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Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim [email protected]

Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim [email protected]

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Page 1: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Energy and Economy

Energy Modelling Lab.Department of Energy Studies,

Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim

[email protected]

Page 2: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr
Page 3: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

A Look at Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Page 4: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Recession and Oil Price

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Page 5: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

A Look at Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Page 6: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

A Look at Short-Run Economic Fluctuations

Page 7: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Crude Oil Price: Historical Trend

Page 8: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

China Coal Impact – 30% production reduction

Page 9: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Crude Oil Price Fluctuation (1970-2010)

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

China Coal Impact – 30% production reduction

Page 10: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

OPEC Production & Crude Oil Prices 

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Page 11: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Non-OPEC Production & Crude Oil Prices 

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Page 12: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

U.S. Petroleum Consumption

Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

Page 13: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Gold and Oil Prices Historical Relationship

Source: The Underlying Causes of Oil Price Fluctuations,

Page 14: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr
Page 15: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Figure 1 The Circular-Flow Diagram

Page 16: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

GDP and Its Components

Copyright©2004 South-Western

Page 17: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Real and Nominal GDP

Copyright©2004 South-Western

Page 18: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

GDP, Life Expectancy, and Literacy

Copyright©2004 South-Western

Page 19: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

The Typical Basket of Goods and Services

Page 20: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Two Measures of Inflation

Page 21: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Growth and Investment

Page 22: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

The Variety of Growth Experiences

Copyright©2004 South-Western

Page 23: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

The U.S. Government Debt

Page 24: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

The Breakdown of the Population in 2001

Page 25: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Unemployment Rate since 1960

Page 26: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

U.S. Real GDP Growth since 1900

Page 27: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply

Page 28: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply

Page 29: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr
Page 30: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Energy & Economy

Page 31: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Energy & Economy

Page 32: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Future Energy Path?

Page 33: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Future Energy Price? (2002 $ per barrel)

Page 34: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Oil Price Forecasting

Page 35: Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

Energy & Economy