Energy Markets in Transition - CERI · 1. Global Demand Economic growth in major consuming regions: Europe?, US, China Future demand growth 2. Global Supply High levels of inventories

Canadian Energy Research Institute

Generation Energy Workshop Energy Markets in Transition

Allan Fogwill President amp CEOJuly 2017

Relevant bull Independent bull Objectivewwwcerica

Relevant bull Independent bull Objectivewwwcerica2

Current Sponsors

Supporters

In-kind supporters


Agenda

1 Overview of Market Forces

2 Oil Markets

3 Gas Markets

4 Electricity Markets

5 Transition to a Lower Carbon Energy System


1 Increased energy consumption for servicesbull Plug loadbull Industrial use bull Transportation demand

2 Social Acceptance of energy infrastructurebull Global phenomenon

3 Aboriginal titlebull Another layer of government

4 Environmental policies and regulationsbull Increased costbull Increased complexity of new construction and operations

5 Increasing costsbull New options are more expensive than traditional ones ndash unconventional oil and gas ndash

renewable energy technologies and CCS

6 Affordability

Overview of Market Forces

Prices are going up for the end consumer Energy providers

facing a more complex operating environment


Canadian Economy Annualized GDP by Industry or Sector(as of August 2016)

Source Statistics Canada

At a Glancehellip

bull Good producing sectors amount to 30 of total GDP service-producing ndash 70

bull Real estate and rental and leasing - largest segment of Canadas economy

bull Manufacturing is the second largest component at 105

bull The oil and gas sector has long been a significant contributor to Canadarsquos economy accounting for 8 of GDP07

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MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES AND ENTERPRISES

ARTS ENTERTAINMENT AND RECREATION

AGRICULTURE FORESTRY FISHING AND HUNTING

OTHER SERVICES (EXCEPT PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION)

ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICES

UTILITIES

ADMINISTRATIVE AND SUPPORT WASTE hellip

INFORMATION AND CULTURAL INDUSTRIES

TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING

EDUCATIONAL SERVICES

PROFESSIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SERVICES

RETAIL TRADE

WHOLESALE TRADE

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

CONSTRUCTION

HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

FINANCE AND INSURANCE

MINING QUARRYING AND OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION

MANUFACTURING

REAL ESTATE AND RENTAL AND LEASING


What Does Canada Export


At a Glancehellip

bull Goods exports amount to 30 of GDP (service exports ~5 of GDP)

bull The third largest category of goods exports is Energy Products (oil natural gas and other) at 14 of total exports a decline of 10 from 2014 prior to oil price collapse

bull The United States still accounts for the vast majority of Canadian exports at 75 share

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SPECIAL TRANSACTIONS TRADE

OTHER BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENTS

METAL ORES AND NON-METALLIC MINERALS

AIRCRAFT AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT AND PARTS

ELECTRONIC AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT AND PARTS

FARM FISHING AND INTERMEDIATE FOOD PRODUCTS

BASIC AND INDUSTRIAL CHEMICAL PLASTIC AND RUBBER PRODUCTS

INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY EQUIPMENT AND PARTS

FORESTRY PRODUCTS AND BUILDING AND PACKAGING MATERIALS

METAL AND NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS

ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS

MOTOR VEHICLES AND PARTS


Oil Market


Oil Proved Reserves by Country(billion barrels and of total at end-2015)

Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016

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Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq RussianFederation

Kuwait United ArabEmirates

(bln barrels)

96 (1654 billion barrels) of Canadian reserves are in the oil sands

World Oil Proved Reserves - 16976 Billion barrels (at end of 2015)80 are state-owned or controlled


Oil Markets

Crude Demand

bull Climate Change Policies

bull Transportation Demand

bull IMO Regulations on Sulphur

Reduction

bull Refining Capacity

bull Geopolitics

bull US Trade Policies

Crude Supply

bull Suppressed Upstream

Investment

bull Crude Inventories

bull Production Costs

bull OPEC Production

bull Market Access

bull Technological Innovation


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What does this mean for Canada

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Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude

Oil producers and service companies will be active in Canada for the foreseeable

future


Oil Sands Challenges Costs and GHGs

High Costs and GHG Emissions

UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

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Oil Sands Emissions amp 100 MtCO2 Cap

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Steam-solvent Cogen (SOFC) Scenario Pure Solvent Scenario

Steam DCSG Based Scenario Steam SOFC Based Scenario

Steam-Solvent (FTB wo DCSG) Scenario 100 MtCO2 Cap

Total Direct Emissions with CH4 Policy

100 MtCO2eq Cap


Factors Affecting Canadian Oil

1 Global Demand

Economic growth in major consuming regions Europe US China

Future demand growth

2 Global Supply

High levels of inventories (short term)

Delayed investments

Geopolitical Issues Middle East South America Russia

3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices

5 Climate Change Policies and Emissions


Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


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(Bcfpd)

World Gas Production- 342 Billion cubic feet per day (at end of 2015)

Canada is the 5th largest gas producer in the world


Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855

Total Remaining Marketable Gas Resources in Canada = 1230 Tcf (at end of 2015)


Canadian Natural Gas Supply and Demand

Source CERI NEB

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mm

cfd

Pipeline Exports LNG Exports Supply Demand


Source EIA

US Shale Gas Supply (Bcfpd)


Factors Affecting Canadian Natural Gas

1 Declining production volumes driven by lower demand for exports in the US Emerging supply sources and inter-basin gas-on-gas competition

2 Western Canadian export volumes to Ontario and Quebec have declined competing with US exports out of Marcellus and Utica New TransCanada service

3 Domestic demand is providing upside relief to market driven by industrial demand (oil sands petrochemicals and power generation) Electrification

4 Declining Atlantic Canadian Supply

5 Low natural gas prices

6 LNG facilities


Asia-Pacific LNG Demand and SupplyLNG Export Potential to the Pacific Basin

Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA

bull Western Canadian-sourced gas evolving into a regional market

bull Western LNG not cost competitive with current Asia Pacific market

bull Eastern Canadian markets likely to be sourced almost completely by US shale gas

bull Atlantic Canadian LNG highly uncertain due to risk valuation of supply availability in Europe

bull Natural gas prices will remain modest over the medium term


Electricity Market


bull In 2014 global electricity supply was 24000 TWh

bull 66 of the electricity was produced by combusting fossil fuels (mainly coal)

bull Industrial sector remains as the largest consumer of electricity

World electricity generation by fuel type

World electricity final consumption by sectorSource IEA Electricity Information 2016

World Electricity Supply and Demand


bull In 2014 net Canadian electricity supply was 637 TWh

bull In 2014 58 of the electricity was supplied by hydroelectric generators


bull Since 1990s electricity intensity of the economy (electricityGDP) has decreased by about 30

bull Electricity consumption per capita has remained relatively unchanged

Canadian electricity generation by fuel type Canadian electricity final consumption by sector

Source IEA Electricity Information 2016

Canadian Electricity Supply and Demand


Electricity Share of the Residential Sector Energy Mix in Canadian Provinces 2014

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GHG Emissions Intensity of Electricity Generation

Mix of Canadian Provinces 2014

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Electricity Market in Canada


Factors Affecting Canadian Electricity

1 Increased demand for cleaner electricity grids - electrification

2 Evolving technologies ndash renewables storage CCS

3 Distributed Generation

4 Evolving business model for distribution companies bull Rate structuresbull Operating challengesbull Islanding or by-pass

5 Regional grid interoperability

6 Interprovincial and international Trade


Electricity Demand Electrified Sectors

x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times


Growth in Electricity Demand


GHG Emissions relative to 2005 Benchmark

In 2030 In 2050

Atlantic Canada 7 13

Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16

British Columbia 9 16

Target - 2030 ndash 30 below benchmark- 2050 ndash 80 below benchmark


Challenges associated with electrification

1 Retail price increase beyond inflation from 25 to 75

2 Insufficient effort to meet GHG goals

3 Large land use footprint

4 Unknown effects on principle economic drivers ndash industry and freight transport

5 Stranded assets and reduced tax revenues (gasoline taxes NG Dx)

6 Non-economic decision makingbull Coal + CCS = $ 180tonnebull Wind + CCGT = $200tonne


Transition to a cleaner energy system

1 Challenges are economic not technicalbull Technologies exist to clean and green our systems Are we willing to pay

for thembull How do we transition the work force

2 Cost to move toward low carbon or zero carbon electricity costs in the range of $200tonne to $500tonne bull How do we reconcile the costs in the electricity system with the $30 to

$50 per tonne charges in the oil and gas systems

3 Electrification will mean at least a tripling of the land use for electricity grids bull How do we get social licence for that build outbull Can Canadians accept cleaner oil and gas for the medium term

4 Energy system governance is brokenbull How do we overcome the politics of advocacy Trust National Interest



Thank you for your time

wwwcerica


ceri_canada

Upcoming studiesldquoEconomic Potential of Onshore Oil and Gas in New Brunswick and Nova Scotiardquo RELEASEDldquoEconomic and Environmental Assessment of Canadian Oil and Gas exports to the USrdquoldquoAn Economic Assessment of Electricity Generation Optionsrdquo

Allan Fogwillafogwillcerica

allan_Fogwill5872257605


Current Sponsors

Supporters

In-kind supporters


Agenda


2 Oil Markets

3 Gas Markets










6 Affordability







At a Glancehellip





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UTILITIES






RETAIL TRADE

WHOLESALE TRADE


CONSTRUCTION




MANUFACTURING





At a Glancehellip




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ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS



Oil Market




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Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



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2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

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(Mt

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100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

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186 176 158

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161

54 5146

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250

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400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

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42

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6165

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21 34 8 147 30 41

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780 790

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(kg

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x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Agenda


2 Oil Markets

3 Gas Markets










6 Affordability







At a Glancehellip





07

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25

30

44

52

53

54

58

65

68

68

72

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00 25 50 75 100 125 150






UTILITIES






RETAIL TRADE

WHOLESALE TRADE


CONSTRUCTION




MANUFACTURING





At a Glancehellip




08

20

33

41

52

61

63

64

79

115

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00 50 100 150 200











ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS



Oil Market




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(bln barrels)




Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



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2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

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(kg

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

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21 34 8 147 30 41

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(kg

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x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada











6 Affordability







At a Glancehellip





07

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54

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65

68

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UTILITIES






RETAIL TRADE

WHOLESALE TRADE


CONSTRUCTION




MANUFACTURING





At a Glancehellip




08

20

33

41

52

61

63

64

79

115

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178

00 50 100 150 200











ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS



Oil Market




3009

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60 60 58

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(bln barrels)




Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



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2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

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mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada







At a Glancehellip





07

16

19

22

24

25

30

44

52

53

54

58

65

68

68

72

79

105

131

00 25 50 75 100 125 150






UTILITIES






RETAIL TRADE

WHOLESALE TRADE


CONSTRUCTION




MANUFACTURING





At a Glancehellip




08

20

33

41

52

61

63

64

79

115

142

144

178

00 50 100 150 200











ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS



Oil Market




3009

2666

17221578

1431

1024 1015 978

177

157

101

9384

60 60 58

00

20

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00

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1500

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(bln barrels)




Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



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4500

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5500

6000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

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du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada







At a Glancehellip




08

20

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ENERGY PRODUCTS

CONSUMER GOODS



Oil Market




3009

2666

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Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



0

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2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

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ctio

n E

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(kg

CO

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bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Oil Market




3009

2666

17221578

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(bln barrels)




Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



0

200

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1000

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1400

1600

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20

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4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada







3009

2666

17221578

1431

1024 1015 978

177

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20

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100

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140

160

180

200

00

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500



(bln barrels)




Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

20

09

20

10

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4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Oil Markets

Crude Demand




Reduction


bull Geopolitics


Crude Supply


Investment




bull Market Access



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

20

09

20

10

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

(000 bpd)


Conventional Crude

Oil Sands Crude


future




UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada







UK

Canada Dilbit

Canada SCO

Brazil Marlim

Nigeria Bonny

LightVenezuela

US Shale

Norway

US Non Shale

Russian ESPO

Iraq Basrah Light

Iran

Saudi Arabia

California Heavy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80

Cru

de

Pro

du

ctio

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

CO

2e

bb

l)




40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(Mt

CO

2e

q

Yr)





100 MtCO2eq Cap



1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






1 Global Demand



2 Global Supply


Delayed investments


3 Market Access

4 Oil Prices



Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Natural Gas Market


Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Natural Gas Market


742

555

186 176 158

220

161

54 5146

00

50

100

150

200

250

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

(Bcfpd)




Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Natural Gas Market

Source NEB

Ontario 1

Quebec 7

Maritimes 1

Frontiers 223

Conventional 68

Tight Gas 512

CBM 48

Shale Gas 371

WCSB 855




Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






Source CERI NEB

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

mm

cfd



Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Source EIA









6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada











6 LNG facilities



Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






Source CERI IEA



Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






Source CERI IEA







Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada





Electricity Market



















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada















9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






9 913

20

2834

42

54

6165

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Ele

ctri

city

sh

are



21 34 8 147 30 41

300

700

780 790

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


Ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

em

issi

on

s in

ten

sity

(kg

CO

2eq

MW

h)












x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada














x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






x 15 times

x 25 times

x 18 times





In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada








In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada






In 2030 In 2050


Quebec 9 35

Ontario 14 31

Manitoba 11 24

Saskatchewan 8 16

Alberta 6 16






















wwwcerica


ceri_canada























wwwcerica


ceri_canada















wwwcerica


ceri_canada







wwwcerica


ceri_canada




Documents

Energy Markets in Transition - CERI · 1. Global Demand Economic growth in major consuming regions: Europe?, US, China Future demand growth 2. Global Supply High levels of inventories