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Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Innovative tool for Energy Demand forecasting
and management of the Electrical Load System on
Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Athanasios Grammatikopoulos Ioannis Panapakidis
Mechanical Engineer
MSc in Energy
ΑΜ: 107751
Electrical Engineer & Computer Engineer
PhD
ΑΜ: 109263
Member of Standing Committee of Energy
TEE/TKM
Member of Standing Committee of Energy
TEE/TKM
Mob: +306942011797 Mob: +306977060253
E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
Global energy consumption projection increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035
Electrical energy industry continuously converges towards a competitive
framework, replacing the traditional monopolistic landscape
The liberalization of the electricity market brought the disaggregation of
production, transport and distribution of EE. It is the foundation for competitiveness
between power production companies and suppliers
Smart Grid → Coordination of necessities and capabilities of producers, system
management operators and final consumers
The coordination of the energy system aims at these optimal function, minimizing
the cost and environmental impact and maximizing flexibility, stability and reliability
Characteristics of modern environment of the Electricity market
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
The Core of energy forecasting and management load tool
Load Forecasting and management
Tool
STOP - DAMAGE
LARGE PRODUCTION
UNITS
EFFICIENT PROGRAMMING
ELECTRICAL ENERGY PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE
ENERGY SERVICE
COMPANIES (ESCOs)
FUEL PRICES– OPERATIONAL
UNIT MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT
DESIGN OF THE MARKET -
IMPORT RES
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
-high potentiality for energy savings- Energy performance of buildings
The energy performance of buildings is a key focus area of the current
scientific and legislation framework of the European Union.
According to technical reports, there is a considerably high potential for
energy savings in heating, cooling and lighting in public buildings.
The Directive 2012/27/EU established a common framework of
measures for the promotion of energy efficiency within the EU.
The EPBD provides a first step to access the energy performance of
buildings and propose effective measures.
A proper demand pattern analysis is needed for:
To identify the best practices related to energy efficiency.
To establish benchmarking procedures for a variety of building types.
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
1. Energy load forecasting through Artificial Intelligence
Computational Tool with ANN (Artificial neural networks) in MatLAB
environment
Accurate energy load forecasting bring benefits to efficient planning
integration of production units in the system, improve the safety of the
energy system and risk management of power companies.
Accurate estimation of power energy load and energy prices are essential
objective for the mechanisms of decision-making in the light of the
growing needs of Electrical energy system operation
Analysis levels: National System, Distribution MV, Final consumer
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
INNOVATIVE TOOL OF LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
15
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Lo
ad
(G
W)
Hours
Peak Demand - High generated cost of Kwh Peak Demand - High
generated cost of Kwh
Low Demand- low generated cost of kWh
Low Demand- low generated cost of kWh Load curve of the Greek system on
15/05/2012
2. Demand Response
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
INNOVATIVE TOOL OF LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Load Data collection and processing
Definition of electricity market and energy mixture
Design of dynamic pricing (tariffs ) in correspondence with load profiles
Profitability = Sale - Purchase - Network Charges
INNOVATIVE TOOL OF ENERGY LOAD FORECASTING - "OPERATIONAL PILLARS "
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
INNOVATIVE TOOL OF ENERGY LOAD FORECASTING - “SMART GRID"
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Power energy companies (public and private)
Electrical energy suppliers (Retailers)
Energy Service Companies (ESCO's)
Management of transmission and distribution network
Decision makers of energy policy
Tool Features
User-friendly, high-configurable, flexible
Consume small amount of computational resources
Easily integrated in Companies portfolio
Can be Used by...
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
-Ύπαρξη αγοράς-
Crucial due to liberalization and deregulation of
energy markets
N.3855 / 2010 → Greek legislation harmonized with
the Directive 2006/32 / EC “Energy efficiency in end-
users and energy services"
EU Directive 2009/72/EC aims to set up joint
regulations for country members on the production,
transport and distribution of gas and electricity. The
goal is a competitive, secure and environmentally
sustainable electricity market
Retail market development with the integration of
Smart Meters. The corresponding legislation refers to
Directives 2004/22 / EC and 2006/32 / EC
ENERGY MARKET
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Extroversion
Versatile tool with compatible use and commercial applicability in Greece and abroad
Territory Benefits
Programming optimization of use of domestic fuels and renewable energy that can lead to
the reduction of polluting emissions, increase reliability and network security
Dispersed Energy resources Management topically in cities and regions - A region can be
driven in Energy independence toward a Smart Grid
Data Exploitation - Optimal sales tariff of electrical energy - Price Saving for Private
consumer
Dynamic tariffs - Changing consumer behavior through cutting peak loads and load shift
during periods of low demand - Economic benefits for the producers and suppliers
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
Environmental Benefits
Planning optimization for the use of domestic fuels and
renewable energy that can lead to emissions reduction ,
increase reliability and network security
Assessment of energy efficiency measures
Electrical load data analysis that provides information for
the emissions per Building and Activity. The data can be
used by national and EU bodies.
Create a portfolio for emissions of public buildings in
order to analyze and reduce
WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS?
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
-Ύπαρξη αγοράς-
INNOVATION AND CONTRIBUTION
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Efficient powerful tool, towards the acknowledgement of the impact of values, such as Brent Oil Price, Heating Oil Price and the Power System Load
A new Computer tool in order to perform energy demand load forecasting depending on the requirements of the market
Can be used for day-to-day optimal decision on the economic and secure operation of the power system offering an extra adaptability according to the input information and targeted values
Electricity Production in the interconnected system - Hellenic Transmission System Operator S.A., Greece
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia
A computational tool that leads Energy Companies to profitability into the
Liberalized market
Reduce Operating costs
Efficiency Optimization
Forecasting Energy Demand
Energy Demand forecasting and management of the Electrical Load System on Smart Grid Environment for Energy Efficiency
Entrepreneurial Conference, 27, 28 and May 31, 2013, Thessaloniki
Technical Chamber of Greece / Department of Central Macedonia