Energy transition in South and South-East Asia

Energy transition in South and South-East Asia

Denise Cavard

Energy transition is the process whereby the volume and proportion of commercial energy increases so as to replace traditional fuels as the main energy source. In South and South-East Asia the extent to which this transition has taken place varies within and between countries. In general, in the urban areas, the process is more advanced than in rural areas. It is also more advanced in the larger towns than the smaller ones and more advanced within higher income groups. In rural areas industry is a large consumer of traditional energy and many rural peoples earn their livelihoods as suppliers of traditional energy to industry. For both economic and social reasons the transition process has been slower in rural households than in urban households. This must change as for much of the rural areas of South and South-East Asia, increasing population and increasing energy demand are creating pressures on the biomass which cannot be sustained.

From the Himalayas to the equatorial islands of Indonesia the natural conditions, the available resources, the peoples and the levels of development vary greatly. Nevertheless, the countries which make up this region have in common a number of characteristics which are important for the analysis of energy supplies.'

The common characteristics are: they are populated countries having 26% of the world's population, ie 1264 million inhabitants in 1985; a very large majority of this population is still rural from 93% in Nepal to 62% in Malaysia and the Philippines (Table 1); and to a large degree their energy supplies come from traditional fuels such as wood, charcoal and animal and vegetable wastes. The combined effect of these three characteristics places a heavy burden on the biomass. At present the pressure on the biomass is already extreme in some areas and it may become insupportable if energy transition does not come about quickly enough.

Under energy transition the volume and propor-

Denise Cavard is a staff member at the Institute of Energy Economics and Policy (CNRS), University of Social Sci- ences, BP 47X, 38040 Grenoble, Cedex, France.

This article is translated from a part of the report Energie Inter- narionnle 1988-1989. edited by the Institute of Energy Economics and Policy, CNRS, France.

tion of commercial types of energy increase so as to finally eclipse traditional fuels as the main energy source. The process of replacement is complex and can include, together or in succession, the intro- duction of commercial energy into new sectors or new uses for commercial energy or the replacement of traditional energy by commercial energy in existing uses.

It is thus perfectly possible for the energy transition to begin without there being any actual energy substitution in established uses; this then produces an increase in commercial energy consumption without any decrease in traditional energy consumption.

To throw some light on the transition process, we will examine the current role of traditional energy sources in the region, the resulting pressure on biomass resources, and the factors which advance or limit the energy transition process.

'According to the ENERDATA nomenclature, South Asia includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh. Bhutan. India. Maldives. Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. South-West Asia includes Burma, Brunei, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Macao, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. The total population of these countries was 1405 million in 1985.

We have excluded the recently industrialized countries of Asia from our study. We have used eight big countries to illustrate the argument: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Thailand, Phi l ip pines, Indonesia and Malaysia. In 1985 these countries had 1264 million inhabitants, ie 90% of the region's population.

216 0165-0203/89/030216-11$03.00 0 1989 Butterworth 8c Co (Publishers) Ltd

Energy transition in South and South-East Asia: D. Cavard

transport sector in the recent past, for example, on Thai railways up to 1978. Table 1. Population of South and South-East Asia: 1985 situation

and prospects for 2000.

1985 2000 Population density

Population Proportion (habitants/ Population (millions) of rural (%) km*) (millions)

India 765 75 233 994 Pakistan 96 71 119 138 Bangladesh 101 82 70 1 141 Nepal 17 93 121 24 Thailand 52 82 101 66 Philippines 55 61 183 76 Indonesia 162 75 84' 212 Malaysia 16 62 48 21

Total 1264 1672

Whole of South and South- East Asia 1405

Share of the eight countries in world population ( Y o ) 26.3 27.6

Source: World Bank, World Development Report, various years. "Including Java, 486.

Who consumes traditional energy sources? Traditional energy means all the fuels provided by the biomass: wood, charcoal, sawmill offcuts, by-products of the agro-food industry, agricultural residues and animal wastes. Most of those sources are used untreated, but a part is transformed into charcoal or brickettes. A start is also being made on transforming part of the biomass into more diverse fuels, such as biogas or alcohol. As yet the latter account for only a small part of the energy consumption of Asian countries.

It is households, and especially rural households, which consume most of the traditional energy (Table 2); smaller quantities go to industry. Other sectors consume little, although wood has been used in the

Main characteristics of the consumption of transitional energy by households The domestic sector is the biggest consumer of traditional energy and, at the same time, it is extremely dependent on it owing to the weak penetration of commercial energy into domestic applications.

In the domestic sector traditional energy is used mainly for cooking food, a use with which the heating of water (for personal hygiene or washing clothes, for drinks) is very often included. However, wood is also used to heat dwellings in regions which have a cold season, especially in elevated regions such as the 'hills' of Nepal or of India and Pakistan, or even in lower regions during the cooler or rainy season. In the 'hill' region of Nepal [l], for example, where the altitude ranges from 1600-5000 m and produces cold nights and a cold season, energy consumption by households is two-thirds higher than energy consumption in the Terai region (Himalayan foothills) where buildings need not be heated. Yet the 'hills' are the region of Nepal where traditional fuel is in the shortest supply.

When the local people can gather wood in their own vicinity they use dry branches and twigs, or if wood is scarce they sometimes use dry leaves and brushwood. The standing trees which are cut down are usually cut down for commercial timber, often des- tined for the towns. There is thus a paradox (Table 3): in Bangladesh and Pakistan urban dwellers consume more wood than rural dwellers; in both these countries the woodfuel shortage is so great that rural people make do with waste materials, especially farm residues in Bangladesh. Wood is so scarce in some places in Bangladesh that jute is planted solely as a source of fuel. Animal wastes (dried dung) are an important resource for both townspeople and villagers

Table 2. Distribution of the final consumption of traditional energy by sector (O/e).

Rural Urban households households Agriculture Industry Others Total

India 1979 85.8 12.7 - Pakistan 1975 82.9 -

Nepal 1980 95.8 3.1 NA Thailand 1983 57.9 4.1

4.3 Indonesia 1982 82.0 8.0 -

Bangladesh 1982 78.8 9.1 8.9

Philippines 1981 64.2 -

- 1.5 100.0 14.5 2.6 100.0 3.2 - 100.0 0.7 0.4 100.0

38.0" - 100.0 30.7 0.8 100.0

5.0 5.0 100.0

Source: India: TERl and National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Pakistan: World Bank, 1980,Government of Pakistan; Bangladesh: World Bank, 1982; Nepal: Water and Energy Commission; Thailand: World Bank, 1985; Philippines: Ministry of Energy - Energy Sectoral Survey Series, 1984, and Rural Energy Needs Survey, 1985; Indonesia: estimates by SofratomeiGovernment of Indonesia Project 1984, UNDPNorld Bank, 1987. "In industrial consumption, family handicrafts consumes 5.3% of traditional energy.

NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM August 1989 217

Energy transition in South and South-East Asia: D . Cavard

in India and Pakistan, while in Bangladesh only rural dwellers use animal wastes in any great amount.

Lastly, charcoal is a very important household fuel in South-East Asia. In Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia it is used by both village and town dwellers, while in Indonesia only the urban population uses it in large quantities.

But, while households generally remain very dependent on traditional energy, they are beginning to consume commercial energy as well. However, the differences are great between categories of household and between countries.

The heavy use of traditional energy in the domestic sector, particularly in rural areas, is the reason why this is usually the only sector studied. However, it is also useful to examine the impact of traditional energy consumption on rural industry, because there is an economic and social issue involved - the survival or the disappearance of a productive activity in the countryside.

Consumption of traditional energy by industry Traditional fuels are used in South and South-East Asia by rural industries, mostly traditional ones, and by industries engaged in the processing of farm products. There are many different activities; they include family handicrafts such as the dyeing of cloth, preparation of palm oil, pre-cooking of rice, and a whole range of food preparations. In Malaysia, for example, there are 17 different methods of conserv- ing and processing fish and shellfish; these methods make combined use of smoking, cooking, grinding and drying. There are also many fruit- and vegetable- based preparations such as sauces, fried and dried slices, and jams, as well as cereal-based (flakes, pastas) or meat-based preparations (sauces and con- diments, dried or smoked meats) which require fuel to prepare.

At the village level there are such activities as brew- ing, baking, dairies, restaurants, blacksmiths, pot- ters, tile and brick works, and the manufacture of lime. There are also larger scale activities connected with the processing of food and farm products, such as preparation of tobacco, copra and rubber, drying of tea, dehusking and processing of rice and activities connected with the manufacture of building materials.

With respect to the share of industry in the consumption of biomass, the countries of the region divide into two separate groups: Nepal, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India, where the industry share is small; and Pakistan, Philippines and Thailand, where it is quite large.

It may be thought that the very low industry figures in Table 3 are not accurate, but it is difficult to obtain

Table 3. Structure of the final consumption of traditional energy by households, by fuel type (%).

Vegetable Animal Wood' Charcoal wastes wastes Total

India 1979 Rural 51.4 0.1 18.7 29.8 100.0 Urban 78.2 0.5 5.1 16.2 100.0

Pakistan 1979

Bangladesh 1981 Rural 75.0 - 6.0 19.0 1w.n

Urban 63.0 - 37.0 - m . 0 Rural 9.3 - 74.0 16.7 100.0

Nepal 1980 97.0 - 3.0 100.0 Thailand 1983

Rural 57.1 42.9 0 - 100.0 Urban 5.0 95.0 - - 100.0

Rural 61.7 27.3 11.0 - 100.0

Rural1981 100.0 0 - - 100.0 Urban1984 58.0 42.0 - - 1on.o

Philippines 1983

Indonesia

Sources: India: TERI on basis of NCAER; Pakistan: Barnard and Kristoferson; Bangladesh: Atomic Energy Commission, 1985; Nepal: AIT; Thailand: National Energy Administration (NEA), 1986. World Bank, 1985; Philippines: Ministry of Energy, 1985; Indonesia: 1981 rural survey by Energy Development Interna- tionaVDGP, 1984 urban - survey by Energy Development Interna- tional/DJK. "Including round wood, branches and twigs.

realistic data. It should be noted that in every new field study on rural industry energy consumption, the levels of consumption have been re-evaluated sharply upwards [ll]. The reason that the quantities of biomass consumed are not known accurately, is due to both the economic and social status of those activities,2 to the method of energy supply and to the nature of the energy consumed. With respect to the type of energy consumed, there is a fundamental difference between industries which consume by-products of their own activity and those which obtain various fuels from outside.

In South and South-East Asia the first group con- sists mainly of sugar and rice mills and processors of jute and coconut. At present the wastes of these industries are the only ones listed in energy balance- sheets. They are the only ones whose use does not have

*FA0 proposes the following classification of rural industries with respect to their socio-economic status: small-scale family handicrafts activities; medium-scale village enterprises; and large-scale rural industries. Little is known about the consumption by family handicrafts industries and medium-scale village enterprises, for the former activity is carried on in the home and its consumption is mixed in with the household consumption (even though its deter- minants are different), and the latter activity, usually a small businessman with a few employees, or a cooperative or an extended family, often engaging in seasonal work, eludes adminis- trative control and frequently falls within the informal sector, as indeed do family handicrafts activities. Only the last category - large-scale enterprises -can be easily studied. See Thun [ 101.

218 NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM August 1989


little technology and much labour is a necessity, at least in the medium term.

The consumption of traditional fuels by industry and households represents a very large part of the biomass used as a source of energy. Taken together the eight countries in the region consume about 150 Mtoe in 1985 (Table 6). In the last 15 years the quantities of traditional energy consumed have increased by about 50%, raising the problem of the capacity of the biomass to satisfy the need.

harmful consequences for natural resources and yet avoids expenditure on commercial energy. The other industries use either wood or waste^.^ The smallest ones may obtain their supplies by direct gathering, while the larger ones either buy fuels directly from sawmills, plantations or rice mills, or go through intermediaries. The diversity of the situation (type of supply, type of fuel) makes it difficult to evaluate energy consumption levels.

It is generally held that the traditional rural industries consume large quantities of energy per unit of p r ~ d u c t , ~ and that therefore energy costs are a large item in production costs, at least for some of them.5 The recommendation is then either for energy saving or substitution with conventional energy sources - all measures which require modernization and new investment. Changes of this kind, which are desirable from the energy standpoint, cannot be carried through without altering the social and economic status of these industrial activities. Change will no doubt come about gradually, but there is unlikely to be sufficient investment capacity to introduce these technical changes rapidly. Moreover, if they were brought in too rapidly they would have a disastrous impact on rural incomes and jobs, for these small or medium-sized enterprises employ hundreds of thousands of people and also provide additional income, job diversification and mobility for rural peoples.

In Indonesia, for example, 90000 brick, tile and lime works employ some 300000 persons, many of them small farmers without irrigated land who are seeking extra income. In Thailand there are hundreds of enterprises producing lime, and thousands of tile, brick and charcoal works, all providing employment to rural peoples.

A sharp and immediate improvement in farm incomes cannot be expected in those countries with large rural populations and heavy rural population density. Furthermore, until modern industry and ser- vices can absorb a significant part of the surplus rural population, the continuation of small and medium- sized rural industrial and handicrafts activities using

'On Java in 1986, for example, the tile, brick and lime works used 6 million m3 of wood, 3 million m3 of rice husks and 2 million m3 of other farm residues. See UNDP-World Bank [ll]. 4An example of energy content expressed in kg of wood/kg of pro- duct: precooking of rice, 2-5; bread, 1-2; smoked fish, 0.2-1.6; bricks, 0.3-1.5 in village enterprises and 0.1-0.5 in rural industries; tiles, 0.2-0.5 in rural industries and 0.5-1.5 in village enterprises; lime, 2-3 in village enterprises and 0.6 in rural industries; drying of rubber, 0.8-2; tobacco, 5-12; coffee, 0.75-2; cocoa, 4-6; potteries, 0.4-1; ceramics, 1-2. 'Proportion of the energy cost in the total cost (%): bread, 10-30; smoked fish, 40-70; potteries, 15-30; lime, 50-75; rubber, 3; copra, 2; tea, 5; cocoa, 1; tobacco, 5 .

Excessive pressure on biomass resources Forested areas have declined by large amounts in all the countries of the region (Table 4) in recent decades [3]. The disappearance of the forests, as has been made clear by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) [4], is due more to the clearing of land for agriculture, industrial logging and the effects of big hydraulic works than to the gathering of wood for energy purposes. Nevertheless, and especially in the densely populated regions, dis- appearing forests deprive inhabitants of a traditional source of energy in their vicinity.

The assessment of deforestation alone is not sufficient to give a full understanding of the actual decline of the resource, for traditional fuel supplies depend only partly on the forest, either because the forest is far away or because fuel gathering is officially regulated. Today the wood consumed is more likely to come from gardens, farming land, or trees planted in combined cropping systems (as is the case on Java in Indonesia). The importance of fuel gathered from the sides of highways, roads and rivers in India (Table 5 ) illustrates the scale of the wood shortage in over- populated areas, peri-urban zones and for landless rural dwellers.

To know the methods of supply is to understand what a resource means for the local inhabitants; the wood must be within their reach, ie gatherable with the means available to them, or sold at prices they can afford. Wood cut or gathered in distant locations is an item of regional or interregional trade; it is sold by preference to urban households or to large industrial enterprises and is therefore no longer available to local rural households.

Deforestation data given at the national level have the disadvantage of describing the situations in 'average' terms, concealing actual situations of pressure or of ready supply. What the data do not therefore always show is that South and South-East Asia are a mosaic of areas of abundant resources and areas of deficit resources.

R. de Montalembert had made a classification of situations for all the developing countries [8] and for



Table 4. Average annual deforestation in tropical Asia in 1976-80 and projections for 1981-85 (hax ld/year).

Broadleaf forests Coniferous forests Bamboo forests

1976-80 1981 -85 1976-80 1981 -85 1976-80 1981-85

India 132 192 11 11 4 4 Pakistan 1 1 6 6 Bangladesh 8 8 Nepal 80 80 4 4 Thailand 325 244 Philippines 100 90 1 1 Indonesia 550 600 Malaysia 230 255

- - - - - -

- - 7 7 - -

- -

- - - - - - - -

Source: FAO/UNDP - Foresf Resources of Tropical Asia, FAO. Rome, 1981 (tropical forest assessment project).

Table 5. Source of fuelwood supply for heating (YO).

India 1979 Rural Urban Rural Indonesia: West Java 19%3

Forest 26.5 4.7 Forest 5.0 Gardens, farms 27.4 4.9 Gardens, farms" 72.0 Neighbourhood 3.8 0.6 Roadside 28.9 3.1 Total wood gathered 77.0

Wood bought 13.0 Total wood gathered 86.6 13.3 Wood bought 13.4 86.7 Multiple sources 10.0

Rural Thailand 1980 Forest Gardens, farms Neighbourhood

Total wood gathered Wood bought

Wood for Wood charcoal 48.0 15.0 35.4 50.0 14.4 5.0

97.8 70.0 2.2 30.0

Rural Bangladesh 1980 Forest 12.9 Gardens, farms 81.6 Fallow land 5.5

Sources: India: Leach, 1987; Bangladesh: AIT; Indonesia: Soesastro, 1983; Thailand: 1980 NEA Survey. Nore: For Indonesia the figures represent the percentage of households obtaining supplies in this way; for the other countries percentages of quantities. 'In Indonesia most of the wood gathered on farms comes from combined cropping: food production with fuelwood production.

the particular region considered in this study [7] on the basis of current analyses and forecasts of consumer needs in relation to supply possibilities. The areas have thus been placed in four categories, from the most unfavourable to the most satisfactory situation. The Appendix presents this classification and the definitions used for the classification.

As can be seen in the Appendix, the most seriously threatened areas are:

The areas of fuelwood shortage may proliferate in the future if consumption continues at the present rate. The solution is to obtain a considerable increase in the resource level, which appears difficult in view of the population growth rate and the shortageAof land, or to secure a sizeable and rapid reduction of the consumption of traditional energy by increasing the effi- ciency of its use or by turning to other energy sources. For much of the area under study turning to other energy sources in energy transition appears to be the most viable solution.

An examination of the current uses of the biomass, the obstacles to change and the main factors deter- mining the evolution of consumption of traditional energy will give a better understanding of the prospects for this energy transition.

Factors governing energy transition The overall share of traditional energy sources in total energy consumption has been declining in all the

The mountain areas where the renewal of the fuelwood resource is more difficult for reasons of climate or soil and where the inhabitants' needs, for example, for heating, are larger than elsewhere. These regions are moreover fairly heavily populated. The most densely populated areas, where the fuelwood resource has been worked for a long time and has therefore declined. These areas include virtually all of the large agricultural plains.



200 Table 6. Proportion of traditional energy in energy consumption in South and South-East Asia.

Nepal/ -

India 1970 1980 1985

Pakistan 1972 1980 1985

1972 1980 1985

Bangladesh

Nepal 1970 1980 1985

Thai I and 1970 1980 1985

Philippines 1970 1980 1985

Indonesia 1970 1980 1985

Malaysia 1970 1980 1985

Total primary Traditional consumption (toex 10’)

124 377 184 342 228 189

12 526 19 807 27 434

9 015 12 054 14 677

2 562 3 836 3 836

1 1748 21 834 27 194

14 228 20 184 20 864

32 563 53 851 64 512

6 032 10 004 19 119

energy (toex Id)

57 422 73 700 76 688

5 244 6 783 8 256

7 707 9 148

10 548

2 443 3 169 3 564

6 447 8 990

11 689

5 783 7 430 7 788

21 242 26 540 29 510

1211 1 604 1838

Share in primary consumption (YO)

46.2 40.0 33.6

41.9 34.2 30.1

85.5 76.0 72.0

95.4 94.9 92.9

55.0 41.0 43.0

41 .O 36.8 37.3

65.2 49.3 45.7

20.1 16.0 9.6

Sources: All countries: Enerdata; India: TERI (for EEC), Pramod Deo; Pakistan: AIT- Energy Profiles, World Bank, 1980.

countries under study since 1970 (Table 6). The increase in Thailand and the Philippines since 1980 should be interpreted with caution because one cannot be confident of the quality of the data. The range of change is bound by two extreme situations:

Nepal, where traditional energy sources still account for more than 90% of total energy consumption; and Malaysia where the use of traditional energy sources has sunk below 10%.

However, the decline in the use of traditional energy must not be allowed to conceal another development - the growth in the quantities of traditional energy consumed, often by very large amounts: up 3 3 4 % in India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Indonesia; up 45-60% in Nepal, Malaysia and Pakistan; and up 31% in Thailand.

17+ &

Indonesia

c {Philippines

0 0 :;g / Malaysia .- 0.

0)

0) 0 * lo0l 75

501 25

Pakistan

- Bangladesh

O’ Ib 2‘0 ;o do 5b $0 A I30 do ’ Proportion of traditional

energy in the balance sheet(%)

Figure 1. Variation on per capita consumption of traditional energy related to the importance of traditional energy.

The first explanation which comes to mind for the increase is population growth. But population growth ought to have been offset by a decline in unit consumption, for energy transition in which the majority of the countries are engaged leads to a drop in the per capita consumption of traditional energy. In fact, as Figure 1 shows, the situation is more complicated: per capita consumption of traditional energy is sharply down in Nepal, Philippines and Malaysia, slightly down in Bangladesh and India, slightly up in Indonesia and Pakistan and sharply up in Thailand.

At the same time there are differences in the speed of the transition. This speed can be measured by the length of the arrow along the axis of the abscissa (Figure 1): the Philippines, which is fairly advanced in the transition process, has not moved more quickly in this latter period than Nepal, which is starting the transition; Bangladesh, at the beginning of the process, has moved quicker than the majority of the more transition-advanced countries, except for Indonesia.

One can conclude perhaps that energy transition can advance without any decline in the per capita consumption of traditional energy and that the direction of the evolution of the amounts of energy consumed is not directly related to the proportion of traditional energy consumed. The modalities of the transition differ according to the national context.

In order to understand what the factors are governing the consumption of traditional energy it is necessary to go back to the main users - households; because the factors influencing the degree of energy transition include: urban growth, income levels, social and cultural factors as well as availability and cost of fuels, cost of appliances, electrification, etc.

NATURAL RESOURCES FORUM August 1989 22 1


Table 7. Per capita consumption of traditional energy for urban and rural dwellers (koe/person/year).

Urban Rural

Share in Total Traditional total Total consumption energy consumption consumption

India 1979 113 53 47 105 Pakistan 1979 74 40 54 115 Bangladesh 1982 133 106 80 129 Nepal 1980 180 129 72 215 Thailand 1983 99 41 41 112

155 Indonesia 1982 137 40 29 197 Philippines 1983 - - -

Traditional energy 95

105 125 215 103 137 170

Share in total consumption 90 91 97

100 92

86 -

Sources: India 1979: TERI on the basis of NCAER Survey, 1979; Pakistan 1979: Leach, 1987; Bangladesh 1982: World Bank, 1982; Nepal 1980: Water and Energy Commission, 1980; Thailand 1983: World Bank, 1985; Philippines 1983: Ministry of Energy - Rural energy needs survey, 1985; Indonesia 1982: estimates by Sofratome, 1986, and national surveys.

Demand-side factors: urban growth and income levels Urban growth and income levels combine to alter the structure of energy consumption.

Urban growth. The influence of urban growth on the penetration of commercial energy is the easiest factor to perceive from the available studies and surveys. Table 7 shows the proportion and the quantity of traditional energy consumed per capita in town and in the countryside.

The great similarity of energy consumption pat- terns for rural dwellers in all the countries under study is immediately obvious. They all derive about 90% of their energy needs from traditional sources (almost 100% in Bangladesh and Nepal). The types of commercial energy which penetrate the rural sector are mainly paraffin, followed by electricity, whose share has been increasing. Gasoline and the other oil products provide a very small share. The urban situation is more differentiated and varies with the particular country. In the urban areas in Indonesia commercial energy has made the greatest inroads (69%). In India, Thailand and Pakistan energy consumption of urban dwellers is divided almost equally between commercial and traditional fuels, while in Bangladesh urban dwellers derive about 20% of their energy needs from commercial energy sources. In Indonesia paraffin is the commercial fuel most widely used by urban households; in India it is electricity and coal brickettes; in Malaysia, electricity; in Thailand, LPG and electricity; and in Bangladesh and Nepal, oil products.

Thus the transition is proceeding very slowly for the moment in rural areas, but is very advanced in the towns of most of the countries included in this study. Urban households, which consume a smaller proportion of traditional energy than rural households, also consume smaller quantities of traditional energy (Table 7). Although in Bangladesh urban dwellers

consume only 20% less traditional energy than rural dwellers, in all the other countries the difference is much larger. Urban consumption of traditional energy is approximately half that of the rural areas in Pakistan, Nepal, India and Thailand, and nearly one- quarter that of rural areas in Indonesia.

The above observation helps to give a picture of energy transition in urban areas. It is coming about in such a way that the consumption of traditional energy is less, both in proportion and in absolute quantities, as compared with that of rural dwellers.

Furthermore, the transition is accentuated by the size of the town: the larger the town, the greater the proportion of commercial energy consumed. In India the proportion of commercial energy consumed is 40% for towns with under 20 000 inhabitants but rises to 75% for towns with over 500000 inhabitants [9]. The same phenomenon is also found in Thailand: if only fuels used for cooking foods are taken into account, the proportion of commercial energy used for cooking is only about 10% in the smallest towns but about 45% in Bangkok [5]. Income levels. The information on income levels is incomplete and dissimilar. The distribution of energy consumption by urban and rural households in India, Pakistan and Indonesia, and of urban households according to size of town in Thailand, is shown in Figure 2. This distribution refers only to the cooking of foods, which is the main energy use of households (except for Pakistan, where it covers the whole of domestic energy consumption).6

The most general conclusion is that the proportion of traditional energy consumed for cooking (for all domestic uses) falls when income rises. However, the differences by income level are much smaller in the urban areas. In rural India the proportion of traditional energy consumed for cooking remains roughly

6For India and Pakistan see G . Leach [6].



140 Pakistan

v Urban Rural

250 Indonesia

200

c c E C

g 150 n n

c 5 0 100

0

0 .c

\ 0

e .-

0 r

\

0 Y y"

50

n " Urban Rural

a Modern energy 0 Traditional energy

120

100

80

60

40

20

n v Urban Rural

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 Bangkok Big towns Small towns

Figure 2. Wood and charcoal household consumption, by level of income, for two regions of Thailand

constant (98.7 to 95%) and the proportion of traditional energy in all domestic uses is at about 95%. In rural Pakistan the figure is around 90%; but in Indonesia the proportion of traditional energy used for cooking falls (from 95 to 79%) as income rises.

In the towns, increased income is associated with a very large drop in the proportion of traditional energy. In India it falls by half when income increases sixfold. In Indonesia, where little traditional energy is consumed in the towns, it first falls then rises and becomes larger for the high-income group than for the lowest. The reason for this is the emergence of a new cooking need (grills) among people with high incomes. In Thailand the transition in the cooking use is much more advanced in the capital than in small towns; but the income factor is important in towns of all sizes.

The evolution of the type of energy consumed over time confirms that the energy transition is real and important in the towns. LPG consumption increased by 14% in one year from 1984 to 1985 in Thai towns, and the consumption of paraffin rose in all income

groups between 1979 and 1984 in India, while LPG made a breakthrough in households with the highest incomes.

In the villages of India, the relative constancy of the proportion of traditional energy used by the different income levels is accompanied by a slight increase in total energy consumed when income rises. In Pakistan the picture is one of relative stability. In Indonesia both the quantity and the proportion of traditional energy decline. In the towns in all the countries under study the quantity of traditional energy consumed falls when income rises, except in Indonesia for the reasons noted above.

Thus it can be concluded that major energy transi- tions are taking place in urban areas and that the transition is beginning in rural areas in Indonesia and Pakistan, but not yet in India.

The example of urban households with high incomes in Indonesia gives a twist to the main factors affecting energy transition, which are urban development and higher incomes; other social and economic considerations such as tastes and eating habits must



be taken into account in order to explain the speed of the change or certain impediments to this change. For Table 8. Rural electrification (YO).

example, the simplest appliances work on paraffin

cook various kinds of bread which are traditional

Villages served Households served

64.0 44.0 16.5

and LPG and cannot easily be used to grill meat or

basic foods in several countries. Thailand 1984 64.0

India 1985

~ n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 8 4

The household energy supply factors The ability of households to choose between several kinds of energy depends not only on their purchasing power and tastes but also on the supply conditions, which depend on relative prices, the physical availability of the energy through supply networks, and the cost of the necessary appliances to use the energy.

Relative energy prices Relative prices favouring the commercial types of energy should encourage their substitution for traditional types of energy. Relative prices affect most of those who buy energy, ie primarily town dwellers. Leach [6] shows that in India and Pakistan the effec- tive retail price of electricity and gas sold to urban households has fallen sharply since 1970, while the price of wood in the towns has risen by 40% in India and by 20% in Pakistan. In those two countries and in Bangladesh paraffin has always been cheaper than wood in terms of useful energy content. Relative energy prices have therefore encouraged the urban domestic transition to this form of commercial energy.

In Indonesia paraffin has long been heavily sub- sidized in order to enable the poorest people to buy it. Its low price has resulted in its very widespread use for cooking (especially among urban dwellers) and lighting (especially among rural dwellers). Indonesia found itself in the paradoxical situation of an oil pro- ducer which had become a net importer of paraffin, with its budget severely strained by the cost of subsidies. The subsidies have been cut since 1980; they were only 12% in 1983-84. But faced with the shortage of biomass, on Java in particular, there was no alternative but to encourage new substitutions with LPG and electricity. A comparison of retail prices and the cost of useful energy by energy type in Indonesia in 1985 [2], shows that wood remains the cheapest form of energy, and charcoal the dearest. LPG is a little dearer than wood, nearly twice as cheap as paraffin and four times cheaper than charcoal. In view of the present structure of energy consumption in towns and its current trends, substitution in the paraffin-wood direction is unlikely. The relative price ratios favour the acceptance of LPG as the fuel of energy transition in urban areas and in the rural areas as well.

Philippines 1985 55.0 Malaysia 1985 71.0 Indonesia 1984 20.0 6.0

Sources: AIT, Energy Profiles, 1987; Thailand: NESDB, 1984.

In rural Thailand in 1985 the unit cost of useful energy from the various energy sources still operated in favour of wood and charcoal; but there are large variations in the prices of these fuels from place to place. The price of electricity seems competitive with these energy sources; on the other hand, paraffin is not competitive with wood, but it may be competitive with charcoal in some areas. LPG remains relatively expensive. Thus the relative prices in the rural areas of Thailand provide only a partial incentive for energy transition. Furthermore, the price of paraffin delivered to the villages is 20-3070 higher than in Bangkok, and the price of LPG 30-100% higher.

The availability of commercial energy A main reason why commercial energy does not gain acceptance among the low-income groups despite its favourable price is that regularly supplied points of sale are not found everywhere. Leach cites the case of the Indian town of Lucknow, where the poorest households do not use paraffin for cooking although they know that i t would cost them only 40% of what they pay for wood (the price of paraffin stoves is also very low). The unreliability of the supply and the queues waiting outside the local stores deter them from this course. Bangladesh provides another example: this country encourages the replacement of wood with LPG, but LPG is distributed only in Dacca and not yet in all districts even there.

Electricity supply poses a double problem: the problem of the cost of connection to users when a network exists and the problem of extension of the network. In South and South-East Asia the electricity supply networks are still too small, especially in rural areas, and few households are connected (Table 8), except in India and Malaysia.

The cost of appliances Even when households are connected to an electricity supply network the appliances which use such energy are often more expensive than the traditional devices using wood or charcoal; this is an obstacle, at least for



The decline of fuelwood resources in the region and the already precarious situation in certain areas will prevent the continuation of the present trends. However, the situation is far from uniform: in some countries the resource is less degraded and can regen- erate; in other less populated countries, the Philip- pines for example, improved use of the biomass will make it possible to reduce imports of commercial energy.

Can the threats be limited or removed by the policies established more than a decade ago to pro- mote reforestation, energy plantations, combined cropping, and improved appliances which save wood? The policies alone are unlikely to achieve this. More than ever before, the problems requiring solution call for an overall energy policy including inter alia a coherent energy pricing system in town and countryside. But, especially in the countryside, prices will not come into play until the supply networks are in place, and this is far from the situation at present.

It should be added that no measure confined to energy will have any real impact unless rural stand- ards of living improve. It is the poorest rural inhabitants of areas where the biomass is already impoverished who have the greatest difficulty in obtaining energy, for in the worst situation they must sell wood in town in order to secure a meagre income.

the poorest people. Paraffin stoves are usually not very expensive, but this is not true of gas stoves or electric appliances.

In India, for example, it was estimated in 1979 that the cost of an appliance for gas cooking presented 34% of the annual income of the poorest 30% of the population, 16% of the annual income of the next 43% of the population, and only 3% of the annual income of the richest people.

Thailand offers another example: in 1985 a charcoal bucket stove cost 20 baht, equal to the cost of 10-15 kg of charcoal; an improved charcoal stove cost 80 baht, a gas stove 300 baht, and a 15 kg bottle of gas with its valve 700 baht; an electric rice cooker cost 300-2500 baht depending on the model.

Thus the supply conditions of commercial fuels compete with the availability of traditional fuels to encourage or impede energy transition. Supplies are usually better in the towns; prices, controlled most of the time, are relatively favourable to paraffin or LPG as alternatives to wood; and the transition succeeds better with the spread of the market economy and higher incomes. But at the same time the situation of the poorest urban dwellers can deteriorate to the point where they depend on residual materials such as branches gathered from the side of public roads.

However, it must be remembered that a large majority of the population of all the countries under study lives in rural areas and that the rate of urban development is not very high. The pattern of rural consumption thus remains the dominant factor in explaining the high proportion of traditional energy in the energy balancesheet of these countries.

The impression that nothing is happening with respect to energy in the rural world and that rural situations are very similar throughout the region is nevertheless mistaken. It is in fact in the countryside where the pressures on the biomass are most sharply felt. There are also differences between areas, and the transition is coming about in different ways.

Conclusion South and South-East Asia have been undergoing an energy transition for more than two decades, and while the process is only beginning in some countries, it is well advanced in others. This transition is based primarily on the development of economic sectors which consume commercial energy (industry and transport) and on the still limited substitution of commercial energy in households and rural industry. The main foreseeable consequence of this is that the amount or wood and waste materials consumed will not decline over time, but quite the contrary will increase.

References Asian Institute of Technology, Fuelwood Strategies and Action Programs in Asia: Comparative Experience in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand, report of a CEC-AIT Work- shop, Bangkok, 17-22 December 1984, EEC, Brussels, 1984. R. J . de Lucia, Lower Oil Prices: Implications for Household Fuel Strategies, de Lucia and Associates, Cambridge, MA, 1986. FAO, Report on Natural Resources for Food and Agriculture in the Asia and Pacific Region, F A 0 En- vironment and Energy Paper No 7, FAO, Rome, 1986,

FAO, WIR, IBRD, UNDP, Leplan d’action forestier tropical, FAO, Rome, 1986. J . Girod, NEAICECIAIT Project on Energy Demand Analysis and Forecast in Thailand: Mission Report, IEJE, Grenoble, 1987,24 pp. G. Leach, ‘Household energy in South Asia’, Biomass,

M. R. de Montalembert, Fuelwood in Asia: an Identifi- cation of Critical Situations, expert meeting, 5-1 1 May 1981, ESCAP, Energy Resources Series, No 24, Bangkok. M. R. de Montalembert and J. Clement, Dis- ponibilities de bois de feu dans k s pays en developpe- ment, Etudes FAO, For&, No 42, FAO, Rome, 1983, 119 pp.

118 pp.

VOI 12, NO 3, pp 155-184.



9 TATA Energy Research Institute, TEDDY 1987, TERl Energy Data Directory and Yearbook, TERl , New Delhi, 1987.

10 R. A. Thun, Technical and economic aspects of using wood fuels in rural industries, FAO, Rome, 1986.

11 UNDP, World Bank, Energy Eficiencies Improve- ment in the Brick, Tile and Lime Industries in Java, Energy report management assistance program, UNDP; World Bank, Washington, 1987.

Appendix Classification of areas of South and South-East Asia by availability of fuelwood supplies

F A 0 has made a classification of the various regions of the world in terms of their fuelwood supplies. The following method was used for this purpose.

(i) Definition of zones which are homogeneous with respect to fuelwood supply and demand conditions and are fairly similar from the geographical standpoint.

(ii) Comparative balance sheet of realistic supply levels compatible with sustained production and minimum levels of need.

(iii) Classification of zones into standard categories. Four categories were adopted:

Situations of acuteshortage. Zones with very negative balance sheets where the level of fuelwood supplies is so obviously insufficient that even the overexploita- tion of the resources does not furnish the people with an adeqate supply. This results either in very difficult ecological conditions or in sustained resource over- exploitation owing to the high population densities. Crisis situation. Zones where the people are still able to satisfy their minimum fuelwood needs, but at the cost of overexploiting the existing resources which leads to the gradual destruction of the resources. Critical situations. Zones in which the supply still exceeded the demand in 1980, but which will be in a

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crisis situation in 2000 if the current trends continue (demographic growth and continuing dependence on fuelwood). Satisfactory situations. Zones which will still have an adequate supply in 2000, but where local shortages are possible.

By applying the above classification to South and South- East Asia, different situations can be identified as can the number of people affected.

Situation of acute shortage affecting 50 million people India: Western Himalayas Nepal: mountains Pakistan: northern mountains Many urban and peri-urban areas

Crisis situation affecting 550 miliion people India: Indus-Ganges plain and Southern India, ie the States of Andhra Pradesh, Gujurat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Northern Plains, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. Nepal: Terai Bangladesh Sri Lanka Thailand: central Indonesia: Java Pakistan: Baluchistan, Punjab, Sind Philippines: central Vietnam: coasts

Deficit situation affecting 270 million people Burma: southern India: Urisa, Madhya Pradesh Indonesia: North Sumatra, Sulawesi, Timor Philippines: Luzon Vietnam: except coasts

Satisfactory situation affecting 182 million pea@ Bhutan Burma: northern Laos Ma I a y s i a Papua New Guinea Parts of Indonesia Parts of Philippines Republic of Korea but with deficit around the towns

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Energy transition in South and South-East Asia