Enfield Retail and Town Centres Need Assessment Update

Enfield Retail and Town Centres

Need Assessment Update 2017 to 2035

London Borough of Enfield

12 March 2018

© 2018 Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd, trading as Lichfields. All Rights Reserved. Registered in England, no. 2778116. 14 Regent’s Wharf, All Saints Street, London N1 9RL Formatted for double sided printing. Plans based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A 15936/PW/PW 15269531v2

Enfield Retail and Town Centres : Need Assessment Update 2017 to 2035

Contents

1.0 Introduction 1

Background 1

2.0 Retail and Capacity Assessment 3

Study Area 3

Population and Expenditure 3

Base Year Spending Patterns 2017 3

Future Shopping Patterns 4

Capacity for Convenience Goods Floorspace 5

Capacity for Comparison Goods Floorspace 6

3.0 Food and Beverage Capacity Assessment 8

Expenditure 8

Base Year Spending Patterns 2017 8

Capacity for Food and Beverage Floorspace 8

4.0 Commercial Leisure Assessment 10

Introduction 10

Bingo, Games of Chance and Gambling 12

5.0 Implications for the Development Strategy 14

Introduction 14

Floorspace Projections 14

Accommodating Growth 16

Summary 21


Pg 1

1.0 Introduction

Background

1.1 Lichfields was commissioned by the London Borough of Enfield to prepare the Enfield Retail

and Town Centres Study published in November 2014 (ERTCS 2014). The objectives of ERTCS

2014 were to:

1 assess changes in circumstances and shopping and leisure patterns since previous retail

studies were undertaken, including the effects of the recession and the availability of 2011

Census data;

2 assess the future need and (residual) capacity for retail, town centre office, commercial

leisure and entertainment/cultural floorspace in the Borough for the period up to 2029;

3 assess the potential implications of emerging developments both within and outside the

Borough e.g. the expansion at Brent Cross, Tottenham and development proposals at the

Brookfield Centre, Cheshunt, in terms of impact on town centres and potential changes to

shopping patterns;

4 review the existing retail hierarchy and network of centres and advise whether any changes

were required;

5 review the existing extent of the town centres and primary shopping areas and advise on

any changes required to accommodate retail floorspace, and any alterations required to

policies protecting shopping frontages;

6 provide advice on policies to be included in development plan documents to address future

needs, and provide recommendations on how each centre can develop its role.

1.2 This report provides a partial update of the ERTCS 2014, and should be read alongside the

previous 2014 study. This report updates the Borough wide retail capacity projections and need

assessment 2014 to 2029, including:

1 an update of population projections based on the GLA’s latest ward based projections,

amended as necessary to take into account alternative growth scenarios and new homes

within the Meridian Water proposals.

2 adoption of Experian's local expenditure data (the latest 2015 base year data will be

obtained) for the 7 study area zones.

3 adoption of Experian's latest (November 2016) expenditure growth projections and home

shopping projections (special forms of trading - SFT).

4 Revised retail sales floorspace for main food stores in the Borough based on the latest

StorePoint 2017 database.

5 Benchmark turnover estimates for existing and proposed food store floorspace based on

Global Data 2017 information.

6 Experian’s latest growth forecast for SFT and growth in turnover efficiencies;

7 An update on pipeline retail developments that are likely to affect shopping and leisure

patterns within the Borough.

8 Adjustments to market shares as necessary to take into account the impact implications of

commitments and implemented schemes, and also the possible implications of the four-

tracking of the WAML, Crossrail 2 and Cycle Enfield.


Pg 2

9 Analysis and recommendations on the implications of the updated need assessment and

commentary on how this can be met.


Pg 3

2.0 Retail and Capacity Assessment

2.1 This section objectively assesses the quantitative scope for new retail and food/beverage

floorspace in Enfield Borough in the period from 2017 to 2035. The assessment follows the

same approach adopted in the ERTCS 2014. A summary of the methodology and key data inputs

is contained in Appendix 1.

Study Area

2.2 The quantitative analysis is based on a defined study area and seven sub-zones, as adopted in

the ERTCS 2014. This study area included Enfield Borough, split into four zones (1 to 4) and

parts of neighbouring boroughs i.e. Barnet (Zone 5), Haringey (Zone 6) and Waltham Forest

(Zone 7). The study area covers the catchment areas of the main shopping destinations in

Enfield Borough. The study area is shown in Appendix 1.

Population and Expenditure

2.3 The study area population for 2014 to 2031 is set out in Table 1 in Appendix 2. The 2011 base

year population for each zone has been obtained and projected to 2035 using the GLA’s latest

2016 based projections (trend projections, long migration scenario) and the distribution based

on GLA 2016 ward based projections. Population in the study area as a whole is projected to

increase from 552,979 in 2014 to 663,036 in 2035, a 19.9% increase.

2.4 Table 2 in Appendix 2 sets out the forecast growth in spending per head for convenience goods

within each zone in the study area up to 2035. Forecasts of comparison goods are shown in

Table 3 in Appendix 3.

2.5 Based on the latest population projections, as a consequence of growth in population and per

capita spending, convenience goods spending within the study area is forecast to increase by

13.7% from £1,054 million in 2017 to £1,198 million in 2035, as shown in Table 3 (Appendix 2).

Expenditure per capita is expected to reduce (-1.1%) due to an increase in special forms of

trading and home shopping, but this will be offset by population growth. `

2.6 Comparison goods spending is forecast to increase by 88% between 2017 and 2035, increasing

from £1,572 million in 2017 to £2,961 million in 2035, as shown in Table 3 (Appendix 3).

2.7 It should be noted that comparison goods spending is forecast to increase more than

convenience spending as the amount spent on food and beverage does not increase

proportionately with disposable income, whereas spending on non-food goods is more closely

linked to income.

2.8 These figures relate to real growth and exclude inflation.

Base Year Spending Patterns 2017

2.9 The results of the household shopper questionnaire survey undertaken by NEMS in March 2014

have been used to estimate base year shopping patterns within the study area zones.

Adjustments have been made to the market share estimates to reflect changes between 2014 and

2017.

Convenience Shopping

2.10 The estimates of market share or penetration within each study area zone are shown in Table 4,

Appendix 2. The level of convenience goods expenditure attracted to shops/stores in Enfield

Borough at 2017 is estimated to be £696.28 million as shown in Table 5, Appendix 2. The total


Pg 4

benchmark turnover of the existing convenience sales floorspace within the Borough is £696.56

million (Table 11, Appendix 2). These figures suggest that collectively convenience retail

facilities in the Borough are trading around the national average and there is equilibrium

between sales floorspace and available expenditure. Given the high level (89%) of convenience

expenditure retained in the Borough, this suggests that there is a sufficient supply of

convenience goods floorspace.

Comparison Shopping

2.11 The estimated comparison goods expenditure currently attracted by shopping facilities within

Enfield Borough is £786.67 million in 2017, as shown in Table 5, Appendix 3. This includes

estimates of inflow from beyond the study area. Based on the base year estimate of comparison

goods expenditure attracted to facilities within the Borough, the average sales density for

existing comparison sales floorspace (about 143,000 sq.m net) is around £5,500 per sq.m net in

2017. The average at 2014, as estimated within the ERTCS 2014 was 5,391 per sq.m net, which

suggests there has been modest growth in turnover densities between 2014 and 2017. Overall

comparison retail floorspace within the Borough appears to be trading satisfactorily, albeit

within difficult market conditions.

Future Shopping Patterns

2.12 The retail capacity figures, and food/beverage projections in the next section, take into account

proposed major development in surrounding Borough i.e. the expansion of Brent Cross and

regeneration proposals at Wood Green. The expenditure projections also take into account the

expected growth in internet/home shopping.

2.13 The implications of possible major expansion at Brookfield in Broxbourne have been explored

with comparison goods projections prepared “with” and “without” this proposal. These

developments are likely to reduce Enfield’s market share of expenditure, particularly in

peripheral study area zones outside the Borough.

2.14 Growth areas and infrastructure projects could also affect shopping patterns. Part of the

Borough is included within the Upper Lee Valley Opportunity Area (ULVOA) in the adopted

London Plan, and the New Southgate Opportunity Area (NSOA) is included in the latest draft

London Plan. The floorspace capacity figures take into account the GLA’s population growth

projections for these opportunity areas. It is possible regeneration proposals will increase

average expenditure in the more deprived parts of the Borough, over and above Experian’s

recommended growth forecast, but conversely levels of mobility and hone shopping could offset

this growth. In this respect the expenditure growth projections in the eastern half of the

Borough could be viewed as a minimum requirement.

2.15 The eastern half of the Borough will benefit from the Crossrail 2 line improving north south

linkages with stations at Enfield Lock, Brimsdown, Ponders End and Angel, and linked to this

four-tracking of the West Anglia Main Line (WAML) at Meridian Water and four trans per hour

between Stratford-Tottenham-Angel Road (STAR) are expected to support development and

regeneration. These infrastructure projects will inevitably assist in bringing forward

development proposals in the area and will increase levels of accessibility to centres in this part

of Enfield Borough, but conversely accessibility to shopping and leisure facilities in Central

London and at Stratford. Crossrail is not expected to be completed until 2033, therefore its

impact will not be fully felt until the end of the plan period.

2.16 Cycle Enfield projects will increase local levels of accessibility and should help to increase levels

of expenditure retention within the Borough, including improve linkages into Enfield Town and

Palmers Green via the A105) and Southbury Road. North South Linkages will be improved in


Pg 5

the Lee Valley along the A1010. Consultation responses indicate improvements to cycle

accessibility to shops and services are a high priority. However household shopper and in-street

survey results within the ERTCS 2014 suggest that the proportion of shoppers cycling to centres

is relatively low (less than 1%) and therefore the overall impact of Cycle Enfield projects on

shopping patterns is unlikely to be significant.

2.17 On balance, the key factors likely to change future shopping and leisure patterns within the

study area are likely to be the growth in home shopping and major developments within

competing centres. These factors have been taken into account. Other factors are likely to have

mixed impacts i.e. positive and negative, and are likely to balance out.

Capacity for Convenience Goods Floorspace

2.18 The future levels of available convenience goods expenditure in 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 are

shown at Tables 6 to 10 in Appendix 2. The total level of convenience goods expenditure

available for shops in the Borough between 2017 and 2035 is summarised in Table 12 (Appendix

2). Convenience expenditure available to shopping facilities in the Borough is expected to

increase from £696 million in 2017 to £797 million in 2035, due to population growth.

2.19 Table 12 subtracts the turnover of existing floorspace from available expenditure to calculate the

amount of surplus expenditure that may be available for further new development. By 2020

there is a projected small surplus of £10.39 million, which is increase to £37.4 million in 2025.

Long term expenditure growth generates an expenditure surplus of £87.99 million by 2035.

2.20 The surplus expenditure projections have been converted into floorspace estimates in Table 13.

Expenditure is converted into floorspace estimates using an assumed average sales density

figure of £12,000 per sq.m, based on a generic average turnover of the main food supermarket

operators.

2.21 Floorspace projections have be split, based on constant market shares, between Enfield Town,

and the north, south , east and west sectors of the Borough. The floorspace requirements are

summarised in Table 2.1 below.

2.22 The global capacity for the Borough as a whole is 8,457 sq.m gross by 2030, increasing to 11,975

sq.m gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 retail capacity assessment suggested a higher figure of

14,414 sq.m gross would be required within Borough by 2029. The updated floorspace

projection to 2030 is lower despite the slightly higher GLA population growth projections. These

higher population projections have been offset by lower expenditure growth forecasts.


Pg 6

Table 2.1 Convenience Goods Floorspace Projections (SQ.M Gross)

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Town 723 1,027 1,499

Enfield North West 343 447 653

Enfield North East 911 1,500 2,209

Enfield South East 1,700 3,273 4,085

Enfield South West 1,499 2,209 3,529

Borough Total 5,175 8,457 11,975

Source: Table 12, Appendix 2

Capacity for Comparison Goods Floorspace

2.23 The updated retail capacity projections for comparison goods retail floorspace within the

Borough have been based on two scenarios. First, market shares (post 2020) have been adjusted

to reflect the implementation of the major commitments at Brent Cross (Table 7A in Appendix

3). Second, market shares have been adjusted to reflect both the implementation of Brent Cross

and also the possible expansion of retail provision at Wood Green and at Brookfield in

Broxbourne and (Table 7B in Appendix 3).

2.24 Available comparison goods expenditure has been projected for both scenarios. Projections for

the “without Brookfield/Wood Green” scenario are shown in Tables 8A to 11A in Appendix 3,

and summarised in Table 12A. Based on this scenario, available comparison expenditure to

facilities within the Borough is expected to increase from £786 million in 2017 to £1,462 million

in 2035.

2.25 Projections for the “with Brookfield/Wood Green” scenario are shown in Tables 8B to 11B in

Appendix 3, and summarised in Table 12B. Based on this scenario, available comparison

expenditure to facilities within the Borough is expected to increase from £786 million in 2017 to

£1,393 million in 2035.

2.26 Tables 12A and 12B assumes that the turnover of comparison floorspace will increase in real

terms in the future. Experian’s recommended growth rates have been adopted. This growth will

help to maintain the health and viability of town centres.

2.27 Surplus comparison expenditure has been converted into net comparison sales floorspace

projections at Tables 13A and 13B in Appendix 3, adopting average sales densities in 2017 of

£6,367 per sq.m (adjusted from £6,000 per sq.m net in 2014 to 2017 at 2% per annum).

2.28 Again floorspace projections have be split, based on constant market shares, between Enfield

Town, and the north, south , east and west sectors of the Borough. The floorspace requirements

for the “without” Brookfield/Wood Green scenario are summarised in Table 2.3, and the “with”

Brookfield/Wood Green scenario in Table 2.4.

2.29 The cumulative global capacity (without Brookfield/Wood Green) for the Borough as a whole is

30,222 sq.m gross by 2030, increasing to 46,577 gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 retail capacity

assessment suggested 43,919 sq.m gross would be required within Borough by 2029. The

updated floorspace projection to 2030 is lower due to lower expenditure growth forecasts.

2.30 The “with” Brookfield/Wood Green projections are 57% lower at 2025 than the “without”

figures, but this reduces to 21% lower in 2035. The Brookfield and Wood Green expansions are

is expected to reduce floorspace projections, particularly in Enfield Town.


Pg 7

Table 2.2 Comparison Goods Floorspace Projections (SQ.M Gross) – Without Brookfield/Wood Green Expansion

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Town 5,305 12,061 19,855


Enfield North East 3,621 6,463 9,732



Borough Total 14,9966 30,222 46,577

Source: Table 13A, Appendix 3

Table 2.3 Comparison Goods Floorspace Projections (SQ.M Gross) – With Brookfield/Wood Green Expansion

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Town 610 7,019 14,386


Enfield North East 1,315 3,987 7,053


Enfield South West 627 1,975 3,807

Borough Total 6,437 21,029 36,609

Source: Table 13B, Appendix 3

2.31 The implications of these updated projections for Enfield Borough’s development strategy are

addressed in Section 5.


Pg 8

3.0 Food and Beverage Capacity Assessment

Expenditure

3.1 Table 2 in Appendix 4 sets out the forecast growth in for food and beverage expenditure per

head (eating and drinking away from the home and takeaway hot food) within each zone in the

study area up to 2035. Forecasts of comparison goods are shown in Table 3 in Appendix 3.

3.2 Based on the latest population projections, as a consequence of growth in population and per

capita spending, food and beverage spending within the study area is forecast to increase by

40% from £611 million in 2017 to £849 million in 2035, as shown in Table 3 (Appendix 4).

Base Year Spending Patterns 2017

3.3 The results of the household shopper questionnaire survey undertaken by NEMS in March 2014

have been used to estimate base year food and beverage patterns within the study area zones.

The estimates of market share or penetration within each study area zone are shown in Table 4,

Appendix 3.

3.4 The level of food and beverage expenditure attracted to facilities in Enfield Borough at 2017 is

estimated to be £291.71 million as shown in Table 5, Appendix 3. The average sales density for

existing food and beverage floorspace (about 58,000 sq.m gross) is around £5,000 per sq.m

gross in 2017. The average at 2014, as estimated within the ERTCS 2014 was 4,855 per sq.m net,

which suggests there has been modest growth in turnover densities between 2014 and 2017.

Overall food and beverage floorspace within the Borough appears to be trading satisfactorily.

Capacity for Food and Beverage Floorspace

3.5 The future levels of food and beverage expenditure in 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 are shown at

Tables 6 to 11A in Appendix 4. The total level of expenditure available for facilities in the

Borough between 2017 and 2035 is summarised in Table 11A (Appendix 4). Expenditure

available for facilities in the Borough is expected to increase from £291.71 million in 2017 to

£406.63 million in 2035. The 2035 projection reduces to £388.28 million if major expansion is

delivered at Wood Greene

3.6 Table 11A and 11B subtracts the turnover of existing floorspace from available expenditure to

calculate the amount of surplus expenditure that may be available for further new development.

By 2020 there is a projected small surplus of £5.14 million, which will increase only marginally

to £5.98 million in 2025, if major development is delivered at Wood Green. Long term

expenditure growth generates an expenditure surplus of £57.71 million by 2035, without

expansion at Wood Green, or £39.36 million with Wood Green expansion.

3.7 The surplus expenditure projections have been converted into floorspace estimates in Tables

12A and 12B. These tables assume that the turnover of food and beverage floorspace will

increase in real terms in the future. A growth rate of 1% per annum is adopted. Surplus food and

beverage expenditure has been converted into food and beverage floorspace projections at Table

12 in Appendix 4, adopting average sales densities in 2016 of £5,000 per sq.m, which is

projected to grow by 1% in the future due to improved turnover efficiency. The surplus

expenditure at 2031 could support 4,338 sq.m gross food and beverage floorspace.

3.8 Floorspace projections have be split, based on constant market shares, between Enfield Town,

and the north, south, east and west sectors of the Borough. The floorspace projections without

Wood Green expansion are summarised in Table 3.1 below. The with Wood Green expansion are

shown in Table 3.2.


Pg 9

Table 3.1 Food and Beverage Floorspace Projections (SQ.M Gross) – Without Wood Green

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Town 1,792 2,992 4,345


Enfield North East 178 297 415

Enfield South East 386 754 933


Borough Total 3,909 6,554 9,649


Table 3.2 Food and Beverage Floorspace Projections (SQ.M Gross) – With Wood Green

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Town 805 1,959 3,259


Enfield North East 178 297 415

Enfield South East 365 732 909

Enfield South West -280 524 1,693

Borough Total 1,105 3,638 6,580


3.9 The global capacity for the Borough as a whole is 6,554 sq.m gross by 2030, increasing to 9,649

sq.m gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 retail capacity assessment suggested a higher figure of

13,259 sq.m gross would be required within Borough by 2029. The updated floorspace

projection to 2030 is lower due to lower expenditure growth forecasts.

3.10 The implications of these updated projections for Enfield Borough’s development strategy are

addressed in Section 5.


Pg 10

4.0 Commercial Leisure Assessment

Introduction

4.1 This section reassesses the potential for commercial leisure uses in Enfield Borough, including

theatres, cinemas, ten pin bowling, bingo and health/fitness. The analysis excludes less

intensive sports uses that are not necessarily considered to be main town centre uses, e.g. sports

hall and pitches.

Cinemas

4.2 Cinema admissions in the UK declined steadily during the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, a period

when the ownership of televisions increased significantly. Cinema admissions continued to

decline in the early 1980s, but increased steadily after 1984 up to 2002. There was a peak in

cinema admissions in 2002 at 175.9 million. Total admissions in 2016 were 168.3 million.

Cinema trips have plateaued since 2002, despite population growth of 9.6% during this period

(59.4 million to 65.1 million). The 2016 UK national average is 2.6 trips per person. The average

for London, South East and Eastern regions is higher at 3 trips per person.

4.3 The Cinema Advertising Association identities 788 cinema facilities with 4,194 screens.

Lichfields’ national CINeSCOPE model identifies approximately 800,000 cinema seats in the

UK. The CINeSCOPE model assesses the provision of cinema screens/seat against projected

customer cinema trips across the country, in order to identify areas of under and over-provision.

The latest (2016) national average is about 40,000 cinema trips per screen per annum, or 210

trips per seat per annum.

4.4 In Enfield Borough, the Cineworld and Odeon cinemas provide 27 screens and 5,691 seats

(source: UK Cinemas.org). The study area population in 2017 (572,588 people) will generate

1.718 million cinema trips per annum, based on the London/South East/Eastern combined

regional average visitation rate (3.0 trips per person per annum). The number of trips generated

in each zone is shown in Table 2 in Appendix 5.

4.5 The survey results have been adopted to calculate the market share of trips attracted to each

cinema destinations as shown in Table 3 in Appendix 5. The distribution of cinema trips in 2017

is shown in Table 4 in Appendix 5. Enfield Borough attracts approximately 58% of cinema trips

from the study zones. In total existing cinemas in Enfield Borough attract 1.11 million trips in

2017. Based on an average of 210 trips per seat, existing cinemas would be expected to attract

1.19 million trips per annum. These figures suggest existing cinemas attract slightly less trips

than the regional average, on the basis the catchment population generates the same average

number of trips per person.

4.6 The cinema trip patterns are projected to 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035 in Tables 5 to 8 in

Appendix 5. The results are summarised in Table 10 and surplus trips are converted into

additional seats. The theoretical capacity results are shown in Table 5.1 below.

Table 5.1 Cinema Seat Capacity Projections

By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Enfield Borough -236 18 262 472

Source: Table 10 in Appendix 5


Pg 11

4.7 These projections suggest that there is theoretical capacity for a small/medium sized cinema

within the Borough in the latter part of the plan period after 2030 (300 to 500 seats or 3 to 5

screens). However the presence of two large multiplex cinemas at Southbury and Lee Valley

Leisure Parks and possible proposals for a multiplex cinema at Brookfield may limit operator

demand for an additional facility. Conversely new niche cinemas e.g. boutique or themed

cinemas could complement existing multiplex cinema provision. In qualitative terms the west of

the Borough is the most obvious area of deficiency.

Theatres

4.8 Data from the British Theatre Consortium, British Theatre Repertoire (2014) indicated British

theatres presented 59,386 performances attracting over 33 million theatre visits, around

121,000 visits per venue (274 venues with SOLT/UKTheatre’s membership).

4.9 Assuming an average of 0.5 trips to the theatre per person per annum, as implied by the British

Theatre Consortium data, the Enfield study area population in 2017 (572,588 people) generates

286,294 theatre trips per annum.

4.10 This trip estimate, when compared with the British Theatre Consortium/British Theatre

Repertoire average of around 121,000 visits per theatre venue, suggests the study area

population is capable of supporting two theatres. There is no clear need for additional theatre

provision in Enfield Borough, over and above existing facilities. Additional theatre facilities are

more likely to form part of a multi-purpose venue or a niche facility.

Private Health and Fitness Clubs

4.11 The 2012 household survey indicates that just over 30% of respondents or their families visit

health/fitness clubs. Of the participating households, Enfield Borough attracts about 53% of

health and fitness facilities trips within the study area.

4.12 The study area population in 2017 (572,588) is projected to grow to 663,036 by 2035. If health

and fitness facilities within the Borough continue to attract 53% of trips in the study area, then

the Borough’s health and fitness catchment population is about 300,000 in 2017, increasing to

350,000 in 2035.

4.13 The Greater London region currently has 1,072 registered health and fitness suites with 65,789

fitness stations (average of around 60 stations per suite). This existing provision equates to

around 7.6 fitness stations per 1,000 people.

4.14 Enfield’s catchment population (300,000 in 2017) could support 2,280 fitness stations, based

on the regional average of 7.6 stations per 1,000 people. The Sport England/Active Places data

indicates that there are 36 registered health and fitness suites with 1,732 fitness stations in

Enfield Borough. The main facilities are:

1 Pure Gym, Enfield 120 fitness stations

2 Pure Gym, Southgate 220 fitness stations

3 David Lloyd 110 fitness stations

4 Muscleworks 140 fitness stations

5 The Gym, Edmonton Green 117 fitness stations

6 Southbury Leisure Centre 92 fitness stations

7 Southgate Leisure Centre 90 fitness stations

8 Edmonton Leisure Centre 90 fitness stations


Pg 12

4.15 These figures suggest existing health and fitness facilities within Enfield Borough are trading

healthily, above the London average in 2017. The study area population is expected to increase

by about 90,500 between 2017 and 2035, which would generate demand for 688 additional

fitness stations by 2035. Enfield Borough should be capable of supporting 53% of these

additional fitness stations i.e. 365 fitness stations by 2035. There appears to be scope for

additional 3-4 large health and fitness facilities (around 100 fitness stations each) over the plan

period.

Ten Pin Bowling

4.16 The household survey results suggest that just over 19% of households in the study area visit

tenpin bowling facilities. The majority (66%) of these respondents visited the Hollywood Bowl

in Finchley and around 12% visited Rowans at Finsbury Park, with 18% going elsewhere in

London.

4.17 The population of LB Enfield (Zones 1 to 4) is about 336,000 in 2017. This population as a

whole could theoretically support 28 lanes, based on one lane per 12,000 people (national

average). Population growth within the Borough (56,000 between 2017 and 2035), could

support a further 4-5 lanes.

4.18 These figures suggest there is theoretical capacity to support a tenpin bowling facility within LB

Enfield.

Nightclubs/Live Music Venues

4.19 The nightclub/live music sector has struggled in recent years. IBIS World suggests have lost

their competitive advantage over pubs or bars, with lower prices and a more relaxed

atmosphere. Approximately one-quarter of nightclubs have closed in the past decade as

operators have struggled to respond to new challenges from regulation, licensing, planning,

business rates and policing.

4.20 The 2012 household survey results indicated that only 8.4% of households in the study area

visited nightclubs and less than 4% of these households visited a nightclub in Enfield Borough,

with 95% visiting ‘Other London’. The provision of nightclubs in Central London will limit the

potential for major new nightclubs in the Borough, but there may be scope to improve provision

if Enfield Borough can retain a higher market share of nightclub trips, perhaps as part of a

multi-purpose venue.

Bingo, Games of Chance and Gambling

4.21 The 2012 household survey results suggested that only 3.9% of households in the study area visit

bingo facilities, and of these, 66% visited Gala Bingo in Enfield.

4.22 Gala and Mecca are the main bingo operators, controlling over half of the UK market. Marketing

of the bingo sector has been more proactive in recent years and Gala and Mecca have invested in

premises, moving out of dated premises (i.e. converted cinemas) into purpose built units. Bingo

clubs have become increasingly sophisticated, and have actively sought to attract all age groups.

The bingo sector usually prefers central locations that are accessible by public transport and by

foot. Major bingo operators require a catchment population of 50,000 - 70,000 (source:

Business in Sport and Leisure BISL).

4.23 The adult (over 18) population in the study area (around 430,000 people) would generate about

750,000 bingo admissions, based on the national participation rate (1.75 trips per adult). If half

of these trips can be attracted to Enfield (around 375,000 trips) then there is theoretical


Pg 13

demand for 3 bingo facilities in the Borough based on national average figures (113,000

admissions per club), 2 more than the current provision.

Other Leisure, Entertainment and Cultural Uses

4.24 The leisure, entertainment and cultural sector is fragmented and innovative. In addition to the

main leisure and entertainment uses outlined above, there are a larger number of other

activities that could be promoted within town centres e.g. museums, art galleries, exhibition

space, casinos, tourist attractions and new emerging leisure activities such as trampoline

centres, family entertainment centres, escape rooms and virtual golf centres. Given the

fragmented nature of this sector it is difficult to quantify the potential demand for these uses,

particularly in the long term.

4.25 The study area population provides a critical mass and could attract a broad range of leisure,

entertainment and cultural uses. The development strategy needs to be flexible and have the

ability to response to emerging opportunities for new facilities of this kind, particularly in the

main town centres.


Pg 14

5.0 Implications for the Development Strategy

Introduction

5.1 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) indicates (paragraph 23) that local plans

should allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail, leisure and other

development needed in town centres. The need for development should be met in full and

should not be compromised by limited site supply. However, the draft changes to the NPPF

(March 2018) suggests the allocation of sites may not be required beyond 10 years.

5.2 In order to accommodate growth, local planning authorities should assess the need to expand

town centres to ensure a sufficient supply of suitable sites. The NPPF (paragraphs 23 and 24)

indicates local planning authorities should apply a sequential approach for development.

5.3 The National Planning Policy Guidance indicates that development plans should develop (and

keep under review) town centre strategies that plan for a 3-5 year period, whilst also giving a

Local Plan lifetime view. Plans should identify the scale of need for main town centre uses and

assess whether the need can be met on town centre sites or through expanding centres, with the

sequential test to be followed.

5.4 The PPG acknowledges that not all successful town centre regeneration projects are retail-led, or

will involve significant new developments. Public realm, transport and accessibility

improvements can play important roles.

5.5 This section assesses the scope to accommodate growth within Enfield Borough's main centres.

Floorspace Projections

5.6 The floorspace projections set out in the previous sections assume that other competing centres

will improve in the future. There are a number of issues that may influence the scope for new

floorspace and the appropriate location for this development, as follows:

1 major retail developments in competing centres e.g. Brent Cross, Wood Green and possibly

Brookfield;

2 the re-occupation of vacant retail floorspace;

3 the availability of land to accommodate new development;

4 the reliability of long term expenditure projections beyond 2025 due to greater margins of

error;

5 the effect of internet/home shopping on the demand for retail property;

6 the level of operator demand for floorspace in Enfield Borough, recognising the polarisation

of investment within larger centres; and

7 the ability of Enfield Borough to maintain its existing market share of expenditure in the

future in the face of increasing competition.

5.7 The PPG suggests town centre strategies should plan for a 3-5 year period, but the longer term

plan period should be considered. Projections up to 2025 are realistic and are based on up to

date forecasts, which take into account the uncertainties surrounding Brexit. The longer term

floorspace projections (up to 2030 and beyond) should be treated with caution and should only

be used as a broad guide, particularly when translated into the development plan allocations or

when used to guide development management decisions. Long term forecasts may be subject to

change due to unforeseen circumstances. Projected surplus expenditure is primarily attributable

to projected growth in spending per capita. If the growth in expenditure is lower than that


Pg 15

forecast then the scope for additional space will reduce. Long term projections should be

monitored and kept under review.

5.8 The expenditure projections in this study take into account home shopping made through non-

retail businesses, because special forms of trading have been excluded. The study assumes that

special forms of trading will increase in the future, including the growth of internet shopping.

5.9 The projections up to 2025 suggest there is scope for 5,175 sq.m gross of convenience goods

floorspace, 14,996 sq.m gross of comparison goods floorspace and 3,909 sq.m gross of Class A3

to A5 space. In total 24,079 sq.m gross could be provided by 2025. Tables 5.1 and 5.2 summarise

the floorspace projections by location up to 2025 and 2035, assuming no major expansion of

facilities at Brookfield and Wood Green.

Table 5.1 Summary of Floorspace Projections to 2025 (SQ.M Gross)

Location Convenience Retail Comparison Retail Food/Beverage Total

Enfield Town 723 5,305 1,792 7,820

Enfield North West 343 166 97 606

Enfield North East 911 3,621 178 4,710

Enfield South East 1,700 4,186 386 6,272

Enfield South West 1,499 1,717 1,455 4,671

Total 5,175 14,996 3,909 24,079

Source: Appendix 2, 3 and 4



Enfield Town 1,027 12,061 2,992 16,080

Enfield North West 447 268 189 904

Enfield North East 1,500 6,463 297 8,260



Total 8,457 30,222 6,554 45,230




Enfield Town 1,499 19,855 4,345 25,699

Enfield North West 653 399 370 1,422

Enfield North East 2,209 9,732 415 12,356



Total 11,975 46,577 9,649 68,201


5.10 If major expansion at Brookfield and Wood Green is implemented then the 2025 projection

would reduce from 24,079 sq.m to 12,717 sq.m gross. The 2035 projection would reduce from

68,201 sq.m gross to 55,164 sq.m gross.


Pg 16

Accommodating Growth

5.11 As suggested in the ERTCS 2014, the existing stock of premises should have a role to play in

accommodating projected growth. The ERTCS 2014 indicated there were 133 vacant shop units

within the Borough, which equated to an overall vacancy rate of 5.4%, lower than the Goad

national average at that time (12.1%). The total amount of vacant floorspace was about 13,300

sq.m gross. The ERTCS 2014 suggested it is reasonable to assume the level of vacant retail

floorspace in the Borough could fall by 25%, i.e. 5.4% to around 4%. As a result, the

reoccupation of 35 vacant units could accommodate about 3,500 sq.m gross of Class A1 to A5

floorspace. It is unclear the extent to which the number of vacant shop units has changed since

2014, but anecdotally officers suggest the vacancy rate has increased rather than reduced in

recent years. The future strategy should continue to assume that, as a minimum, 3,500 sq.m

gross of Class A1 to A5 floorspace can be accommodated in reoccupied vacant shop units.

Enfield Town Centre

5.12 The medium and long term floorspace projections for Enfield Town are 5,629 sq.m gross at

2025 increasing to 23,190 sq.m gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 suggested vacant shop units in

Enfield Town could accommodate about 700 sq.m gross. More recent information collated for

the GLA’s centre health checks suggests Enfield Town has a higher level of vacant space i.e.

3,170 sq.m gross of vacant retail floorspace (20 units). If this vacancy rate can be halved then

the retail capacity projections could be reduced by around 1,600 sq.m gross. The short to

medium term projection to 2025 would reduce to around 4,000 sq.m gross.

5.13 The emerging Enfield Town Centre Framework Masterplan (draft July 2017) identifies 8

potential development opportunities that could accommodate retail floorspace at ground floor

level, as part of mixed uses developments in Enfield Town, between 7,750 to 11,450 sq.m. The

development capacity of these development opportunities is as follows:

1 Genotin Road Car Park 250 to 500 sq.m;

2 St Anne’s School & 52 London Road 2,000 to 4,000 sq.m;

3 London Road Island site 300 to 500 sq.m;

4 Enfield Station 300 to 500 sq.m;

5 Magistrate’s Building 750 to 1,000 sq.m;

6 Ross House 150 to 30 sq.m;

7 Tesco and Royal Mail 4,000 to 4,500 sq.m;

8 Auto 2000 0 to 150 sq.m.

5.14 The emerging masterplan suggests up to 5,000 sq.m gross could be delivered in the short term

(over the next 5 years), with a further 1,800 sq.m possible between 5 to 10 years. Longer term

opportunities (over 10 years) total 4,650 sq.m, but this includes the net loss of the existing Tesco

store (about 3,500 sq.m gross), so the net uplift may only be 1,150 sq.m. In total the masterplan

could increase retail floorspace by up to 7,950 sq.m by 2030. The indicative delivery

programme is shown in Table 5.4.


Pg 17

Table 5.4 Summary of Floorspace Capacity in Enfield Town

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035

Floorspace Projection Sq.M Gross 7,820 16,080 25,699

Reoccupation vacant units - 1,600 - 1,600 - 1,600

Masterplan short term sites - 5,000 - 5,000 - 5,000

Masterplan medium/long term sites - 2,950 - 2,950

Residual -1,220 6,530 15,149

5.15 Table 5.4 suggests the floorspace projections for Enfield Town can be accommodated by the re-

occupation of vacant shops and the delivery of short term masterplan sites. About 60% of the

floorspace projection to 2030 could be accommodated leaving a residual of 6,530 sq.m. This

residual increases to 15,149 sq.m by 2035. Overall the re-occupation of vacant shops and the

delivery of masterplan sites could accommodate about 51% of the projection up to 2035. This

suggests the long term residual projection (up to 15,149 sq.m gross) may need to be

redistributed to other parts of the Borough.

5.16 If major expansion of comparison goods facilities at Brookfield and Wood Green is implemented

then the overall 2025 floorspace projection for Enfield Town would reduce from 7,820 sq.m to

2,138 sq.m gross. The 2030 projection would reduce from 16,080 sq.m gross to 10,005 sq.m

gross, which would create a small residual of 455 sq.m gross at 2030. Development at Brookfield

and Wood Green would reduce the long term residual at 2035 from 15,149 sq.m gross to 9,594

sq.m gross.

5.17 The implications of the impact of the Brookfield and Wood Green developments could be to

delay some of the short term masterplan proposals in Enfield Town until after 2025. In the

longer term (between 2030 to 2035) the Enfield Town masterplan proposals should not be

affected, provided long term expenditure growth projections are achieved.

North West Enfield (Zone 1)

5.18 This zone has a limited retail provision, but the residents in this zone have good access to

Enfield town centre and retail parks to the east. The medium and long term floorspace

projections for North West Enfield are modest, at 606 sq.m gross at 2025 increasing to 1,422

sq.m gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 suggested vacant shop units in local centres in this zone

could accommodate about 1,000 sq.m gross.

5.19 The residual long term projection taking into account vacant floorspace is only 422 sq.m gross.

There is no need to allocate sites for major development in this zone, unless capacity is

redistributed from Enfield Town and or South West Enfield (Zone 2).

5.20 If major expansions at Brookfield and Wood Green are implemented then the overall 2025

floorspace projection for this zone reduces from 606 sq.m to 492 sq.m. The impact on centres

within this zone is not significant.

North East Enfield (Zone 2)

5.21 Residents in this zone have good access to Enfield town centre. Comparison goods retail

provision in this zone is dominated by retail parks. The medium and long term floorspace

projections for North East Enfield are 4,710 sq.m gross at 2025 increasing to 12,356 sq.m gross

by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 suggested vacant shop units in local centres in this zone could

accommodate about 800 sq.m gross.


Pg 18

5.22 This zone forms part of the Lee Valley Opportunity Area (LVOA) in the London Plan. The

floorspace capacity figures take into account the GLA’s population growth projections for the

LVOA. This area will benefit from the Crossrail 2 line and improving north south linkages with

stations at Enfield Lock, Brimsdown and Ponders End, but conversely accessibility to shopping

and leisure facilities in Central London will be improved.

5.23 The North East Enfield Action Area Plan (June 2016) sets out a range of projects and initiatives,

including proposals to improve local centres at Ponders End, Enfield Highway, Enfield Wash

and Enfield Lock Station. Two areas are identified as having potential for retail development as

follows:

1 Ponders End High Street and Central Area; and

2 Enfield Wash Co-op site.

5.24 The potential capacity of these sites is not specified. The former Co-op store at Enfield Wash has

recently been occupied by Lidl, and is unlikely to be available for redevelopment for the

foreseeable future, but this new Lidl store needs to be subtracted from the retail capacity figures.

The main development opportunity in Ponders End (around 0.6 hectare) could accommodate

about 3,500 sq.m gross, assuming a ground floor development of about 60%. The indicative

delivery programme for this zone is shown in Table 5.5.

Table 5.5 Summary of Floorspace Capacity in North East Enfield (Zone 2)

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035


Reoccupation vacant units - 800 - 800 - 800

New Lidl store Enfield Wash - 1,800 - 1,800 - 1,800

Ponders End High Street AAP site - 3,500 - 3,500

Residual 2,110 2,160 6,256

5.25 Table 5.5 suggests about 74% of the floorspace projections for North East Enfield (Zone 2) up to

2030 can be accommodated by the re-occupation of vacant shops, the new Lidl store and

delivery of development in Ponders End High Street. Only 49% of the long term floorspace

projection to 2035 could be accommodated leaving a residual of 6,256 sq.m, which suggests the

long term residual projection may need to be redistributed to other parts of the Borough, or

other development opportunities need to be identified in this zone.

5.26 If major expansions at Brookfield and Wood Green are implemented then the overall 2025

floorspace projection for this zone would reduce from 4,710 sq.m to 2,404 sq.m gross, which

would create a small deficit of -196 sq.m gross at 2025. The 2030 projection would reduce from

8,260 sq.m gross to 5,784 sq.m gross, which would create a small deficit of -316 sq.m gross. The

impact on existing centres within this zone is not significant, because most of the comparison

goods provision is provided within out of centre retail parks.

South East Enfield (Zone 3)

5.27 The medium and long term floorspace projections for South East Enfield are 6,272 sq.m gross at

2025 increasing to 16,530 sq.m gross by 2035.


Pg 19

5.28 Most of this zone forms part of the Lee Valley Opportunity Area (LVOA) in the London Plan.

The floorspace capacity figures take into account the GLA’s population growth projections for

the LVOA. This area will benefit from the Crossrail 2 line and WAML improvements, enhancing

north-south linkages with a station at Angel Road, but conversely accessibility to shopping and

leisure facilities in Central London will be improved.

5.29 The ERTCS 2014 suggested vacant shop units in in this zone could only accommodate about

300 sq.m gross. More recent information collated for the GLA’s centre health checks suggests

Angel Edmonton and Edmonton Green district centres have 3,790 sq.m gross of vacant retail

floorspace (17 units), compared with 8 vacant units recorded in 2014. Vacant units within the

zone could now accommodate around 1,500 sq.m gross.

5.30 The Edmonton Leeside Proposed Submission Area Action Plan January 2017 covers the south

east corner of the Borough, located within study area Zone 3. It proposes a new neighbourhood

at Meridian Water including new retail, leisure and community facilities. This includes a new

town centre, which is expected to have an appropriate mix of uses that does not undermine the

primary retail function of nearby district centres.

5.31 The Meridian Water Spatial Framework (2015) proposes high density mixed use development

including retail and community facilities. The vision for the area includes The Causeway that

will function as the ‘high street’ of Meridian Water. The indicative land use strategy suggests

retail, cultural and community services will be encouraged at ground floor level along The

Causeway and also local facilities within residential areas.

5.32 The Edmonton Leeside AAP suggests 950 sq.m gross of Class A1 to A3 uses is committed in

Phase 1 at Meridian Water, but the scale of retail in the development area as a whole has not be

quantified within the Framework. The indicative masterplan suggests the physical capacity, over

and above existing retail uses in the area, could exceed 5,000 sq.m gross.

5.33 The scale, nature and phasing of retail development at Meridian Water will need to be carefully

considered in order to avoid an unacceptable retail impact on Edmonton Green and Angel

Edmonton district centres.

5.34 The indicative delivery programme for this zone is shown in Table 5.6.

Table 5.6 Summary of Floorspace Capacity in South East Enfield (Zone 3)

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035



Meridian Water Phase 1 - 950 - 950 - 950

Rest of Meridian Water - 3,000 - 5,000 - 5,000

Residual 822 4,864 9,080

5.35 Table 5.6 suggests about 60% of the floorspace projections for South East Enfield (Zone 2) up to

2030 can be accommodated by the re-occupation of vacant shops and development at Meridian

Water. Only 45% of the long term floorspace projection to 2035 could be accommodated leaving

a residual of 9,080 sq.m, which suggests the long term residual projection may need to be

redistributed to other parts of the Borough, or other development opportunities need to be

identified in the zone.


Pg 20

5.36 Major expansion at Wood Green is not expected to reduce retail capacity within this zone from

16,530 sq.m gross to 16,017 sq.m gross in 2035. The impact on existing centres within this zone

is not significant.

South West Enfield (Zone 4)

5.37 Residents in this zone have good access to Enfield town centre in the north or Wood Green town

centre to the south. Expansion/improvement of facilities at Wood Green has been taken into

account within the long term capacity projections.

5.38 The medium and long term floorspace projections for South West Enfield are 4,671 sq.m gross

at 2025 increasing to 12,194 sq.m gross by 2035. The ERTCS 2014 suggested vacant shop units

in this zone could accommodate about 1,100 sq.m gross. More recent information collated for

the GLA’s centre health checks suggests Palmers Green district centre has 1,630 sq.m gross of

vacant retail floorspace (13 units), compared with 2 vacant units recorded in 2014. Vacant units

within the zone could now accommodate around 2,000 sq.m gross.

5.39 The North Circular Action Area Plan (October 2014) identifies 20 potential development

opportunities, many of which are identified as having potential for retail, commercial and

community uses as part of mixed use developments. The capacity for these types of uses is

indicated for the following sites:

1 Policy 14 – Western Gateway (sites 2, 3 and 4) 500 sq.m gross

2 Policy 15 – New Southgate Station (site 5) 800 sq.m gross

3 Policy 16 – Coppicewood Lodge Care Home (site 6) 1,500 sq.m gross

4 Policy 17 – Arnos Grove Station (site 7) 1,500 sq.m gross

Policy 22 – Bowes Road/Wilmer Way (site 11) 600 – 1,200 sq.m gross

5.40 The indicative delivery programme for this zone is shown in Table 5.7.

Table 5.7 Summary of Floorspace Capacity in South West Enfield (Zone 4)

By 2025 By 2030 By 2035



North Circular AAP sites - 5,500 - 5,500

Residual 2,671 172 4,694

5.41 Table 5.7 suggests under half the short term floorspace projections for South West Enfield (Zone

4) can be accommodated by the re-occupation of vacant shops. The delivery of AAP sites could

accommodate capacity up to 2030. Over 62% of the floorspace projection to 2035 could be

accommodated leaving a residual of 4,694 sq.m. This long term residual projection (up to 4,694

sq.m gross) may need to be redistributed to other parts of the Borough. However, given the

uncertainties regarding the impact of major development at Wood Green, it is too early to

quantify this potential shortfall.

5.42 Major expansion at Wood Green is not expected to reduce retail capacity within this zone from

12,194 sq.m gross to 9,029 sq.m gross in 2035. This impact would reduce the residual floorspace

from 4,694 sq.m to 1,529 sq.m in 2035.


Pg 21

Summary

5.43 In global terms, the projections suggest a requirement for 24,079 sq.m gross of retail floorspace

by 2025 (convenience goods, comparison goods and food/beverage). Vacant shop units (based

on 2014 levels) and commitments could accommodate 40% of this projection (around 9,650

sq.m gross). Short term masterplan proposals in Enfield Town could, if delivered, accommodate

around 5,000 sq.m gross and development at Meridian Water could also make a significant

contribution, say at least 3,000 sq.m gross.

Table 5.8 Summary of Floorspace Projections up to 2035 (SQ.M Gross)

Location 2017 to 2025 2025 to 2030 2030 to 2035 Total 2017 to 2035

Convenience Goods 5,175 3,282 3,518 11,975

Comparison Goods 14,996 15,226 16,355 46,577

Food/Beverage 3,909 2,645 3,095 9,649

Total 24,079 21,151 22,971 68,201


5.44 This approach would accommodate most, if not all, of the projected growth up to 2025. If major

expansions at Brookfield and Wood Green are implemented then the overall projection reduces

from 24,079 sq.m gross to 12,717 sq.m gross, and there would be no requirement to bring

forward short term masterplan proposals in Enfield Town until after 2025.

5.45 During the period 2025 to 2030, there should be an additional requirement for 21,151 sq.m

gross, but major expansions at Brookfield and Wood Green would reduce this figure to 14,908

sq.m gross.

5.46 Longer term development opportunities in Ponders End (3,500 sq.m), Enfield Town (2,950

sq.m), Meridian Water (2,000 sq.m) and the North Circular AAP sites (5,500 sq.m) could

collectively accommodate two thirds of this additional requirement (13,950 sq.m gross of 21,151

sq.m), or nearly all (94%) of the reduced requirement with Brookfield and Wood Green

expansions.

5.47 During the period 2030 to 2035, there could be an additional requirement for 22,971 sq.m

gross. The need to allocate further sites for this very long term expenditure growth should be

monitored and kept under review, particularly in relation to the impact of potential

developments at Wood Green and at Brookfield.

Appendix 1: Study Area and Methodology

Enfield Retail and Town Centres: Appendix 1: Study Area and Methodology


Retail Capacity Assessment – Methodology and Data

Price Base

All monetary values expressed in this study are at 2016 prices, consistent with Experian’s base

year expenditure figures for 2016 (Retail Planner Briefing Note 15, December 2017) which is the

most up to date information available.

Retail Expenditure

The level of available expenditure to support retailers is based on first establishing per capita

levels of spending for the study area population. Experian’s local consumer expenditure

estimates for comparison, convenience goods and food/beverage for each of the study area

zones for the year 2016 have been obtained.

Experian’s EBS national expenditure information (Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 15) has

been used to forecast expenditure within the study area. Experian’s forecasts are based on an

econometric model of disaggregated consumer spending. This model takes a number of macro-

economic forecasts (chiefly consumer spending, incomes and inflation) and uses them to

produce forecasts of consumer spending volumes, prices and value, broken down into separate

categories of goods. The model incorporates assumptions about income and price elasticities.

Experian’s EBS growth forecast rates for 2016 to 2019 reflect the current economic

circumstances and provide an appropriate growth rate for the short term (for convenience

goods: 0% for 2016 to 2017, -0.6% for 2017 to 2018 and -0.2% to 2019; for comparison goods:

+2.3% for 2016-2017, +0.9% for 2017-2018 and +2.1% for 2017; for food and beverage: +0.3%

for 2016-2017, -0.1% for 2017-2018 and +0.8% for 2017.

In the longer term it is more difficult to forecast year on year changes in expenditure. Experian’s

longer term growth average forecasts have been adopted i.e. 0.1% per annum for convenience

goods after 2019; 3.2% per annum growth for comparison goods after 2019; and food and

beverage 1.1% after 2019. These growth rates are relatively cautious when compared with past

growth rates, but in our view represent realistic forecast for future growth. These growth figures

relate to real growth and exclude inflation.

Special Forms of Trading (SFT) or non-store activity is included within Experian’s Goods Based

Expenditure (GBE) estimates. SFT includes other forms of retail expenditure not spent in shops

e.g. mail order sales, some internet sales, vending machines, party plan selling, market stalls

and door to door selling. SFT needs to be excluded from retail assessments because it relates to

expenditure not spent in shops and does not have a direct relationship with the demand for

retail floorspace. The growth in home computing, internet connections and interactive TV may

lead to a growth in home shopping and may have effects on retailing in the high street. Experian

provides projections for special forms of trading and e-tailing. This Experian information

suggests that non-store retail sales in 2016 was:

• 9.6% of convenience goods expenditure; and

• 18.0% of comparison goods expenditure.

Experian predicts that these figures will increase in the future. However, Experian recognises

that not all of this SFT expenditure should be excluded from a retail capacity analysis, because

some of it relates to internet sales through traditional retail businesses, rather than internet

companies. The turnover attributable to e-tail through retail businesses is included in the

company average turnovers, and therefore expenditure figures should not exclude this

expenditure. Experian has provided adjusted deductions for SFT and projections. These

projections have been used to exclude only e-tail expenditure attributed to non-retail


businesses, which will not directly impact on the demand for retail floorspace. The adjusted

figures suggest that SFT sales in 2016 were:

• 2.9% of convenience goods expenditure; and

• 13.5% of comparison goods expenditure.

The projections provided by Experian suggest that these percentages could increase to 5.1% and

17.8% by 2031 respectively. These figures have been adopted in this assessment.

Home/electronic shopping has also emerged with the increasing growth in the use of personal

computers and the internet. This study makes an allowance for future growth in e-tailing based

on Experian projections. It will be necessary to monitor the amount of sales attributed to home

shopping in the future in order to review future policies and development allocations.

On-line shopping has experienced rapid growth since the late 1990s but in proportional terms

the latest available data suggests it remains a relatively low percentage of total retail

expenditure. Experian state that they expect that the SFT market share will continue to grow,

however the pace of e-commerce growth will moderate markedly after 2022.

The implications on the demand for retail space are unclear. For example, some retailers

operate on-line sales from their traditional retail premises e.g. food store operators. Therefore,

growth in on-line sales may not always mean there is a reduction in the need for retail

floorspace. Given the uncertainties relating to internet shopping and the likelihood that it will

increase in proportional terms, this assessment has adopted relatively cautious growth

projections for retail expenditure.

Market Shares/Penetration Rates

To assess the capacity for new retail floorspace, penetration rates are estimated for shopping

facilities within the study area. The assessment of penetration rates are based on a range of

factors but primarily information gathered through the March 2014 household survey.

The total turnover of shops and food/beverage outlets within Enfield Borough is estimated

based on penetration rates. For convenience goods shopping turnover estimates are then

compared to average company benchmark or average sales floorspace densities derived from

Global Data information, which provide an indication of how individual retail stores and centres

are performing against expected turnover averages. This allows the identification of potential

surplus or deficit capacity for retail sales floorspace.

Benchmark Turnover Levels

Company average turnover to sales floorspace densities are available for major food store

operators and are compiled by Global Data. Company average sales densities (adjusted to

exclude petrol and comparison sales and include VAT) have been applied to the sales area of the

large food stores, and a benchmark turnover for each store has been calculated. This

benchmark turnover is not necessarily the actual turnover of the food store, but it does provide a

useful benchmark for assessing existing shopping patterns and the adequacy of current

floorspace in quantitative terms.

Changes in convenience goods sales areas between 2014 and 2017 have been derived from a

combination of the Institute of Oxford Retail Consultants (ORC) StorePoint database, Valuation

Office data and the Council’s land use surveys. Estimates for comparison sales floorspace within

large food stores has been deducted, for consistency with the use of goods based expenditure

figures.


Increases in Turnover Densities

Experian’s Retail Planner Briefing Note 15, December 2017 indicates comparison goods retail

sales floorspace is expected to increase its sales density by 1.3% in 2017; 0.9% in 2018; 1.8% in

2019; by 2.3% per annum between 2020 and 2024; and 2.2% per annum beyond 2024. These

increase have been adopted and will absorb some of the future expenditure growth.

For convenience goods Experian anticipate broadly static sales densities. Experian does not

provide projections for food and beverage sales densities. An average growth rate of 1% per

annum has been adopted, consistent with the 2014 study.

Appendix 2: Convenience Goods Capacity

Enfield Retail and Town Centres: Appendix 2: Convenience Goods Capacity

Table 1: Study Area Population

Zone 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 57,107 59,302 61,353 64,889 65,740 67,524

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 81,223 83,542 85,648 86,956 88,773 92,068

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 85,463 88,102 91,507 100,308 110,693 114,723

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 100,858 104,703 108,302 111,926 113,889 118,548

Zone 5 - Barnet East 63,305 64,465 64,333 64,683 65,666 69,013

Zone 6 - Haringey North 104,846 110,207 113,024 119,138 125,192 129,557

Zone 7 - Waltham Forest West 60,177 62,267 63,903 66,213 69,636 71,603

Total 552,979 572,588 588,070 614,113 639,589 663,036

Sources: GLA 2016 Based Projections

Local authority population projections - Trend projections, Long migration scenario

Distribution based on GLA 2016 Ward Based Projections

Table 2: Convenience Goods Expenditure per person (£)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 2,139 2,111 2,106 2,106 2,110

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 1,618 1,596 1,593 1,592 1,595

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 1,543 1,523 1,519 1,519 1,522

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 2,134 2,106 2,102 2,101 2,105

Zone 5 - Barnet East 2,080 2,053 2,048 2,048 2,051

Zone 6 - Haringey North 1,625 1,604 1,600 1,600 1,603

Zone 7 - Waltham Forest West 1,920 1,894 1,890 1,889 1,893

Experian local estimates for 2016 convenience goods expenditure per capita (2016 prices)

Growth Rates: 2016-17 = 0%; 2017-18 = -0.6%; 2018-19 = -0.2% and 0.1% p.a. beyond 2019

Excludes Special Forms of Trading

Table 3: Total Convenience Goods Expenditure (£m)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 126.86 129.53 136.67 138.43 142.45

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 135.13 136.72 138.48 141.34 146.86

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 135.94 139.34 152.39 168.12 174.56

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 223.48 228.12 235.21 239.28 249.53

Zone 5 - Barnet East 134.10 132.07 132.48 134.46 141.57

Zone 6 - Haringey North 179.12 181.28 190.65 200.28 207.65

Zone 7 - Waltham Forest West 119.52 121.05 125.14 131.57 135.54

Total 1054.16 1068.10 1111.02 1153.49 1198.15

Source: Tables 1 and 2


Table 4: Base Year Convenience Goods Market Shares (%)

Area Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 % Inflow

Enfield Town 32.4% 18.2% 1.7% 6.9% 0.9% 7.3% 1.1% 5.0%

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 22.8% 3.6% 0.0% 2.0% 2.8% 0.7% 1.9% 5.0%

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 19.6% 48.7% 12.8% 8.6% 1.0% 3.5% 3.8% 5.0%

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 1.0% 13.0% 59.9% 1.7% 0.0% 11.9% 3.2% 15.0%

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 14.1% 5.4% 9.1% 72.7% 17.1% 5.5% 0.2% 5.0%

LB Enfield Total 89.9% 88.9% 83.5% 91.9% 21.8% 28.9% 10.2%

LB Barnet 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 3.1% 44.8% 3.2% 0.4% n/a

Broxbourne 4.3% 8.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.2% 5.9% n/a

LB Haringey 1.2% 0.0% 13.5% 4.1% 28.9% 62.0% 0.5% n/a

Waltham Forest 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 75.4% n/a

Other 2.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 4.5% 3.5% 7.6% n/a

Other Sub-Total 10.1% 11.1% 16.5% 8.1% 78.2% 71.1% 89.8% n/a

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014, LB Haringey Retail and Town Centres Study 2013 and Lichfield adjustments

Table 5: Base Year 2017 Convenience Goods Expenditure (£m)

Area Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 % Inflow Total

Expenditure 2017 126.86 135.13 135.94 223.48 134.10 179.12 119.52 1054.16

Enfield Town 41.10 24.59 2.31 15.42 1.21 13.08 1.31 5.21 104.24

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 28.92 4.86 0.00 4.47 3.75 1.25 2.27 2.40 47.94

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 24.87 65.81 17.40 19.22 1.34 6.27 4.54 7.34 146.79

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 1.27 17.57 81.43 3.80 0.00 21.31 3.82 22.80 152.00

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 17.89 7.30 12.37 162.47 22.93 9.85 0.24 12.27 245.31

LB Enfield Total 114.05 120.13 113.51 205.38 29.23 51.76 12.19 50.01 696.28

LB Barnet 2.16 0.41 0.27 6.93 60.08 5.73 0.48 n/a 76.05

Broxbourne 5.46 11.49 1.36 1.56 0.00 2.15 7.05 n/a 29.07

LB Haringey 1.52 0.00 18.35 9.16 38.76 111.05 0.60 n/a 179.44

Waltham Forest 0.00 0.00 0.82 0.00 0.00 2.15 90.12 n/a 93.09

Other 3.68 3.11 1.63 0.45 6.03 6.27 9.08 n/a 30.25

Other Sub-Total 12.81 15.00 22.43 18.10 104.87 127.35 107.33 n/a 407.90

TOTAL 126.86 135.13 135.94 223.48 134.10 179.12 119.52 n/a 1104.18

Source: Table 3 and 4


Table 6: Future 2020 Convenience Goods Expenditure (£m)


Expenditure 2020 129.53 136.72 139.34 228.12 132.07 181.28 121.05 1068.10

Enfield Town 41.97 24.88 2.37 15.74 1.19 13.23 1.33 5.30 106.01





LB Enfield Total 116.44 121.54 116.35 209.65 28.79 52.39 12.35 50.93 708.44

LB Barnet 2.20 0.41 0.28 7.07 59.17 5.80 0.48 n/a 75.41

Broxbourne 5.57 11.62 1.39 1.60 0.00 2.18 7.14 n/a 29.50

LB Haringey 1.55 0.00 18.81 9.35 38.17 112.39 0.61 n/a 180.88


Other 3.76 3.14 1.67 0.46 5.94 6.34 9.20 n/a 30.52


TOTAL 129.53 136.72 139.34 228.12 132.07 181.28 121.05 n/a 1119.04




Expenditure 2025 136.67 138.48 152.39 235.21 132.48 190.65 125.14 1111.02

Enfield Town 44.28 25.20 2.59 16.23 1.19 13.92 1.38 5.52 110.31





LB Enfield Total 122.87 123.11 127.24 216.16 28.88 55.10 12.76 53.62 739.75

LB Barnet 2.32 0.42 0.30 7.29 59.35 6.10 0.50 n/a 76.29

Broxbourne 5.88 11.77 1.52 1.65 0.00 2.29 7.38 n/a 30.49

LB Haringey 1.64 0.00 20.57 9.64 38.29 118.20 0.63 n/a 188.97


Other 3.96 3.19 1.83 0.47 5.96 6.67 9.51 n/a 31.59


TOTAL 136.67 138.48 152.39 235.21 132.48 190.65 125.14 n/a 1164.64





Expenditure 2030 138.43 141.34 168.12 239.28 134.46 200.28 131.57 1153.49

Enfield Town 44.85 25.72 2.86 16.51 1.21 14.62 1.45 5.64 112.87





LB Enfield Total 124.45 125.65 140.38 219.90 29.31 57.88 13.42 56.32 767.31

LB Barnet 2.35 0.42 0.34 7.42 60.24 6.41 0.53 n/a 77.70

Broxbourne 5.95 12.01 1.68 1.67 0.00 2.40 7.76 n/a 31.49

LB Haringey 1.66 0.00 22.70 9.81 38.86 124.18 0.66 n/a 197.86


Other 4.01 3.25 2.02 0.48 6.05 7.01 10.00 n/a 32.82


TOTAL 138.43 141.34 168.12 239.28 134.46 200.28 131.57 n/a 1209.81




Expenditure 2035 142.45 146.86 174.56 249.53 141.57 207.65 135.54 1198.15

Enfield Town 46.15 26.73 2.97 17.22 1.27 15.16 1.49 5.84 116.83





LB Enfield Total 128.06 130.56 145.76 229.31 30.86 60.01 13.83 58.47 796.87

LB Barnet 2.42 0.44 0.35 7.74 63.42 6.64 0.54 n/a 81.56

Broxbourne 6.13 12.48 1.75 1.75 0.00 2.49 8.00 n/a 32.59

LB Haringey 1.71 0.00 23.57 10.23 40.91 128.74 0.68 n/a 205.84


Other 4.13 3.38 2.09 0.50 6.37 7.27 10.30 n/a 34.04


TOTAL 142.45 146.86 174.56 249.53 141.57 207.65 135.54 n/a 1256.63



Table 10: Convenience Goods Floorspace and Benchmark Turnover 2017

Centre Store

Sales

Floorspace

(sq.m net)

Convenience

Goods Floorspace

(%)

Convenience

Goods Floorspace

(sq.m net)

Turnover Density

(£ per sq.m)

Total Turnover

(£m)

Enfield Town Area Waitrose, Palace Gardens SC 1,572 90% 1,415 £13,042 £18.45

Marks & Spencer (food hall) 854 100% 854 £11,283 £9.64

Marks & Spencer Enfield RP 702 95% 667 £11,283 £7.52

Tesco, Southbury Road 2,211 90% 1,990 £12,221 £24.32

Morrisons, Southbury Road 3,659 90% 3,293 £12,369 £40.73

Sainsbury's Crown Road 4,964 80% 3,971 £11,068 £43.95

Lidl, Cecil Road 965 85% 820 £8,661 £7.10

Other Enfield Town 780 100% 780 £6,500 £5.07

Local centres/parades near Enfield Town 2,425 100% 2,425 £6,500 £15.76

Sub-Total 18,132 16,215 £172.55

Edmonton Green Area Iceland, North Square 443 95% 395 £6,451 £2.55

Asda, West Mall 4,404 75% 3,303 £13,317 £43.99

Lidl, The Concourse 869 85% 739 £8,661 £6.40

Home Bargains 958 30% 287 £4,000 £1.15

Other Edmonton Green centre 2,213 100% 2,213 £6,500 £14.38

Local centres/parades near Edmonton Green 392 100% 392 £6,500 £2.55

Sub-Total 9,279 7,329 £71.01

Upper (Angel) Edmonton Tesco Extra, Glover Drive 4,635 75% 3,476 £12,221 £42.48

Tesco Express, Fore Street 250 90% 225 £12,221 £2.75

Lidl, Sterling Way 1,496 85% 1,272 £8,661 £11.01

Other Upper Edmonton 1,767 100% 1,767 £6,500 £11.49

Local centres/parades near Upper Edmonton 498 100% 498 £6,500 £3.24

Sub-Total 8,646 7,238 £70.97

Palmers Green Iceland, Green Lanes 617 95% 505 £6,451 £3.26

Waitrose, Green Lanes 1,807 90% 1,626 £13,042 £21.21

Morrisons, Aldermans Hill 2,350 85% 1,998 £12,369 £24.71

Other Palmers Green/Aldemans Hill 2,200 100% 2,200 £6,500 £14.30

Sub-Total 6,974 6,329 £63.48

Southgate Asda, Chase Side 5,427 70% 3,799 £13,317 £50.59

Tesco Express, Chase Side 235 95% 223 £12,221 £2.73

Marks & Spencer, Winchmore Hill Road 975 95% 926 £11,283 £10.45

Other Southgate 995 100% 995 £6,500 £6.47

Sub-Total 7,632 5,943 £70.24

Other LB Enfield Aldi, Enfield Retail Park 1,265 80% 1,012 £11,145 £11.28

Asda, High Street, Ponders End 953 90% 858 £13,317 £11.42

Co-op, Cockfosters Parade 345 95% 328 £10,298 £3.38

Co-op, Hertford Road 210 95% 200 £10,298 £2.05

Co-op, Lancaster Road 307 95% 292 £10,298 £3.00

Co-op, Lavender Hill Enfield 76 95% 72 £10,298 £0.74

Co-op, Leighton Road 179 95% 170 £10,298 £1.75

Lidl, Crown Road 1,029 80% 823 £8,661 £7.13

Little Waitrose, Windmill Hill, Enfield Chase 445 95% 423 £13,042 £5.51

Marks & Spencer, Cockfosters Road 116 95% 110 £11,283 £1.24

Marks & Spencer, Mollison Avenue 116 95% 110 £11,283 £1.24

Sainsbury's Local Arnos Grove 179 95% 170 £11,068 £1.88

Sainsbury's Local Clock Parade London Road 296 95% 281 £11,068 £3.11

Sainsbury's Local Green Lanes 260 95% 247 £11,068 £2.73

Sainsbury's Local Lancaster Road 244 95% 232 £11,068 £2.57

Sainsbury's Local St Mark's Road 209 95% 199 £11,068 £2.20

Sainsbury's Local, Cockfosters 169 95% 161 £11,068 £1.78

Sainsbury's, Florey Square, Winchmore Hill 1,464 95% 1,391 £11,068 £15.39

Sainsbury's, Green Lanes, Winchmore Hill 4,476 80% 3,581 £11,068 £39.63

Tesco Express, Enfield Island Centre Way 194 95% 184 £12,221 £2.25

Tesco Express, Green Lanes, Winchmore Hill 193 95% 183 £12,221 £2.24

Tesco Express, Hertford Road 175 95% 166 £12,221 £2.03

Tesco, High Street, Ponders End 5,622 70% 3,935 £12,221 £48.09

Other Local Shops - Large Local Centres 8,414 100% 8,414 £6,000 £50.48

Other Local Shops - Small Local Centres 1,298 100% 1,298 £6,000 £7.79

Other Local Shops - Local Shopping Parades 2,895 100% 2,895 £6,000 £17.37

Sub-Total 31,129 27,734 £248.31

LB Enfield Total 81,792 70,789 £9,840 £696.56

Source: LB Enfield Land Use Survey 2014, Storepoint 2017 and Global Data 2017


Table 11: Summary of Convenience Goods Expenditure 2017 to 2035

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Available Expenditure in LB Enfield (£m)

Enfield Town 104.24 106.01 110.31 112.87 116.83





Total 696.28 708.44 739.75 767.31 796.87

Turnover of Existing Facilities (£m)

Enfield Town 104.24 104.24 104.24 104.24 104.24





Total 696.28 696.28 696.28 696.28 696.28

Surplus Expenditure (£m)

Enfield Town 0.00 1.77 6.07 8.63 12.59





Total 0.00 10.39 37.40 62.41 87.99

Source: Tables 5 to 10


Table 12: Convenience Goods Floorspace Expenditure Capacity 2017 to 2035

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Turnover Density New Floorspace (£ psm net) £12,000 £12,000 £12,000 £12,000 £12,000

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m net)

Enfield Town 0 148 506 719 1,049

Zone 1 - Enfield North West 0 65 240 313 457

Zone 2 - Enfield North East 0 197 638 1,050 1,547

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 0 260 1,190 2,291 2,859

Zone 4 - Enfield South West 0 344 1,049 1,546 2,470

Total 0 1,013 3,622 5,920 8,382

Floorspace Requirement (sq.m gross)

Enfield Town 0 211 723 1,027 1,499


Zone 2 - Enfield North East 0 281 911 1,500 2,209

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 0 372 1,700 3,273 4,085


Total 0 1,448 5,175 8,457 11,975

Appendix 3: Comparison Goods Capacity

Enfield Retail and Town Centres: Appendix 3: Comparison Goods Capacity


Zone 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 63,305 64,465 64,333 64,683 65,666 69,013



Total 552,979 572,588 588,070 614,113 639,589 663,036




Table 2: Comparsion Goods Expenditure per person (£)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 3,428 3,576 4,131 4,824 5,626



Experian local estimates for 2016 comparison goods expenditure per capita (2016 prices)

Growth Rates: 2016-17 = 2.3%; 2017-18 = 0.9%; 2018-19 = -2.1% and 3.2% p.a. beyond 2019

Excludes Special Forms of Trading

Table 3: Total Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 220.99 230.06 267.20 316.76 388.27



Total 1571.76 1683.03 2024.18 2448.57 2961.38



Table 4: Base Year Comparison Goods Market Shares (%)

Zone/Area Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 % Inflow

Enfield Town 45.5% 45.9% 22.2% 25.8% 11.7% 6.2% 8.9% 5.0%

Zone 1 - Cockfosters 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0%

Zone 2 - Ponders End 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 2 18.2% 20.9% 7.0% 6.7% 1.7% 2.4% 2.5% 15.0%

Zone 3 - Edmonton Green 0.3% 3.9% 30.9% 1.6% 0.6% 4.2% 0.0% 5.0%

Zone 3 - Upper (Angel) Edmonton 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 3 1.1% 1.5% 8.8% 4.0% 1.4% 3.2% 2.4% 15.0%

Zone 4 - Palmers Green 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 7.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 5.0%

Zone 4 - Southgate 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 4 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0%

LB Enfield Total 70.7% 74.8% 71.6% 55.8% 19.6% 18.1% 14.0%

LB Barnet 4.6% 1.3% 1.0% 12.5% 56.9% 5.4% 2.0% n/a

Broxbourne 5.2% 10.5% 1.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.6% n/a

LB Haringey 0.1% 4.7% 14.7% 8.8% 9.0% 57.7% 1.3% n/a


Central London 11.9% 5.7% 5.2% 17.0% 9.1% 12.6% 7.1% n/a

Other 7.4% 2.3% 3.7% 3.3% 4.7% 5.1% 20.3% n/a


TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014 with Lichfields adjustments


Table 5: Base Year 2017 Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m)


Expenditure 2017 212.54 179.71 171.70 372.88 220.99 232.84 181.10 1571.76

Enfield Town 96.71 82.49 38.12 96.20 25.86 14.44 16.12 19.47 389.39

Zone 1 - Cockfosters 3.61 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 4.59

Other Zone 1 0.85 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.44 0.00 0.36 0.11 2.13

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.06 4.31 1.20 1.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 8.89

Other Zone 2 38.68 37.56 12.02 24.98 3.76 5.59 4.53 22.43 149.55

Zone 3 - Edmonton Green 0.64 7.01 53.06 5.97 1.33 9.78 0.00 4.09 81.87

Zone 3 - Upper (Angel) Edmonton 0.00 0.00 1.37 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.08 1.69

Other Zone 3 2.34 2.70 15.11 14.92 3.09 7.45 4.35 8.81 58.76

Zone 4 - Palmers Green 1.28 0.00 1.55 29.08 0.88 1.16 0.00 1.79 35.74

Zone 4 - Southgate 2.98 0.18 0.34 20.51 7.29 3.03 0.00 1.81 36.13

Other Zone 4 2.13 0.18 0.17 13.42 0.66 0.47 0.00 0.90 17.93

LB Enfield Total 150.26 134.42 122.94 208.07 43.31 42.14 25.35 60.16 786.67

LB Barnet 9.78 2.34 1.72 46.61 125.74 12.57 3.62 n/a 202.38

Broxbourne 11.05 18.87 1.72 8.58 0.88 0.70 8.33 n/a 50.13

LB Haringey 0.21 8.45 25.24 32.81 19.89 134.35 2.35 n/a 223.30


Central London 25.29 10.24 8.93 63.39 20.11 29.34 12.86 n/a 170.16

Other 15.73 4.13 6.35 12.31 10.39 11.87 36.76 n/a 97.54


TOTAL 212.54 179.71 171.70 372.88 220.99 232.84 181.10 n/a 1631.92



Table 6: Future 2020 Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m)


Expenditure 2020 229.39 192.19 186.04 402.36 230.06 249.10 193.89 1683.03

Enfield Town 104.37 88.22 41.30 103.81 26.92 15.44 17.26 20.91 418.23


Other Zone 1 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.46 0.00 0.39 0.11 2.28

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.15 4.61 1.30 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.48 9.55

Other Zone 2 41.75 40.17 13.02 26.96 3.91 5.98 4.85 24.11 160.75



Other Zone 3 2.52 2.88 16.37 16.09 3.22 7.97 4.65 9.48 63.20


Zone 4 - Southgate 3.21 0.19 0.37 22.13 7.59 3.24 0.00 1.93 38.67

Other Zone 4 2.29 0.19 0.19 14.48 0.69 0.50 0.00 0.97 19.31

LB Enfield Total 162.18 143.76 133.20 224.52 45.09 45.09 27.14 64.68 845.66

LB Barnet 10.55 2.50 1.86 50.29 130.90 13.45 3.88 n/a 213.44

Broxbourne 11.93 20.18 1.86 9.25 0.92 0.75 8.92 n/a 53.81

LB Haringey 0.23 9.03 27.35 35.41 20.71 143.73 2.52 n/a 238.98



Other 16.97 4.42 6.88 13.28 10.81 12.70 39.36 n/a 104.43


TOTAL 229.39 192.19 186.04 402.36 230.06 249.10 193.89 n/a 1747.71



Table 7A: Future Year Comparison Goods Market Shares (%) - Without Brookfield and Wood Green


Enfield Town 45.2% 45.9% 22.2% 25.3% 8.9% 3.6% 8.9% 5.0%


Other Zone 1 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0%

Zone 2 - Ponders End 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 2 18.2% 20.9% 7.0% 6.7% 1.7% 2.4% 2.5% 15.0%



Other Zone 3 1.1% 1.5% 8.8% 4.0% 1.4% 3.2% 2.4% 15.0%


Zone 4 - Southgate 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 5.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 4 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0%

LB Enfield Total 70.3% 74.8% 71.6% 55.3% 16.5% 15.5% 14.0%

LB Barnet 5.0% 1.3% 1.0% 13.0% 60.0% 8.0% 2.0% n/a

Broxbourne 5.2% 10.5% 1.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.6% n/a

LB Haringey 0.1% 4.7% 14.7% 8.8% 9.0% 57.7% 1.3% n/a



Other 7.4% 2.3% 3.7% 3.3% 4.7% 5.1% 20.3% n/a


TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014 with Lichfields adjustments for Brent Cross


Table 7B: Future Year Comparison Goods Market Shares (%) - With Brookfield and Wood Green


Enfield Town 43.3% 44.4% 21.9% 25.2% 7.3% 3.1% 8.9% 3.0%


Other Zone 1 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 5.0%

Zone 2 - Ponders End 0.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 2 17.2% 20.0% 7.0% 6.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.5% 13.0%



Other Zone 3 1.1% 1.5% 8.8% 3.9% 1.3% 2.8% 2.4% 15.0%


Zone 4 - Southgate 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0% 5.0%

Other Zone 4 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 5.0%

LB Enfield Total 67.3% 72.3% 71.3% 54.1% 14.5% 13.8% 14.0%

LB Barnet 5.0% 1.3% 1.0% 13.0% 60.0% 8.0% 2.0% n/a

Broxbourne 8.2% 13.0% 1.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.7% 4.6% n/a

LB Haringey 0.1% 4.7% 15.0% 10.0% 11.0% 59.0% 1.3% n/a



Other 7.4% 2.3% 3.7% 3.3% 4.7% 5.1% 20.3% n/a


TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014 with Lichfields adjustments for Wood Green, Brent Cross and Brookfield


Table 8A: Future 2025 Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m) - Without Brookfield and Wood Green

Centre/Facility Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 % Inflow Total

Expenditure 2025 280.25 225.41 235.58 480.35 267.20 303.32 232.07 2024.18

Enfield Town 126.67 103.46 52.30 121.53 23.78 10.92 20.65 24.17 483.49


Other Zone 1 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.53 0.00 0.46 0.14 2.74

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.40 5.41 1.65 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 11.43

Other Zone 2 51.01 47.11 16.49 32.18 4.54 7.28 5.80 29.01 193.43



Other Zone 3 3.08 3.38 20.73 19.21 3.74 9.71 5.57 11.55 76.97


Zone 4 - Southgate 3.64 0.23 0.47 26.42 8.28 3.94 0.00 2.26 45.25

Other Zone 4 2.80 0.23 0.24 17.29 0.80 0.61 0.00 1.16 23.12

LB Enfield Total 197.02 168.61 168.67 265.63 44.09 47.02 32.49 77.07 1,000.59

LB Barnet 14.01 2.93 2.36 62.44 160.32 24.27 4.64 n/a 270.97

Broxbourne 14.57 23.67 2.36 11.05 1.07 0.91 10.68 n/a 64.30

LB Haringey 0.28 10.59 34.63 42.27 24.05 175.02 3.02 n/a 289.86



Other 20.74 5.18 8.72 15.85 12.56 15.47 47.11 n/a 125.63

Other Sub-Total 83.23 56.80 66.90 214.71 223.11 256.31 199.58 n/a 1,100.66

TOTAL 280.25 225.41 235.58 480.35 267.20 303.32 232.07 n/a 2101.25

Source: Table 3 and 7A


Table 8B: Future 2025 Comparison Goods Expenditure (£m) - With Brookfield and Wood Green


Expenditure 2025 280.25 225.41 235.58 480.35 267.20 303.32 232.07 2024.18

Enfield Town 121.35 100.08 51.59 121.05 19.51 9.40 20.65 13.72 457.35


Other Zone 1 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.48 0.53 0.00 0.46 0.12 2.44

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.40 5.18 1.65 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.56 11.20

Other Zone 2 48.20 45.08 16.49 31.70 4.28 5.76 5.80 23.51 180.83



Other Zone 3 3.08 3.38 20.73 18.73 3.47 8.49 5.57 11.20 74.66


Zone 4 - Southgate 3.64 0.23 0.47 24.98 8.02 3.34 0.00 2.14 42.81

Other Zone 4 2.80 0.23 0.24 16.33 0.53 0.61 0.00 1.09 21.83

LB Enfield Total 188.61 162.97 167.97 259.87 38.74 41.86 32.49 60.43 952.94

LB Barnet 14.01 2.93 2.36 62.44 160.32 24.27 4.64 n/a 270.97

Broxbourne 22.98 29.30 2.36 11.05 1.07 2.12 10.68 n/a 79.55

LB Haringey 0.28 10.59 35.34 48.03 29.39 178.96 3.02 n/a 305.62



Other 20.74 5.18 8.72 15.85 12.56 15.47 47.11 n/a 125.63


TOTAL 280.25 225.41 235.58 480.35 267.20 303.32 232.07 n/a 2084.61

Source: Table 3 and 7B




Expenditure 2030 331.55 268.72 303.57 570.75 316.76 372.20 285.01 2448.57

Enfield Town 149.86 123.34 67.39 144.40 28.19 13.40 25.37 29.05 581.00


Other Zone 1 1.33 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.63 0.00 0.57 0.16 3.26

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.66 6.45 2.13 2.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 13.77

Other Zone 2 60.34 56.16 21.25 38.24 5.38 8.93 7.13 34.84 232.28



Other Zone 3 3.65 4.03 26.71 22.83 4.43 11.91 6.84 14.19 94.60


Zone 4 - Southgate 4.31 0.27 0.61 31.39 9.82 4.84 0.00 2.70 53.93

Other Zone 4 3.32 0.27 0.30 20.55 0.95 0.74 0.00 1.38 27.50

LB Enfield Total 233.08 201.00 217.36 315.63 52.27 57.69 39.90 93.19 1,210.12

LB Barnet 16.58 3.49 3.04 74.20 190.06 29.78 5.70 n/a 322.84

Broxbourne 17.24 28.22 3.04 13.13 1.27 1.12 13.11 n/a 77.11

LB Haringey 0.33 12.63 44.63 50.23 28.51 214.76 3.71 n/a 354.79



Other 24.53 6.18 11.23 18.83 14.89 18.98 57.86 n/a 152.51


TOTAL 331.55 268.72 303.57 570.75 316.76 372.20 285.01 n/a 2541.76





Expenditure 2030 331.55 268.72 303.57 570.75 316.76 372.20 285.01 2448.57

Enfield Town 143.56 119.31 66.48 143.83 23.12 11.54 25.37 16.49 549.70


Other Zone 1 0.99 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.63 0.00 0.57 0.15 2.91

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.66 6.18 2.13 2.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.67 13.49

Other Zone 2 57.03 53.74 21.25 37.67 5.07 7.07 7.13 28.23 217.19



Other Zone 3 3.65 4.03 26.71 22.26 4.12 10.42 6.84 13.77 91.80


Zone 4 - Southgate 4.31 0.27 0.61 29.68 9.50 4.09 0.00 2.55 51.01

Other Zone 4 3.32 0.27 0.30 19.41 0.63 0.74 0.00 1.30 25.97

LB Enfield Total 223.13 194.28 216.45 308.78 45.93 51.36 39.90 73.21 1,153.05

LB Barnet 16.58 3.49 3.04 74.20 190.06 29.78 5.70 n/a 322.84

Broxbourne 27.19 34.93 3.04 13.13 1.27 2.61 13.11 n/a 95.27

LB Haringey 0.33 12.63 45.54 57.08 34.84 219.60 3.71 n/a 373.72



Other 24.53 6.18 11.23 18.83 14.89 18.98 57.86 n/a 152.51


TOTAL 331.55 268.72 303.57 570.75 316.76 372.20 285.01 n/a 2521.78





Expenditure 2035 397.18 325.04 366.95 692.91 388.27 449.24 341.80 2961.38

Enfield Town 179.53 149.19 81.46 175.31 34.56 16.17 30.42 35.09 701.72


Other Zone 1 1.59 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.78 0.00 0.68 0.20 3.94

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.99 7.80 2.57 3.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 16.65

Other Zone 2 72.29 67.93 25.69 46.42 6.60 10.78 8.54 42.05 280.30

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



Other Zone 3 4.37 4.88 32.29 27.72 5.44 14.38 8.20 17.16 114.43


Zone 4 - Southgate 5.16 0.33 0.73 38.11 12.04 5.84 0.00 3.27 65.48

Other Zone 4 3.97 0.33 0.37 24.94 1.16 0.90 0.00 1.67 33.34

LB Enfield Total 279.22 243.13 262.73 383.18 64.06 69.63 47.85 112.59 1,462.40

LB Barnet 19.86 4.23 3.67 90.08 232.96 35.94 6.84 n/a 393.57

Broxbourne 20.65 34.13 3.67 15.94 1.55 1.35 15.72 n/a 93.01

LB Haringey 0.40 15.28 53.94 60.98 34.94 259.21 4.44 n/a 429.19



Other 29.39 7.48 13.58 22.87 18.25 22.91 69.38 n/a 183.86


TOTAL 397.18 325.04 366.95 692.91 388.27 449.24 341.80 n/a 3073.98





Expenditure 2035 397.18 325.04 366.95 692.91 388.27 449.24 341.80 2961.38

Enfield Town 171.98 144.32 80.36 174.61 28.34 13.93 30.42 19.92 663.88


Other Zone 1 1.19 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.78 0.00 0.68 0.18 3.52

Zone 2 - Ponders End 1.99 7.48 2.57 3.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 16.31

Other Zone 2 68.32 65.01 25.69 45.73 6.21 8.54 8.54 34.07 262.11



Other Zone 3 4.37 4.88 32.29 27.02 5.05 12.58 8.20 16.66 111.05


Zone 4 - Southgate 5.16 0.33 0.73 36.03 11.65 4.94 0.00 3.10 61.94

Other Zone 4 3.97 0.33 0.37 23.56 0.78 0.90 0.00 1.57 31.47

LB Enfield Total 267.31 235.00 261.63 374.86 56.30 61.99 47.85 88.47 1,393.42

LB Barnet 19.86 4.23 3.67 90.08 232.96 35.94 6.84 n/a 393.57

Broxbourne 32.57 42.26 3.67 15.94 1.55 3.14 15.72 n/a 114.85

LB Haringey 0.40 15.28 55.04 69.29 42.71 265.05 4.44 n/a 452.21



Other 29.39 7.48 13.58 22.87 18.25 22.91 69.38 n/a 183.86


TOTAL 397.18 325.04 366.95 692.91 388.27 449.24 341.80 n/a 3049.85



Table 11A: Summary of Comparison Goods Expenditure 2017 to 2035 (£M) - Without Brookfield and Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Available Expenditure in LB Enfield

Enfield Town 389.39 418.23 483.49 581.00 701.72





Total 786.67 845.66 1,000.59 1,210.12 1,462.40

Turnover of Existing Facilities

Enfield Town 389.39 405.17 453.95 506.14 564.32





Total 786.67 818.54 917.10 1,022.52 1,140.06

Surplus/Deficit Expenditure

Enfield Town n/a 13.06 29.54 74.87 137.41

Zone 1 - Enfield North West n/a 0.24 0.93 1.66 2.76

Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 5.44 20.16 40.12 67.35

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 5.31 23.31 51.44 79.67

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 3.07 9.56 19.51 35.15

Total n/a 27.12 83.49 187.60 322.34

Soucres: Tables 5 to 11A


Table 11B: Summary of Comparison Goods Expenditure 2017 to 2035 (£M) - With Brookfield and Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Available Expenditure in LB Enfield

Enfield Town 389.39 418.23 457.35 549.70 663.88





Total 786.67 845.66 952.94 1,153.05 1,393.42

Turnover of Existing Facilities

Enfield Town 389.39 405.17 453.95 506.14 564.32





Total 786.67 818.54 917.10 1,022.52 1,140.06

Surplus/Deficit Expenditure

Enfield Town n/a 13.06 3.40 43.57 99.56

Zone 1 - Enfield North West n/a 0.24 0.63 1.31 2.34

Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 5.44 7.32 24.75 48.81

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 5.31 21.00 48.65 76.29

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 3.07 3.49 12.26 26.35

Total n/a 27.12 35.83 130.53 253.36

Soucres: Tables 5 to 11B


Table 12A: Comparison Goods Floorspace Capacity 2017 to 2035 - Without Brookfield and Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Turnover Density New Floorspace (£ psm net) 6,367 6,625 7,423 8,276 9,228


Enfield Town n/a 1,971 3,979 9,046 14,891

Zone 1 - Enfield North West n/a 36 125 201 299

Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 822 2,716 4,848 7,299

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 801 3,140 6,216 8,634

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 463 1,288 2,357 3,809

Total n/a 4,093 11,247 22,667 34,933


Enfield Town n/a 2,628 5,305 12,061 19,855


Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 1,096 3,621 6,463 9,732

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 1,068 4,186 8,287 11,512

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 618 1,717 3,142 5,079

Total n/a 5,458 14,996 30,222 46,577

Table 12B: Comparison Goods Floorspace Capacity 2017 to 2035 - With Brookfield and Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Turnover Density New Floorspace (£ psm net) 6,367 6,625 7,423 8,276 9,228


Enfield Town n/a 1,971 458 5,264 10,790


Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 822 986 2,990 5,290

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 801 2,829 5,878 8,267

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 463 470 1,481 2,855

Total n/a 4,093 4,828 15,771 27,457


Enfield Town n/a 2,628 610 7,019 14,386


Zone 2 - Enfield North East n/a 1,096 1,315 3,987 7,053

Zone 3 - Enfield South East n/a 1,068 3,772 7,837 11,023

Zone 4 - Enfield South West n/a 618 627 1,975 3,807

Total n/a 5,458 6,437 21,029 36,609


Pg 1

Appendix 4: Food/Beverage Capacity


Pg 2


Zone 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 63,305 64,465 64,333 64,683 65,666 69,013



Total 552,979 572,588 588,070 614,113 639,589 663,036




Table 2: Food and Drink Expenditure per person (£)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035


Zone 2 - Enfield North East 704 717 758 804 854

Zone 3 - Enfield South East 640 651 689 731 776


Zone 5 - Barnet East 1,499 1,527 1,614 1,713 1,818

Zone 6 - Haringey North 863 878 928 986 1,046


Experian local estimates for 2016 food and beverage expenditure per capita (2016 prices)

Growth Rates: 2016-17 = 0.3%; 2017-18 = -0.1%; 2018-19 = -0.8%; 2019-24 = 1.1% p.a.and 1.2% beyond 2024

Table 3: Total Food and Drink Expenditure (£m)

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 96.66 98.21 104.40 112.50 125.50



Total 611.62 638.81 702.42 771.11 849.09



Pg 3

Table 4: Base Year 2017 Food and Drink Market Shares (%)


Enfield Town 47.2% 57.9% 28.9% 9.9% 10.9% 9.4% 4.9% 5.0%





LB Enfield Total 64.9% 70.5% 68.5% 60.2% 28.7% 18.5% 5.7%

Other 35.1% 29.5% 31.5% 39.8% 71.3% 81.5% 94.3% n/a

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014 and Lichfield adjustments

Table 5: Base Year 2017 Food and Drink Expenditure (£m)


Expenditure 2017 81.90 58.82 56.38 157.53 96.66 95.06 65.26 611.62

Enfield Town 38.66 34.06 16.29 15.60 10.54 8.94 3.20 6.70 133.97





LB Enfield Total 53.16 41.47 38.62 94.83 27.74 17.59 3.72 14.59 291.71

Other 28.75 17.35 17.76 62.70 68.92 77.48 61.54 n/a 352.10

TOTAL 81.90 58.82 56.38 157.53 96.66 95.06 65.26 n/a 643.81


Table 6: Future 2020 Food and Drink Expenditure (£m)


Expenditure 2020 86.27 61.39 59.61 165.88 98.21 99.25 68.19 638.81

Enfield Town 40.72 35.55 17.23 16.42 10.70 9.33 3.34 7.02 140.31





LB Enfield Total 55.99 43.28 40.84 99.86 28.19 18.36 3.89 15.28 305.69

Other 30.28 18.11 18.78 66.02 70.02 80.89 64.30 n/a 366.75

TOTAL 86.27 61.39 59.61 165.88 98.21 99.25 68.19 n/a 672.44



Pg 4

Table 7: Future Food and Drink Market Shares (%)


Enfield Town 47.2% 57.9% 28.9% 9.5% 9.7% 6.6% 4.9% 5.0%





LB Enfield Total 64.9% 70.5% 68.5% 58.0% 24.0% 13.5% 5.7%

Other 35.1% 29.5% 31.5% 42.0% 76.0% 86.5% 94.3% n/a

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014 and Lichfield adjustments for Wood Green

Table 8A: Future 2025 Food and Drink Expenditure (£m) - Without Wood Green


Expenditure 2025 96.46 65.90 69.09 181.25 104.40 110.61 74.70 702.42

Enfield Town 45.53 38.16 19.97 17.94 11.38 10.40 3.66 7.74 154.78





LB Enfield Total 62.61 46.46 47.33 109.11 29.96 20.46 4.26 16.85 337.04

Other 33.86 19.44 21.76 72.14 74.44 90.15 70.44 n/a 402.35

TOTAL 96.46 65.90 69.09 181.25 104.40 110.61 74.70 n/a 739.39


Table 8B: Future 2025 Food and Drink Expenditure (£m) - With Wood Green


Expenditure 2025 96.46 65.90 69.09 181.25 104.40 110.61 74.70 702.42

Enfield Town 45.53 38.16 19.97 17.22 10.13 7.30 3.66 7.47 149.43





LB Enfield Total 62.61 46.46 47.33 105.13 25.06 14.93 4.26 16.09 321.86

Other 33.86 19.44 21.76 76.13 79.34 95.68 70.44 n/a 417.53

TOTAL 96.46 65.90 69.09 181.25 104.40 110.61 74.70 n/a 739.39



Pg 5



Expenditure 2030 103.74 71.41 80.93 195.77 112.50 123.38 83.39 771.11

Enfield Town 48.96 41.35 23.39 19.38 12.26 11.60 4.09 8.48 169.50





LB Enfield Total 67.32 50.35 55.44 117.85 32.29 22.83 4.75 18.46 369.29

Other 36.41 21.07 25.49 77.92 80.21 100.55 78.64 n/a 442.41

TOTAL 103.74 71.41 80.93 195.77 112.50 123.38 83.39 n/a 811.70




Expenditure 2030 103.74 71.41 80.93 195.77 112.50 123.38 83.39 771.11

Enfield Town 48.96 41.35 23.39 18.60 10.91 8.14 4.09 8.18 163.62





LB Enfield Total 67.32 50.35 55.44 113.54 27.00 16.66 4.75 17.63 352.70

Other 36.41 21.07 25.49 82.22 85.50 106.72 78.64 n/a 459.00

TOTAL 103.74 71.41 80.93 195.77 112.50 123.38 83.39 n/a 811.70




Expenditure 2035 113.10 78.62 89.03 216.30 125.50 135.53 91.02 849.09

Enfield Town 53.38 45.52 25.73 21.41 13.68 12.74 4.46 9.31 186.24





LB Enfield Total 73.40 55.42 60.99 130.21 36.02 25.07 5.19 20.33 406.63

Other 39.70 23.19 28.04 86.09 89.48 110.45 85.83 n/a 487.14

TOTAL 113.10 78.62 89.03 216.30 125.50 135.53 91.02 n/a 893.78



Pg 6



Expenditure 2035 113.10 78.62 89.03 216.30 125.50 135.53 91.02 849.09

Enfield Town 53.38 45.52 25.73 20.55 12.17 8.94 4.46 8.99 179.75





LB Enfield Total 73.40 55.42 60.99 125.45 30.12 18.30 5.19 19.41 388.28

Other 39.70 23.19 28.04 90.85 95.38 117.23 85.83 n/a 505.49

TOTAL 113.10 78.62 89.03 216.30 125.50 135.53 91.02 n/a 893.78


Table 11A: Summary of Food and Drink Expenditure (£M) - Without Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035


Enfield Town 133.97 140.31 154.78 169.50 186.24





Total 291.71 305.69 337.04 369.29 406.63


Enfield Town 133.97 138.03 145.07 152.47 160.25





Total 291.71 300.55 315.88 331.99 348.93


Enfield Town 0.00 2.28 9.70 17.03 25.98





Total 0.00 5.14 21.16 37.30 57.71

Source: Tables 5 to 10A


Pg 7

Table 11B: Summary of Food and Drink Expenditure (£M) - With Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035


Enfield Town 133.97 140.31 149.43 163.62 179.75





Total 291.71 305.69 321.86 352.70 388.28


Enfield Town 133.97 138.03 145.07 152.47 160.25





Total 291.71 300.55 315.88 331.99 348.93


Enfield Town 0.00 2.28 4.36 11.15 19.49




Zone 4 - Enfield South West 0.00 2.20 -1.52 2.98 10.13

Total 0.00 5.14 5.98 20.70 39.36

Source: Tables 5 to 10B

Table 12A: Food and Drink Floorspace Capacity - Without Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Turnover Density New Floorspace (£ psm gross) 5,000 5,152 5,414 5,690 5,981


Enfield Town 0 442 1,792 2,992 4,345





Total 0 998 3,909 6,554 9,649


Pg 8

Table 12B: Food and Drink Floorspace Capacity - With Wood Green

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035



Enfield Town 0 442 805 1,959 3,259




Zone 4 - Enfield South West 0 427 -280 524 1,693

Total 0 998 1,105 3,638 6,580

Table 12: Food and Drink Floorspace Capacity

Area 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035



Enfield Town 0 442 805 1,959 3,259




Zone 4 - Enfield South West 0 427 -280 524 1,693

Total 0 998 1,105 3,638 6,580

Appendix 5: Cinema Capacity

Enfield Retail and Town Centres: Appendix 5: Cinema Capacity


Zone 2014 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 63,305 64,465 64,333 64,683 65,666 69,013



Total 552,979 572,588 588,070 614,113 639,589 663,036




Table 2: Cinema Trips per annum

Zone 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035





Zone 5 - Barnet East 193,395 192,999 194,049 196,998 207,039



Total 1,717,764 1,764,210 1,842,339 1,918,767 1,989,108

Source: Table 1 and 3.0 trips per person per annum in London, South East and East of England (British Film Institute)

Table 3: Cinema Market Share of Trips (%)


LB Enfield 86.9% 93.4% 76.7% 51.0% 21.9% 23.2% 69.8% 10.0%

LB Barnet 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 57.8% 6.1% 0.0% n/a

LB Haringey 0.9% 4.3% 21.0% 18.8% 12.3% 47.8% 1.7% n/a


Other 0.0% 1.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 4.3% 24.1% n/a

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% n/a

Source: NEMS Household Survey March 2014


Table 4: Base Year Cinema Trip Patterns in 2017


Trips 2017 177,906 250,626 264,306 314,109 193,395 330,621 186,801 1,717,764

LB Enfield 154,600 234,085 202,723 160,196 42,354 76,704 130,387 111,228 1,112,276

LB Barnet 8,717 0 0 76,014 111,782 20,168 0 n/a 216,682

LB Haringey 1,601 10,777 55,504 59,052 23,788 158,037 3,176 n/a 311,935

Central London 12,987 1,754 3,965 14,449 13,538 61,496 8,219 n/a 116,408

Other 0 4,010 2,114 4,398 1,934 14,217 45,019 n/a 71,692

TOTAL 177,906 250,626 264,306 314,109 193,395 330,621 186,801 n/a 1,828,992


Table 5: Future Cinema Trip Patterns in 2020


Trips 2020 184,059 256,944 274,521 324,906 192,999 339,072 191,709 1,764,210

LB Enfield 159,947 239,986 210,558 165,702 42,267 78,665 133,813 114,549 1,145,486

LB Barnet 9,019 0 0 78,627 111,553 20,683 0 n/a 219,883

LB Haringey 1,657 11,049 57,649 61,082 23,739 162,076 3,259 n/a 320,511


Other 0 4,111 2,196 4,549 1,930 14,580 46,202 n/a 73,568

TOTAL 184,059 256,944 274,521 324,906 192,999 339,072 191,709 n/a 1,878,759




Trips 2025 194,667 260,868 300,924 335,778 194,049 357,414 198,639 1,842,339

LB Enfield 169,166 243,651 230,809 171,247 42,497 82,920 138,650 119,882 1,198,821

LB Barnet 9,539 0 0 81,258 112,160 21,802 0 n/a 224,760

LB Haringey 1,752 11,217 63,194 63,126 23,868 170,844 3,377 n/a 337,378


Other 0 4,174 2,407 4,701 1,940 15,369 47,872 n/a 76,463

TOTAL 194,667 260,868 300,924 335,778 194,049 357,414 198,639 n/a 1,962,221





Trips 2030 197,220 266,319 332,079 341,667 196,998 375,576 208,908 1,918,767

LB Enfield 171,384 248,742 254,705 174,250 43,143 87,134 145,818 125,019 1,250,194

LB Barnet 9,664 0 0 82,683 113,865 22,910 0 n/a 229,122

LB Haringey 1,775 11,452 69,737 64,233 24,231 179,525 3,551 n/a 354,504


Other 0 4,261 2,657 4,783 1,970 16,150 50,347 n/a 80,168

TOTAL 197,220 266,319 332,079 341,667 196,998 375,576 208,908 n/a 2,043,786




Trips 2035 202,572 276,204 344,169 355,644 207,039 388,671 214,809 1,989,108

LB Enfield 176,035 257,975 263,978 181,378 45,342 90,172 149,937 129,424 1,294,240

LB Barnet 9,926 0 0 86,066 119,669 23,709 0 n/a 239,369

LB Haringey 1,823 11,877 72,275 66,861 25,466 185,785 3,652 n/a 367,739


Other 0 4,419 2,753 4,979 2,070 16,713 51,769 n/a 82,704

TOTAL 202,572 276,204 344,169 355,644 207,039 388,671 214,809 n/a 2,118,532




Trips 2040 209,082 283,956 352,131 370,674 212,859 396,183 217,254 2,042,139

LB Enfield 181,692 265,215 270,084 189,044 46,616 91,914 151,643 132,912 1,329,121

LB Barnet 10,245 0 0 89,703 123,033 24,167 0 n/a 247,148

LB Haringey 1,882 12,210 73,948 69,687 26,182 189,375 3,693 n/a 376,977


Other 0 4,543 2,817 5,189 2,129 17,036 52,358 n/a 84,072

TOTAL 209,082 283,956 352,131 370,674 212,859 396,183 217,254 n/a 2,175,051



Table 9: Cinema Seat Capacity

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035

Cinema Trips per annum 1,112,276 1,145,486 1,198,821 1,250,194 1,294,240

Number of Trips Per Seat (per annum) 210 210 210 210 210

Cinema Seat Potential 5,297 5,455 5,709 5,953 6,163

Existing Cinema Seats in LB Enfield 5,691 5,691 5,691 5,691 5,691

Seat Capacity -394 -236 18 262 472

Sources: Tables 4 to 8 and UK Cimemas and the British Film Institute

Documents

Enfield Retail and Town Centres Need Assessment Update