Upload
duongngoc
View
219
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Representing Wellington Management
Emerging Markets Equity
Wellington Management Company, llp
City of Fresno Retirement System
24 January 2012
Vera M. Trojan, CFASenior Vice President, PartnerEquity Portfolio Manager
Charles C. Ruch, CFAVice PresidentRelationship Manager
22000354159/305205_0/305205/G2026
Appendix
Agenda
Section One
2000354167/305205_0/305205/305205
Wellington Management Firm Update and Relationship Review
Section Two Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio Review
Section Three Appendix and Disclosures
W E L L I N G T O N M A N A G E M E N T
1
Wellington ManagementUnique Organization
Appendix
2000003949/305205_0/G1039/G1039
Multiple investment approaches and research disciplines
Empowered portfolio teams
Independent, proprietary research
Career analysts
Freedom to disagree
Global
Investment Platform
Private partnership since 1979
Stable
Long-term orientation
Attract, retain, and motivate talent
Align interests with clients
Ownership Structure
Client-oriented
Performance-driven
Professional and collegial
Humanistic
A true “partnership”
Highest standards – ethics and integrity
Sustainable competitive advantage
Investment management only
Research for client portfolios only
People-intensive, not capital-intensive
Diversified
Global
Business ModelCulture
1
Appendix
Wellington Management Today
Preliminary as of 31 December 2011
Assets•US$651
2000003956/305205_0/G1039/G1039
billionofclientassetsundermanagement•40%equity,46%fixedincome,14%multi-strategy
Resources•Over1,900employees•11offices
Clients•Over2,000institutionalclientsbasedinmorethan50countries
2
Appendix
Investment ProfessionalsDepth, Experience, and Continuity
31 December 2011
2000003966/305205_0/G1039/G1039
Central ResearchGlobal Industry Analysis 51 19 10
Average Years of ExperienceAverage Years with Wellington Management
1810
Quantitative Analysis 11 17 8Global Macroanalysis 7 19 15
Technical Analysis 3 24 8Portfolio Coordinators 17 15 8
Management 10 19 12
EquitiesPortfolio Management 53 23 15
Average Years of ExperienceAverage Years with Wellington Management
1810
Research Analysis 62 13 6Product Management 23 19 8
Management 6 21 14
Fixed IncomePortfolio Management 51 18 10
Average Years of ExperienceAverage Years with Wellington Management
178
Credit Analysis 32 17 6Quantitative Analysis 13 17 7Product Management 26 16 6
Portfolio Analysis 24 12 6Management 5 23 9
Multi-StrategyAsset Allocation Portfolio Management 9 19 9
Average Years of ExperienceAverage Years with Wellington Management
188
Asset Allocation Analysis 12 15 7Product Management 7 20 9
TradingEquity and Fixed Income Traders 51 20 11 Average Years of Experience
Average Years with Wellington Management2011Management 7 24 12
Research Associates 47 7 5
Total Number of Investment Professionals 527
Number of Professionals
Average Years with Wellington Management
Average Years of Experience
3
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement SystemRelationship Review
18 September 2008 The City of Fresno Retirement System retained Wellington Management Company,
2000354185/305205_0/305205/283522
llp to manage approximately $34.7 million in a separately managed Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio for the City Employees and Fire and Police Employees Pension Plan
27 April 2009 Contribution: $5.0 million
27 November 2009 Withdrawal: $10.0 million
14 March 2011 Withdrawal: $5.0 million
31 December 2011 Market Value: $36.9 million
4
W E L L I N G T O N M A N A G E M E N T
2
Appendix
Emerging Markets EquityDistinguishing Characteristics
Rolling gross monthly returns for the Emerging Markets Composite versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
2000211112/305205_0/G1123/G1123
| Gross performance results are net of commissions and other direct expenses, but before (gross of) advisory fees, custody charges, withholding taxes, and other indirect expenses, and include reinvestment of dividends. If all expenses were reflected, the performance shown would be lower. Actual fees will vary depending on, among other things, the applicable fee schedule and account size. For example, if US$100,000 was invested and experienced a 10% annual return compounded monthly for ten years, its ending value, without giving effect to the deduction of advisory fees, would be US$270,704 with an annualized compounded return of 10.47%. If an advisory fee of 0.95% of average net assets per year were deducted monthly for the ten-year period, the annualized compounded return would be 9.43% and the ending dollar value would be US$246,355. Information regarding the firm’s advisory fees is available upon request. Composite returns have the potential to be adjusted until reviewed and finalized 30 days following each calendar quarter end period. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For use in one-on-one presentations only. This supplemental information complements the GIPS® compliant presentation provided in the attachment.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Emer
ging
Mar
kets
Equ
ity (%
)
MSCI Emerging Markets (%)
Consistent
Integrated Approach
“Boutique” with Deep Resources
Experienced
Above MSCI Emerging Markets
Below MSCI Emerging Markets
Rolling Gross Monthly 3-Year Trailing Returns30 September 2004 to 30 September 2011
5
Emerging Markets EquityInvestment Objective and Approach
Appendix
Investment objectiveConsistently outperform the MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index
Investment approachFundamental, proprietary research
Integrated Analytical Approach – country, sector, and stock
Focus on companies with compelling growth opportunities, attractive returns on capital
Opportunistic by style and market cap
2000312430/305205_0/G2026/G2026
6
Appendix
Emerging Markets EquityPortfolio Management Team
2000239240/305205_0/G1123/G1123
Vera M. Trojan, CFA Equity Portfolio ManagerSenior Vice President MBA, Harvard Business School, 1987 28 years of professional experience
Bo Z. Meunier, CFA Equity Research AnalystDirector MBA, Babson College (Olin), 1998 16 years of professional experience
Jamie F. Rice, CFA Equity Research AnalystVice President AB, Harvard College, 1992 20 years of professional experience
Murali Srikantaiah Equity Research AnalystVice President MBA, Dartmouth College (Tuck), 2000 16 years of professional experience
7
Appendix
Emerging Markets EquityPortfolio Management Team (continued)
2000282576/305205_0/G1123/G1123
David J. Palmisano, CFA Equity Research AnalystVice President MBA, Boston College, 2000 17 years of professional experience
Carolina S. Pierry Equity Research AnalystVice President MBA, Columbia University, 2007 14 years of professional experience
Muchemi J. Wandimi Research Associate
BS, University of Pennsylvania (Wharton), 2007 5 years of professional experience
Ted A. Gilchrist Investment DirectorDirector BA, University of Notre Dame, 1996 15 years of professional experience
8
Appendix
Emerging Markets Equity“Boutique” with Deep Resources
*Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar)
2000266697/305205_0/G1123/G1123
| 31 December 2011
Vera Trojan Portfolio Manager
Emerging Markets Debt Team
(15 members)
Currency Specialists
(2 members)
Diversified Portfolio Managers
(53 members)
Global Industry Analysts
(51 members)
Macroanalysts(7 members)
Bo MeunierChina, Real Estate
Carolina PierryEMEA
Muchemi WandimiSpecial Projects
Jamie RiceLatin America
Murali Srikantaiah
India, ASEAN*, Telecom
David PalmisanoSouth Korea,
Taiwan, Asian Technology
9
Appendix
Emerging Markets EquityInvestment Process
The above characteristics are sought during the portfolio management process. Actual experience may not reflect all of these characteristics, or may be outside of stated ranges.
2000002012/305205_0/G1123/G1123
Emerging Markets Portfolio
Research Universe
Stocks•Most>US$4bil•Selected<US$4bil
Countries (30)
Sectors (10)
Company Analysis
Country/ Sector Analysis
•Systematicreview•Positivestructuraltrends
•Cyclicalinflectionpoints
•Growthdrivers•Winningstrategy•Strongfinancialposition
•Attractivevaluations
Portfolio Construction
•Upside,risk,andliquidity
•Buy/Selldiscipline
70 – 120Stocks
400 Stocks
15,000 Stocks
10
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEInvestment Returns (US$) Through 31 December 2011
*Performance inception date of the City of Fresno Retirement System portfolio is 30 September 2008.
2000354192/305205_0/305205/G2026
| The portfolio returns are reported gross of investment management fees and net of operating expenses since inception. | Returns for periods less than one year are not annualized.
Annualized Returns Since 4Q11 1 Yr 3 Yrs Inception* City of Fresno EME 4.1% -21.4% 18.0% 6.5%MSCI Emerging Markets 4.4 -18.2 20.4 7.5
2011 2010 2009 City of Fresno EME -21.4% 17.2% 78.2%MSCI Emerging Markets -18.2 19.2 79.0
11
Appendix
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Returns – CountryFourth Quarter 2011
MSCI Index Performance (in USD)
Sources: FactSet, MSCI
2000349080/305205_0/303905/G2026
| As of 31 December 2011
Peru MalaysiaThailand
MexicoBrazil
ChileChina
Philippines
South Africa
RussiaSouth Korea
Indonesia
MSCI EM Index
ColombiaTaiwan
Czech Republic
HungaryPoland
MoroccoEgypt
IndiaTurkey
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Retu
rn (%
)
12
Appendix
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Returns – SectorFourth Quarter 2011
Sources: FactSet, MSCI
2000349081/305205_0/303905/G2026
| As of 31 December 2011
MSCI Index Performance (in USD)
Cons Staples
UtilitiesInfo Technology
EnergyMSCI EM Index
FinancialsCons Discretionary
Telecom Svcs
IndustrialsMaterials
Health Care
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Retu
rn (%
)
13
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEPerformance by Country: Fourth Quarter 2011Portfolio: 4.1%; Benchmark: 4.4%
*Represents top and bottom five relative contributing countries
2000352168/305205_0/303797/G2026
| **Represents underweight position relative to the benchmark | As of 31 December 2011
200
100
0
-100
-200
Country Attribution – Value Added*
Basi
s po
ints
Country Allocation Security Selection
30
Taiwan
31
Turkey
4
SouthKorea
11
HongKong
24
Thailand
-11
Mexico
-1
Colombia
-14
SouthAfrica
-5
Brazil
-3
China
570 24 0
-143
-102
-12
-111
Selected Outperforming Countries Stocks Contributing to Performance Taiwan Hon Hai Precision, HTC**Turkey Turkiye Garanti Bank**, Turkiye Is Bankasi**
Selected Underperforming Countries Stocks Detracting from Performance China China Mobile, Shangri-La AsiaBrazil Companhia De Bebidas**, Braskem
14
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEPerformance by Sector: Fourth Quarter 2011Portfolio: 4.1%; Benchmark: 4.4%
*Represents underweight position relative to the benchmark
2000352169/305205_0/303797/G2026
| As of 31 December 2011
200
100
0
-100
-200
Sector Attribution – Value Added
Basi
s po
ints
Sector Allocation Security Selection
23
InfoTechnology
26
Materials
4
Industrials
-1
ConsDiscretionary
0
Utilities
0
Financials
-8
TelecomSvcs
-7
ConsStaples
-9
HealthCare
5
Energy
102
28
-31
-3 -26 -19 -25 -24 -51
Selected Outperforming Sectors Stocks Contributing to Performance Info Technology Samsung Electronics, Hon Hai PrecisionMaterials Vale*, MMC Norilsk Nickel*
Selected Underperforming Sectors Stocks Detracting from Performance Energy PacificRubialesEnergy,GSHoldingsHealthCare RanbaxyLaboratories,SinopharmGroup
15
Appendix
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Returns – CountryTrailing Twelve Months
Sources: FactSet, MSCI
2000352179/305205_0/303797/G1871
| As of 31 December 2011
IndonesiaMalaysia
Philippines
ThailandCzech Republic
ColombiaSouth Korea
MexicoSouth Africa
MoroccoMSCI EM Index
ChinaRussia
ChileTaiwan
Peru BrazilPoland
HungaryTurkey
IndiaEgypt
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Retu
rn (%
)
MSCI Index Performance (in USD)
16
Appendix
MSCI Emerging Markets Index Returns – SectorTrailing Twelve Months
Sources: FactSet, MSCI
2000352180/305205_0/303797/G1871
| As of 31 December 2011
Cons Staples
Telecom Svcs
Cons Discretionary
UtilitiesInfo Technology
EnergyMSCI EM Index
Health CareFinancials
MaterialsIndustrials
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Retu
rn (%
)
MSCI Index Performance (in USD)
17
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEPerformance by Country: Trailing Twelve MonthsPortfolio: -21.4%; Benchmark: -18.2%
*Represents top and bottom five relative contributing countries
2000352177/305205_0/303797/G2026
| **Represents underweight position relative to the benchmark | As of 31 December 2011
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
Country Attribution – Value Added*
Basi
s po
ints
Country Allocation Security Selection
23
Turkey
7
SouthKorea
-5
China
27
Thailand
2
Peru
-8
Russia
-25
SouthAfrica
-36
Indonesia
-48
Egypt
-13
Brazil
0 14 17
-20
3
-37 -23 -28 -27-69
Selected Outperforming Countries Stocks Contributing to Performance Turkey Turkiye Is Bankasi**, Akbank**South Korea Samsung Electronics, NCsoft
Selected Underperforming Countries Stocks Detracting from Performance Brazil Petrobras, OGX Petroleo e GasEgypt EFG-Hermes, Commercial International Bank
18
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEPerformance by Sector: Trailing Twelve MonthsPortfolio: -21.4%; Benchmark: -18.2%
*Represents underweight position relative to the benchmark.
2000352178/305205_0/303797/G2026
| As of 31 December 2011
400
200
0
-200
-400
Sector Attribution – Value Added
Basi
s po
ints
Sector Allocation Security Selection
24
InfoTechnology
-6
TelecomSvcs
-2
Utilities
12
Industrials
-20
HealthCare
35
Materials
4
Energy
12
ConsDiscretionary
-24
ConsStaples
21
Financials
1222
-20 -38 -14-78 -79 -95 -64
-173
Selected Outperforming Sectors Stocks Contributing to Performance Info Technology Samsung Electronics, NCsoftTelecom Svcs Philippine Long Distance, Axiata Group
Selected Underperforming Sectors Stocks Detracting from Performance Financials EFG-Hermes, Canara BankCons Staples X5 Retail Group, Companhia De Bebidas*
19
Appendix
Emerging Markets Equity2012 Outlook
Challenging global cyclical outlook•Europe
2000347397/305205_0/303391/289817
inrecession•Chinarecoversinsecondhalfof2012•USdelaysfiscalconsolidation;continuestogrow
Globalmonetaryeasing•EuropeanCentralBanksupportingEuroareabanks•Inflationrecedinginemergingmarkets
Highmacroandfinancialvolatilitywillprevail•Politicsfocusinward,oneconomicchallenges
20
Appendix
Emerging Markets EquityOpportunities
Valuations very compelling
Monetary policies ease as inflation abates
Global market share gains continue for leading companies
Weakness in home countries keeps foreigners away
Capital market reform: broader markets, and better capital allocators
Productivity gains continue with investment, education, and resource development
2000347396/305205_0/303391/289817
21
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMELargest Active Positions – Stocks
As of 31 December 2011
2000352187/305205_0/303797/G2026
Portfolio MSCI Emerging Company Country Sector Weight MarketsIndex Difference Samsung Electronics South Korea Information Technology 6.7% 3.5% 3.2%Hon Hai Precision Taiwan Information Technology 3.8 0.8 3.0Vale Brazil Materials 0.0 2.1 -2.1China Mobile China Telecommunication Services 0.0 1.8 -1.8Gazprom Russia Energy 0.0 1.8 -1.8Sberbank Russia Financials 2.4 0.7 1.7Dongfeng Motor China Consumer Discretionary 1.6 0.1 1.5America Movil Mexico Telecommunication Services 0.0 1.4 -1.4Taiwan Semiconductor Taiwan Information Technology 3.1 1.9 1.2Hyundai Motor South Korea Consumer Discretionary 2.2 1.0 1.2
Number of Equity Names 99
22
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMECountry Weights as of 31 December 2011
2000352190/305205_0/303797/296671
Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio MSCI EM Index20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
% o
f Equ
ity
ThailandSouth Korea
RussiaBrazil
Other AsiaTaiwan
China MalaysiaOther EMEA
Other Latin America
MexicoIndia South Africa
23
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMESector Weights as of 31 December 2011
2000352191/305205_0/303797/G1123
Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio MSCI EM Index30
25
20
15
10
5
0
% o
f Equ
ity
Info Technology
EnergyCons Discretionary
Health CareFinancials
UtilitiesIndustrials
Cons Staples
Telecom Svcs
Materials
24
Appendix
City of Fresno Retirement System EMEPortfolio Characteristics as of 31 December 2011
*Weighted average P/E, P/B, and EPS growth based on 2011 estimates. For P/E and EPS, stocks without earnings are omitted from the calculations.
2000354207/305205_0/305205/G2026
| Sources: Datastream, Wellington Management. | **Tracking risk evaluated based on monthly returns. Tracking risk as of 31 December 2011.
Emerging MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Markets Index Size Asset-weighted Market Cap $43.2 bil $43.6 bilMedian Market Cap 12.1 4.6Over $10 billion 70% 65%$2 – 10 billion 27 31Under $2 billion 3 4
Valuation EPS Growth (Next Year)* 27.6% 23.0%P/E (Current)* 10.0x 10.4xP/B* 2.2x 1.9x
Risk Historical Tracking Risk (3-Year)** 3.6% Number of Countries 18 21Number of Companies 99 806
25
W E L L I N G T O N M A N A G E M E N T
3
Appendix
Emerging vs Developed MarketsRelative Performance
2000273175/305205_0/G1871/G1871
12/89 12/91 12/93 12/95 12/97 12/99 12/01 12/03 12/05 12/07 12/09 12/110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Inde
xed
Source: MSCI
296
MSCI Emerging Markets/MSCI World Index
A1
Appendix
Appendix
Corrections in MSCI Emerging Markets Index in US$
2000273176/305205_0/G1871/G1871
500
12/89 12/91 12/93 12/95 12/97 12/99 12/01 12/03 12/05 12/07 12/09 12/11100
1,000
1,500
Source: MSCI | Y axis shown with logarithmic scale.
MSCI EM Index (US$)
1 Aug 90 to 16 Jan 91(121 days)32% Decline
22 Apr 92 to 24 Aug 92(89 days)19% Decline
16 Feb 94 to 9 May 94(55 days)19% Decline
22 Sep 94 to 9 Mar 95(121 days)33% Decline
10 Jul 97 to 5 Oct 98(323 days)58% DeclineAsian Financial Crisis
18 Apr 02 to 10 Oct 02(168 days)30% Decline
23 Jul 07 to 16 Aug 07(24 days)18% DeclineInitial US Sub-Prime Mtg Fears
10 May 06 to 13 Jun 06(25 days)24% Decline
3 Oct 05 to 19 Oct 05(16 days)9% Decline
12 Apr 04 to 17 May 04(26 days)20% DeclineStart of Fed Tightening
10 Feb 00 to 3 Oct 01(430 days)54% DeclineGlobal Correction
29 Oct 07 to 2 Mar 0960% DeclineGlobal Credit Crisis
A2
Appendix
Appendix
World Growth to Weaken Further in 2012
Source: WMC Macro Team Global Economic Forecast Summary (December 2011)
2000250443/305205_0/G1871/G1871
Japan
United States
United Kingdom
Euro Area
Thailand
Brazil
South Korea
South Africa
Mexico
Indonesia
Russia
India
Poland
Taiwan
China
Chile
Turkey
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Percent
2011 2012 Forecast
GDP Growth Rate (%)
A3
Appendix
Appendix
2012 Will Be a Year of Modest DecelerationIn Most Emerging Markets
2000250314/305205_0/G1871/G1871
Japan
Thailand
Brazil
United States
South Korea
South Africa
Mexico
Indonesia
Russia
India
United Kingdom
Poland
Taiwan
China
Euro Area
Chile
Turkey
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Percent
Source: WMC Macro Team Global Economic Forecast Summary (December 2012)
2012 Expected GDP Growth vs 2011
A4
Appendix
Appendix
Inflationary Pressures Easing in Large Emerging Markets
2000250473/305205_0/G1871/G1871
11/09 1/10 3/10 5/10 7/10 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/110
2
4
6
8
10
12
Percen
t
Brazil Russia India* China
*All inflation rate numbers based on CPI, except for India which is based on PPI | Sources: Bloomberg, CEIN (China), PIB (India), FISS (Russia), IBGE (Brazil)
Y/Y Inflation Rate (%)
A5
Appendix
Appendix
Monetary Easing in Emerging Markets
2000250477/305205_0/G1871/G1871
Hungary
Colombia
Mexico
Venezuela
Thailand
Czech Republic
India
Indonesia
Korea
Philippines
Poland
Russia
South Africa
Turkey
Taiwan
China
Chile
Malaysia
Argentina
Brazil
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Percent
Source: Haver, Wellington Management (as of December 2011)
Overnight / Policy Interest Rates, Percentage Point Change, Last Three Months, Latest Data Available
A6
Appendix
Appendix
Emerging Markets Dependent on Exports
2000220133/305205_0/G1871/G1871
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 1010
15
20
25
30
35
Percen
t
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1020
24
28
32
36
40
Percen
t
Sources: IMF, Haver
Emerging Markets, Exports as % of GDP
Share of Emerging Market Exports Going to Emerging Markets
Emerging Market exports have roughly doubled as a proportion of GDP over the past two decades
In the last decade, exports between emerging economies have increased 50% as a proportion if emerging market exports
A7
Appendix
Appendix
Emerging Markets Are Becoming Increasingly Important
2000220150/305205_0/G1871/G1871
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201015
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
Percent
Source: IMF
Emerging & Developing Economies GDP (in Current USD) Share of World Total (%)
A8
Appendix
Appendix
The Structural CaseEmerging Markets: Favorable Demographics
2000018432/305205_0/G1871/G1871
Japan
Russia
Germany
Italy
France
UK
Korea
China
US
Canada
Australia
Brazil
Mexico
India
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Sources: UN Forecasts generated in 2008
5-Year % Ch in Working Age Population, Ages 15 – 64, 2008 – 2012
A9
Appendix
Appendix
International Liquidity Declining
2000063757/305205_0/G1871/G1871
Argentina
Turkey
Poland
Venezuela
Indonesia
Thailand
Czech Republic
Russia
South Africa
India
Malaysia
China
Korea
Hungary
Colombia
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Philippines
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Latest 3-Month Annualized
Sources: Haver and CEIC
International Reserves: 3-Month Annualized Growth Rate, Latest Available
A10
Appendix
Appendix
External Vulnerability: Uses vs Sources of Foreign Exchange
2000220157/305205_0/G1871/G1871
AlgeriaChina
Iran Peru RussiaBrazil
ThailandIndonesia
Venezuela
Philippines
Malaysia
Colombia
LebanonKorea
IndiaChile
Argentina
South Africa
MexicoPoland
EcuadorHungary
Czech Republic
EgyptTunisia
RomaniaMorocco
Turkey
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Perc
ent
Financial Vulnerability is defined as Debt Service + Imports/(Gross International Reserves – IMF Credit) + Exports + Net Transfers | Source: Institute of International Finance
2012 Forecast of Use vs Sources of Foreign Exchange
A11
Appendix
Appendix
Where Are the World’s Fiscal Basket Cases?
2000018444/305205_0/G1871/G1871
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 201530
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Perc
ent o
f GDP
Advanced Economies
Emerging and Developing Economies
Source: IMF
Government Debt to GDP, 2000 – 2015
A12
Appendix
Appendix
Emerging vs Developed MarketsCompany Valuations: Relative Price-to-Earnings
2000273177/305205_0/G1871/G1871
12/96 12/97 12/98 12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/110
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
P/E
(Tra
iling
12
Mon
ths)
MSCI Emerging Markets P/E MSCI World ex Japan P/E
Source: MSCI
10.7x
12.8x
A13
Appendix
Appendix
Emerging vs Developed MarketsCompany Valuations: Relative Price-to-Book
2000273179/305205_0/G1871/G1871
12/96 12/97 12/98 12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/110.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
P/B
MSCI Emerging Markets P/BV MSCI World ex Japan P/BV
Source: MSCI
1.6x 1.7x
A14
Appendix
Appendix
Emerging vs Developed MarketsCompany Valuations: Relative Return on Equity
2000273178/305205_0/G1871/G1871
12/95 12/96 12/97 12/98 12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/110
3
6
9
12
15
18
ROE
MSCI EM ROE MSCI World ROE
ROE is defined as Earnings per Share/Book Value per share expressed as a percentage. | Source: MSCI
14.7
12.3
A15
Appendix
Appendix
Important Notice
Wellington Management Company, llp is an independently owned, SEC-registered Investment Adviser that, along with its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment management and investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, Wellington Management also has offices in: Chicago, Illinois; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; Beijing; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Singapore; Sydney; and Tokyo. This material is prepared for, and authorized for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorized by Wellington Management Company, llp or its affiliates. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up
2000000298/305205_0/G1422/G1422
-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients.
In the UK, this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited, a firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the rules of the FSA. This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment service to which this material relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. Persons residing in Austria and France are directed to contact only the Managing Director at Wellington Management International Limited in the United Kingdom for further information. In Germany, this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited, Niederlassung Deutschland, the German branch of Wellington Management International Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the FSA and in respect of certain of its activities by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the German Securities Trading Act. This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment service to which this material relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. This material does not constitute financial analysis within the meaning of Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act, does not meet all legal requirements designed to guarantee the independence of financial analyses, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the publication of financial analyses. This material does not constitute a prospectus for the purposes of the German Investment Fund Act, the German Securities Sales Prospectus Act or the German Securities Prospectus Act. In Hong Kong, this material is provided by Wellington Global Investment Management Limited, a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities, on the basis that you are a Professional Investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance. By accepting this material you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to a person who is not a Professional Investor as defined in the Ordinance. In Singapore, Wellington Management conducts its financial services business through Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd (Registration Number 199504987R). In Australia, Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd (WIM) has authorized the issue of this material for use solely by wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001) of WIM or of any of its related bodies corporate, or by wholesale clients who are considering investing in funds of which WIM or any of its related bodies corporate is an investment manager. By accepting this material, a wholesale client agrees not to reproduce or distribute any part of the material, nor make it available to any retail client, without WIM’s prior written consent. Wellington Management Company, llp is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services, in reliance on class order 03/1100, a copy of which may be obtained at the web site of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, http://www.asic.gov.au. The class order exempts a registered investment adviser regulated by the SEC, among others, from the need to hold an AFSL for financial services provided to Australian wholesale clients on certain conditions. Financial services provided by Wellington Management Company, llp are regulated by the SEC under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United States, which are different from the laws applying in Australia. In Japan, Wellington International Management Company Pte Ltd has been registered as a Financial Instruments Firm with registered number: Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-Sho) Number 428. WIM is a member of the Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association (JSIAA) and the Investment Trusts Association, Japan (ITA).
©2012 Wellington Management. All rights reserved. | As of January 2012
2000000384/305205_0/G2332/G2308
Wellington Management Composite: Emerging Markets Equity Schedule of Performance Returns from 01 January 2001 to 31 December 2010
EMGMKTTOT Generated on: 10 October 2011
PeriodGross
Return (%) Net
Return (%) Benchmark Return (%)
Number of Accounts
Internal Dispersion (%)
Composite Mkt. Value (USD Mil)
Total Firm Assets (USD Mil)
2001 4.22 3.18 -2.37 N/M N/M 367 311,372 2002 -4.15 -5.11 -6.00 N/M N/M 5 302,863 2003 62.68 61.12 56.28 N/M N/M 78 393,992 2004 27.14 25.90 25.95 N/M N/M 246 469,884 2005 36.06 34.73 34.54 10 0.5 1,356 520,693 2006 35.13 33.81 32.59 11 1.0 2,522 575,492 2007 47.22 45.80 39.78 11 0.8 3,653 588,376 2008 -50.52 -51.04 -53.18 15 0.3 2,183 419,641 2009 76.16 74.48 79.02 19 1.2 6,085 537,384 2010 16.96 15.81 19.20 29 0.5 10,428 633,922
Benchmark: MSCI Emerging Markets
N/M: For years where there are five or fewer accounts throughout the performance period, Internal Dispersion and Number of Accounts are not meaningful. Composite Description: Accounts included in the Emerging Markets Equity Composite seek to achieve returns above the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by investing in non-US equity securities of emerging market countries, including countries outside the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Composite Creation Date: The composite creation date is February 2003.
Composite Membership: All fully discretionary, fee paying accounts are eligible for inclusion in the composite.
Fee Schedule: The US institutional separate account fee schedule for this product is:
Market Value Annual FeeOn the first US$25 million 1.00% On the next US$25 million 0.90 Over US$50 million 0.80 Composite Name Change: As of November 2010, the composite name changed from Emerging Markets to Emerging Markets Equity. The name change has not resulted in any material changes to the style or investment management of this composite or approach.
Firm: For purposes of GIPS® compliance, the Firm is defined as all accounts managed by Wellington Management Company, LLP, an independently owned, SEC-registered investment adviser which, along with its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, WellingtonManagement also has offices in Chicago, Illinois; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; Beijing; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Singapore; Sydney; and Tokyo.
GIPS®: Wellington Management claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS® standards. Wellington Management has been independently verified for the periods 1 January 1993 to 31 December 2010. The verification report is available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the
firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS® standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm's policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS® standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation.
Performance Calculation: Gross performance results are net of trading expenses. Net performance returns are net of a model investment management fee and are calculated by subtracting 1/12th of the highest applicable fee on a monthly basis from the composite gross returns. Returns, market values, and assets are reported in USD except when otherwise noted. Returns, market values and assets reported in currencies other than USD are calculated by converting the USD monthly return and assets using theappropriate exchange rate (official 4:00 p.m. London closing spot rates). Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request.
Internal Dispersion: The dispersion measure presented is the asset-weighted standard deviation. The asset-weighted standard deviation measures the dispersion of individual account returns relative to the asset-weighted composite return. Only accounts that have been included in the composite for the full period are included in the standard deviation calculation. Limitations imposed by client guidelines or by law on an account's ability to invest in certain securities or instruments, such as IPO securities, and/or implementation of the firm's Trade Allocation Policies and Procedures, may cause the account's performance to differ from that of the composite.
Composite Listing: Wellington Management's list of composite descriptions is available upon request.
Other Matters: This material contains summary information regarding the investment approach described herein and is not a complete description of the investment objectives, policies, guidelines, or portfolio management and research that supports thisinvestment approach. Any decision to engage Wellington Management should be based upon a review of the terms of the investment management agreement and the specific investment objectives, policies, and guidelines that apply under the terms of such agreement.
Past Performance: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.