Energy and Environment - ULisboa · Energy and Environment Tânia Sousa Tiago Domingos MARETEC –Marine, Environment and Technology Centre ... SOLAR RADIAÇÃO TÉRMICA Quando a

Energy and Environment

Tânia SousaTiago Domingos

MARETEC – Marine, Environment and Technology CentreEnvironment and Energy Scientific AreaDepartment of Mechanical Engineering

Integrated Master in Environmental Engineering

Sustainable Development

“Empty World”

Costanza, R., J. Cumberland, H. Daly, R. Goodland, R. Norgaard (1997). An

Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA.

“Full World”

Costanza, R., J. Cumberland, H. Daly, R. Goodland, R. Norgaard (1997). An

Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, FL, USA.

A brief history of Humankind …

Environment

Economy

De-growth

Smart growth

BAU

Have we crossed the limits?

Environment

Economy

Sustainability Threshold

… or not?

Environment

Economy

Sustainability Threshold

Climate and Greenhouse Gases

Balanço de Energia da Terra

TERRARADIAÇÃO

SOLARRADIAÇÃO TÉRMICA

Quando a radiação solar é superior à radiação térmica, a Terra aquece e estabelece-se um novo equilíbrio.

proporcional à temperatura da Terra

Efeito de Estufa

A atmosfera retorna parte da radiação térmica à Terra, aumentando a temperatura da Terra. – EFEITO DE ESTUFA

Os componentes principais da atmosfera que causam este efeito são:

Vapor de água, H2ODióxido de carbono, CO2

Metano, CH4

Óxido de Azoto, N2O

TERRARADIAÇÃO

SOLARRADIAÇÃO TÉRMICA

proporcional à temperatura da Terra

ATMOSFERA

Temperatura Global

IPC

C, 2

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In:

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The

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ibuti

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enta

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anni

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and

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.

Forçamento Radiativo

Dinâmica dos Gases de Efeito de EstufaDióxido de Carbono

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Dinâmica dos Gases de Efeito de EstufaMetano




Dinâmica dos Gases de Efeito de EstufaÓxido de Azoto




Gases de Efeito de Estufa e Energia

• Dióxido de carbono (CO2)– Combustíveis fósseis– Alterações do uso do solo

• Metano (CH4)– Animais– Combustíveis fósseis

• Óxido de Azoto (N2O)– Agricultura

• O contributo maioritário para a emissão de gases de efeito de estufa é a utilização de combustíveis fósseis, associado ao processo de desenvolvimento económico iniciado com a Revolução Industrial.

• O problema dos gases de efeito de estufa não pode assim ser dissociado do problema da gestão de energia.

• A agricultura e floresta são o segundo componente mais significativo

Comida

Restaurantes

Recreio

Roupa

Habitação

Comunicação

Saúde

Transportes

Educação

Diversos

Emissões de Gases de Efeito de Estufa por Produto na Europa

Huppes, G., A. de Koning, S. Suh, R. Heijungs, L. van Oers, P. Nielsen, and J. B. Guinée (2006). Environmental Impacts of Consumption in the European Union: High-Resolution Input-Output Tables with Detailed Environmental Extensions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 10(3): 129–146.

CarneLacticínios

AquecimentoCozinha

Água quente, Electrodomésticos,

Construção

Automóvel privado, Transporte aéreo

Decarbonisation of Energy Systems


Decreasing trend in CO2

emitted per GJ from 1850 to 2000

2010: 108 GJ/capita/year

7600 kg CO2/capita/year


Historically energy related biomass burning has not been carbon-neutral (maximum estimated value of 38%)


Why a slight increasing trend in the last 10 years?

TS1

Slide 21

TS1 The average hydrogen/carbon ratios show that the degree of unsaturation increases from natural gas through petroleum to coal. The amount of

carbon dioxide released per mole also increases as the amount of unsaturation increases. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, from this

data, it would appear that burning coal would have a larger greenhouse effect than burning natural gas.Tânia Sousa, 03/03/2016

Ecological Footprint

Impacto da pegada ecológica

Relatório anual Global Footprint Network, 2010

WWF Living Report, 2010 Circular enviada pela Global Footprint Network

GFN_OvershootExplained_2009.mp4

0

1

1

2

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

year

Carbon

Agriculture

PasturesFisheries

Forest

Infrastructure

The global ecological footprint ... as usually presented

0

1

1

2

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

year

Carbon

Agriculture

PasturesFisheries

ForestInfrastructure

The global ecological footprint … as it should be presented

Why forest?It could be:1. Considering all areas (not only forest)2. Bioenergy (Wackernagel and Rees, 1996)4. the number of global hectares originally needed to producethe living matter embodied in a given quantity of fossil fuel.

Shadow projects that can be considered either to compensate or avoid carbon emission…and

The most efficient should be chosen

"The IPCC report’s findings make clear that with

each passing year of continued high emissions, the

prospect of keeping temperatures from rising less

than 2°°°°C through emissions reductions alone will

become ever more vanishingly small." –Peter

Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists

MacKay, D.J.C (2009). Sustainable Energy – without the hot air. Cambridge, England.

Central Solar PS10 em Sevilha

Some data about CSP

http://www.desertec.org/organization/

Zickfeld, F., Wieland, A (2012). 2050 Desert Power. Munich, Germany.

Some data about CSP


48

38

114

60

100

143149

124

61

183

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Wind on-shore

3000FLH

Coal6000FLH

UtilityPV2000FLH

Windonshore

2400FLH

Wind off-shore

4000FLH

UtilityPV1600FLH

CSP4000FLH

Wind off-shore

3200FLH

CCGT4000FLH

CSP3200FLH

€/MWh

Some data about CSP


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Wind on-shore

3000FLH

Coal6000FLH

UtilityPV2000FLH

Windonshore

2400FLH

Wind off-shore

4000FLH

UtilityPV1600FLH

CSP4000FLH

Wind off-shore

3200FLH

CCGT4000FLH

CSP3200FLH

Investment (€/kW)

Central Solar PS10 em Sevilha

Space needed for solar power plants to generate sufficient electric power in order to meet the electricity demand of the World, Europe (EU-25) and Germany (De) respectively. (Data by the German Center of Aerospace (DLR), 2005)

0

1

1

2

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

The global ecological footprint … with carbon compensated by solar energy

Carbon

Agriculture

PasturesFisheries

ForestInfrastructure

Thermodynamics: Scales and Units

Energy Units and Scales

IIASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012

Thermodynamics: 1st Law

Heat and Work - Joule’s Experiment

• Equivalence between Heat (Q) and Work (W)

First Law energy efficiencies

• Power Cycle • 1st Law efficiency

cycle

in

W

Qη =

Typical values of 1st law efficiencies

• 1st Law efficiencies from primary to final energy

Refinery, Sines

Coal Power Plant, Sines

CCTG Power Plant, Tapada Outeiro

Typical values of 1st law efficiencies

• 1st Law efficiencies from final to useful energy

Are there 1st law efficiencies > 1?

• Refrigerator & Heat Pump Cycles

• 1st Law efficiencies

– Heat Pump

– Refrigerator

out

cycle

Q

Wγ =

in

cycle

Q

Wβ =

• What is the 1st Law efficiency in a heat pump?

Typical values of η between 3 – 5

• What is the Sankey diagram like?

Are there 1st law efficiencies > 1?

11

1

out out

inout in

out

Q Q

QW Q Q

Q

γ = = = >− −

Are 1st law efficiencies enough?

Heating of a house can be done by one of the following methods:1. Electrical heating using the Joule effect2. Central heating 3. Heating using a heat pump

Are first law efficiencies enough?

• Providing 1 kWh of heat at 30ºC to a building with an outsidetemperature of 4ºC

• First law efficiencies do not provide information on how muchyou can improve your efficiency

Electrical

Resistance

Central

Heating

Heat

Pump

Ideal Heat

Pump

Final (kWh) 1 1/0.90 1/3 1/12

Useful(kWh)

1 1 1 1

First Law 100% 90% 300% 1200%

Is the first law enough?

• What has the first law has to say about what happens in the following case?

Thermodynamics: Second Law

Spontaneous Processes

• Hot coffee in a cold room gets colder and not hotter

• Radiating energy is received by the Earthfrom the sun and by outer space from the earth and not the other way around.

• If the valve of a tyre is opened, air gets out and not in

The state variable: Entropy

• Entropy is the state variable that gives unidirectionality to time in physical processes ocurring in isolated & adiabatic systems.

Entropy Balance in Adiabatic Systems

Entropy change = Entropy production

• 2nd Law: In an adiabatic system the entropy must not decrease

S σ∆ =

Entropy Balance in Closed Systems

Entropy change = Entropy transfer in the form of heat + entropy production

Entropy flows with heat but not with work

QS

Tσ∆ = +

Second law efficiencies

• Ratio between 1st law real and best efficiencies

• Providing 1 kWh of heat at 30ºC to a building with an outside temperature of 4ºC

• Second law efficiencies provide information on how much you can improve your efficiency

Electrical

Resistance

Central

Heating

Heat

Pump

Ideal Heat

Pump

Final (kWh) 1 1/0.90 1/3 1/12

Useful (kWh) 1 1 1 1

First Law ε 100% 90% 300% 1200%

Second Law ε 8.3% 7.5% 25% 100%

Typical values of 2nd law efficiencies

• Overall 2nd law efficiency in convertingprimary to final is 76% and primary to usefulenergy is 10%

IAASA - Global Energy Assessment 2012

Second law efficiencies

• Second law efficiencies by providing information on how much you can improve your efficiency show where efforts should be made

Rosen and Dincer, 1997

Energy Stages

Stages of Energy - Primary Energy

Stages of Energy - Final Energy

Stages of Energy – Useful Energy

Stages of Energy

• Primary energy – embodied in resources as it is found in nature (coal, oil, natural gas in the ground)

• Final energy – sold to final consumers such as households or firms (electricity, diesel, processed natural gas)

• Useful energy – in the form that isused: light, heat, cooling and mechanical power (stationary or transport)

• Productive energy – the fraction of useful energy that we actually use

From Primary Energy to Energy Services



Energy Supplyenergy flows driven by resource availability and conversion technologies


The energy supply sector dealing with primary energy is referred as “upstream” activities



The energy supply sector dealing with secondary energy is referred as “downstream” activities



Energy DemandEnergy system is service driven



Quality and cost of energy services


Useful Energy

• How do you go from final to useful energy for household electricity consumption?

• Electrical resistance 100%• Electrical motor 90%• Fluorescent lamp 50%• Refrigerator 200%• Heat pump 250%

Useful Energy

• How do you go from final to useful energy for household electricity consumption?

• Electrical resistance 100%• Electrical motor 90%• Fluorescent lamp 50%• Refrigerator 200%• Heat pump 250%

,useful final i i

i

E E η=∑

Sankey diagrams

• Schematic representation of the energy flow

f in a l

p r im a ry

E

Eη =

u s e fu l

f in a l

E

Eη =

productive

useful

E

Eη =

Miguel Águas (2009)

Sankey diagram for Portugal 2010

World Sankey Diagram in 2005

IAASA – Global Energy Assessment 2012

History of Energy Use

Energy Management

Class # 9 : Energy Economics

Population (lines) Primary energy use (bars)

industrialized countries

(white squares and bars)

developing countries

(gray triangles and bars)

Energy use data includes estimates of noncommercial energy use

Primary Energy Use 1800-2000

Grubler, A. “Energy Transitions”

Population (lines) Primary energy use (bars)

industrialized countries

(white squares and bars)

developing countries

(gray triangles and bars)

Energy use data includes estimates of noncommercial energy use

• Primary energy use increased more than 20-fold in 200 years

• Heterogeneity in per capita primary energy use:• In industrialized countries population increased linearly while primary

energy use increased exponentially until recently

• In developing countries energy use increased proportionally to population until recently

• Primary Energy Mix ?

Primary Energy Use 1800-2000



Primary Energy Mix 1850-2010




• Mostly biomass in 1850

• Increasing diversification of energy vectors





• Energy Transition: The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)



Energy Transition biomass to coal



Energy Transition biomass to coal Energy Transition coal to oil



Energy Transition biomass to coal Energy Transition coal to oil

Stabilization

Energy Eras and Transitions

• Energy Transformations before industrial civilization:


• Energy Transformations before industrial civilization: – Solar radiation – food & feed, light and heat

– Animate labor from humans and work animals (levers, inclined planes, pulleys) – mechanical work & transport

– Kinetic energies of water & wind – mechanical work & transport

– Biomass fuels (wood, charcoal, crop residues, dung) –residential & industrial heat and light


• Energy Transformations before industrial civilization: – Dominant in the western world until the 2nd half of the 19th century

– Dominant for most of humankind until middlle of the 20th century

– Annual per capita primary energy consumption < 20 GJ

Energy Units and Scales



• Energy Transformations that came with industrial civilization: – Fossil fuels – heat & mechanical work & transport (steam

engines, internal combustion engines and steam turbines)

Energy Transitions

• An aggregated transition to other energy source(s) includes numerous services and sectors

Energy Transitions

• The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another (Fouquet & Pearson, 2012)

16th century (tall narrow chimneys and suitable grates )17th century (coal gets even cheaper)

Energy Transitions


1709 (coke)18th century (efficiency improvments)

Energy Transitions


1804 (1st steam locomotive)

Why do energy transitions occur?

• Main Drivers/Catalyst for adoption of a new energy carrier:– Price of energy

– Better/Different Service

– Technological change and innovation

– Efficiency improvments

Why do energy transitions occur?

• Main Drivers/Catalyst for adoption of a new energy carrier:– Price of energy

– Better/Different Service

– Technological change and innovation

– Efficiency improvments

– Environmental Impacts?

Power generation 1990-2010

• Despite an increasing contribution across two decades, the

share of non-fossil generation has failed to keep pace with the

growth in generation from fossil fuels.

© OECD/IEA

2012

Ele

ctri

city

ge

ne

ratio

n (

TW

h)

Sh

are

of e

lect

rici

ty (

%)

Nuclear

HydroNon-hydro renewables

IEA - Energy Technology Perspectives 2012

Final Energy from 1900-2000

World final energy use by consumers.Solids (such as coal and biomass,brown), Liquids (such as oil, red) and fuels delivered via dedicated Grids (such as natural gas and electricity, green).




“With rising incomes, consumers payincreasing attention to convenience and cleanliness, favoring liquids and grid-delivered energy forms”




Developing countries

OECD (squares)




Heterogeneity in final energy quality


Final Energy per capita in 2010

• Heterogeneity in Final Energy Use per capita:


What is Final Energy used for?

• UK 1800-2000


What is Final Energy used for?

• Regular expansion ofenergy services in 19th

– dominated by heat and transport

• High volatility due topolitical and economic events

• Moderated growth after 1950– Decline in industrial energy services compensated by strong

growth in transport

• Saturated at a level of 6 EJ or 100 GJ/capita

• What about energy services?


From Final Energy to Energy Services

• UK 1800-2000


• UK 1800-2000

• Increasing efficiencies in converting final energy to energy services– Ranges between a factor

of 5 for transportation and 600 for lighting



• UK 1800-2000

• Lower prices of energyservices– Ranges between a factor

of 10 for heating and 70 for lighting



Energy Services 2005

• Energy services cannot be expressed in common units

• Transport– 13 km/day/per capita

– 1 ton 20 km/day/per capita

• Industry– 9 ton/year/per capita (steel +

fertilizers + constructionmaterials + plastics …

• Buldings– Heating/cooling to 20m2/per capita

• Useful energy – minimizes distortions among

different energy service categories, as it most closely measures the actual energy service provided.

Energy and Economics

Energy Management


Per capita energy use

kW/capita GJ/capita

Region 1990 2008 1990 2008

USA 10.2 10.0 320.5 314.0

EU-27 4.6 4.7 144.9 147.0

Middle East 2.2 4.0 69.9 125.2

China 1.0 2.1 31.8 67.0

Latin America

1.3 1.6 40.6 51.9

Africa 0.8 0.9 25.5 28.1

India 0.5 0.7 15.9 22.6

Others* 2.9 2.7 90.8 85.9

The World 2.2 2.4 69.9 76.6

Energy Management


What are the links between Energy and Economics? (Smil)

• There is a very high correlation between the rate of energyuse and the level of economic performance – During the last century the Gross World Economic Product (GWP) has

grown almost at the exact same rate (a sixteenfold increase) that the global comercial Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES).

– TPES per capita increased from 14 GJ to 60 GJ;

– High correlation between per capita averages of GDP (PPP adjusted) and TPES (for 63 countries) for the year 2000

– GJ/capita varies by a factor > 20

– High correlation also for a single country in time

Portugal

Energy Management



• But…

– Identical rates of economic development in different countries are supported by different TPES (total primary energy supply)

Energy Management



• Energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP):

– A measure of the efficiency of a country in using energy

– Which (low or high) values correspond to environmental andeconomic advantages?

– EI for the World decreased from 3.3 kWh/US$2012 in 1900 to 1.8 kWh kWh/US$2012 in 2010

Brito & Sousa (2016)

KW

h/U

S$2

01

2

Energy Management



• Energy intensity in time for countries:

– EI changes with development stage

– EI rises during early stages of industrialization, its peak issharp and short, and then declines as mature economies use inputs more efficiently

Energy Management



• Energy intensity for different countries in 1999:

– Most countries have EI between 5 and 13 MJ/$ PPP

– EI does not depend on the GDP/capita (e.g., India andAustralia have similar EI)

Energy Management



• Factors that control EI:

– Degree of energy self-sufficiency

– Composition on primary energy supply

– Differences in industrial structure

– Country size

– Climate

Energy Management



• Factors that control EI:

– Degree of energy self-sufficiency

– Composition on primary energy supply

– Differences in industrial structure

– Country size

– Climate

• Problems with EI:

– It is misleading if it counts only with commercial formsof energy – animate labor and biomass were the mostimportant forms of energy for most of humankind untilmiddle of the 20th century

– Treatment of Primary Electricity (e.g. Sweden vs. Denmark) – the method of partial substitution will inflateall large-scale producers of electricity

Energy Management


Links Energy-Economy-Environment

Environment

Economy

De-growth

Smart growth

BAU

Energy Management


Links Energy-Economy-Environment

• What will the economy in the future look like?

More self-reliant local economiesand ways of life

Global Economydependent onrenewable energies

Similar to the present but bigger

Models will help us understand theimpact of energy supply & technological innovations & policymeasures on the environment andthe economy?

Environment

Economy

Smart growth

BAU

De-growth

Energy Management


Issues in modeling energy-economy interactions

1. Trade-offs for people between environmentalquality ( with the use of energy) and income( with the use of energy)

– Is GDP enough?

Energy Management




– GDP: There are important factors for the quality of lifesuch as inequality in the society, environmental qualityand unemployment rate that are related with GDP butthat are not controlled only by GDP (http://www.beyond-gdp.eu/)

Energy Management




1 Norway 0.9442 Australia 0.9353 Switzerland 0.9304 Denmark 0.9235 Netherlands 0.9226 Germany 0.9166 Ireland 0.9168 United States 0.9159 Canada 0.9139 New Zealand 0.913

178 Guinea-Bissau 0.420179 Mali 0.419180 Mozambique 0.416181 Sierra Leone 0.413182 Guinea 0.411183 Burkina Faso 0.402184 Burundi 0.400185 Chad 0.392186 Eritrea 0.391187 Central African Republic 0.350188 Niger 0.348

Energy Management



Energy Management


Utility functions: a review

• Utility functions specify the hapiness U of a person or a population as a function of consumedgoods X1, X2, …:

• Examples:

• Issues:

• Indiference curves (substitutability betweengoods)

1 2 ....b cU aX X=

1 2 ....U a bX cX= + + +

( )1 2min , ,....U aX bX=

Cobb-Douglas Utility Function

Linear Utility Function

Leontief Utility Function

1max ( ,..., ) . .n i i

i

U U X X s t X P m= ≤∑

x1

x2

U(x1,x2) = x1x2;

Energy Management



2. How much can energy be replaced by other productive factors?

Examples?

Energy Management


Energy Management


Production Functions: a review

• Production functions specify the output Q of aneconomy as a function of inputs X1, X2, …:

• Examples:

• Issues:

• What are the relevant production factors (K, L, E, M, T, ….)

• How much are they substitutable?

1 2( , ,...)Q f X X=

1 2 ....b cQ aX X=

1 2 ....Q a bX cX= + + +

( )1 2min , ,....Q aX bX=

Cobb-Douglas Production Function

Linear Production Function

Leontief Production Function

Energy Management



2. How much can energy be replaced by otherproductive factors?

– Production functions that have energy as a productionfactor, e.g., LINEX (Ayres):

+ = − + −

exp ( ) 2 ( ) ( ) 1L U L

Q AU a t a t b tK U

Energy Management



3. How much are different forms of energyreplaceable by each other?

– Transport is the most problematic use

– Possibility of replacing oil liquids in internal combustionengines by more efficiency, other fossil (coal-to-liquids, tar sands, oil shale) or renewables (ethanol, biodiesel)

Electric cars (driving range; Recharge time, 4 to 8 hours, battery cost, bulk & weight)

Hydrogen cars (hydrogeninfrastructure and cost)

Energy Management


4. What is the energy that really matters (primary, final, useful, productive or useful work)?

– During the twentieth century the quantity of final energy taken from one unit of primary energy has doubled or even tripled

– The energy that is more intimated related with productivity is the productive energy but this is also the most difficult one to quantify

– What about the energy used for non-productive activities?


Energy Management


Energy Economy Interactions: useful work accounting

Definition of uses.

5 categories of use:High Temperature HeatHigh Temperature Heat

Medium Temperature HeatMedium Temperature Heat

Low Temperature HeatLow Temperature Heat

HeatHeat

LightLight

Mechanical Drive

Mechanical Drive

Muscle Work

Muscle Work

Other electric uses

Other electric uses

Energy Management



5. Investment in renewable energies and energyefficiency technologies

– Depends on the price of fossil fuels;

the power of the sun to enrich our lives as we move away from our

crippling dependence on foreign oil.” Jimmy Carter, 1979

Energy Management



5. Investment in renewable energies and energyefficiency technologies

– Controls conversion efficiencies between primary, final and useful energy;

– Controls price of renewable energies;

Energy Management



6. Oil Price

– Depends on demand vs. supply

– Depends on speculation in financial markets;

– Controls behavior of energy firms (e.g., investments in new oil fields)

– The amount of reserves

Energy Management



7. Energy game changers such as accidents (Japan, 2010)

OVER 70% OF JAPANESE AGAINST

NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS AFTER

FUKUSHIMA TRAGEDY

Energy Management


City ON – an energy-economy model

• Energy (electricity) is the onlyproduction factor

• Electricity has both a productive(industry and servicesconsumption) and non-productive (residential andmunicipal consumption) role

• Services and industry produceadded-value to the economy as a whole

Energy Management



• The central planner splitsincome between building powerplants, technologydevelopment, resources(constant prices) andconsumption

• Households have an utility function that depends on pollution generated by the electricity production sector and useful consumption

• Transformation between final and useful consumption depends on efficiency

• A central planner has to keeppeople happy (high usefulconsumption + low pollution)

Energy Management



• Power plants can be renewable and non-renewable.

• Non-renewable power plants pollute & Renewable plantsdepend on wind, sun and wateravailability

• Characterizationof power plantsand technology development (& investment) were realistic

Energy Management



• This model was used byBiodroid to develop a serious game to EDP

• It was applied to Portugal with some adjustments to forecast optimal electricityproduction & GDP evolution– Supply should have a more

relevant role for renewablesdue to environmentalimpacts.

Energy Management



• Improvements??

Energy Management


Energy Wars – an energy-economy model

• Introduce more production factors (labor, capital andtechnology)

• Introduce energy scarcity to simulate dependence ofeconomic growth on energy

• Introduce more types of energy (at least oil & renewableelectricity) to simulate whether the economy can make a smooth transition between fossils and renewables

• Introduce mechanisms that are relevant for the oil priceformation (speculation, decisions on investments by energyfirms, decisions of oil consumption by non-energy firms andhouseholds)

• There is no central planner to make decisions, i.e., households, the energy sector and the non-energy sector have internal dynamics

• A set of 3 models: a macroeconomic model, and 2 agent-based models for energy firms and for financial markets

Documents

Energy and Environment - ULisboa · Energy and Environment Tânia Sousa Tiago Domingos MARETEC –Marine, Environment and Technology Centre ... SOLAR RADIAÇÃO TÉRMICA Quando a