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Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change. Tejal Kanitkar Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies TISS, Mumbai with modifications/additions by D.Raghunandan Delhi Science Forum/ All India Peoples Science Network. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change
Tejal KanitkarCentre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies
TISS, Mumbai
with modifications/additions by
D.RaghunandanDelhi Science Forum/
All India Peoples Science Network
Paper presented at and incorporating recommendations of
AIPSN Workshop on “Energy Mix for India 2035”
Dec 2012
Work done in collaboration with Prabir Purkayastha (DSF) & T.Jayaraman (TISS)
Outline
• Rights based approach to development• Defining the right to energy• The energy-emissions linkage• Carbon budgets – entitlements and actual
realizable carbon space • Energy within constraints of costs,
emissions, and resources – Energy Model
Right to Energy If energy is a pre-requisite for human development
– not just economic development – while planning future development, one should also plan for some minimum energy per capita commensurate with human well-being
This per capita energy can of course be aggregated for each country
How to meet this minimum energy requirement subject to emission constraints is the key question for future energy and emissions trajectory
Development Indicators – Context for India
Countries (2007)
Per Capita GNI at PPP
($)
Per Capita Energy
Consumption (kgoe)
Per Capita Electricity
Consumption (kWhr)
Per Capita Installed Capacity
(kW/person)
Per Capita
Emissions (tCO2)
HDI (2010)
India 2,870 529 452 0.13 1.4 0.52
China 5,640 1,484 2,332 0.48 5 0.66
South Africa
9,660 2,784 4,944 0.85 9 0.59
UK 36,270 3,465 6,123 1.31 8.8 0.85
US 46,740 7,759 13,638 3.24 19 0.90
World 10,203 1,821 2,875 0.61 (2006) 4.6 -
India has a large development deficit that it needs to address
India: aggregate energy trends
1985 2010
Population (million) 765.1 1150
Energy use (EJ) 10.8 28
Electricity use (Billion units) 157 811
Share of energy imports 8% ~30%
% of hh un-electrified Not known 46
Renewable power installed capacity (excl large hydro)
0 17,297 MW
Development vs. Constraints
Value added as %
of GDP
Employment (% of total)
Agri. 16% 56%Ind. 27% 19%
Services 57% 25%
• Employment in agri. disproportionate to contribution to GDP
• need planned growth in industry; growth of rural enterprises
• significant infrastructure growth planned in next two decades
• Concerns: environment, climate change constraint on emissions constraint on fossil fuels
• Also Constraints on: • availability and use of land and water• availability of mineral resources domestically • renewable energy potential• availability of finance
Understanding energy-economy-environment linkages crucial!
Energy as part of right to development
• development measured not just in GDP growth• necessary to consider other parameters to
capture development e.g. life expectancy, infant mortality, etc.
• Unfortunately, Energy Access not one of the 8 MDGs --- insufficient effort invested by civil society in this, now even Rio+20 come and gone!
HDI vs. Energy Consumption
Life Expectancy vs. Energy Consumption
Infant Mortality vs. Energy Consumption
Targets for Energy Use 2035 – (1)• India should target levels of human development
comparable to mid-level developed countries• Portugal, the best amongst these – 4860 kWh/person• Informally also Govt projections• given current levels of technology, in BAU mode, this
is perhaps reasonable – may change in the future• Effect of late development
• High carbon energy – low cost• Low carbon energy – high cost
• Need carbon space to achieve energy equity
Global Emissions
To limit temp. rise to 2 deg. C with 50% probability 658 GtC from 1850 to 2050 of which 332 GtC already emitted (50%)
What is left? 326 GtC
For 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C 207 GtC is left
Climate Change Mitigation and the Global Carbon Budget
• The world has only 326 GtC more
• Ambitious climate change deal a necessity
• Equity should be at the focal point of any new deal that involves all countries
• No acceptable schema yet
• Distribution of remaining carbon budget (cumulative emissions) increasing or cutting according to ”fair shares” of per capita entitlements (TISS-DSF is one such Schema
Global Carbon Budget Schema
• modeling shows 2 deg C achievable
• A1 sharp cuts (no negative emissions, and allowing for 1970 cut-off year for historical emissions: huge concession)
• interestingly single framework so dear to US, but still incorporating equity and CBDR&RC
• large DCs (China, India, Brazil, SA etc 20 nations) must peak and then reduce on differential time-table
• India peaks around 2035-40; 70-80 GtC budget
Entitlements for A1 and non-A1 countries
Entitle-ments –
1850-2050 (GtC)
Contribution to stock – 1850-2009
(GtC)
Future entitlements – 2010-2050
(GtC)Annex-I 133 245 -112
Non-Annex-I 525 86 438Total 658 331 326
based on 2000 population
• These are entitlements not actual space• Negative emissions not possible• Even if Annex-I emit zero between 2010-2050, Non-Annex-I are left with 326 GtC (112 GtC less than what they are owed)
Dividing the actual carbon space
1850 Basis, Non-
LUCF
Future entitlements
– 2010-2050 (GtC)
Potential actual share- 2010-2050 (TISS-DSF model)
Potential actual share- 2010-2050
(Dividing future total budget
based on 2000 population)
Annex-I -112 50 65Non-
Annex-I 438 271 261
Total 326 321 326
Actual Space for India & Other Countries
1850 basis, non-LUCF
Future entitlements – 2010-2050 (GtC)
Potential actual share (2010-2050) [GtC] – TISS-DSF
model
Potential actual share 2010-2050 (based on 2000
population)USA -65 18 16EU -35 14 26RussianFed. -11 6 7Japan 0 4 7Australia -2 2 0Canada -4 2 3OtherAnnexI 4 3 7China 103 87 65India 103 68 55Brazil 16 7 10SouthAfrica 1 2 3Indonesia 20 10 10Mexico 7 2 7SouthKorea 2 2 3OtherEE 23 18 20RotW 163 75 88Total 326 321 326
Electricity Use
Needed to achieve Human Development
Electricity Supply
CoalGas
DieselNuclearHydro
BiomassWind
Solar PVSolar Thermal
Resource Constraints
Cost Constraints
Emissions Constraints
Fuel Mix, Cost Implications, Various Scenarios can be studied
Example: Power Sector• Current (2008) per capita electricity use in India
is ~490 kWh/person/year• Low levels of access, low reliability of supply• Target: Portugal - 4,860 kWh/year; 4500
kWh/year used in model
Power Sector Baseline Snapshot - 2008
Projections for the Future
Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh/person)
2008 490Energy vs. GDP per Capita regression @ 8%
GDP Growth 1684
IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 2598
IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth 3219
MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth 3210
MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth 4042Benchmarked against Energy Consumption per
Capita in Portugal 4500
Energy Requirements• Right to development Energy requirements
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
2009 2020 2035
kWh
Total Electricity Generation
USA-Total India-Total
13686 kWh/person13686 kWh/person
13686 kWh/person
638 kWh/person
1450 kWh/person
4500 kWh/person
Coal
Natural GasNuclear
Hydro
Diesel Renewables
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Average Plant Capacity Factors India USA
Hydro 38% 37%
Coal 70% 72%
Diesel 16% 9% Petroleum
Gas 58% 25%
Nuclear 47% 91%
Wind 19% 26%
SHP 25% 76% Geothermal
Biomass 49% 62%
Solar PV 15% 18%
CSP 20% 18%
MSW 31% 37%
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Hydro
DieselRenewables
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Constraints on Supply - IndiaCoal 600,000
Nuclear 63,000
Gas 100,000
Large Hydro 150,000
Diesel 40,000
Wind 100,000 ? - 800,000?
SHP 15,000
CSP --
Solar PV --
Biomass 50,000
MSW 30,000
Cost Constraints
Sources: TERI Energy Roadmap, NCAER-CGE
2010
(Rs./kWh)2030
(Rs./kWh)
Annual Growth/Red
uction in tariff
Coal 2.1 3.4 1.13%Nuclear 5.1 4.2 -0.45%
Gas 2.5 4.35 1.39%Biomass 4 3.54 -0.30%Hydro 2.5 3.25 0.66%Gasp 3 4.85 1.21%Diesel 7 15.4 2.00%Wind 5.5 4.5 -0.49%CSP 13 9.6 -1.5%SPV 9 6 -2%
Power Plants – Existing vs. New Stock
Scenarios for 4 Carbon Budgets USA India
Total Budget (GtC) - 2010-2050
Budget for Power Sector (GtC)
Total Budget (GtC) - 2010-2050
Budget for Power Sector (GtC)
Scenario - I: No restrictions on emissions for India and USA between 2010 and 2035 -- -- -- --
Scenario -II: Equitable Allocation of Carbon Space within the global budget 18 6 68 24Scenario-III: Annex-I reduce emissions according to their Copenhagen Pledges, Non-Annex-I have to bridge the gap 35 12 30 11Scenario - IV: Budget for USA proposed by National Academy of Sciences, USA; Highly curtailed Budget for Non-Annex-I 54 19 21 7
Scenario –I for India
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
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20
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20
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20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
Ele
ctri
city
Ge
ne
rate
d (
kW
h)
Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Elec
tric
ity
Gen
erat
ed (k
Wh)
Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
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20
20
21
20
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20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
Ele
ctr
icit
y G
en
era
ted
(k
Wh
)
Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
Ele
ctr
icit
y G
en
era
ted
(k
Wh
)
Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV
0
1E+12
2E+12
3E+12
4E+12
5E+12
6E+12
7E+12
8E+12
9E+12
1E+13
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
Ele
ctr
icit
y G
en
era
ted
(k
Wh
)
Coal Hydro Diesel Gas Nuclear Wind SHP Biomass CSP SolarPV
Impacts on Cost of Electricity
India
Carbon Budget for the Power Sector (35% of total between 2010-
2035) [GtC]
Cost of Energy in 2035 ($/kWh) -@
PPP
Cost of Energy in
2035 ($/kWh) - @ Rs.45/$
Scenario - I -- 0.509 0.181
Scenario -II 24 0.668 0.237
Scenario-III 11 0.978 0.348
Scenario - IV 7 1.063 0.378
Financial Burden on India vs. USATotal Cost of Electricity
Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion US$]
Additional Burden As Compared to Scenario-I
India (@ Market Prices)
Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion
USD] Additional Burden As
Compared to Scenario-IScenario – I 13 --Scenario –II 16 3Scenario-III 28 15Scenario – IV 33 20
India (@ PPP)
Total Cost of Generation between (2010-2035) [Trillion
USD] Additional Burden As
Compared to Scenario-IScenario - I 38 -- Scenario -II 46 8Scenario-III 79 41
Scenario - IV 92 54
How much Energy do we actually need?
• projections such as these usually account for energy efficiencies, some demand management
• but in a sense, even if these are not BAU in energy terms, they are possibly BAU in terms of development pathways and paradigms
• low-carbon development and tackling climate change in a sustained and sustainable manner will call for radical shifts in the things we do, the way we do things, in lifestyles --- with serious impact on energy use
Reducing Energy Requirement
improve end-use efficiencies (300 Mtoe by 2031) advanced coal, gas based generation tech’s.
(122Mtoe) increase renewables, nuclear (72 Mtoe) increase efficiencies in transport (190 Mtoe)
700 Mtoe reduction possible
power generation capacity could be reduced by 128 GW ( 2001 cap.)
“National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007
Energy Efficiencies in Transport
• energy use projected to increase >10 times to 460 Mtoe by 2031
• most reduction through normal tech. upgradation
• road-to-rail modal shift for freight and passenger
• private to public transport shift
“National Energy Map for India: technology vision 2030”: TERI & Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007
Evolving Mexico offer!
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – High Coal Scenario
Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total
Total Energy Supplied (%)
66% 12% 2% 3% 11% 6% 100%
Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)
2006 365 61 91 334 182 3040
Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)
70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 327 59 43 15 100 80 625
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
485 78 63 31 176 123 956
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Low Nuclear Scenario
Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total
Total Energy Supplied (%)
45% 15% 2% 3% 14% 21% 100%
Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)
1368 456 61 91 426 638 3040
Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)
70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 74 43 15 128 280 764
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
289 102 63 31 234 445 1163
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – Low Coal, High Renewables, Medium Nuclear Scenario
Coal N Gas Diesel Nuc. Hyd. Ren. Total
Total Energy Supplied (%)
45% 14% 2% 7% 13% 19% 100%
Total Energy Supplied (billion kWh)
1368 426 61 213 395 578 3040
Ave. Cap. Factors (Assumed)
70% 0.7 0.16 0.7 0.38 0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW) 223 69 43 35 119 254 743
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l for add’l Cap. no decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
289 94 63 78 215 405 1144
Energy target in Low Carbon Pathway• if India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of
an equitable global deal… • ---and adopts low-C development pathways
Dream Projections for 2035 (with improvements in conversion efficiency)
2010 2035
Population (in billions) 1.15 1.52
Primary Energy (EJ) 28.4 ~87
Primary Energy per capita (GJ) 24.7 ~57
Electricity Use (in billion units) 811 3040
Electricity Use per capita (units) 705 2000
• reduce coal use from 60-66% to 40%?
Towards a Low Carbon Pathway• promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not
just as “trickle down” supposition• demand: “electricity for all” and “equitable access to
modern cooking energy”• so some sectors of economy and sections of society
consume less, so others can get more• address urbanization: rapid urbanization is much
spoken about, but why is it valorized? Some data suggests 40% more emissions!
• 50% rural pop. even in 2050!! Should we not build on this?
• new production-distribution patterns
Thank you