Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Update on SPSC Reference Case State-Adjusted Load Forecasts Galen Barbose and Andy Satchwell

Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group

Update on SPSC Reference CaseUpdate on SPSC Reference Case“State-Adjusted Load Forecasts”“State-Adjusted Load Forecasts”

Galen Barbose and Andy SatchwellLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

TEPPC DSM Task Force Conference CallAugust 12, 2010


SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastBackground/ContextBackground/Context

Agreement was reached between SPSC and TEPPC that there will be two different 2020 “reference cases” in the TEPPC study- TEPPC reference case: based directly on LRS load forecast data- State-Adjusted Load Forecast case: adjustments made to LRS data to

account for SPSC expectations about energy efficiency and demand response impacts under current policies and utility plans

Development of the SPSC State-Adjusted Load Forecasts occurred through SPSC’s DSM Working Group

A formal approval/vetting process was used, requiring official “sign-off” by each SPSC member for their state/province’s forecast

The final set of SPSC State-Adjusted Load Forecasts was delivered to TEPPC last Friday (August 6th)

Documentation for each state/province is posted here:

http://www.westgov.org/sptsc/site/workgroups/dsmwg.htm

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Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 3

SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastReview of Basic Analytical ApproachReview of Basic Analytical Approach

For each balancing authority (except BAs in California*):

1. Estimate the energy efficiency savings already embedded within balancing authorities’ load forecasts Rely on combination of: (a) responses to WECC DSM Survey, (b)

recent utility IRPs, (c) direct contact with utility load forecasters

2. Estimate the expected savings from current/ongoing energy efficiency programs and policies Focus on (a) utility ratepayer-funded EE programs and (b) new

federal appliance efficiency standards

3. If the results of Step 1 and Step 2 differ substantially, develop a modified load forecast that reflects (reasonably well) the expected load impacts estimated in Step 2.

* For all California BAs, we relied on CEC IEPR demand forecast, the Itron Incremental Impacts study (Low Scenario), and POU savings goals

Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group 4

In Graphical Form…In Graphical Form…


SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastOverview of ResultsOverview of Results

Attached Excel file “State-Adjusted Load Forecast (annual).xls” identifies 2020 annual energy (GWh) and annual peak (MW) for each BA

Downward adjustments to LRS load forecasts made for 28 of 32 BAs (no adjustment for AESO, BCHA, CFE, or PSC)

In many cases, adjustments solely reflected the impact of new federal standards; ratepayer-funded programs were already fully captured in the LRS data

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Percent Reduction in LRS 2020 Forecast Across All 32 BAs GWh MW

Load-weighted average -3.9% -4.9%

Min 0.0% 0.0%25th percentile -2.6% -3.6%

Median -4.1% -4.3%75th percentile -5.7% -5.7%

Max (TEP) -20.6% -18.3%


SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastAPSAPS

A B C D = A - (B - C) E = (D/A - 1)

LRS ForecastSPSC Reference Case Efficiency

Savings

Savings Embedded in LRS Forecast

State-Adjusted Load Forecast

Percent Change from BA Forecast

2020 GWh 35,990 7,661 6,189 34,518 -4.1%2020 MW 8,407 1,515 1,160 8,053 -4.2%

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SPSC Reference Case Efficiency Savings include:- Ratepayer-funded program savings: calculated assuming full compliance with

Arizona Energy Efficiency Rule (20% cumulative savings by 2020)

- New Federal appliance and lighting efficiency standards

LRS Forecast was determined to fully account for ratepayer-funded programs, but not for new federal standards

- This determination was made based on discussions with APS’ Chief Economist and Director of Revenue and Fuel Analysis and Forecasts

Thus the only adjustment to the LRS forecast was to deduct the expected savings from standards


SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastBPABPA

A B C D = A - (B - C) E = (D/A - 1)

LRS ForecastSPSC Reference Case Efficiency

Savings

Savings Embedded in LRS Forecast



2020 GWh 57,815 6,290 3,022 54,547 -5.7%2020 MW 10,377 834 401 9,943 -4.2%

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SPSC Reference Case Efficiency Savings assume full achievement of the conservation targets in the NPCC’s 6th Power Plan

- These targets are presumed to more-or-less capture the impacts of both ratepayer-funded programs and new federal standards

Based on analysis provided by BPA load forecasting staff, it was determined that the LRS forecast implicitly assumed savings levels consistent with the NPCC’s 5th Power Plan

Thus the adjustment to the LRS forecast is equal to the difference between the savings levels in the 6th and 5th Power Plans


SPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastSPSC State-Adjusted Load ForecastCISOCISO

A B C = A - B D = (C/A - 1)

LRS ForecastIncremental

Reference Case Savings



2020 GWh 265,869 15,249 250,621 -5.7%2020 MW 54,731 5,232 50,066 -8.5%

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Existing analyses by the CEC allowed us to take a simpler approach for CISO

- LRS forecast is based on CEC’s IEPR demand forecast, which explicitly accounts for “committed” energy efficiency programs/policies

- CEC/Itron Incremental Impacts study estimates the additional savings from a set of “uncommitted” programs/policies, under three scenarios (Low, Medium, High), for the IOU service territories

SPSC representatives decided that the State-Adjusted Load Forecast should assume achievement of the Low Scenario

- Incremental Reference Case Savings also include planned ratepayer-funded savings from publicly owned utilities within CISO


WECC LSE DSM SurveyWECC LSE DSM SurveySummary and Lessons LearnedSummary and Lessons Learned

The TEPPC DSM Task Force developed a survey instrument to collect information from LSEs about the energy efficiency assumptions embedded in the LRS load forecasts

Responses received from 14 of the 40 LSEs who received the survey

These responses were used in developing the State-Adjusted Load Forecasts (though their usefulness was sometimes limited, due to incompleteness, ambiguity, or tardiness)

Future discussion is needed to decide how/whether to collect information about embedded energy efficiency savings next year- Do we continue to administer a separate survey, or do we try to

collect this information through the LRS data collection process?

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Non-Firm Load (Demand Response) Analysis Non-Firm Load (Demand Response) Analysis for the State-Adjusted Load Forecastfor the State-Adjusted Load Forecast

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Non-Firm Load ForecastsNon-Firm Load Forecasts

WECC BAs submit non-firm load forecasts for 2020 by program type- Interruptible load (demand made available by contract or agreement for

curtailment)- Direct load control (demand under control of system operator)- Critical peak pricing with control (direct remote control with pre-specified

critical peak price)- Load as a capacity resource (can be committed for pre-specified load

reductions under certain system conditions) Two-part analysis for the SPSC Reference Case:

- Assess whether LRS non-firm load forecasts are consistent with current state DR policies and utility DR plans; make adjustments to LRS data if warranted

- Make recommendations on how to model non-firm resources within TEPPC production cost model

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Validation of Non-Firm Load ForecastsValidation of Non-Firm Load Forecasts

LRS data indicates total non-firm resource of 7,316 MW in 2020 Each BA’s forecast of non-firm load was compared to utility IRPs, 2008

FERC Demand Response (DR) Survey Results, and state regulatory filings

We identify seven BAs with apparently significant under-reporting of non-firm load

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Balancing Authority

2020 Reported (MW)

Recommended Resources

(MW) Sources

APS 0 3622009 IRP data for 2020 resources provided directly to LBL and analysis of state EES maximum DR credit

BPA 0 297 2008 FERC DR Survey data

CAISO (North) 1006 1205PG&E April 2010 compliance filing, Appendix C, 1 in 2 weather year ex ante projection for 2020

PACE 773 893 2008 IRP data for 2018 resources, Table 5-6PGE 0 95 2009 IRP data for 2020 resources, Table 4-9SCL 0 72 2008 IRP data for 2020 resources, Appendix EWACM 0 1031 2008 FERC DR Survey data

Documents

Energy Analysis Department Electricity Markets and Policy Group Update on SPSC Reference Case State-Adjusted Load Forecasts Galen Barbose and Andy Satchwell