Engine Expo 2008 · across test cycles; • Most sources differ in conversion rates Engine Expo 2008 Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 2007. CO 2 Emissions from

Engine Expo 2008

Light Vehicle Powertrains – Production and

Technology for Global Markets

Alex Woodrow

Knibb, Gormezano and Partners

Stuttgart, 6 May 2008

Contents

• Global Production Trends

• Drivers

– Emissions

– CO2

– Consumer Requirements

• Technology Roadmap

• Barriers

– Sulphur

• Developed vs Developing Markets

– North America

– Western Europe

– Japan

– BRICS

Engine Expo 2008

Global Sales and Production Trends

• Asia and Central and Eastern

Europe account for most growth

between 2006 and 2014

• Credit crunch, recession and

fuel prices have downward

impact on forecast

88

66

2006

0

Africa

13

Asia

0

Middle

East

14

E.

Europe

1

South

America

1

North

AmericaW.

Europe

2014

Total

Engine Expo 2008

Source: J. D. Power Automotive Forecasting

Global Light Vehicle Production (Millions 2006-2014)

Global Emissions

• Major driver for development over past 10

years

• Standards focused around US, European

and Japanese levels;

– US most stringent, with Japan and Europe

catching up;

– Varies between diesel and gasoline;

– Drives up fuel consumption and cost;

– Most gasoline will continue with three-way

catalyst (TWC), diesels with mix of DeNOx

catalyst, DPF and SCR on larger vehicles

Engine Expo 2008

Global Emissions Compliance

EPA Tier II -

2007-2009

EPA Tier II or

EU IV 2010

EU IV 2009

(Proconve)

EU V 2009

EU VI 2014

EU IV 2006 Diesel,

2008 Gasoline

EU IV 2007 Diesel

ULEV Gasoline 2006Japan 2009

Metro EU IV 2010

EU III 2010

(Bharat)

EU III 2005/08

EU IV 2007/10

EU III 2007

EU IV 2010

EPA

EU

VARIES

JAPAN

Engine Expo 2008*EPA Durability 190,000km, Euro V 100/160,000km,

(NB Some variation between diesel and gasoline legislation with phase in periods)

Production Cost Increments – Noxious

Emissions

Incremental costs to meet

emissions legislation

– Gasoline EU V vs EU

III $250

– Diesel EU V vs

Gasoline EU V $750

Source: KGP Global Light Vehicle Engine Production 2006 Engine Expo 2008

Diesel

100

Euro III

Euro IV

Euro V

250

250

Gasoline

150

Global Emissions Compliance Shares

Engine Expo 2008

5%26%

27%

Japan 069%

Euro IV 28%

Euro III

Euro II

EPA Tier II

EPA Tier I

3%

EPA Tier I/Euro IV

2%

NB Shares are only approximations

Euro II is Euro II or less

38%

5%

Japan 09

7%

Euro VI

24%

Euro IV

Euro III

EPA Tier II/Euro V2%

EPA Tier II

24%

2007 2015

CO2 and Fuel Economy Standards

• Most markets that are

regulated have fuel

economy standards;

• Difficult to compare

across test cycles;

• Most sources differ in

conversion rates

Engine Expo 2008

Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 2007

CO2 Emissions from the new fleet

• Looking at the impact of CO2 km x sales and

distances travelled (Billions g);

• Assumes static distances travelled

Engine Expo 2008

40

66677891016

91

UKItalyOtherGermanyCanada

2007

JapanUS OthersBrazilFranceChina

30

655598810

35

86

UKItalyOtherGermanyCanada

2015

JapanUS OthersBrazilFranceChina

NB Shares are only approximations

Market Drivers

Mobility

Cost

Developed Markets

Fuel Economy

Image

Comfort

Purchase Price

Performance

Features

Reliability

Service Cost

Purchase Price

Fuel Economy

Features

Durability

Comfort

Performance

Reliability

Developing Markets

Ease of

Maintenance

Compliance

Engine Expo 2008

Comfort

Dieselisation

Engine Expo 2008

30.429.729.228.227.226.025.024.123.6

20152011 2012

Global

2009 2013 2014201020082007

60.261.262.262.662.461.861.159.958.3

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015

W Europe

20132012 2014

11.4

9.7

8.3

6.8

5.54.6

3.83.43.1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015

NAFTA

20132012 2014

Diesel share of light vehicle sales (%)

• Diesel share likely to increase globally

• Forecast sensitive to diesel vs

gasoline differential and long-term fuel

prices

• Hybrids in comparison accounted for

0.5% of light vehicles globally in 2007

and 2% in the US

Fuel Prices

• Fuel price is a key driver

• Long term forecast uncertain –

other than upwards

• China only major market to

subsidise fuel prices

• Diesel share forecast sensitive

to diesel price, particularly in

North America, where a

significant gap has opened

– US gasoline $0.96, diesel $1.12

– Current prices UK gasoline

$2.2, diesel $2.4 per litre

Engine Expo 200868% of US voters polled said gas prices were there top concern.

0.59

0.07

1.49

1.33

0.61

1.38

1.73

0.69

0.53

0.16

1.56

1.48

0.69

1.55

1.63

0.63

France

Italy

Saudi Arabia

Normal’ price

USA

UK

Germany

China

November 2006 Fuel Prices ($ litres)Source: GTZ

G D

Alternative Fuels

• Likely to become more economically feasible as

fossil fuel prices increase;

• Need to move away from food-source based 1st

generation fuels to prevent increased food prices;

• Uncertainty over global requirements, particularly

in relation to EU Bio-Fuels mandate;

• Brazil and US are major markets for alternate

fuels;

• CNG adoption mixed – particularly attractive in

Middle East and adopted in India;

Engine Expo 2008

Emissions

2005 2010 2015 2020

Fuel Economy

Waste Heat

Recovery

AMTs Wet DCT

Dry DCT6AT RWD

6AT FWD7AT 8AT

Low friction lubricantReduced friction 5Cs

Weight reduced 5Cs

Thermal Efficiency

Gasoline 30%

Diesel 40%

Thermal Efficiency

Gasoline 40%

Diesel 45%

Thermal Efficiency

Gasoline 40%

Diesel 50%

Downsized TC (80ps

litre)

2 Cylinder Downsized

Engines (100ps litre)3

rd Gen CR DI Diesel

Spray Guided GDI

DeNOx Catalysts

SCR

IVT/EVT

HCCI

Synthetic Fuels

DeNOx Catalysts

Improved DPF

Japan FE target

EU 130g CO2

US Revised

CAFE

On-demand pumps

On-demand cooling

EGR

Internal EGR

Cooled EGR

VGTTwin TC

Variable Intake

Manifolds

Balance ShaftsActive Engine MountsDMF

In-wheel Motor

Camless EngineVariable timing and

lift

Sealed for life engine

Re-generative braking

Stop-start

Cylinder Deactivation

Full Hybrid

Atkinson Cycle

Miller Cycle

Plug-In Hybrids

Supercapacitor

hybrids

E85

B30

CNG

B10

E10

OBD

Low Cost DI Gasoline

Electric Ancilliary

Drive

Belt vs chain drive

In Cylinder Pressure

SensingExtended Service

Intervals

DPF

Lithium Ion Batteries

Increasing Useful

Life for emissions

AT – 190k km USA

Engine Blocks

Materials Al, Mg

Plastic intake

systems Plastic oil pan

Piezo Injection

Zeroshift

Future

Transmission

Technologies

Stepped

CVTs

2nd

Gen Bio-Fuels

Variable Compression

Ratio

Technology Roadmaps – Developed Markets

Engine Expo 2008

Technology Roadmaps – Developed Markets

Engine Expo 2008

Cost, Complexity, Performance

Increasing systems integration

Which or

these become

cost effective

for lowest cost

vehicles, and

when

?

Sulphur

15 & Below*

>500 - 2000

Conflicting/Missing Data

>2000 - 5000

>5,000 & Above

>15 - 50

>50 - 500

* Information in parts per million (ppm)

Sulphur levels are maximum allowable as of September 2007. Source: UNEP

Engine Expo 2008

North America

• Fuel economy currently a very

hot topic;

• Major market for hybrids;

• Considerable investment in

diesels;

• High automatic share;

• Increasing transplant share;

• Opportunity for downsizing with

GDI and TC;

• Low sulphur diesel introduced

for 2007 HD standards

• Switch back from trucks to cars

also required, along with other

measures – weight reduction

etc.

Engine Expo 2008

Average Displacement 3600cc

Diesel Production Share 5.5% in 2007

Automatic Share >90%

Fuel Economy Std CAFE proposed

25mpg combined by

2020 (24.8 in 2007)

Key Technologies DISI TC, Stop-start,

6AT, DCT

Emissions Standards Tier II

Average Power 240ps

Key Market Characteristics

*Based on production volumes

Western Europe

• High diesel share; reaching

saturation?

• Focus on CO2 reduction, not clear

on how fleet average will be applied;

• Uncertainty over bio-fuels directive;

• Shift to central European production

– vehicles, increasingly engines;

• Widespread taxation incentives

(disincentives) based on

displacement and fuel type;

• Slowly growing hybrid share;

• Rapid uptake of stop start

technology;

• Suitability of powertrain technology

for global markets?

• Focus on engine downsizing and

stop-start, with other vehicle

measures including weight reduction

Engine Expo 2008


Diesel share 51% in 2007

Automatic Share 20%

Fuel Economy Std 130g CO2 by 2012

Key Technologies DISI TC, Stop-start,

DCT

Emissions Standards Euro IV

Average Power 128ps



Japan

• Most stringent fuel economy

target;

• Little diesel penetration;

• Hybrid’s appear too expensive;

• Significant penetration of

smaller (Kei) cars;

• High automatic share;

• FE target being tightened;

• Globalisation of manufacturing

and engine plants;

• Potential for stop start with

automatic?

• Next round of emissions

legislation in 2009;

• High export volume;

Engine Expo 2008


Diesel share 7% in 2007

Automatic Share 75%

Fuel Economy Std Weight based fuel

economy target for

2015

Key Technologies DI gasoline, stop-start

Emissions Standards Japanese standard

Average Power 136ps



Brazil

• High share of multi-fuel

vehicles;

• Limited exports outside region

and no domestic manufacturers;

• Very low automatic share.

Engine Expo 2008


Diesel share 3.7% in 2007

Automatic Share <2%

Fuel Economy Std None

Key Technologies Multi-Fuel FIE

Emissions Standards Euro III

Average Power 90ps



Russia

• Significant growth in sales

forecast;

• Large share of imported

vehicles, as domestic

manufacturers slow to respond

to products;

• Investment needed in modern

engines and transmissions;

• Low automatic share;

• Low diesel share;

• No fuel economy standards;

Engine Expo 2008



Automatic Share <5%

Domestic Mfrs <50% of sales


Key Technologies SMPI,TWC, CR DI

Emissions Standards Euro III

Average Power 94ps



India

• High share of domestic

manufacturers

• Increasing JV share

• Low automatic

• Low cost market

• Increasing diesel share

• Low automatic share, increasing

Engine Expo 2008



Automatic Share 10%



Emissions Standards Euro II/III

Average Power 66ps



China

• Massively increased production;

• Domestic and JV manufacturers

growing strongly;

• Investment in new engine

models required for many

manufacturers;

• Divergent needs of small car

market and mid-sized/premium

segments;

• Size based fuel economy

standard introduced;

• Increasing automatic share

• Low diesel share

Engine Expo 2008



Automatic Share 30%

Fuel Economy Std Weight based fuel

economy standard

introduced


6ATs, DCTs

Emissions Standards Euro III/IV

Average Power 106ps



Conclusions

• ‘No size fits all’

• Complex future technology roadmap for all

markets

• Low cost, durable requirements for

developing and developed markets

Contact Details

• Alex Woodrow, Director

• [email protected]

• www.kgpauto.com

• T: +44 (0) 1332 856301

Acknowledgements

Thanks to J. D. Power for use of their data

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.kgpauto.com/

Documents

Engine Expo 2008 · across test cycles; • Most sources differ in conversion rates Engine Expo 2008 Source: International Council on Clean Transportation 2007. CO 2 Emissions from