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1
Employment and Commercial
Review Workshop (Part 1)
Commercial Land Demand and Supply
Analysis
2
Overview
• Macro-Demographics Trends
• Commercial Market Demand
• Commercial Supply
• Key Issues, Opportunities, and Preliminary
Directions
3
MACRO-DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS
4
Macro Economic Trends
• Provincial economic growth has
been relatively modest since the
global economic downturn of
2008/09
• Provincial/GTHA economy shifting
from goods-producing sectors to the
service sector
• Structural changes have created
challenges/ opportunities regarding
the role of employment lands
5
GTHA Overview
• GTHA is one of the largest and fastest growing Cities/Regions in North America
• Strong and diverse “export-based” economy well represented by a number of major industry clusters
• Office development activity in the GTHA has been relatively strong though there has been a significant shift from “905” to downtown Toronto
• Market for employment lands continues to move west
6
Oakville Growth Outlook within
GTHA Context• Halton Region is anticipated to be the fastest
growing upper/single tier municipality in the GTHA over the next 30 years
• Oakville is well positioned geographically to accommodate a diverse mix of non-residential development driven by:
– proximity to surrounding employment markets
– access to transportation infrastructure
– growing skilled labour force
– competitive business environment
– ample employment land supply
– high quality of life
7
Growth Forecast Methodology
• How does population growth impact demand for
commercial, institutional and employment lands?
– Community-based industries (e.g. retail commercial, personal
service uses, schools and government services) – directly tied to
population growth
– Export-based industries (e.g. industrial and office) - tend to be
driven by broader economic/market conditions as well as
regional/local attributes. For these industries, employment growth
is not typically driven by the local population
8
Employment Growth
Forecasts
Town of Oakville Population Forecast
2031: 246,400 (Halton Best Planning Estimates)
2041: 265,000 (Watson & Associates)
9
COMMERCIAL MARKET
DEMAND
10
Consumer Surveys
• The in-home consumer telephone
surveys, on-street interviews and
license plate surveys were
complete in December 2014
• Received survey results for over
5,000 surveys
• Have analysed responses and
incorporated into the analysis
• Represents a snapshot in time
11
2014 Resident’s Spending Trends
(Food)
Major Retail Category
Resident Expenditure
Potential Distribution
Local Capture
Share
Supermarket $390.20 88.1% $357.3 91.6%
Other Food $52.50 11.9% $44.8 85.3%
Oakville Total $442.70 100.0% $402.1 90.8%
Values stated in million dollars annually
12
2014 Resident’s Spending Trends
(Non-Food)
Major Retail Category
Resident
Expenditure
Potential Distribution
Local Capture
Share
Department Stores $185.50 15.1% $154.4 83.2%
Building and Outdoor Home Supplies Stores $151.10 12.3% $112.8 74.7%
Home & Automotive Supply (e.g Canadian
Tire) $69.40 5.7% $60.0 86.5%
Warehouse Membership Clubs (e.g. Costco) $117.90 9.6% $0.0 0.0%
General Merchandise $26.80 2.2% $18.5 69.0%
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores $184.10 15.0% $166.3 90.3%
Other Select Retail (e.g. Furniture, Clothing,
Miscellaneous) $490.30 40.0% $273.7 55.8%
Oakville Total $1,225.10 100.0% $785.7 64.1%
Values stated in million dollars annually
13
NORTHWEST
ZONE
NORTHEAST
ZONE
SOUTH ZONE
13 18
15
14
12
2119
11 16
5 74
8
10
9
10
3
6 1
2
17
20
Residential Retail
Regional Commercial Node
Community Node
Downtowns
Employment Areas
Retail Nodes
14
Existing Retail Inventory Summary
Retail Space By Major Category Inventory Base, 2014 (sq. ft.)
Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 3,775,900
Sub-Total Food Retail 1,000,400
Other Retail & Service 3,758,700
Vacant Space 378,900
Total Existing Space (including
Vacant)
8,913,900
The Town's current retail inventory is equivalent to approximately
47.8 sq. ft. per capita.
15
NORTHWEST
ZONE
NORTHEAST
ZONE
SOUTH ZONE
15
Existing Supermarkets
1
16
6
11
18
7
12
2
14
4
10
13
59
17
83
Metro Related
Loblaws Related
Sobeys Related
Longos Related
Other Related
Discount Store
Full Service Store
16
NORTHWEST
ZONE
NORTHEAST
ZONE
SOUTH ZONE
Existing Department Stores
17
NORTHWEST
ZONE
NORTHEAST
ZONE
SOUTH ZONE
Existing Building and Home Supply
18
NORTHWEST
ZONE
NORTHEAST
ZONE
SOUTH ZONE
Existing Canadian Tires
19
Retail Space DemandRetail Space By Major Category 2041 Additional Space % Growth over 2014
Department Store 260,000 48%
Building & Outdoor Home Supply 193,000 32%
Canadian Tire 109,000 44%
Warehouse Membership Club (e.g. Costco) 140,000 100%
Other General Merchandise 44,000 69%
Drug & Cosmetics 153,000 53%
Other Non-Food Retail (Clothing, Furniture, Automotive,
Miscellaneous)
603,000 30%
Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 1,502,000 40%
Supermarket 282,000 35%
Other Food 75,000 37%
Sub-Total Food Retail 357,000 57%
Other Retail & Service 1,420,000 38%
Vacant Space Contingency (assumed 5%) 243,000 64%
TOTAL 3,522,000 40%
20
Commercial Land Demand
Estimate of Warranted New Space Land Requirements (Acres) 2021 2031 2041
Coverage ratio 25% 127 268 323
Coverage ratio 30% 106 224 270
Coverage ratio 40% 79 168 202
Coverage ratio 50% 63 134 162
Estimate of Warranted New Space Land Requirements (HA) 2021 2031 2041
Coverage ratio 25% 51 109 131
Coverage ratio 30% 43 91 109
Coverage ratio 40% 32 68 82
Coverage ratio 50% 26 54 65
21
COMMERCIAL SUPPLY
22
23
24
Vacant Commercial Land Supply
South Oakville
• Total of 20 ha. vacant
• 32 sites identified:
– 25 sites < 0.5 ha.
– 2 sites between 0.5 – 1.0 ha.
– 4 sites between 1 and 2 ha.
– 1 site approximately 7 ha.
25
Oakville’s Commercial Lands
Confidential, for discussion purposes
only.
26
Vacant Commercial Land Supply
• Maximum permitted commercial in North
Oakville
Area Max. total retail space permitted (s.m.)
Trafalgar Urban Core Area 93,000
Dundas Urban Core Area 32,000
• Service commercial space is not limited
Neyagawa Urban Core Area 31,000
• Service commercial space is not limited
Palermo Village North Urban Core
Area
7,000
27
Commercial Supply Assumptions
* less existing built commercial (14,000 s.m.) at Dundas and Neyagawa
Area Space (sq.m.)
Trafalgar Urban Core Area 93,000 retail and service
Dundas Urban Core Area 32,000 retail
21,000 service
-14,000* built
Neyagawa Urban Core Area 31,000 retail
21,000 service
Palermo Village North Urban Core
Area
7,000 retail
Potential on vacant land south
Oakville
60,000 retail
Total 251,000
28
• Current Trafalgar Urban Core Policy allows additional retail space
subject to market study so shortfall could be less
Commercial Supply versus Demand
Space (sq.m.)
Warranted Demand 325,000
Opportunity on Commercial Lands 251,000
Opportunity on Employment
Lands
(assume 20% of demand)
72,100
Shortfall 1,900
29
Issues / Challenges
• Assumes 100% build out of vacant lands in South Oakville
– Difficult to achieve because of # of small sites
• Assumes North Oakville builders will build commercial
• Requires a major regional centre in North Oakville
• Requires a number of grocery store anchored centres in
North Oakville
• Assumes continued trend of 20% commercial on
employment lands
30
KEY ISSUES,
OPPORTUNITIES, AND
PRELIMINARY DIRECTIONS
31
Key Issues Details Preliminary Direction
The vacant commercial supply is unbalancedThere is an unbalanced supply of commercial
lands in the north and south areas.
Direction #2: Encourage provision of
commercial in Northwest Zone
Direction #4: Implement policy definition
to ensure commercial uses are
developed in North Oakville
The current policy framework permits
commercial but does not guarantee
commercial will be built
Current policy in North Oakville permits retail in
mixed use forms directed to the Urban Core
Areas
There are currently no applications for
commercial uses in the Trafalgar Urban Core
or Neyagawa Urban Core
The assumption that North Oakville will be built
to maximum floor space permitted may not be
realistic
Direction #4: Implement policy definition
to ensure commercial uses are
developed in North Oakville
Assumptions of 100% build out of vacant
commercial lands may not be realistic
It is difficult to achieve 100% build out, as a
number of the vacant supply sites are very
small in south Oakville.
Direction #5: Develop a monitoring
program
Current policy permits limited retail and service
commercial uses in employment designated
areas
Currently 20% of the commercial uses in
Oakville are located on employment
designated lands.
Direction in Employment Lands Review
(allow for a broader range of amenities
within employment areas)
32
Key Opportunities Details Preliminary Direction
Estimated demand will support significant
commercial investment
The projected population growth in North
Oakville is intended to support demand for a
number of local retail centres and a major retail
centre in North Oakville
N/A
There are opportunities to increase standards
to promote attractive and pedestrian friendly
commercial areas
With the anticipated demand and investment,
there is an opportunity to review the Town's
design standards related to promoting
attractive and pedestrian friendly commercial
areas to ensure new investment is made in
quality commercial forms.
Direction #1: Strengthen design policies
for mixed use and commercial
development
There are opportunities for intensification and
redevelopment
While most of the land in the south portion of
Oakville is built-out, there are a number of
opportunities for intensification and infill within
the occupied commercial lands
Direction #3: Promote intensification and
redevelopment of existing built up
commercial areas
There are opportunities for and strong policy
support of mixed use development
Mixed use built forms can improve the public
realm and provide amenities, while supporting
sustainable urban environments
Direction #1: Strengthen design policies
for mixed use and commercial
development
Shopping habits are changing
Opportunity to consider new built forms. This
will allow Oakville to continue to be successful
within an ever-evolving regional marketplace
Direction #5: Develop a monitoring
program