Emissions Inventory in the Base and Future Milestone Years

South Coast Air Quality Management District

Criteria and Toxic Air Pollutants Emissions Inventory for Base and Future Milestone Years

Assembly Bill (AB) 617 Community Air Initiatives

Technical Advisory Group MeetingFriday, October 23, 2020


Source Attribution

What is source attribution?

Rigorous accounting of sources, their emissions and their contribution to cumulative exposure burden

Why are we doing this?

Meet AB617 statutory requirement: provide “[a] methodology for assessing and identifying the contributing sources or categories of sources, including, but not limited to, stationary and mobile sources, and an estimate of their relative contribution to elevated exposure to air pollution in impacted communities…”

2


Criteria Air Pollutants (CAP)

• VOC, NOx, SOx,NH3, PM2.5 and Pb

Toxic Air Contaminants (TAC)

•24 reported

Air Pollutants Included in the Source Attribution


Selected List of Air Toxic Contaminants and Their Associated Cancer Risk Factor

Cancer unit risk 1/(ug/m3)

Relative factor

To DPM

1 Benzene 6.77E-05 0.092 Ethylene oxide 8.80E-05 0.123 Formaldehyde 1.42E-05 0.024 Perchloroethylene 1.42E-05 0.025 1,3-Butadiene 4.06E-04 0.55

6 PAHs(Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon) 2.64E-03 3.55

7 Asbestos 1.90E-04 0.268 Cadmium 1.01E-02 13.589 Hexavalent chromium 3.45E-01 463.71

10 Nickel 6.16E-04 0.8311 Arsenic 8.12E-03 10.9112 Lead 2.84E-05 0.0413 Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM) 7.44E-04 1.00

4


Emissions Inventory Milestone Years

5

2018-Designated Communities

2019-Designated Communities

Baseline: 2017

Future milestone:

2024

Future milestone:

2029

Baseline: 2018

Future milestone:

2025

Future milestone:

2030


Emissions Forecasting

• Emissions are forecasted from base-year inventory using the following equation to incorporate the impacts of growth and regulations.

EFY = EBY x GF x CF

where: EFY = Future year emissions

EBY = Base year emissions

GF = Growth Factor

CF = Control Factor

6


South Coast Air Basin Criteria Air Pollutants

7

396 370274 269 262 258

380 369

345 341 338 335

6362

62 62 63 63

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2017 2018 2024 2025 2029 2030

Emis

sio

ns

(to

ns/

day

)

SoCAB

NOx VOC PM2.5


Southeast Los Angeles

Main sources:

• 70+ facilities with reporting emissions– Foundries and metal plating,

manufacturing, finishing– Auto body shops– Rendering– Packing

• Large railyards

• I-710 and Alameda corridor

8

AB 2588

Rule 1426

Rule 1469

Rule 1407/1420

US EPA Superfund Site

US EPA Title V

Facilities:Preliminary CommunityRevised CommunityEmissions Study Area

Community Boundaries:

Bell Gardens

Cudahy

Florence-Graham

Huntington Park

South Gate

Walnut Park

Local Boundaries:

South Coast Air Quality Management District 9

CAPs emissions trend in Southeast LA Community

2,838 2,629 2,611

2,868

2,098 1,983

433

427 431

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2018 2025 2030

Emis

sio

ns

(To

ns/

year

)

Southeast Los Angeles total emissions

VOC NOX PM2.5


Top 5 Sources of PM25 in the Southeast Los Angeles

75

58

4036

26

78

52

45

34

19

80

5147

34

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Cooking Light and Medium DutyAutomobile

Wood and Paper Fuel Combustion inManufacturing and

Industrial

Off-Road Equipment

ton

s/ye

ar

2018 2025 2030


TACs in Southeast Los Angeles

11

34%

33%28%

27%

9%10%

15%

22%

21%

8%

9%

9%

7%

15%

18%

2%

1%

1%

2%

4%

4%

96,527

53,513

47,508

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2018 2025 2030

lbs/

year

(to

xici

ty-w

eigh

ted

die

sel e

qu

ival

ent)

Off-Road Equipment Heavy Duty TrucksTrains Light and Medium Duty AutomobileChemical BusesOther (Fuel Combustion) Manufacturing and IndustrialOther (Industrial Processes) DegreasingCoatings and Related Processes Others


Top 10 Sources of TACs in the Southeast Los Angeles

12

32,795

25,713

14,392

7,9767,062

1,860 1,661 960 639 589 537

17,561

4,593

11,558

4,870

8,107

687 1,173 902 688 695 596

13,501

4,7469,903

4,141

8,475

5611,173 889 703 742 613

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Off-RoadEquipment

Heavy DutyTrucks

Trains Light andMedium DutyAutomobile

Chemical Buses Other (FuelCombustion)

Manufacturingand Industrial

Other(IndustrialProcesses)

Degreasing Coatings andRelated

Processes

Toxi

city

-wei

ghte

d D

iese

l Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Emis

sio

ns

(lb

s/ye

ar)

2018 2025 2030


Categories included in Off-Road Equipment in SELA

13

9,514

8,487

6,201

4,019

1,539980 870

491 351 182

4,732

3,922

2,5221,693 1,646

9751,083

429 336160

3,299

2,409

1,289 1,4411,737

1,0011,287

488 332 1550

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Constructionand MiningEquipment

IndustrialEquipment

CommercialEquipment

(Other)

Diesel TRU CommercialLawn and

Garden

Lawn andGarden Other

Rail Operations ResidentialLawn and

Garden

CommercialEquipment

(Commercial)

CommercialEquipment

(Residential)

Toxi

city

-wei

ghte

d D

iese

l Eq

uiv

alen

t Em

issi

on

s (l

bs/

year

)

2018 2025 2030


Top 5 TACs in Southeast Los Angeles: 2018

14

958

784

1,186

6,931

1,483

976

1,595

3,424

2,283

27,088

579

301

1,484

1,717

43,336

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Formaldehyde

Hexavalent Chromium

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

DPM

Emissions (lbs/year)

Southeast Los Angeles Community TACs Emissions (toxicity-weighted diesel equivalent) in 2018

Stationary and Area On-road Off-road



15

940

798

1,131

7,940

1,005

503

1,419

1,954

1,361

4,746

499

278

1,347

1,615

25,540

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Formaldehyde

Hexavalent Chromium

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

DPM






16

941

816

1,118

8,297

1,005

437

1,442

1,615

1,139

4,646

482

278

1,347

1,630

19,796

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Formaldehyde

Hexavalent Chromium

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

DPM





Top 5 Diesel PM Sources in Southeast Los Angeles

17

29,054

24,708

14,090

1,482

1,350

14,080

4,064

11,326

1,004

486

9,992

4,194

9,700

1,004

298

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Off-Road Equipment

Heavy Duty Trucks

Trains

Other (Fuel Combustion)

Light and Medium Duty Automobile


Top 5 Diesel PM SourcesSoutheast Los Angeles community

Year 2018

Year 2025

Year 2030


Proposed Regulations Reflected in the Future Emissions

18

Regulation Pollutant Control Factor

2025 2030

Proposed Heavy-Duty Low NOx Engine Standard NOx 0.972-0.992 0.814-0.933

Proposed Heavy-Duty Inspection and Maintenance PM2.5 0.614 0.571

Proposed Heavy-Duty Inspection and Maintenance NOx 0.851 0.827

Proposed Advanced Clean Car 2.0 PM2.5 1.000 0.976-0.992

Proposed Advanced Clean Car 2.0 NOx 1.000 0.955-0.998

Table 4. Control Factors for Emissions from Vehicles


Effect of Proposed Regulations on CAP Emissions in SELA

2868 2838

433

2098

2629

427

2015

2629

426

1983

2611

431

1839

2610

431

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

NOX VOC PM25

ton

s/ye

ar

2018

2025(adopted)

2025(adopted+proposed)

2030(adopted)



96,527

53,513 52,19947,508 45,961

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

TOTAL TAC (cancer-risk weighted)

lb/y

ear

(to

xici

ty-w

eigh

ted

die

sel e

qu

ival

ent)

2018

2025(adopted)


2030(adopted)


Effect of Proposed Regulations on TAC Emissions in SELA


Summary for SELA

• Total toxicity-weighted TACs emissions are expected to decline in future years

• Off-road equipment is the largest source of TAC emissions

• Diesel PM is the largest contributor to TAC emissions

• Diesel PM declines substantially in future years, but it remains the largest contributor to toxic emissions in the future

21


Eastern Coachella Valley

Main sources:

• Agricultural activities

• Transport through I-10, and routes 88 and 111

• Freight rail transport

• Construction and demolition

22

AB 2588

US EPA Title V

Facilities:

Community Boundary

Agricultural Land


CAPs Emissions Trend in Eastern Coachella Valley

750 822 877

1,376982 878

286

322 347

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2018 2025 2030

Emis

sio

ns

(To

ns/

year

)

Eastern Coachella Valley total emissions

VOC NOX PM2.5


PM2.5 emission trend in Eastern Coachella Valley

242

290316

27

20

22

17

11

9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2018 2025 2030

ton

s/ye

ar

Eastern Coachella Valley Community PM2.5 emission by source sectors (tons/yr)


Growth in PM2.5 driven by Construction and Demolition and Paved Road Dust


Top 5 Sources of PM2.5 in Eastern Coachella Valley

112

42

21 2014

153

48

20 1813

175

51

20 16 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Construction andDemolition

Paved Road Dust Fugitive Windblown Dust Farming Operations Light and Medium DutyAutomobile

ton

s/d

ay

2018 2025 2030


Top 5 Sources of PM10 in Eastern Coachella Valley

1117

276

144 135 118

1522

315

141 119 113

1749

335

139 110 111

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Construction andDemolition

Paved Road Dust Fugitive Windblown Dust Farming Operations Unpaved Road Dust

ton

s/ye

ar

2018 2025 2030


• There are several sources not included in the inventory:

– Unpermitted/Illegal burning

– Wildfire emissions

– Windblown dust

– Natural emissions

• For example, dust from the Salton Sea playa

27

Unaccounted Sources of PM Emissions


Saul Martinez Station

Indio Station

Wind Rose, data from 01/2016 to 10/2020 The strongest and most frequent hourly winds are northwesterly (desert area).

Source: Imperial Irrigation District Salton Sea Air Quality Mitigation Programhttps://saltonseaprogram.com/aqm/emissions-estimate.php

Percentage of Total Salton Sea Playa Emissions

Prevailing Winds and Dust Sources in ECV


TACs in Eastern Coachella Valley

29

30%

13% 15%

20%

21%14%

19%

24%

21%

18%

18%

18%

4%

11%

15%

3%

4%

5%

2%

4%

5%

57,097

31,349

25,930

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2018 2025 2030

lbs/

year

(to

xici

ty-w

eigh

ted

die

sel e

qu

ival

ent)

Heavy Duty Trucks TrainsFarm Equipment Off-Road EquipmentConstruction and Demolition Light and Medium Duty AutomobileChemical Other (Fuel Combustion)Fugitive Windblown Dust Farming OperationsPaved Road Dust Others


Top 10 Sources of TACs in Eastern Coachella Valley

30

16,959

11,60810,951

10,184

2,4701,879

606 584 302 292 238

3,938

6,5357,385

5,770

3,3661,232

820358 296 256 272

3,831 3,590

5,4874,692

3,867

1,169 924358 291 237 289

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Heavy DutyTrucks

Trains FarmEquipment

Off-RoadEquipment

Constructionand

Demolition

Light andMedium DutyAutomobile

Chemical Other (FuelCombustion)

FugitiveWindblown

Dust

FarmingOperations

Paved RoadDust

Toxi

city

-wei

ghte

d D

iese

l Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Emis

sio

ns

(lb

s/ye

ar)

2018 2025 2030


Categories included in Off-Road Equipment in ECV

31

6,714

1,077705 576

358 319 28596

3,304

469295

805468

105 107 169

2,160

285 250

1,050

590

54 66 189

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Construction andMining Equipment

IndustrialEquipment

Diesel TRU Commercial Lawnand Garden

Lawn and GardenOther

CommercialEquipment (Other)

Airport GSE Residential Lawnand Garden

Toxi

city

-we

igh

ted

Die

sel E

qu

iva

len

t Em

issi

on

s (l

bs/

year

)

2018 2025 2030


Top 5 TACs in Eastern Coachella Valley: 2018

32

1,321

121

640

1,829

562

8

866

585

3

16,864

1

539

598

18

31,280

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Arsenic

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

Cadmium

DPM


Eastern Coachella Valley Community TACs Emissions (toxicity-weighted diesel equivalent) in 2018




33

1,646

160

847

2,333

338

8

523

339

1

3,812

1

596

718

10

18,106

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Arsenic

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

Cadmium

DPM






34

1,827

171

947

2,600

338

9

501

316

1

3,630

0

668

843

6

12,006

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Arsenic

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

Cadmium

DPM





Top 5 Diesel PM Sources in Eastern Coachella Valley

35

16,548

11,396

10,700

9,184

562

3,682

6,412

7,188

4,506

338

3,544

3,510

5,322

3,174

338

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Heavy Duty Trucks

Trains

Farm Equipment

Off-Road Equipment

Other (Fuel Combustion)


Top 5 Diesel PM SourcesEastern Coachella Valley Community


Proposed Regulations Reflected in the Future Emissions

36

Regulation Pollutant Control Factor

2025 2030

Proposed Heavy-Duty Low NOx Engine Standard NOx 0.972-0.992 0.814-0.933

Proposed Heavy-Duty Inspection and Maintenance PM2.5 0.614 0.571

Proposed Heavy-Duty Inspection and Maintenance NOx 0.851 0.827

Proposed Advanced Clean Car 2.0 PM2.5 1.000 0.976-0.992

Proposed Advanced Clean Car 2.0 NOx 1.000 0.955-0.998

Table 4. Control Factors for Emissions from Vehicles


1376

750

286

982

822

322

941

822

321

878 877

347

811877

347

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

NOX VOC PM25

Emis

sio

ns

(to

ns/

year

)

2018

2025(adopted)


2030(adopted)


Effect of Proposed Regulations on CAP Emissions in ECV


57,097

31,34929,999

25,93024,471

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

TOTAL TAC (cancer-risk weighted)

lbs/

year

(to

xici

ty-w

eigh

ted

die

sel e

qu

ival

ent)

2018

2025(adopted)


2030(adopted)


Effect of Proposed Regulations on TAC Emissions in ECV


Summary for ECV

• Total toxicity-weighted TACs emissions are expected to decline in future years

• Heavy-duty trucks is the largest source of TAC emissions in the base year, and farm equipment becomes the largest source of TAC emissions in future years

• Diesel PM is the largest contributor to TAC emissions

• Diesel PM declines substantially in future years, but it remains the largest contributor to toxic emissions in the future

39


Limitations and Uncertainties

• Emissions inventory does not account for transport

– Additional source attribution techniques will be used in the future (e.g. MATES V, community monitoring)

• Grid resolution impacts the accuracy of data within a community

• Area and off-road categories rely on generic spatial surrogates to assign emissions at a specific location. This allocation might not reflect the precise locations of these emissions within a community

• Uncertainties in chemical speciation profiles used in VOC, PM and air toxics

40


Updates to Emissions Inventory and Air Quality Modeling

• Available datasets:– MATES IV (2012-2013)

– 2016 AQMP

– 2020 SIP revisions

– AB617 2018-designated and 2019-designated community inventories

• Upcoming updates– MATES V expected availability in 2021

– 2022 AQMP, with major revisions in emissions and modeling methodologies

41


Neighborhood Scale Modeling

• Goals:– Develop modeling tools to estimate exposure at neighborhood

scale

• Hybrid approach using regional air quality models and high-resolution dispersion models

– Identify contribution of regional transport, area and off-road mobile sources

– Potential use in identifying hot spots

– Analysis and integration of community monitoring data

• Ongoing work:– Developing the modeling capabilities

– Modeling 5 major TACs from on-road sources, large facilities

– Considering large emitters such as railyards

• Preliminary results expected in 2021


Overall Summary

• On-road and off-road sources dominate air pollutant and toxic air contaminant emissions in both Year 2 communities

• Diesel PM is the dominant TAC in the two communities

• On-road Diesel PM is expected to decline significantly, but overall, Diesel PM continues to be the most prevalent TAC in the future

– Off-road equipment is projected to become the largest emitter in SELA by 2025 and beyond

– Farm equipment is projected to become the largest emitter in ECV by 2025 and beyond

43


Questions

44

blog.cleanenergy.org

Documents

Emissions Inventory in the Base and Future Milestone Years