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Economist Intelligence Unit Energy Deep Drill Analysis
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Driving Energy TransformationA look at energy trends to 2020
Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing
Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy
March 9, 2010
Today’s Presenters
Tony McAuleyManaging Editor, Energy
Location: London, UK
Carla RapoportDirector, Industry Briefing
Location: London, UK
Research and advisory arm of The Economist Group for business executives
650 analysts and industry specialists worldwide covering
• Analysis and forecasting for over 200 countries and territories
• Risk assessment
• Market sizing
• Industry data and trendsautomotive, consumer goods, energy, financial services, healthcare, technology
Familiar themes, unprecedented uncertainty
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Resource competitionResource nationalism
Policy uncertainty
Curbing & Pricing CO2
Energy security
EIU Energy Briefing – data tool
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
EnergyDeep-drill
EIU Energy Briefing – Deep drill
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
ObjectivesA dynamic tool to deal with uncertainty, complexityAdaptable to new information
Energy Briefing Deep-drill approach
EIU’s country-based approachIEA’s historic data for consistencyEIU Economic and Demographic ForecastsNational energy plans as reference pointEIU Country analysts change forecasts as new information emerges
Go to www.eiu.com/energydd
Country energy profiles in numbers
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
China’s energy mix
Big picture – China’s key target
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 08 11 14 17 20
China USA
Not quite there (China, US Energy Intensity (Energy/GDP)
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.
China’s 2020 target is 40-45% of 2005; At 34%, it falls short
US energy intensity declines by 23%
US – China: passing on the escalator
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Overall energy consumption stays fairly flat but the US struggles to meet goal of 17% CO2 cut by 2020
China, already ahead of US as largest outright CO2 emissions, doubles CO2 by 2020 as it surges pastUS in outright energy consumption
CHINA: Rising gas keeps fossil fuel dominant
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
•Total energy consumption more than doubles to 3.6bn toe
•Fossil fuels’ combined share rises to 87% from 85%
•The rise is due to a nine-fold increase in gas consumption
•Coal remains dominant but its overall share drops from 64% to 61%
•Oil product demand rises 56% as the transportation sector expands
Nuclear, Wind share may grow more
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
•Electricity capacity to double by 2020
•Conservatively, Nuclear and Wind share will double –room to improve those targets
•Though Hydro grows 65%, its share falls
•Combustible fuels takes a growing share
Next leap forward
Zhang Guobao, boss of China’s National Energy Administration What might change?
•New “super ministry” created –National Energy Commission, headed by Prime Minister
•NEA 10-year plan to focus on 15% of total energy consumption from renewables
•Nuclear target may be increased –already raised twice but target share may rise to 5%
•More aggressive target for wind and other key renewables
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
A “BRICET” Example - Turkey
Without nuclear, the rise in electricity demand is to be met mainly from
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Turkey – making small “green” gains
Relatively stable coal, oil and gas shares – renewables share grows from 8.4% to 10.25% in 2020. Wild cards are nuclear and privatisaion
Nuclear could have big impact
Taner Yildiz, Turkey’s energy ministerWhat could change?
•Nuclear could add as much as 9Gw, or 15% of electricity capacity, if Russian and Korean plans are completed
•Joint government ownership is likely, but the idea of public-private partnerships for nuclear has been floated
•Government is on track to have electricity fully privatised by 2013
•Turkey’s gas needs are projected to grow 47.5% by 2020
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
UK, gassing up
Natural gas takes up the slack as coal’s share declines
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Ambitious targets
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Coal economics
Drax Power Station – Selby, United Kingdom
•A belwether plant, accountsfor about 5% of UK capacity
•Most recently completed coal-firedPlant in UK
•Emits about 4% of UK CO2 emissions
•Has biomass co-firing capability of 500Mw
•Uneconomic to run biomass at CO2, subsidy prices
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Energy Briefing and Forecasts
Questions and Answers
More Information?
Holly DonahueMarket Development [email protected] (212) 541 - 0596
Data and analysis from today’s presentation were taken from the Economist Intelligence Unit’s energy briefing services. For more information on these services, please visit
www.eiu.com/energyddFor other services from the EIU including country analysis and forecasting, risk assessment, and economic data, please visit www.eiu.com
Have a question for our editors or would like more information on the EIU? Please contact:
Thank you