DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

Engineered Resilient System Design: Submarines in a new Era of Undersea Warfare

Presented by Dr. Joseph T. Arcano Technical Director – Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division

18th Annual NDIA Systems Engineering Conference

October 26th -29th , 2015 Springfield, VA

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited. 2/12

Preparing for the Next Generation Submarine

• The U.S. Navy shipbuilding plan starts construction of the next generation submarine in 2034

• Historical trends show that concept development needs to begin at least 10 years prior to construction start

• Technologies, people, processes, and design tools must be matured now if they are to support the future program

SSN 688

SSN 774

SSN 21

10 Years Construction Start

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• Future concepts of employment and technologies are yet to be defined • The global pace of technology development is accelerating • A Submarine Concept Team, with guidance from a PEOSUB chartered

Flag Oversight Board, is using a systems engineering approach to address this challenge and prepare for an Analysis of Alternatives

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A New Era in Undersea Warfare

Challenge &

Opportunity

Fixed Uncertain Requirements

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Defense Acquisition Guidebook - https://acc.dau.mil

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited. 4/12

Submarine Concept Team Design Process

Mission Engineering

War Game

Technology Screening

Submarine Concept Design

UUVs and other Payloads

Operational Assessment

Definition of System Capabilities

Ship & System Concept Development

Ship & System Evaluation

Future Threat

Assessment

Cost Assessment

Technical and Engineering Assessment

Tool Improvement and Technology Development Recommendations

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• A manual point-based design spiral approach is flexible and accurate, but very slow and manpower intensive

• Few design points can be evaluated, meaning limited understanding of requirement impacts

• Not ideal when requirements are uncertain or coupled

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The Classic Design Paradigm

Evans, J.H., ‘‘Basic design concepts,’’ Naval Engineers Journal, Vol. 21, pp. 671–679, 1959.

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• The goal of Design Space Exploration is to define a broader design trade space

• Increasing knowledge early reduces risk and cost • Design Space Exploration requires a significant investment

in tools, especially with regard to automating design synthesis

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Moving Toward Design Space Exploration

From limited investigation of relatively few design points

To robust investigation of concepts throughout the design space

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• RSDE is a Design Space Exploration tool for surface ships developed with long-term support from CREATE and ERS

• RSDE played a key part in the Small Surface Combatant Task Force and Analysis of Alternatives for the LX(R) amphibious assault ship

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The Rapid Ship Design Environment (RSDE)

Design Sustained Speed (kt)

SHIP 6 _ End Cost with Risk (TY13$)Area Available (m^2)

Service Life Weight Allowance (% FLD WT)

Weight Limit

Vehicle Carrying Capacity

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Feasible Region

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• RSDE capability needs to be extended to submarine design • The Design Space Exploration method will remain unchanged, but the

design synthesis, constraints and parameters will be different

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The Submarine Rapid Design Environment (SRDE)

Payload Fraction

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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

1. Design several baselines as starting points for Design Space Exploration

2. Determine design requirements and ranges for parameters, creating the bounds of the design space

3. Pick design points to evaluate using Design of Experiments 4. Run automated design synthesis and analysis tools to determine the

feasibility and characteristics of the sampled points 5. Conduct trade off analysis using design space visualization tools

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How RSDE Works

X: [min, max] Y: [min, max] Z: [min, max] U:=10 V:=12 T-V≤0

CREATE Funded RSDE ERS Funded Visualization

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• Pre-Milestone A decisions are very influential • Increased knowledge of the trade space from Design Space Exploration

enables well-informed early decisions and reduces risk regarding: 1. Requirements 2. Ship architecture 3. Concepts of employment 4. Military effectiveness 5. Technology selection and investment 6. Cost

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DSE’s Role in Acquisition

Defense Acquisition Guidebook - https://acc.dau.mil

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for Public Release; distribution is unlimited.

• Never been attempted before • No established automated design synthesis method • Compared to surface ships, submarine Design Space Exploration will

require: • Different priorities, technologies, and science • Different design constraints • Tighter coupling of design constraints • Higher minimum required fidelity levels

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Submarine DSE Presents Unique Challenges

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/our_ships.asp

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• High level visibility • Large return on investment • Demonstrable successes • Design decision aid that can be used by decision makers

The Navy is moving forward to develop this capability

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An Excellent Opportunity for the DoD