Energy: Sources, Supply and Security

Rayola DougherSenior Economic Advisor

dougherr@api.org

A Picture of the World at NightA Picture of the World at Night

3Energy is the engine of our economic growth. More energy means more jobs, higher incomes, greater economic growth.

Global Economic and Energy Consumption Growth(regional shares of world’s incremental growth between 2007‐2035)

GDP Energy Consumption

44

GDP Energy Consumption

14 5

1 2 4

10

4

2

5

8 62

5

493 2

4

7 7GDP (trillion 2005 $)

3GDP (trillion 2005 $)2007:  $632035:  $154

Energy (Quads Btu)

3

2007:  4952035:  739

Source:  EIA, IEO 2010

Three Priorities for Fueling Our Future

1. Consume less energy

2. Diversify supply sources

3. Invest more in new technologies3. Invest more in new technologies

5

Energy Consumption per Dollar of Gross Domestic Product in 2007(Btu/Year 2005 U. S. Dollar at Market Exchange Rates)

How much energy a country uses per dollar of gy y peconomic output is a function of a lot of variables, such as wealth, weather, industry, etc.

Source:  EIA

Change In Energy Intensity, 1980 to 2007(Measured as the Change in Energy Consumption [Btus] per 2005 U. S. Dollar of GDP)

The U.S. is reducing its energy intensity by moving toward a more service-oriented

i t d th h ffi i i tsociety and through efficiency improvements.

Source:  EIA

Projected Changes in Indexes of GDP, Population, Energy and Carbon Intensity 2008 2035Energy and Carbon Intensity, 2008-2035(Index 2008 = 1.0)

Source: EIA, AEO 2010

Structural and Efficiency Effects on Future Energy ConsumptionQuadrillion Btu

Source:  EIA, AEO 2010

10

Future Global Energy Demand (The world will require 49 percent more energy in 2035 than in 2007)

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010

Global Oil Trade Challenges(growth in supply and demand between 2007‐2035)

Demand Supply

3 44.8

Demand Supply

0 2

2.9

0.1 3.4

11‐1.6

15.5

‐2.54 6

1.5

0.2

2.6

0.1

1.4

0.8‐1.9

4.6

25.5

0Projected Oil Supply Increase (mb/d)OPEC:  13Non‐OPEC: 13

‐0.1

Non OPEC:  13

Source:  EIA, IEO 2010

(millions of barrels per day)

Global Natural Gas Trade Challenges(growth in supply and demand between 2007‐2035)

Demand Supply

6 4

Demand Supply

2 6

4.2

1.4 0.4

15 8

6.4

2.7‐2.2

9 81.9

2.6

7.2

15.88.9

3.7

17

3.1 0.3

9.8

4.0 5.3

1.7

Natural Gas (Tcf)2007 109 T f

2.7

2007:  109 Tcf2035:  156 Tcf

Source:  EIA, IEO 2010

(trillions cubic feet)

Invest in Energy Sources and Technology

Transition to Modern Energy/Technology

19Source: Exxon Mobil

Policy Recommendations

Thank You

For more information visitFor more information, visit

www api orgwww.api.org

www.energytomorrow.orgwww.energytomorrow.org

21