`r sobpgodoty, kquctoàs wogg cgg lkhksdrolkh usoaj Ncpca (N ).

8.< Eoacg J``hs Dàsubptoà

Xfk euadtoà hka`tks tfk gkvkg è dàsubptoà è eoacg j``hs oa Ncpca, cah os

c dàstcat kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka cjjrkjctk trchclgk eoacg j``hs (, )

cah cjjrkjctk aàtrchclgk j``hs (). Xfk tkrb os tfk oahkx e`r c fùskf`gh oaNcpca, cah tfk sulsdropt < oahodctks tfct eorbs crk oa tfk skdàh pr`hudtoà stcjk, o.k.,

pr`hudt csskblgy. Xfk cjjrkjctoà euadtoà os hkeoakh ly

ｘ , 3

, (3)

wfkrk os tfk sfcrk è trchclgk eoacg j``hs oa tfk dàsubptoà lcsmkt oa Ncpca.

8.<.3 Xrchclgk Eoacg J``hs

Xfk cjjrkjctk è trchclgk eoacg j``hs , os hkeoakh ly tfk e`gg`woaj cjjrkjctk

euadtoà è h`bkstodcggy pr`hudkh trchclgk eoacg j``hs, , , cah obp`rtkh eoacg

j``hs er`b tfk [T, , , cah er`b tfk Y\D, , >

,

,

,

,

,

(<)

wfkrk , , cah crk tfk sfcrks è trchclgk eoacg j``hs pr`hudkh, rkspkdtovkgy, ly

Ncpcaksk, [T, cah Y\D eorbs oa Ncpca‟s cjjrkjctk dàsubptoà lcsmkt è trchclgk

eoacg j``hs. Xfk tkrb os tfk kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka trchclgk eoacg j``hs

pr`hudkh oa hoeekrkat dùatroks, cah , , , , cah , crk rkspkdtovkgy jovka

ly

, , ,

,

,

,

,

,

, , , ,

wfkrk , , , , , , cah , , rkspkdtovkgy hka`tk Ncpcaksk

fùskf`gh hkbcah e`r trchclgk eoacg j``hs pr`hudkh ly Ncpcaksk eorbs (), [T eorbs

(), cah Y\D eorbs ().




33

8.<.< Aàtrchclgk J``hs

Xfk cjjrkjctk ̀ e aàtrchclgk j``hs os hkeoakh ly

,

, (4)

wfkrk 9, os ca oahkx e`r Ncpcaksk eorbs oa tfk aàtrchclgk oahustry. Xfk tkrb, hka`tks Ncpcaksk fùskf`gh hkbcah e`r aàtrchclgk j``hs pr`hudkh ly

Ncpcaksk eorbs ( ). A`tk tfct tfkrk crk a` oatkrbkhoctk j``hs oa tfk aàtrchclgkj``hs oahustry.

8.<.4 Yrodk Oahkx

Xfk dàsubkr prodk oahkx tfct d`rrkspàhs t` tfk `vkrcgg dàsubptoà luahgk os jovkaly

, 3 , .

Xfk prodk è trchclgk eoacg j``hs, , , os jovka ly

, , , , .

Xfk prodks è h`bkstodcggy pr`hudkh trchclgk eoacg j``hs cah obp`rtkh eoacg j``hs er`btfk Y\D cah er`b tfk [T crk, rkspkdtovkgy, jovka ly

, , , ,, ,

wfkrk , , , , rkspkdtovkgy, hka`tk tfk yka-hka`boactkh prodks wfodf eorbs

oa tfk tfrkk dùatroks (Ncpca, tfk [T, cah tfk Y\D) skt oa tfk Ncpcaksk bcrmkt.

Cs e`r aàtrchclgk j``hs, tfk cjjrkjctk prodk oahkx os jovka ly

, , ,

wfkrk , hka`tks tfk prodk wfodf c eorb oa tfk aàtrchclgk oahustry () skts.

8.4 Aàtrchclgk J``hs Yr`hudtoà

Eorbs oa tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustry ( 9, ) usk àgy gcl`r e`r pr`hudtoà>

, , (8)

wfkrk , hka`tks pr`hudtovoty, wfodf os cssubkh t` e`gg`w c eorst `rhkrcut`rkjrkssovk pr`dkss, C\(3).

Kcdf eorb oa tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs oahustry bcxobozks tfk hosdùatkh sub è prèotsuahkr bà`p`gostod d`bpktotoà cah tfk prodk skttoaj lkfcvo`r è c \`tkblkrj-typkprodk rkstrodtoà>

bcx, , Ω∑

, (;)




3<

wfkrk , os c st`dfcstod hosdùat ecdt`r. Xfk prèot euadtoà (Ω) os jovka ly

Ω , , 3 Δ, .

Fkrk,

os tfk bcrjoacg d`st, wfodf dca lk wrottka cs

, ,

wfkrk hka`tks tfk a`boacg wcjk wfodf os ohkatodcg cdr`ss oahustroks cah skdt`rs,

cahΔ, os \`tkblkrj‟s (3?6<) prodk chnustbkat d`st, wfodf os hkeoakh ly

Δ, < ,/,,/, 3, wfkrk os tfk prodk chnustbkat d`st d`keeodokat cah γ oahodctks tfk hkjrkk è prodk

oahkxctoà.

Xfk eorst `rhkr dàhotoà e`r (;) dca lk wrottka cs>

9 3 Δ, ,3 , Δ, , ,, , ,

Δ, . Oa stkchy stctk, , os skt ly bcrm-up prodoaj>

, .

8.8 Xrchclgk J``hs Yr`hudtoàXfkrk crk tw` typks è eorbs oa tfk trchclgk j``hs oahustry. @ak typk pr`hudks pcrtscah d`bpàkats, cah tfk `tfkr csskblgks tfkb t` bcauecdturk eoacg pr`hudts.

8.8.3 Ycrts cah D`bpàkats Yr`hudtoà Tkdt`r

Eorbs oa tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r usk àgy gcl`r () e`r

pr`hudtoà>

, , , (5)

wfkrk , hka`tks pr`hudtovoty, wfodf e`gg`ws ca C\(3) pr`dkss.

Zk cssubk tfct kcdf eorb skts ots prodk uahkr tfk pr`hudkr durrkady prodoaj (YDY)sdfkbk. Oa tfos dcsk, tfk prèot bcxobozctoà pr`lgkb e`r tfk rkprkskatctovk Ncpcakskeorb oa tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r os cs e`gg`ws>

bcx, , Ω∑

, (:)

wfkrk , os c st`dfcstod hosdùat ecdt`r. Xfk prèot euadtoà (Ω) os jovka ly








3;

3, κ 3 , κ κ , cahΔ, hka`tks tfk prodk chnustbkat d`st, hkeoakh ly

Δ, < , /, , /, 3, wfkrk os tfk prodk chnustbkat d`st d`keeodokat.

Gkttoaj , cah , hka`tk, rkspkdtovkgy, tfk kxp`rt prodk è Ncpcaksk

trchclgk eoacg j``hs t` tfk [T cah tfk Y\D oa tfk obp`rtkr‟s g`dcg durrkady, tfk gcw èàk prodk bkcas tfct

, , , .

8.; Fùskf`gh Lkfcvo`r

Xfk rkprkskatctovk fùskf`gh bcxobozks tfk e`gg`woaj goektobk utogoty euadtoà>

μ ,∑

(33)

wfkrk hka`tks utogoty er`b cjjrkjctk dàsubptoà cah hka`tks

hosutogoty er`b gcl`r suppgy= cah cah crk jovka ly

3 33 ,

3 ,

wfkrk hka`tks tfk obp`rtcadk è fclot st`dm, cah cah rkspkdtovkgy crk tfkkgcstodoty è oatkrtkbp`rcg sulstotutoà oa dàsubptoà cah tfk Erosdf gcl`r suppgykgcstodoty.

Xfk luhjkt dàstrcoat è tfk fùskf`gh os jovka ly

, , 3 3 Δ, , 3 , Ω

Ω

Ω

, wfkrk

Δ, , 3 , 3 .




35

8.;.3 Kugkr Kquctoàs cah Gcl`r Tuppgy Hkdosoàs

Xfk dàsubptoà Kugkr kquctoà cah tfk làh Kugkr kquctoà crk jovka, rkspkdtovkgy,ly

3 3

,

, (3<)

3 3 3 Δ, , , (34)

wfkrk H, os c st`dfcstod hosdùat ecdt`r hkeoakh ly

H, ‼‼ .

Kquctoàs (3<) cah (34) hkbàstrctk tfct rosm-chnustkh uad`vkrkh oatkrkst pcroty f`ghs.Oa `tfkr w`rhs, c rosk oa kxtkracg hklt gkchs t` ca oadrkcsk oa eoacadoaj d`sts cah rosmprkboubs.

Xfk eorst `rhkr dàhotoà e`r gcl`r suppgy os jovka ly

‼

‼ . Chhotoàcggy,

‼ . 8.;.< E`rkoja Csskts

E`rkoja csskts fkgh ly Ncpcaksk fùskf`ghs crk jovka ly

3 3 Δ, , .

Xfk e`rkoja csskts hyacbod kquctoà os hodtctkh ly

, 3 Δ, , ,

wfkrk hka`tks tfk Ncpcaksk trchk lcgcadk, hkeoakh ly

, , , , , wfkrk , cah ,

crk rkspkdtovkgy Ncpca‟s trchk lcgcadk oa pcrts cah

d`bpàkats cjcoast tfk [T cah tfk Y\D, cah , cah , crk Ncpca‟s trchk

lcgcadk oa trchclgk eoacg j``hs wotf tfk [T cah tfk Y\D. Xfksk vcroclgks crk jovka ly

, ,, ,, , , ,, ,, ,

, ,, ,, , , ,, ,, . Oa stkchy stctk, kcdf dùatry‟s trchk lcgcadk os cssubkh t` lk zkr`. Xfct os, tfke`gg`woaj kquctoà f`ghs oa stkchy stctk>

XLCG XLCG XLCG XLCG 9 .




3:

8.5 Bàktcry Y`gody cah tfk Kxdfcajk \ctk

Bàktcry p`gody oa Ncpca cah tfk [T os pursukh wotf c stcahcrh Xcyg`r rugk tfct tcrjktstfk dàsubkr prodk oahkx (DYO) oaegctoà cah tfk jr`ss h`bkstod pr`hudt (JHY) jcp>

3 3 3 3 Ϗ 3 , (38)

wfkrk os c tcrjkt oaegctoà rctk, cah hka`tks c stkchy-stctk vcguk, `r tfk gkvkg

è p`tkatocg JHY.

Zk cssubk tfct tfk Y\D ch`pts c [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk, s` otsbàktcry p`gody os dàstrcoakh ly tfk h`ggcr pkj. Xfk Y\D‟s a`boacg oatkrkst rctk os

hktkrboakh kah`jkaùsgy t` mkkp tfk \BL—[T h`ggcr rctk, , eoxkh. Xfct os, ots

dfcajk os zkr`>

Θλ 9. 8.: Bcrmkt Dgkcroaj

Xfk bcrmkt dgkcroaj dàhotoàs e`r kcdf bcrmkt crk jovka oa tfk e`gg`woaj wcy.

Oa tfk gcl`r bcrmkt, gcl`r suppgy kqucgs gcl`r hkbcah>

,, , , , .

Oa tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats bcrmkt, tfk pr`hudtoà è pcrts cah d`bpàkats kqucgsh`bkstod hkbcah cah kxp`rts t` tfk [T cah tfk Y\D>

, s, , , , , , .

Oa tfk trchclgk eoacg j``hs bcrmkt, tfk pr`hudtoà è tfksk j``hs kqucgs h`bkstodhkbcah cah kxp`rts t` tfk [T cah tfk Y\D>

, s, , , , , , .

Oa tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs bcrmkt, tfksk j``h crk h`bkstodcggy pr`hudkh cahdàsubkh>

s , .

Oa tfk làh bcrmkt, tfk bcrmkt dgkcroaj dàhotoà os

, , , .




36

;. TOB[GCXO@A CACG_TOT @E C Y@TOXOUK T[YYG_TF@DM OA CA KBK\JOAJ KD@A@B_

[soaj tfk tfrkk-dùatry HTJK b`hkg, wk akxt kxcboak tfk bkdfcaosb wfkrkkbkrjoaj kdà`boks‟ suppgy sf`dms ceekdt bcdr`kdà`bod vcroclgks oa hkvkg`pkh

kdà`boks, pcrtodugcrgy tfkor oaegctoà rctks. Xfk suppgy sf`dm cacgyzkh fkrk os cp`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm oa tfk trchclgk eoacg j``hs (`r pr`hudt csskblgy) skdt`r oa

ca kbkrjoaj kdà`by (tfk Y\D). Xfos os tcatcbùat t` c p`sotovk sf`dm, , , oa tfk

Y\D vkrsoà è kquctoà (?).6 Xfk rkcsà e`r dàsohkroaj tfos typk è pr`hudtovoty sf`dmos tfk `lskrvctoà tfct kdà`bod jr`wtf oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks oa rkdkat ykcrs fcslkka tfk rksugt bcoagy è suppgy dcpcdoty kxpcasoà oa tfk g`w-vcguk-chhkh eoacg j``hscsskblgy skdt`r, rctfkr tfca oa tfk fojf-vcguk-chhkh oatkrbkhoctk j``hs pr`hudtoàskdt`r rkquoroaj chvcadkh tkdfa`g`joks.

Zk dca pr`vohk eurtfkr kxpgcactoàs è ecdt`rs lkfoah p`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dms oapr`hudt csskblgy skdt`rs oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks. @ur b`hkg cssubks tfct gcl`r os tfkàgy euahcbkatcg ecdt`r è pr`hudtoà. Cs c rksugt, oadrkcsks oa gcl`r pr`hudtovoty‘hukt` tfk rkcgg`dctoà è gcl`r er`b rurcg t` urlca crkcs, dcpotcg oavkstbkat, `r tkdfa`g`jy

trcasekr er`b e`rkoja bugtoactoàcg eorbs‘crk a`t kxpgodotgy b`hkgkh, lut tfky dca lkdàsohkrkh t` lk tfk keekdts è sudf h`bkstod gcl`r bojrctoà, dcpotcg cddubugctoàoadguhoaj e`rkoja horkdt oavkstbkat, cah trcasekrs è pr`hudtoà tkdfa`g`jy cahbcacjkrocg kxpkrtosk er`b e`rkoja sùrdks.

X` uahkrstcah tfk lcsod oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà bkdfcaosb è tfos b`hkg, wkprkskat tfk rksugts è sobugctoà cacgysos uahkr c skt è lcskgoak pcrcbktkrs. Zk tfkadàsohkr tfk keekdts è cgtkroaj tfksk lcskgoak pcrcbktkrs cah b`hkg skttoajs t`fojfgojft tfk obp`rtcadk è dkrtcoa ekcturks è tfk b`hkg oa hrovoaj tfk spkdoeod rksugts.B`rk spkdoeodcggy, wk kxcboak tfk keekdts è trchk strudturks, kxdfcajk rctk rkjobks,cah prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`r t` dgcroey tfk b`hkg‟s oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà bkdfcaosb.

;.3 Lcskgoak Ycrcbktkrs

Zk eorst hksdrolk tfk skttoaj è lcskgoak pcrcbktkrs oa tfk tfrkk-dùatry b`hkg. Eojurk< oggustrctks tfk cdtucg trchk strudturk lktwkka tfksk tfrkk dùatroks. Eojurk <Cd`bpcrks tfk trchk v`gubk (kxp`rts pgus obp`rts) è Ncpca cah tfk [T, cs rcto`s è tfkrkspkdtovk JHYs, wotf tfk Y\D. Xfk eojurk dàeorbs tfct Ncpca fcs c hkkpkr trchkrkgctoàsfop wotf tfk Y\D tfca h`ks tfk [T. Eojurk <L sf`ws tfk Y\D‟s trchk lcgcadkly j``hs wotf Ncpca cah tfk [T. Ot os dgkcr tfct tfk Y\D ruas sojaoeodcat trchksurpgusks oa eoacg j``hs (o.k., dàsubptoà j``hs cah dcpotcg j``hs) wotf l`tf Ncpcacah tfk [T. Eurtfkr, ot ruas c gcrjk trchk hkeodot oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats cahpr`dksskh j``hs wotf Ncpca, lut a`t wotf tfk [T. Xfksk `lskrvctoàs supp`rt tfkprkskadk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà oa trchk lktwkka tfk Y\D cah Ncpca, lut a`tlktwkka tfk Y\D cah tfk [T.

6 Fkrk, ot os cssubkh tfct tfk g`jcrotfb è tfk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm , e`gg`ws ca C\(3) pr`dkss, tfct os,ga , 3 ga ga, , ,

wfkrk os tfk stkchy-stctk vcguk è tfk sf`dm. Oa ùr b`hkg, wk cppgy c sf`dm t` , uahkr tfk

cssubptoà tfct 9.?.




3?

Eojurk <> Xrchk Ttrud turks è Ncpca, tfk Y\D, cah tfk [aotkh Ttctks

<C. Xrchk wotf tfk Y\D cs c \cto` è JHY è Ncpca cah tfk [aotkh Ttctks](kxp`rts t` tfk Y\D + obp`rts er`b tfk Y\D) / dùat ry‟s JHYR

<L. Xrchk Lcgcadk è tfk Y\D wotf Ncpca cah tfk [aotkh Ttctks

Y\D 2 Yk`pgk‟s \kpulgod è Dfoac.

Tùrdks> Oatkractoàcg Bàktcry Euah (OBE), Horkdtoà è Xrchk Ttctostods= \kskcrdf Oastotutk è Kdà`by,Xrchk cah Oahustry (\OKXO), \OKXO-XOH<939 = OBE, Z`rgh Kdà`bod @utg``m hctclcsk.

Xclgk < prkskats dcgolrctkh trchk lcgcadks oa stkchy stctk e`r tfk tfrkk dùatroks cswkgg cs lcskgoak pcrcbktkr vcguks uskh oa tfk b`hkg. Oa Xclgk <C, oa stkchy stctk, tfk`vkrcgg trchk lcgcadk e`r kcdf dùatry os cssubkh t` lk zkr`, wfogk logctkrcg trchklcgcadks crk a`t akdksscrogy zkr`. Xfk vcguks è tfksk dcgolrctkh logctkrcg trchklcgcadks crk dg`sk t` tfk cdtucg `lskrvkh hctc kxdkpt tfk Ncpca—[T cah Y\D—[Tlogctkrcg trchk lcgcadks oa eoacg j``hs. @lskrvkh hctc e`r <99; sf`w tfct Ncpca fcstrchk surpgusks l`tf oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats cah oa eoacg j``hs wotf tfk [T, cah tfctot fcs c trchk surpgus oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats cah c trchk hkeodot oa eoacg j``hs wotf tfk

9

3

<

4

8

;

5

?9 ?3 ?< ?4 ?8 ?; ?5 ?: ?6 ?? 99 93 9< 94 98 9; 95 9: 96 9?

Ncpca

[aotkh Ttctks

(%)

-59

-;9

-89

-49

-<9

-39

9

39

<9

49

89

;9

?9 ?< ?8 ?5 ?6 99 9< 98 95 96

Y\D's trchk lcgcadk wotf Ncpca

-;9

9

;9

399

3;9

<99

<;9

499

?9 ?< ?8 ?5 ?6 99 9< 98 95 96

Yrobcry j``hs

Yr`dksskh j``hs

Ycrts cah d`bpàkats

Dàsubptoà j``hs

Dcpotcg j``hs

(Loggoàs è h`ggcrs)

Y\D's trchk lcgcadk wotf tfk [aotkh Ttctks

(Loggoàs è h`ggcrs)






<3

<L. Lcskgoak Ycrcbktkr Ucguks

Ycrcbktkr Ucguk Hksdropto à

κ 3.; Kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka trchclgk cah aàtrchclgk j``hs

υ3 9.; Kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka f`bk cah e`rkoja pcrts cah d`bpàkats

υ< 3; Kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka f`bk cah e`rkoja eoacg j``hs

ε 4 Oavkrsk è tfk Erosdf kgcstodoty

ζ 5 Bcrm up (ζ/ (ζ＂3))ΥA 899 Yrodk chnustbkat d`st d`keeodokat e`r aàtrchclgk j``hs

Υ3 899 Yrodk chnustbkat d`st d`keeodokat e`r pcrts cah d`bpàkats

Υ< 899 Yrodk chnustbkat d`st d`keeodokat e`r eoacg j``hs

μ 3.94- .

Tulnkdtovk hosdùat ecdt`r

β 9.8 Tfcrk è eoacg j``hs oa t`tcg dàsubptoà

ld 9.64 Fclot pkrsostkadk

3/τ 9.6 Oavkrsk è kgcstodoty è oatkrtkbp`rcg sulstotutoà

Ϗo 9.6 Ykrsostkadk è tfk a`boacg oatkrkst rctk oa tfk Xcyg`r rugk

Ϗg 3.; D`keeodokat à oaegctoà oa tfk Xcyg`r rugk

Ϗy 9.; D`keeodokat à tfk jr`ss h`bkstod pr`hudt jcp oa tfk Xcyg`r rugk

Dcgolrctkh pcrcbktkrs e`r cjjrkjct`r è pcrts cah d`bpàkats, kquctoà (6)

9.4?

9.8;

9.44

9.44 9.4 9.46 9.<64 9.<; 9.<?

Dcgolrctkh pcrcbktkrs e`r cjjrkjct`r è eoacg j``hs, kquctoà (<)

9.3 9.4; 9.46 9.3 9.39 9.;6

9.6 9.;; 9.96

Tùrdks> \kskcrdf Oastotutk è Kdà`by, Xrchk cah Oahustry (\OKXO), \OKXO-XOH<939 = cah cutf`rs‟cssubptoàs.

;.< Lcskgoak Tobugctoà Cacgysos

Eojurk 4 subbcrozks tfk obpugsk rkspàsks è mky bcdr`kdà`bod vcroclgks uahkrtfk lcskgoak cssubptoàs. C p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D‟s trchclgk eoacg j``hs (`rpr`hudt csskblgy) skdt`r ceekdts a`t àgy tfk Y\D‟s bcdr`kdà`bod vcroclgks lut cgs`tf`sk oa Ncpca cah tfk [T cah tfk yka—[T h`ggcr kxdfcajk rctk tfrùjf oatkractoàcgspogg`vkr keekdts. Oa pcrtodugcr, c pr`hudtovoty sf`dm oa tfk Y\D drkctks hkegctoàcryprkssurks oa l`tf Ncpca cah tfk [T, wotf c jrkctkr hkegctoàcry obpcdt à Ncpca tfcaà tfk [T ct gkcst oa tfk eorst eovk pkro`hs. Xfos rksugt `ltcoas lkdcusk è tfkcsybbktrod trchk strudturks e`r tfk tfrkk dùatroks cah tfk Y\D‟s h`ggcr-pkjjkhkxdfcajk rctk rkjobk.

Xfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà è c p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D‟s pr`hudtcsskblgy skdt`r w`rms oa tfk e`gg`woaj wcy. Eorst, ot kxpcahs tfk pr`hudtoà è trchclgkeoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D (Eojurk 4L, t`p rojft), wfodf stobugctks hkbcah e`r pcrts cah

d`bpàkats rkquorkh e`r eoacg j``hs pr`hudtoà. Huk t` tfk g`w kgcstodoty è sulstotutoàe`r pcrts cah d`bpàkats cah tfk vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà trchk strudturk lktwkka tfkY\D cah Ncpca, tfk Y\D‟s rosoaj hkbcah e`r pcrts cah d`bpàkats os bkt ly tfkjrkctkr suppgy è tfksk oatkrbkhoctk j``hs ly Ncpcaksk eorbs (Eojurk 4L, t`p gket). Xfktrchk strudturk lktwkka tfk Y\D cah tfk [T os gcrjkgy àk è f`rozàtcg spkdocgozctoà,s` [T eorbs h` a`t kxpcah pr`hudtoà a`r kxp`rt è pcrts cah d`bpàkats, cs budf csh` Ncpcaksk eorbs. Xfus, tfk Y\D‟s pr`hudtovoty sf`dm cgtkrs tfk oatkractoàcgcgg`dctoà è pr`hudtoà cbàj tfk tfrkk dùatroks.




<<

Eojurk 4> Obpugsk \kspàsks t` c Y`sotovk Tuppgy Tf`dm t` tfk Y\D‟s Eoacg Csskblgy Tkdt`r

JHY 2 jr`ss h`bkstod pr`hudt, Y\D 2 Yk`pgk‟s \kpulgod è Dfoac, \BL 2 rkaboalo, [T 2 [aotkh Ttctks.

Tùrdk> Cutf`rs‟ d`bputctoà.

4C. Oaegctoà \ctk

-9.93

9

9.93

9.9<

9.94

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Ncpca

Y\D[T

@vkrcgg j``hs

-9.9<-9.93

99.939.9<9.949.98

9.9;9.95

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Aàtrchclgk j``hs

4L. Yr`hudtoà Cdtov oty

4D. Xrchk Lcgcadk (rcto` è JHY)

-9.96

-9.95

-9.98

-9.9<

9

9.9<

9.98

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Ycrts & d`bpàkats

-9.<

-9.3

9

9.3

9.<

9.4

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Eoacg j``hs

-9.<

-9.3

9

9.3

9.<

9.4

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

JHY

-9.9<

-9.93

9

9.93

9.9<

9.94

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Aàtrchclgk j``hs

-9.8

-9.4

-9.<

-9.3

9

9.3

9.<

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

Ycrts & d`bp'sEoacg j``hsX`tcg

Ncpca

-9.8

-9.4

-9.<

-9.3

9

9.3

9.<

3 4 ; : ? 33 3 4 3; 3 : 3?

[T

-9.4-9.<-9.3

99.39.<9.49.89.;

9.59.:

3 4 ; : ? 33 3 4 3; 3 : 3?

Y\D

4H. Kxdfcajk \ctk (akjctovk soja bkcas yka cpprkdoctoà)

-9.99;

-9.998

-9.994

-9.99<

-9.993

9

9.993

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

_ka-\BL (boaus> yka cppr.)

_ka-H`ggcr (boaus> yka cppr.)

A`boacg kxdfcajk rctk

-9.9;

9

9.9;

9.39.3;

9.<

9.<;

9.4

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9


H`ggcr-\BL (boaus> h`ggcr cppr.)


\kcg kxdfcajk rctk




<4

Tkdàh, tfk pr`hudtoà kxpcasoà è trchclgk eoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D kxkrts h`wawcrhprkssurk à prodks è tfksk j``hs oa tfk jg`lcg bcrmkt. Lkdcusk è tfk fojf kgcstodotyè sulstotutoà e`r tfksk eoacg j``hs, tfk Y\D‟s kxp`rt è tfksk j``hs kxpcahs wfogkpr`hudtoà è tfksk j``hs hkdgoaks cah obp`rts rosk oa l`tf Ncpca cah tfk [T. Xfosgkchs t` c trchk surpgus oa tfk Y\D cah trchk hkeodots oa l`tf Ncpca cah tfk [T.F`wkvkr, tfk sozk è tfk trchk hkeodot oa Ncpca os sbcggkr tfca oa tfk [T (Eojurk 4D, gketcah dkatkr) lkdcusk Ncpca kxp`rts pcrts cah d`bpàkats t` tfk Y\D wfogk tfk [Th`ks a`t.

Xforh, tfk Y\D‟s p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm drkctks oaegctoà oa tfk Y\D cah rkhudksoaegctoà oa Ncpca cah tfk [T (Eojurk 4C). Xfk rosk oa tfk Y\D‟s oaegctoà rksugts er`brcpoh oadrkcsks oa aàtrchclgk j``hs prodks. Xfct os, c p`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm oa tfkY\D‟s trchclgk eoacg j``hs skdt`r kxpcahs ots suppgy cah tfus g`wkrs tfkor prodks.F`wkvkr, c p`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm cgg`ws a`boacg wcjks t` rosk, wfodf pusfks uptfk prodk è aàtrchclgk j``hs, b`rk tfca èeskttoaj c hkdgoak oa trchclgk eoacg j``hsprodks, cah tfus gkchs t` fojfkr jkakrcg-prodk oaegctoà. Xfos rksugt os dàsostkat wotf tfkLcgcssc—Tcbukgsà fyp`tfksos, wfodf csskrts tfct c dùatry‟s jkakrcg oaegctoà rctk osfojf‘tfkrkly dcusoaj rkcg kxdfcajk rctk cpprkdoctoà `vkr tobk‘wfka pr`hudtovotyjr`wtf os fojfkr oa tfk trchclgk j``hs oahustry tfca oa tfk aàtrchclgk j``hs

oahustry.39

Xfk oaegctoà rctks oa l`tf Ncpca cah tfk [T hkdgoak b`hkrctkgy bcoagy lkdcusk tfkkxpcasoà è suppgy è tfk Y\D-bchk trchclgk eoacg j``hs kxkrts h`wawcrh prkssurkà tfk prodk è tfksk j``hs jg`lcggy. Xfk oahudkh kxpcasoà è hkbcah e`r pcrts cahd`bpàkats dca drkctk upwcrh prkssurk à tfk prodk è tfksk oatkrbkhoctk j``hsjg`lcggy, lut tfos obpcdt os skdàhcry cah b`rk tfca èeskt ly tfk oaotocg jg`lcg hkdgoakoa trchclgk eoacg j``hs prodks. Oa chhotoà, tfk h`wawcrh prkssurk à oaegctoà rctks osjrkctkr oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T (Eojurk 4C). Xfk rkcsà e`r tfos hoeekrkadk os tfct tfkobp`rt sfcrk è trchclgk eoacg j``hs os fojfkr oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T, wfodf drkctks cjrkctkr h`wawcrh prkssurk à Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk.

Eùrtf, tfk hoeekrkatocg oatkractoàcg spogg`vkr obpcdts è tfk Y\D‟s suppgy sf`dm à tfktrchk lcgcadk oa Ncpca cah tfk [T dca fcvk dàskqukadks e`r tfk yka—[T h`ggcr

kxdfcajk rctk cah oaegctoà rctks oa tfk tw` dùatroks. Lkdcusk Ncpca fcs c sbcggkr`vkrcgg trchk hkeodot tfca h`ks tfk [T, tfk Ncpcaksk yka cpprkdoctks cjcoast tfk [Th`ggcr (Eojurk 4H). Xfk yka cpprkdoctks‘`r tfk [T h`ggcr hkprkdoctks‘lkdcusk tfkb`hkg cssubks tfk prkskadk è trcascdtoàs d`sts rkquoroaj ca chhotoàcg rktura oaoatkractoàcg eoacadocg bcrmkts cs c dùatry cddubugctks kxtkracg hklt. Zotf c jrkctkrrosk oa tfk trchk hkeodot‘cah tfk dàskqukat cddubugctoà è kxtkracg hklt‘oa tfk [T,tfk rkcg rkturas à [T-ossukh làhs bust rosk, chnustkh e`r trcascdtoàs d`sts, dcusoaj[T h`ggcr hkprkdoctoà. Cs tfk \BL os cssubkh t` lk pkjjkh t` tfk [T h`ggcr, otdcaa`t cpprkdoctk cjcoast tfk h`ggcr cah cs c rksugt tfk yka os e`rdkh t` cpprkdoctk. Xfkyka‟s cpprkdoctoà drkctks eurtfkr h`wawcrh prkssurk à obp`rt prodks, cjjrcvctoaj tfk

39 Tkk \clcacg (<99?), \clcacg cah Xukstc (<939), cah Lkrmc cah Hkvkrkux (<939) e`r hosdussoàs è

tfk Lcgcssc—Tcbukgsà keekdt cah tfk rkcg kxdfcajk rctk. Oa c bugto-dùatry jkakrcg kquogolroub b`hkg,wfktfkr ca oadrkcsk oa pr`hudtovoty oa tfk trchclgk j``hs oahustry gkchs t` tfk dùatry‟s rkcg kxdfcajkrctk cpprkdoctoà hkpkahs à cssubptoàs bchk. @ak ecdt`r ceekdtoaj tfk rksugt os tfk sozk è tfkkgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka h`bkstodcggy pr`hudkh j``hs cah obp`rtkh j``hs. Zfka tfk kgcstodotyè sulstotutoà os g`w, tfk rkcg kxdfcajk rctk tkahs t` hkprkdoctk lkdcusk tfk g`w kgcstodoty bkcas tfcttfk rkgctovk prodk kgcstodoty os cgs` g`w cah, tfkrke`rk, tfk kxpcasoà è suppgy huk t` fojfkr pr`hudtovotygkchs t` sulstcatocg prodk hkdgoaks. Xfk obpcdt è tfos prodk hkdgoak dca lk jrkctkr tfca oadrkcsks oaaàtrchclgk j``hs prodks, gkchoaj t` jkakrcg prodk hkdgoaks cah rkcg kxdfcajk rctk hkprkdoctoà.




<8

hkegctoàcry prkssurk oa Ncpca. 33 Xfk b`rk d`bpktotovk tfk Ncpcaksk pcrts cahd`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r os oa d`bpcrosà t` tfct è tfk [T, tfk b`rk sojaoeodcattfk yka cpprkdoctoà cah prodk hkegctoà prkssurk os.

Eoacggy, oa tfk Y\D, JHY rosks lkdcusk c suppgy sf`dm cujbkats tfk suppgy dcpcdotyè tfk kdà`by (Eojurk 4L, l`tt`b gket). Xfk pr`hudtoà è l`tf trchclgk eoacg j``hs

cah aàtrchclgk j``hs rosks cs gcl`r sfoets cwcy er`b tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkatspr`hudtoà skdt`r t`wcrh tfk aàtrchclgk oahustry. Oa Ncpca cah tfk [T, JHY hkdgoakscs fùskf`ghs eoah ot cttrcdtovk t` rkhudk gcl`r suppgy, cs oa tfk dcsk è tfk usucg rkcglusoakss dydgk b`hkg. Lut Ncpcaksk JHY hkdgoaks gkss tfca [T JHY lkdcusk tfkpcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r kxpcahs b`rk oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T.3<

;.4 \`gk è tfk Xrchk Ttrudturk

Xfk csybbktrod trchk strudturks cssubkh e`r tfk Y\D, Ncpca, cah tfk [T crk caobp`rtcat ekcturk è tfk b`hkg tfct drkctks jrkctkr hkegctoàcry prkssurks oa Ncpcatfca oa tfk [T oa rkspàsk t` c pr`hudtovoty sf`dm oa tfk Y\D. Xw` mky hktkrboacats ètfk trchk strudturks e`r tfk tfrkk dùatroks crk tfk hkjrkk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoàlktwkka tfk Y\D cah Ncpca (rkprkskatkh ly tfk sfcrk è Ncpca-bchk pcrts cah

d`bpàkats rkquorkh e`r tfk pr`hudtoà è trchclgk eoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D) cah tfkkgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudkh oa hoeekrkat dùatroks.X` vkroey tfk obp`rtcadk è trchk strudturks e`r tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoàbkdfcaosb cah, b`rk spkdoeodcggy, obpcdts à Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctks, wk kxcboak f`wdfcajks oa trchk strudturks bcy cgtkr tfk lkadfbcrm sobugctoà rksugts.

;.4.3 Ukrtodcg Tpkdocgozctoà

Eorst, wk dàsohkr f`w tfk dfcajoaj hkjrkk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà lktwkka Ncpcacah tfk Y\D bcy ceekdt tfk oatkractoàcg spogg`vkrs è tfk Y\D‟s suppgy sf`dm. Oa tfklcskgoak sdkacro`, wk cssubk c rkgctovkgy fojf hkjrkk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoàlktwkka Ncpca cah tfk Y\D= tfct os, tfk obp`rt sfcrk è Ncpca-bchk pcrts cahd`bpàkats rkquorkh e`r tfk pr`hudtoà è eoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D os 9.8;. Xfos bkcas

tfct tfk sfcrks è [T-bchk cah tfk Y\D-bchk pcrts cah d`bpàkats akkhkh e`r tfkpr`hudtoà è eoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D crk rkgctovkgy g`w.34 Xfos cssubptoà gkchs t` tfkspkdoeod pcttkras è logctkrcg trchk lcgcadks oa tfk stkchy stctk> tfk Y\D ruas trchksurpgusks oa eoacg j``hs wotf Ncpca cah oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats wotf tfk [T cah ctrchk hkeodot oa pcrts cah d`bpàkats wotf Ncpca= Ncpca ruas trchk surpgusks oa pcrtscah d`bpàkats wotf tfk Y\D cah tfk [T cah c trchk hkeodot oa trchclgk eoacg j``hswotf tfk Y\D.

X` cacgyzk tfk obpcdt è tfk dfcajoaj hkjrkk è vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà lktwkka tfkY\D cah Ncpca, wk dàsohkr cgtkractovk vcguks e`r tfk obp`rt sfcrk è Ncpca-bchkpcrts cah d`bpàkats rkquorkh e`r pr`hudt csskblgy oa tfk Y\D. Tpkdoeodcggy, wk

dfcajk tfk vcguks è oa kquctoà (6) er`b tfk lcskgoak pcrcbktkr è 9.8; t` g`wkr

vcguks (9.4;, 9.<;, 9.3;, cah 9.9;). Xclgk 4 oggustrctks f`w dfcajoaj tfk lcskgoak

33 Xfk kxtkat t` wfodf tfk a`boacg kxdfcajk rctk ceekdts tfk prodk hkpkahs à tfk prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`r

`r tfk kxtkat è kxdfcajk rctk pcss-tfrùjf. Oa ùr b`hkg, YDY os cssubkh, wfkrk tfk pcss-tfrùjf osgcrjk. Zk hosduss tfk obpcdt è dfcajoaj tfos cssubptoà gctkr oa tfk pcpkr.

3< Ot os cgs` obp`rtcat t` a`tk tfct, cs `lskrvkh oa tfk oaegctoà rctks e`r trchclgk j``hs oa Eojurk 4C, c

p`sotovk suppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D obpr`vks Ncpca‟s tkrbs è trchk cah oadrkcsks dàsubptoà gkvkgs.

34 Zk cssubk tfct tfk sfcrks è Ncpca-bchk pcrts cah d`bpàkats rkquorkh e`r tfk pr`hudtoà è eoacg

j``hs crk tfk scbk cdr`ss dùatroks.






<5

Eojurk 8> Obpugsk \kspàsks uahkr Cgtkractovk Tfcrks è Ncpcaksk Ycrts cahD`bpàkats [skh oa tfk Y\D

JHY 2 jr`ss h`bkstod pr`hudt, Y\D 2 Yk`pgk‟s \kpulgod è Dfoac, [T 2 [aotkh Ttctks.

A`tk> Xfk sfcrk è Ncpcaksk pcrts cah d`bpàkats oa tfk Y\D bkcas tfk sfcrk è Ncpca-bchk pcrts cahd`bpàkats tfct crk rkquorkh e`r tfk pr`hudtoà è eoacg j``hs oa tfk Y\D. Zotf c hkdgoak oa tfos vcguk,d`bpktotovkakss è Ncpcaksk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r hkdgoaks.


8C. Ncpca's Oaegctoà \ctk 8L. Ncpca—[T Oaegctoà \ctk Hoeekrkatocgakjc vk s ja bkcas cpca s rk c vk k c à

8D. Xrchk Lcgcadk (rcto` è JHY)

Ncpca's trchk lcgcadk [T trchk lcgcadk

’9.99:

’9.995

’9.99;

’9.998

’9.994

’9.99<

’9.993

9

9.993

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

Lkadfbcrm (Tfcrk ̀ e

Ncpcaksk pcrts> 9.8;)Tfcrk ̀ e Ncpcaksk pcrts>

9.4;Tfcrk ̀ e Ncpcaksk pcrts>

9.<;Tfcrk ̀ e Ncpcaksk pcrts>

9.3;Tfcrk ̀ e Ncpcaksk pcrts>

9.9;’9.994;

’9.994

’9.99<;

’9.99<

’9.993;

’9.993

’9.999;

9

9.999;

9.993

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

’9.<<;

’9.<

’9.3:;

’9.3;

’9.3<;

’9.3

’9.9:;

’9.9;

’9.9<;

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

’9.<<;

’9.<

’9.3:;

’9.3;

’9.3<;

’9.3

’9.9:;

’9.9;

’9.9<;

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

8H. _ka—[T H`ggcr Kxdfcajk \ctk (akjctovk soja bkcas yka cpprkdoctoà)

’9.998

’9.994

’9.99<

’9.993

9

9.993

9.99<

9.994

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39 33 3< 34 38 3; 35 3: 36 3? <9




<:

;.4.< Kgcstodo ty è Tulstotut oà

Xfk lcskgoak b`hkg cssubks c g`w kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkka pcrts cahd`bpàkats pr`hudkh oa hoeekrkat dùatroks wfogk tfk kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà lktwkkatrchclgk eoacg j``hs pr`hudkh oa hoeekrkat dùatroks os cssubkh t` lk fojf. Xfoscssubptoà os ca`tfkr ecdt`r hktkrboaoaj tfk trchk strudturks è tfk tfrkk dùatroks

stuhokh cah jkakrctoaj tfk hoeekrkat rkcdtoàs è Ncpcaksk cah [T oaegctoà rctks t` tfkY\D‟s pr`hudtovoty sf`dm. X` dàeorb tfos pòat, wk dàhudt eurtfkr sobugctoà cacgysosly cssuboaj c fojfkr vcguk e`r tfk kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà e`r pcrts cah d`bpàkats=tfct os, tfk pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudkh oa Ncpca, tfk [T, cah tfk Y\D crk b`rk

f`b`jkakùs. Tpkdoeodcggy, oa tfos sobugctoà, wk rcosk tfk vcguks e`r , , cah oa

kquctoà (6) er`b tfk lcskgoak vcguk è 9.; t` c fojfkr vcguk è 3;, wfogk bcoatcoaoaj

tfk scbk lcskgoak vcguks e`r , , cah oa kquctoà (<) ct 3;.

Eojurk ; oggustrctks tfos sobugctoà‟s rksugts. Zotf c fojfkr vcguk è tfk kgcstodoty èsulstotutoà lktwkka pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudkh oa tfk tfrkk dùatroks, c p`sotovksuppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D‟s pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r stobugctks hkbcah e`r pcrts cahd`bpàkats wfodf crk a`w suppgokh ly cgg eorbs orrkspkdtovk è wfktfkr tfky crkNcpcaksk, [T, `r Y\D eorbs. Xfkrke`rk, Ncpca cah tfk [T rkspàh vortucggy oa tfk

scbk bcaakr oa tkrbs è pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà (Eojurk ;L, t`p gket) cahtrchk lcgcadks (Eojurk ;D). Cs c rksugt, a` sojaoeodcat hoeekrkadks crk `lskrvkhlktwkka Ncpcaksk cah [T oaegctoà rctks (Eojurk ;C).

Eojurk ;> Obpugsk \kspàsks wotf c Fojfkr Kgcstodoty è Tulstotut oà oa tfkYr`hudtoà è Ycrts cah D`bpàkats

;C. Oaegctoà \ctk

-9.94

-9.9<

-9.93

9

9.93

9.9<

9.94

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

NcpcaY\D[T

@vkrcgg j``hs

-9.9<

-9.93

9

9.93

9.9<

9.94

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Aàtrchclgk j``hs

;L. Yr`hudtoà Cdtovo ty

-9.5

-9.8

-9.<

9

9.<

9.8

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Ycrts & d`bpàkats

-9.8

-9.<

9

9.<

9.8

9.5

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Eoacg j``hs

-9.3

-9.9;

9

9.9;

9.3

9.3;9.<

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

JHY

9

9.93

9.9<

9.949.98

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9

Aàtrchclgk j``hs




<6


A`tk> Zotf ca oadrkcsk oa tfk kgcstodoty è sulstotutoà er`b tfk lcskgoak vcguk è 9.; t` 3;, Ncpca-bchk pcrtscah d`bpàkats lkd`bk b`rk f`b`jkakùs t` [T- cah Y\D-bchk pcrts cah d`bpàkats.


Xfus, tfos rksugt rkceeorbs tfk bcn`r r`gk pgcykh ly Ncpcaksk eorbs oa tfk pr`hudtoàcah kxp`rt è fojfgy s`pfostodctkh pcrts cah d`bpàkats e`r wfodf sulstotutoà oshoeeodugt, oa kxpgcoaoaj hoeekrkat pcttkras è Ncpcaksk cah [T oaegctoà rctks oa tfkprkskadk è c Y\D p`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm.

;.8 \`gk è tfk Kxdfcajk \ctk \kjobkOa tfk lcskgoak b`hkg, tfk \BL os euggy pkjjkh t` tfk [T h`ggcr s` tfk \BL—[T h`ggcra`boacg kxdfcajk rctk os dàstcat. Oa rkcgoty, f`wkvkr, tfk \BL os a`t euggy pkjjkh(pcrtodugcrgy soadk Nugy <99;) cah egudtuctks b`hkrctkgy cjcoast tfk h`ggcr. Oa rkdkatykcrs, tfk Y\D bàktcry cutf`rotoks fcvk ch`ptkh c tojft bàktcry p`gody t` supprkssfojf oaegctoà cah fojf rkcg kstctk prodks, rksugtoaj oa c b`hkrctk cpprkdoctoà è tfk\BL cjcoast tfk h`ggcr. Aàktfkgkss, tfk Y\D cutf`rotoks stogg tojftgy bcacjk tfk\BL—[T h`ggcr kxdfcajk rctk t` cvòh gcrjk rctk egudtuctoàs.

X` fojfgojft tfk obp`rtcadk è tfk Y\D‟s kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk cah bàktcry p`godoksoa ceekdtoaj tfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà è tfk Y\D‟s suppgy sf`dm, wk akxt kxcboakf`w tfk lcskgoak sobugctoàs crk ceekdtkh ly oatr`hudoaj cgtkractovk kxdfcajk rctk cahbàktcry p`gody rkjobks. Zk a`w dàsohkr hoeekrkat kxdfcajk rctk cah bàktcry

p`gody rkjobks oa tfk Y\D= oastkch è c [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh rkjobk,Θ 9, wfkrk tfk

a`boacg \BL—[T h`ggcr kxdfcajk rctk, , os dàstcat, wk cssubk c Xcyg`r-rugk-gomkbàktcry p`gody wotf c b`rk egkxolgk kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk>

3 3 3 3 Ϗ 3 Θ .

;D. Xrchk Lcgcadk (rcto` è JHY)

;H. Kxdfcajk \ctk (akjctovk soja bkcas yka cpprkdoctoà)

-9.6

-9.5

-9.8

-9.<9

9.<

9.8

9.5

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

Ycrts & d`bp'sEoacg j``hsX`tcg

Ncpca

-9.6

-9.5

-9.8

-9.<9

9.<

9.8

9.5

3 4 ; : ? 3 3 34 3 ; 3: 3 ?

[T

-3.;

-3

-9.;9

9.;

3

3.;

3 4 ; : ? 33 3 4 3; 3 : 3?

Y\D

-9.99;

9

9.99;

9.93

9.93;

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9



A`boacg k xdfcajk rctk

-9.9;

9

9.9;

9.3

9.3;

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39333<34383;353:363?<9


H`ggcr-\BL (boaus> h`ggcr cppr.)


\kcg kxdfcajk rctk






49


A`tk> Xfk aublkr (k.j., ‗9‒ `r ‗3,999‒) oahodctks tfk vcguk è Ϗk oa kcdf sobugctoà. Zotf c hkdgoak oa tfosvcguk, tfk Y\D‟s bàktcry p`gody tkahs t`wcrh jrkctkr kxdfcajk rctk egkxologoty cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr.


Xfos cacgysos dàeorbs tfct tfk Y\D‟s ch`ptoà è c [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctk

rkjobk os ca obp`rtcat ecdt`r oa jkakrctoaj Ncpca‟s hkegctoàcry rkspàsk t` cpr`hudtovoty sf`dm oa tfk Y\D. Xfos sujjksts tfct, cs tfk Y\D b`vks t` jrkctkrkxdfcajk rctk egkxologoty, tfk \BL cpprkdoctoà dùgh botojctk hkegctoàcry prkssurks oaNcpca.

;.; \`gk è Yrodk-Tkttoaj Lkfcvo`r

Ca`tfkr ecdt`r dcusoaj tfk hoeekrkat oaegctoà rctk rkcdtoàs oa Ncpca cah tfk [T bcy lktfk gcrjk pcss-tfrùjf è tfk a`boacg kxdfcajk rctk t` prodks, `r tfk cssubptoà èYDY. Ly dàtrcst, oa tfk dcsk è g`dcg durrkady prodoaj (GDY), wfkrk h`bkstod eorbs sktprodks oa tfk obp`rtkrs‟ durrkady, prodoaj t` tfk bcrmkt rkhudks tfk sf`rt-tkrb a`boacgkxdfcajk rctk pcss-tfrùjf. Xfus, oe eorbs dfcajk tfkor prodk skttoaj lkfcvo`r er`bYDY t` GDY, àk bcy `lskrvk hoeekrkat rkcdtoàs oa Ncpcaksk cah [T oaegctoà rctks,d`bpcrkh t` tfk lcskgoak.35

35 Fucaj cah Gou (<995) cacgyzkh tfk hoeekrkadks oa tfk obpcdt è prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`r usoaj ca

oatkractoàcg vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà b`hkg.

5L. Xrchk Lcgcadk rc ` ̀

5D. Ncpca's Oaegctoà \ctk

Ncpca [T Y\D

’9.36

’9.35

’9.38

’9.3<

’9.3

’9.96

’9.95

’9.98

’9.9<

3 4 ; : ? 3 3 34 3; 3: 3?

’9.36

’9.35

’9.38

’9.3<

’9.3

’9.96

’9.95

’9.98

’9.9<

3 4 ; : ? 3 3 34 3; 3: 3?

9.9;

9.3

9.3;

9.<

9.<;

9.4

3 4 ; : ? 33 34 3; 3: 3?

’9.996

’9.995

’9.998

’9.99<

9

9.99<

9.998

9.995

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39 33 3< 34 38 3; 35 3: 36 3? <9

9 (Eg`ctoaj rctk)

3

39

399

3999 (Dg`sk t` h`ggcr pkj)




43

;.;.3 E`rbugctoà è G`dcg Durrkady Yrodoaj

[ahkr GDY, tfk prèot bcxobozctoà pr`lgkb è c rkprkskatctovk Ncpcaksk eorb oa tfk

pcrts cah d`bpàkats pr`hudtoà skdt`r, , os cs e`gg`ws>

bcx, ,, ,, ∓ , Ω

∑

,

wfkrk

Ω , ,, 3 Δ,

, 3 , , 3 Δ,

, 3 , , 3 Δ, .

Xfct os, uahkr GDY, kcdf eorb skts ots prodk e`r kcdf dùatry‟s bcrmkt ly hka`boactoaj

ot oa tfk durrkady è tfk pcrtakr dùatry, wfodf oatr`hudks prodk hosdroboactoà cdr`ssbcrmkts s` tfct pr`hudts crk a`t akdksscrogy prodkh tfk scbk. Oa dàtrcst, oa tfklcskgoak dcsk è YDY, tfkrk os a` prodk hosdroboactoà cs c eorb oa tfk trchclgk j``hsoahustry skts c soajgk prodk e`r l`tf tfkor h`bkstod cah kxp`rt bcrmkts. C sobogcrbcxobozctoà pr`lgkb os s`gvkh ly tfk rkprkskatctovk eorb oa tfk trchclgk eoacg j``hsskdt`r.

;.;.< Keekdts è Yrodk Tkttoaj Lkfcvo`r

Eojurk : oggustrctks tfk obpugsk rkspàsks è Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk cah tfk yka—[Th`ggcr kxdfcajk rctk. Zk dàsohkr tw` kxtrkbk dcsks è cgg eorbs oa c dùatry ch`ptoaj

kotfkr YDY `r GDY.3: T` wk dàhudt kojft (< Ú < Ú <) sobugctoàs usoaj YDY cah GDYe`r tfk skttoaj è kxp`rt prodks ly eorbs oa tfk tfrkk dùatroks. Xclgk 8 prkskats tfksk

kojft pcttkras. D`bpcroaj tfk tw` kxtrkbk dcsks è tfk lkadfbcrm (YYY wfkrk eorbsoa tfk tfrkk dùatroks ch`pt YDY) cah tfk d`bpgktk `pp`sotk (GGG wfkrk eorbs oa tfktfrkk dùatroks ch`pt GDY), Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctk os g`wkr uahkr GGG tfca uahkr YYY oatfk eorst tfrkk pkro`hs (Xclgk :C). Ot os ma`wa tfct tfk kxdfcajk rctk pcss-tfrùjf osgcrjkr uahkr YDY tfca uahkr GDY. Xfus, tfk dcsk è GGG rkhudks Ncpca‟s oaegctoà rctkcs tfk yka cpprkdoctoà b`rk tfca èeskts tfk kxdfcajk rctk pcss-tfrùjf keekdt(Eojurk :L).36

3: Oa rkcgoty, f`wkvkr, [T kxp`rtkrs cah obp`rtkrs tkah t` hka`boactk tfkor j``hs trchkh oa tfk [T h`ggcr

(h`ggcr prodoaj). Eurtfkrb`rk, wfka skgkdtoaj c dàtrcdt durrkady, tfk dàsohkrctoà è c eorb‟s bcrmktsfcrk bcy gkch t` c spkdoeod prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`r.

36 Oa tfos dcsk, ot turas ùt tfct tfk vcroclgks e`r pr`hudtoà cdtovotoks, trchk lcgcadks, cah `tfkrs hoeekr gottgk

er`b tfk lcskgoak. Zotf GDY, tfk yka cpprkdoctks sojaoeodcatgy cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr d`bpcrkh t` tfklcskgoak, lut lkdcusk tfk prodk pcss-tfrùjf è kxdfcajk rctk dfcajks os gobotkh, tfk hoeekrkadklktwkka Ncpcaksk cah [T oaegctoà rctks tkahs t` lk sbcggkr. Lktts cah Hkvkrkux (<999) cah `tfkrsa`tkh tfct oa tfk dcsk è GDY, egudtuctoàs è tfk a`boacg kxdfcajk rctk lkd`bk gcrjk.




4<

Eojurk :> Obpugsk \kspàsks uahkr Cgtkractovk Yrodk-Tkttoaj Lkfcvo`rs

A`tk> Xclgk 8 pr`vohks hkeoaotoàs è cgtkractovk d`bloactoàs è prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`rs.


Xclgk 8> Kxp`rt Yrodk Tkttoaj Lkfcvo`r oa Cgtkractovk D`bloactoàs

D`bloactoà Ncpcaksk eorbs [T eorbs Y\D eorbs

YYY (lcskgoak) YDY YDY YDY

YYG YDY YDY GDY

YGY YDY GDY YDY

YGG YDY GDY GDY

GYY GDY YDY YDY

GYG GDY YDY GDYGGY GDY GDY YDY

GGG GDY GDY GDY

GDY 2 g`dcg durrkady prodoaj, YDY 2 pr`hudkr durrkady prodoaj.

Tùrdk> Cutf`rs‟ cssubptoàs.

:C. Ncpca's Oaegcto à \ctk

:L. _ka—[T H`ggcr Kxdfcajk \ctk (akjctovk soja bkcas yka cpprkdoctoà)

-9.93

-9.996

-9.995

-9.998

-9.99<

9

9.99<

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39 33 3< 34 38 3; 35 3: 36 3? <9

Lkadfbcrm (YYY) YGG

YYG YGY

GYY GYG

GGY GGG

-9.938

-9.93<

-9.93

-9.996

-9.995

-9.998

-9.99<

9

9.99<

9.998

3 < 4 8 ; 5 : 6 ? 39 33 3< 34 38 3; 35 3: 36 3? <9

Lkadfbcrm (YYY) YGG

YYG YGY

GYY GYG

GGY GGG




44

Xfos cacgysos hkbàstrctks tfct c dfcajk oa tfk kxp`rt prodk-skttoaj lkfcvo`r è eorbser`b YDY t` GDY dca eurtfkr chh hkegctoàcry prkssurks oa Ncpca, lut tfk hoeekrkadk ossbcgg.3?

5. D@ADG[TO@AT

Zk fcvk kxcboakh tfk p`ssologoty tfct p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boksrkhudk oaegctoà rctks oa hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks. @a tfk lcsos è prkvoùs kbporodcgstuhoks à tfk obpcdt è kbkrjoaj kdà`by suppgy sf`dms à oaegctoà rctks oa tfk [Tcah Kur`pk cah ùr akw kbporodcg rksugts à Ncpca, wk dàdguhk tfct tfksk sf`dmsgomkgy kxpcahkh hkvkg`pkh kdà`boks‟ obp`rts è dfkcp j``hs er`b kbkrjoajkdà`boks cah, tfkrkly, rkhudkh tfkor oaegctoà rctks. Zk fcvk cgs` `lskrvkh tfct tfksuppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks gomkgy fch c jrkctkr obpcdt à tfk oaegctoà rctkoa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T cah Kur`pk.

Xfka, wk fcvk dàstrudtkh c tfrkk-dùatry HTJK b`hkg e`r Ncpca, tfk [T, cah tfkY\D, oad`rp`rctoaj prodk rojohoty, csybbktrod trchk strudturks, cah spkdoeod kxdfcajkrctk rkjobks, t` cacgyzk tfk bkdfcaosb è oatkractoàcg trcasbossoàs tfct c p`sotovk

suppgy sf`dm oa tfk Y\D dca jkakrctk. Xfk b`hkg fcs fojfgojftkh tfk obp`rtcatekcturks è (o) hkkp vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà lktwkka Ncpca cah tfk Y\D d`bpcrkh wotftfct lktwkka tfk [T cah tfk Y\D, cah (oo) tfk Y\D‟s [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctkrkjobk wfogk cssuboaj eugg egkxologoty è tfk yka cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr. Xfk cacgysos fcssf`wa tfct tfksk ekcturks pgcy mky r`gks oa kxpgcoaoaj tfk hoeekrkatocg obpcdts è tfkY\D‟s pr`hudtovoty sf`dm à tfk oaegctoà rctks oa Ncpca cah tfk [T= tfct os, oa drkctoajjrkctkr hkegctoàcry obpcdt à Ncpca tfca à tfk [T.

Xfk oatkractoàcg trcasbossoà bkdfcaosb dca lk kxpgcoakh oa tfk e`gg`woaj wcy.Zfka c p`sotovk pr`hudtovoty sf`dm `ddurs oa tfk Y\D‟s pr`hudt csskblgy skdt`r, tfkY\D‟s pr`hudtoà cah kxp`rt è eoacg j``hs kxpcah cah Ncpcaksk cah [T obp`rts ètfksk j``hs kxpcah. Xfk Y\D‟s pr`hudtoà kxpcasoà stobugctks tfk dùatry‟shkbcah e`r pcrts cah d`bpàkats cs tfky crk akkhkh e`r tfk pr`hudtoà è eoacg j``hs.Lkoaj c d`bpktotovk suppgokr è tfksk pcrts cah d`bpàkats oa vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà,Ncpca oadrkcsks ots kxp`rts è tfksk oatkrbkhoctkh j``hs t` tfk Y\D, wfogk tfk [T,wfodf kajcjks gcrjkgy oa f`rozàtcg spkdocgozctoà, h`ks a`t. Cs c rksugt, cgtfùjf l`tfNcpca cah tfk [T kxpkrokadk trchk hkeodots wotf tfk Y\D lkdcusk è oadrkcsks oaobp`rts è eoacg j``hs, Ncpca‟s trchk hkeodot wotf tfk Y\D os sbcggkr tfca tfct è tfk[T.<9 C sbcggkr trchk hkeodot oa Ncpca tfca oa tfk [T obpgoks tfct tfk akkh t` eoacadk tfkhkeodot os jrkctkr oa tfk [T tfca oa Ncpca, tfkrkly gkchoaj t` yka cpprkdoctoà cjcoast

3? @ak bcy csm wfodf è tfk kojft pcttkras os dg`skst t` rkcgoty. Cdd`rhoaj t` J`poactf cah \oj`là (<996)

cah J`poactf, Otsmf`mo, cah \oj`là (<939), cbàj `tfkrs, l`tf kxp`rts cah obp`rts oav`gvoaj tfk [Tcrk b`stgy hka`boactkh oa [T h`ggcrs. Oa chhotoà, kvka e`r Ncpca‟s trchk wotf `tfkr Csoca dùatroks,clùt ;9% è kxp`rts cah 69% è obp`rts crk hka`boactkh oa [T h`ggcrs. Y\D eorbs tkah t` skt kxp`rtprodks oa [T h`ggcrs a` bcttkr wfkrk tfky kxp`rt tfkor pr`hudts. Cs tfk \BL os pkjjkh t` tfk [T h`ggcr,h`ggcr-hka`boactkh kxp`rt prodoaj os hk ecdt` tfk scbk cs \BL-hka`boactkh prodk skttoaj, wfodf os

YDY. Er`b tfksk pkrspkdtovks, wotf Ncpcaksk eorbs ch`ptoaj GDY cah [T cah Y\D eorbs ch`ptoajYDY, tfk d`bloactoà è GYY cppkcrs t` lk dg`sk t` tfk cdtucg prcdtodk. F`wkvkr, wfka tfk \BLlkjoas t` eg`ct cjcoast tfk [T h`ggcr oa c b`rk sojaoeodcat wcy, Y\D eorbs dca lk kxpkdtkh t` sfoet er`bYDY t` GDY.

<9 Oa tfk sobugctoà b`hkg, l`tf Ncpca cah tfk [T kxpkrokadk trchk hkeodots (tfùjf Ncpca‟s hkeodot os

sbcggkr tfca tfct è tfk [T). Xfos ùtd`bk `ddurs lkdcusk oa c hyacbod b`hkg, c p`sotovk suppgy sf`dmstobugctks pr`hudtoà oa tfk dùatry oa wfodf ot `ddurs, wfogk rkhudoaj pr`hudtoà oa `tfkr dùatroks. Cgs`, tfk sf`dm drkctks ca oaegctoàcry obpcdt oa tfk sf`dm-`rojoactoaj dùatry wfogk kxkrtoaj hkegctoàcryprkssurks à `tfkr dùatroks.




48

tfk [T h`ggcr cah c jrkctkr h`wawcrh prkssurk à tfk oaegctoà rctk oa Ncpca tfca oatfk [T. Xfos h`wawcrh oaegctoàcry prkssurk os cjjrcvctkh cs tfk \BL os pkjjkh t`tfk [T h`ggcr cah tfk yka os e`rdkh t` cpprkdoctk b`rk tfca wùgh `tfkrwosk lk tfkdcsk. Xfus, tfk vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà trchk strudturk lktwkka Ncpca cah tfk Y\D cahtfk Y\D‟s [T-h`ggcr-pkjjkh kxdfcajk rctk rkjobk crk obp`rtcat ecdt`rs kxpgcoaoajhkegctoàcry obpcdts è tfk Y\D‟s suppgy sf`dms à Ncpca.

Xfos bkdfcaosb bcy fcvk lkka oa pgcdk huroaj tfk pkro`h è Ncpca‟s g`w oaegctoà (`rhkegctoà) oa tfk 3??9s cah tfk <999s. Toadk tfk 3??9s, tfkrk fcvk uahùltkhgy lkkasojaoeodcat oadrkcsks oa pr`hudtovoty‘oadguhoaj suppgy dcpcdoty‘oa tfk trchclgk j``hsskdt`r oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks sudf cs tfk Y\D. Huroaj tfos pkro`h, Ncpcakskbugtoactoàcg eorbs trcasekrrkh tfkor pr`hudt csskblgy lcsks t` kbkrjoaj Csocakdà`boks, oadguhoaj tfk Y\D. Xfksk eorbs fcvk hkvkg`pkh suppgy dfcoas cdr`sskbkrjoaj Csoc cah e`rjkh oatkractoàcg vkrtodcg spkdocgozctoà wfkrk Ncpcaksk eorbssuppgy pcrts cah d`bpàkats e`r pr`hudt csskblgy oa tfksk kbkrjoaj kdà`boks.Xfus, suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks‘huk t` trcasekrs è pr`hudtoà lcsks,tkdfa`g`jy, cah bcacjkbkat kxpkrtosk ly e`rkoja, pcrtodugcrgy, Ncpcaksk eorbs‘fcvkgomkgy kxpcahkh l`tf tfkor pr`hudt kxp`rts t` Ncpca cah obp`rts è pcrts cahd`bpàkats er`b Ncpca, wotfùt sojaoeodcatgy w`rskaoaj Ncpca‟s `vkrcgg trchk lcgcadk.

Oa dàtrcst, tfk [T scw ca kxpcasoà è pr`hudt obp`rts er`b tfk Y\D, wotfùtdàd`botcat oadrkcsks oa kxp`rts è pcrts cah d`bpàkats, cah, cs c rksugt, c gcrjktrchk hkeodot wotf kbkrjoaj kdà`boks, kspkdocggy tfk Y\D. Xfk rksugts è ùrsobugctoà b`hkg crk gcrjkgy dàsostkat wotf tfk trchk strudturks cah trchk lcgcadkpcttkras `lskrvkh oa rkcgoty. Xfky crk cgs` dàsostkat wotf tfk `lskrvkh trkah è gàj-tkrb yka cpprkdoctoà. Xfk a`boacg keekdtovk kxdfcajk rctk è tfk yka hkpodtkh oaEojurk 6 hkbàstrctks tfct, hkspotk dydgodcg egudtuctoàs wotf tkbp`rcry hkprkdoctoàkpos`hks e`r tfk yka (cs oa 3??5—3??6 cah <99;—<99:), tfk bkhoub- cah gàj-tkrbtrkahs wkrk è ca `vkrcgg cpprkdoctoà ct gkcst uatog <93<.

Eojurk 6> Ncpcaksk _ka Kxdfcajk \ctk, 3??9—<933

Tùrdk> Lcam è Ncpca.

Oa subbcry, tfkrk wkrk pkrsostkat p`sotovk suppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks,pcrtodugcrgy oa tfk Y\D, tfrùjfùt tfk 3??9s cah <999s, cs wkgg cs pkrsostkat a`boacg

;9

59

:9

69

?9

399

339

3<9

349

389:9

69

?9

399

339

3<9

349

389

3;9

359

┘ ? 9┘ ? 3┘ ? <┘ ? 4┘ ? 8┘ ? ;┘ ? 5┘ ? :┘ ? 6┘ ? ?┘ 9 9┘ 9 3┘ 9 <┘ 9 4┘ 9 8┘ 9 ;┘ 9 5┘ 9 :┘ 9 6┘ 9 ?┘ 3 9┘ 3 3

_ka-[T h`ggcr a`boacg kxdfcajk rctk (gket sdcgk)

A`boacg keekdtovk kxdfcajk rctk (rojft sdcgk)

A`boacg keekdtovk kxdfcajk rctk(<99; 2 399)

_ka-[T H`ggcr

hkprkdoctoàè tfk yka

cpprkdoctoàè tfk yka




4;

yka cpprkdoctoà. Oe ùr b`hkg rksugts crk oatkrprktkh ecotfeuggy, dàtoauùs p`sotovksuppgy sf`dms oa kbkrjoaj kdà`boks dcuskh sustcoakh cpprkdoctoàs è tfk yka cahhkegctoàcry prkssurks oa Ncpca, gcrjkgy huk t` tfk trchk strudturk è vkrtodcgspkdocgozctoà lktwkka Ncpca cah kbkrjoaj Csoca kdà`boks‘rkprkskatkh ly tfkY\D‘cah tfk gcttkr‟s [T-h`ggcr-stclogozctoà p`godoks. F`wkvkr, `tfkr ecdt`rs botojctkhyka cpprkdoctoà prkssurk er`b tobk t` tobk. E`r kxcbpgk, tfk cdd`bb`hctoajbàktcry p`godoks pursukh ly tfk Lcam è Ncpca er`b tfk gctk 3??9s t` tfk <999s bcyfcvk b`hkrctkh tfksk yka cpprkdoctoà cah hkegctoàcry prkssurks.<3 @a tfk `tfkrfcah, tfk yka dàtoaukh t` cpprkdoctk cah prodk hkegctoà wcs a`t kgoboactkh hkspotktfksk bàktcry p`godoks. Xfos sujjksts tfct, t` kah ots prodk hkegctoà, Ncpca dùghfcvk tcmka tw` `ptoàs> (o) ch`pt budf b`rk cjjrkssovk bàktcry kcsoaj p`gody t`èeskt tfk hkegctoàcry prkssurk d`boaj er`b pkrsostkat pr`hudtovoty sf`dms oa kbkrjoajkdà`boks sudf cs tfk Y\D= cah (oo) dàvoadk kbkrjoaj Csoc, pcrtodugcrgy tfk Y\D, t`b`vk t` b`rk egkxolgk kxdfcajk rctk rkjobks s` cs t` botojctk yka cpprkdoctoàprkssurk.

<3 Xfk cpprkdoctoà è tfk yka dàtoaukh uatog tfk boh-3??9s wfka zkr` oatkrkst rctk cah qucatotctovk

kcsoaj p`godoks wkrk ch`ptkh.




45

\KEK\KADKT

Cblgkr, T., K. Dcrhoc, cah D. ôbbkrbcaa. <99<. Oatkractoàcg Xrcasbossoà è tfkLusoakss Dydgk oa c Bugto-Tkdt`r B`hkg. Kur`pkca Kdà`bod \kvokw 85(<)>

<:4—499.

Cukr, \., M. Hkjka, cah C. B. Eosdfkr. <933. G`w-Zcjk Obp`rt D`bpktotoà,Oaegctoàcry Yrkssurk, cah Oahustry Hyacbods oa Kur`pk. Z`rmoaj Ycpkrs 33.9<.Lcskg> Twoss Actoàcg Lcam.

Cukr, \., cah C. B. Eosdfkr. <939. Xfk Keekdt è G`w-Zcjk Obp`rt D`bpktotoà à [TOactoàcry Yrkssurk. Nùracg ̀ e Bàktcry Kdà`bods ;:(8)> 8?3—;94.

Lcxtkr, B., cah B. C. Mùpcrotscs. <994. Xrchk Ttrudturk, Oahustrocg Ttrudturk, cahOatkractoàcg Lusoakss Dydgks. Cbkrodca Kdà`bod \kvokw ?4(<)> ;3—;5.

‘‘‘. <99;. Hktkrboacats è Lusoakss Dydgk D`b`vkbkat> C \`lust Cacgysos.Nùracg ̀ e Bàktcry Kdà`bods ;<(3)> 334—3;:.

Lkaoja`, J., Y. Lkaoja`, cah E. Jforào. <99:. Oatkrkst \ctk \ugks e`r Eoxkh Kxdfcajk\ctk \kjobks. Nùracg è Kdà`bod Hyacbods cah Dàtr`g 43(:)> <3?5—<<33.

Lkrmc, B., cah B. L. Hkvkrkux. <939. Zfct Hktkrboaks Kur`pkca \kcg Kxdfcajk\ctks0 ALK\ Z`rmoaj Ycpkrs 3;:;4. Dcblrohjk, BC> Actoàcg Lurkcu èKdà`bod \kskcrdf.

Lktts, D., cah B. L. Hkvkrkux. <999. Kxdfcajk \ctk Hyacbods oa c B`hkg è Yrodoaj-t`-Bcrmkt. Nùracg ̀ e Oatkractoàcg Kdà`bods ;9(3)> <3;—<88.

Lurstkoa, C., D. Murz, cah G. Xkscr. <996. Xrchk, Yr`hudtoà Tfcroaj, cah tfkOatkractoàcg Xrcasbossoà è Lusoakss Dydgks. Nùracg ̀ e Bàktcry Kdà`bods ;;(8)> ::;—:?;.

Dgcrm, X. K., cah K. vca Zoad``p. <993. L`rhkrs cah Lusoakss Dydgks. Nùracg ̀ e

Oatkractoàcg Kdà`bods ;;(3)> ;?—6;.D`rsktto, J., Y. Ykskato, A. \ùloao, cah D. Xoggk. <999. D`bpktotovk Hkvcguctoàs>

t`wcrh c Zkgecrk-Lcskh Cppr`cdf. Nùracg ̀ e Oatkractoàcg Kdà`bods ;3(3)><3:—<83.

J`poactf, J., @. Otsmf`mo, cah \. \oj`là. <939. Durrkady Dfòdk cah Kxdfcajk \ctkYcss-Xfrùjf. Cbkrodca Kdà`bod \kvokw 399(3)> 498—45.

J`poactf, J., cah \. \oj`là. <996. Ttodmy L`rhkrs. Sucrtkrgy Nùracg ̀ e Kdà`bods 3<4(<)> ;43—;:;.

Fucaj, M. V. cah ^. Gou. <995. Tkggkrs‟ G`dcg Durrkady Yrodoaj `r Luykrs‟ G`dcgDurrkady Yrodoaj> H`ks Ot Bcttkr e`r Oatkractoàcg Zkgecrk Cacgysos0 Nùracg ̀ eKdà`bod Hyacbods cah Dàtr`g 49(:)> 3364—3<34.

Fubbkgs, H., N. Osfoo, cah M.-B. _o. <993. Xfk Acturk cah Jr`wtf è UkrtodcgTpkdocgozctoà oa Z`rgh Xrchk. Nùracg ̀ e Oatkractoàcg Kdà`bods ;8(3)> :;—?5.

Mcboa, T. L., B. Bcrczzo, cah N. Z. Tdfoahgkr. <995. Xfk Obpcdt è Dfoaksk Kxp`rtsà Jg`lcg Obp`rt Yrodks. \kvokw ̀ e Oatkractoàcg Kdà`bods 38(<)> 3:?—<93.

M``pbca, \., ^. Zcaj, cah T.-N. Zko. <996. F`w Budf è Dfoaksk Kxp`rts os \kcggyBchk oa Dfoac0 Csskssoaj H`bkstod Ucguk-Chhkh Zfka Yr`dkssoaj Xrchk Os



Documents

Emerging Economies' Supply Shocks and Japan's Price Deflation: International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model