ENERGY TRANSITION ROADMAP TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE … · 2017-08-24 · Energy Transition Roadmap Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India by 2050 7 Ashish Gulagi [email protected]

ENERGY TRANSITION ROADMAP TOWARDS

100% RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR INDIA BY

2050

Ashish Gulagi, Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland

Neo-Carbon Energy 8th Researcher’s SeminarLappeenranta, January 23-24, 2017

Energy Transition Roadmap Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India by 2050Ashish Gulagi [email protected]

Agenda

MotivationMethodology and Data Results Summary

3 Energy Transition Roadmap Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India by 2050Ashish Gulagi [email protected]

Motivation• India is one of the fastest growing country in terms of

electricity consumption and economic developmentElectricity consumption grew at a CAGR of more than 7% from 2001-2015 Total electricity consumption in 2015 was higher by 151% of the total consumption in 2001GDP grew by 7.3% over the same period.

• High dependence on fossil fuel for electricity generation to satisfy the growing electricity demand

Coal dominates the generation system leading to alarmingly high levels air pollution in major citiesIncrease in imports of fossil fuels due to depleting domestic reservesSubsidies for fossil fuel of about ~40 bUSD/a

• The aim of the government to achieve 100% electrification with keeping in mind climate change agreements.

Coal60 %

Gas8 %

Diesel 0 %

Nuclear2 %

Hydro14 %

Renewable Energy16 %

Installed Capacities (end of 2016)

Source : CEA


Motivation• Radical transformation initiated in the energy sector after signing the

COP21 agreementTarget for installation of 175 GW of renewables by 2022 which includes 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of windLaunching of International Agency for Solar Policy and Applications, biggest

initiative for solar energy development in tropical countries with 121 member countries

• Huge potential for all renewable energy sources, particularly solarIndia lies in the sunniest region with 250-300 clear sunny days. Technical potential estimated is about 11380 GWAbout 585 GW of technical wind potential

• Rapid decrease in solar prices which can be seen from a recent lowest solar tariff of 49.4 USD/MWh.

• According to KPMG, electricity generation from solar power will find breakeven from imported coal in 2015 and domestic coal in 2019.

• Large scale deployment of renewables in the future would require various storage solutions

Small Hydro Power; 4

Wind Power; 29

Biomass/Cogeneration; 8

Waste to Energy; 0

Solar Power; 9

Renewables installed capacity (end of 2016 GW)

Source : CEA


Agenda



MethodologyKey Objectives

Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the region’s resources,• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and ten sub-regions of India,• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, • least cost energy supply for the given constraints.

LUT Energy model, key features• linear optimization model• hourly resolution• multi-node approach• flexibility and expandability • enables energy transition modeling

Input data• historical weather data for: solar irradiation,

wind speed and hydro precipitation• available sustainable resources for biomass and

geothermal energy• synthesized power load data• gas and water desalination demand• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants• efficiency of energy conversion processes• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources• nodes and interconnections configuration


MethodologyOverview• Energy transition pathway from 2015 fossil-based system to a 100% RE based power system by

2050Transition in 5-year time stepsNo new nuclear or fossil-based thermal power plants installed after 2015; An exception for gas-fired plants since theycan be shifted to renewable-based fuelsLeast cost RE power plant mix replaces phased out fossil power plantsEnergy system modelled to meet increasing electricity demand for each time step

• Research Objective: To find a least cost energy transition pathway for India and the demand forstorage technologies for this transition

Total Electricity Consumption(TWh)

2015 14122020 17192025 20952030 25652035 31702040 39402045 49392050 6220

Aggregated load profile for India for 2050 Estimated electricity consumption of India from 2015 to 2050


MethodologyFull system

Renewable energy sources• PV rooftop• PV ground-mounted• PV single-axis tracking • Wind onshore• Hydro run-of-river• Hydro dam• Geothermal energy• CSP• Waste-to-energy• Biogas• Biomass

Electricity transmission• node-internal AC transmission• interconnected by HVDC lines

Storage options• Batteries • Pumped hydro storage• Adiabatic compressed air storage• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas

• Water electrolysis• Methanation• CO2 from air• Gas storage

Energy Demand• Electricity• Non-energetic industrial gas• Water desalination


Scenarios assumptions• India is divided into 10 regions according to the

regional grids which are furthur subdivided and the sub-regions are interconnected by HVDC power lines.

• Key data

1.7 billion population in 20503.3 million km2

~5952 TWh electricity demand (2050)~196 b m3/a water desalination demand (2050)~844 TWh non-energetic industrial gas demand (2050)

• Scenarios

Country-wide: energy systems of the sub-regions are interconnectedIntegrated: power sector plus water desalination and non-energetic industrial gas


Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours

Data: Based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)

Region PV fixed-tilted FLH

PV single-axisFLH

CSP FLH

Wind FLH

India East 1535 1870 1683 1175

India Central East 1595 1995 4386 1495

India West 1624 1995 1910 2226

India Central West 1579 1950 1785 2137

India North 1878 2515 4397 2269

India North West 1633 2011 1968 1512

India Uttar Pradesh 1639 2100 4438 1626

India South 1536 1946 1597 2022

India Central South 1559 1937 4475 2261

India North East 1525 1808 1587 928

FLH computed on the basis of the 0.45 × 0.45spatially resolved data:

0%-10% best areas – 0.310%-20% best areas – 0.320%-30% best areas – 0.230%-40% best areas – 0.140%-50% best areas – 0.1


Scenarios assumptionsGeneration profile

Wind generation profile Aggregated feed-in profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.

PV generation profileAggregated feed-in profile computed using earlier presented weighed average rule.

Key insights• Almost constant solar resource all year around• In the monsoon months wind overcomes solar resource unavailability• Wind energy complements solar in period of low solar radiation


DataPower Plant Capacities – Technical and Financial Assumptions

Capex variation based on learning curves Least cost power plant capacities based on

CostEfficiency of generation and storagePower to energy ratio of storage Available resource

WACC is set to 7% for all years Fuel costs

47.3 €/MWhth for oil (~100 USD/bbl in 2020 and ~+2.1%/a)22.2 €/MWhth for gas (in 2020 and ~+3.0%/a) Variation in capex from 2015 – 2050 for all power plant components utilised by model.


Agenda



Results Levelised cost of electricity – Country-wide scenario

Key insights• In 2050, LCOE is 52 €/MWh, comprised mainly of cost of primary generation and storage technologies• Due to coal based generation and associated fuel and CO2 emission cost, LCOE increases till 2025,

however only due to CO2 emission cost• After 2025, share of renewables increases in the system and reduces the fuel and CO2 emission cost• In 2050, solar PV and batteries contribute mainly to LCOE


Results Levelised cost of electricity – Integrated scenario

Key insights• In 2050, LCOE is decreased by 14% in comparison to country-wide scenario due to decrease in

curtailment and storage• Same trend is also observed in LCOE for integrated scenario


Results Country-wide Scenario

Key insights• Electricity generation from renewables increases gradually to overcome the deficit created by phasing out of fossil

fuel power plants• Electricity generation from wind remains almost the same after 2035• Solar PV contributes 86% to the generated electricity in 2050• PHS is the cost effective storage option till 2020• After 2025 as influence of solar increases on the system, prosumer and system batteries are required• Gas storage is required after 2040 when the share of renewables crossses 80%

Electricity generation Storage output


Results Integrated Scenario

Electricity generation Storage output

Key insights• Same trend in the electricity generation and storage output can be observed in integrated scenario• Solar PV provide 8180 TWh of electricty and batteries provide 3145 TWh of output in 2050• Decrease in gas output in comparision to country-wide scenario• Hybrid PV-battery provides least cost combination for transition


Results CAPEX required for 5-year intervals

Country-wide scenario

Key insights• After 2040, CAPEX is mainly for solar PV installations, batteries and transmission lines in the country

wide scenario• In the integrated scenario, from 2040, CAPEX requirements are for solar PV installations, batteries,

transmission lines and PtG technologies. • High CAPEX in integrated scenario is due to additional installed capacities of renewables and storage

technologies

Integrated Scenario


ResultsRegional analysis – Integrated scenario - 2050

Key insights• Electricity generation from solar PV dominates all over the country• Self-comsumption plays a part in regions with high electricity prices• In the Western part of India, due to good wind conditions it plays a part in electricity generation in

periods of low solar irradiation• Batteries dominate the storage technologies to provide electricity.


Results Storage – 2050

Key insights• Increase in gas storage capacities in the integrated scenario due to non-energetic industrial SNG demand• Throughput of batteries is increased in the integrated scenario as consequence of decrease in gas for

electricity generation• Integration of sectors decreases the gas storage throughput as a consequence of non-energetic

industrial gas demand• Batteries and PHS are used on daily basis and gas provides seasonal storage requirements.

Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year

ScenarioGas Battery TES PHS A-

CAES Gas Battery TES PHS A-CAES Gas Battery TES PHS A-

CAES

[TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [-] [-] [-] [-] [-]

Country-wide 131.7 8.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 196.7 2596.0 73.2 12.5 0.0 1.5 314.3 140.2 283.1 41.9

Integrated 189.3 10.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 56.4 3145.3 119.5 9.7 0.0 0.3 309.4 166.7 219.4 9.5


Results Storage – State of Charge

Key insights• Charging of the batteries on daily basis and discharging in the late evening and night time• Gas storage is used as a seasonal storage, discharging in periods of low solar radiation.


Hourly Results Country-wide scenario - India West (summer week) - 2050

Key insights:• Energy mix is mainly based on PV and wind • Batteries shift PV based electricity in the afternoon and night• Solar resource is very stable and wind more fluctuating


Hourly Results Country-wide scenario - India West (monsoon week) - 2050

Key insights:• Energy mix is mainly based on PV, wind, hydro dams and biomass• Monsoon month shows reduced solar resource but increased wind• Batteries shift PV based electricity in the afternoon and night


Agenda

MotivationMethodology and DataResults Summary


Summary• India can reach 100% RE by 2050

LCOE for country-wide scenario will be 52 €/MWhIntegration of the power sector with desalination and non-energetic industrial demand reduces the cost of electricity and LCOE is 46 €/MWh

• Solar PV dominates the total installed capacities and electricity generation with wind and hydro complementing in period of low solar radiation

• Batteries are utilised from 2025 when share of renewables exceeds 50% and gas storage is utilised from 2040 when share of renewables exceeds 80%

• For the total electricity demand in 2050 for the country-wide and integrated scenarios, 46% and 40% comes from storage technologies, respectively

• After 2035, the battery output contributes approximately 14% to the total electricity demand, increasing to 42% by 2050 in the country-wide scenario

• Solar PV and batteries will form the backbone of a fully sustainable electricity based system in India

• Installed wind capacities are utilized in the period of low solar radiation and monsoon, when the wind conditions are excellent in some parts of India

• More investment in RE would enable India to achieve their climate change mitigation goals and zero carbon emissions

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openingsand the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University

of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

Thank you for your attention!

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openingsand the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University

of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

FURTHER INFORMATION

Supplementary data associated with this article can be found at:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313361115_The_Demand_for_Storage_Technologies_in_Energy_Transition_Pathways_Towards_100_Renewable_E

nergy_for_India_-_Supplementary_Material


DataLower and Upper Capacity Limits

Lower and Upper Capacity Limits - Renewables

PV optimally tilted

PV single-axis tracking Wind onshore Wind

offshore Hydro Run-of-River Hydro Dam CSP

GW GW GW GW GW GW GW

3-14756 0-14756 23-1102 0-NL* 14-25 22-24 0-29511

Lower and Upper Capacity Limits – Non-renewablesCoal Oil Natural gas Nuclear

GW GW GW GW

162-NL 4-NL 24-NL 7-NL

NL – No upper limit specified*Not utilized for India


ResultsCountry-wide scenario

LCOE total[€/MWh]

LCOE primary[€/MWh]

LCOC[€/MWh]

LCOS[€/MWh]

LCOT[€/MWh]

Total annualized

cost[b€]

Total capex[b€]

Capex needed in 5-years period

[b€]

2015 57.7 55.5 0.6 0.3 1.3 81.3 452.0 -2020 63.4 60.6 0.1 1.6 1.1 109.3 590.8 138.82025 72.2 63.9 0.1 6.4 1.7 151.3 926.9 336.12030 70.2 53.0 0.4 14.7 2.1 179.9 1398.1 471.22035 66.0 43.1 0.6 19.7 2.6 208.6 1883.4 485.32040 60.9 36.7 1.5 21.1 1.5 239.6 2224.3 341.02045 56.3 31.2 1.7 21.9 1.5 277.8 2630.6 406.32050 52.2 27.5 1.7 21.2 1.7 323.9 3111.5 480.8


ResultsIntegrated scenario

LCOE total[€/MWh]

LCOE primary[€/MWh]

LCOC[€/MWh]

LCOS[€/MWh]

LCOT[€/MWh]

Total annualized

cost[b€]

Total capex[b€]

Capex needed in 5-years periods

[b€]

2015 57.8 55.6 0.6 0.3 1.3 87.8 453.3 -2020 63.3 61.3 0.1 0.8 1.1 118.5 603.7 150.42025 70.7 63.6 0.1 5.4 1.5 174.2 1059.1 455.42030 68.2 53.0 0.6 12.8 1.9 217.8 1721.7 662.62035 63.6 42.3 1.0 18.7 1.6 273.4 2513.7 792.02040 58.1 35.2 1.6 20.0 1.4 313.9 3006.4 492.72045 49.7 29.0 1.2 18.3 1.2 360.7 3695.1 688.72050 46.3 25.5 1.2 18.1 1.5 412.8 4326.2 631.1


ResultsCountry-wide scenario - Grid Utilization - 2050

Key insight:• Most of the interregional electricity trading in the monsoon months


ResultsInstalled capacities

Key insight:• Coal dominates the total power plant capacity in 2015• After 2015, solar PV dominates the installed capacities• Additional demand created by seawater desalination and non-energetic industrial gas is

satisfied by installation of additional PV plants

Country-wide scenario Integrated Scenario


ResultsRatio of storage output to electricity demand

Key insight:• Till 2020, pumped hydro storage provides the most cost effective storage solution• Batteries are required after 2025 and gas storage after 2040



ResultsFixed operational costs


Key insights:• Increasing opex costs, mainly for batteries, solar PV and biomass


ResultsVariable operational costs


Key insights:• Decreasing opex costs due to phasing out of fossil fuels in particular coal


ResultsDesalination

Key insights:• Installed desalination capacity based on reverse osmosis to satisfy the huge water demand • All other technologies for seawater desalination are expensive


ResultsDesalination – Capex and Opex

Key insights:• Capex expenditures and operational costs are for reverse osmosis and water transportation


ResultsInput of gas by source for electricity production

Key insights:• Gradually phasing out of fossil gas for electricity production• In 2050, all the gas for electricity production is synthetic natural gas


ResultsState of Charge for gas storage in 2050

Key insights:• Gas storage mainly utilized in the summer months


ResultsMethanation operation mode in 2050

Key insights:• Methanation plants run all year around to produce synthetic natural gas

Documents

ENERGY TRANSITION ROADMAP TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE … · 2017-08-24 · Energy Transition Roadmap Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India by 2050 7 Ashish Gulagi [email protected]