Enhancing Food Systems Resilience ANU 2018.pdf · •Soil degradation ... => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality ... wealthy nations consuming

John IngramFood Systems Programme Leader

Environmental Change InstituteUniversity of Oxford

Enhancing Food Systems Resilience

Challenges, Future Scenarios,and Research Avenues

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012)

… is universally applicable

… is more than food production

… is underpinned by food systems

Food Systems: Including a range of ‘Activities’

Material transformation

Value addition

Food System Activities underpin food security‘Outcomes’ …

Food Security, i.e. stability over time for:

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

•Affordability•Allocation•Preference

•Nutritional Value•Social Value•Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

•Production•Distribution•Exchange

“… when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food

preferences for an active and healthy life.”

EnvironmentalOutcomes

• Climate change• Water availability• Water quality• Biodiversity• Biogeochemistry• Soil degradation• …

SocioeconomicOutcomes

• Income• Employment • Health• Social capital• Political capital• Ethics• …

Food Systems: Also including a range ofother ‘Outcomes’

Trade-offs to be aware of!

Synergies to exploit!

Prevalence of hunger …% of world population

FAO, 2018

Overall global food security ‘situation’

Insufficient cals

Insufficient nutrs~ 1 billion

Insufficient nutrs?3 billion

Excess cals (incl. many

with insufficient nutrs)> 2.5 billion

Sufficient cals

Sufficient nutrs?3 billion

“Triple Burden of Malnutrition”

Different, overlapping forms of

malnutrition the ‘new normal’

(IFPRI 2015)

‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activitiesprocessing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, …

=> Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop

Productivity Diversity & Quality

Local, Regional & Global Production Activitiesfarming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, …

=> Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm

Constraints on dietary choice and diversityaffordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, …

=> Consumption by Sub-populations

Food System approach highlights roles of multiple actors

CONSUMERS

PRODUCERS

FOOD CHAIN ACTORS

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Insufficient cals

Insufficient nutrs

~ 1 billion

Sufficient cals

Insufficient nutrs

? 3 billion

Excess cals (incl. many

with insufficient nutrs)

> 2.5 billion

Sufficient cals

Sufficient nutrs

Food Systems Activities also have

varied impacts on natural resources

We also know the current global environmental ‘situation’

• Soil 33% degraded

• Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited

• Biodiversity 60% of loss

• Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished

And 24% of total GHG emissions

And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …

Links between human and animal prophylaxis, e.g. AMR

Increasing risk of disease emergence with the rapid changes at the A-H interface.

And we know the current concerns aboutanimal-human interactions

Child labour

Animal welfare

Workers rights

Inter-generational legacy

Food waste

Farmer welfare and safety

…

And we have a host of current ethical concerns

So what’s coming down the track?

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1626519_1373704,00.html


Marked regional differences in projected population growth

And marked regional differences in projected increasing wealth

Proportion of middle

class by region

Middle Class: $6,000-$30,000 p.a.

And we know that per capita daily dietary kCaldemand increases with wealth over time

Tilman and Clark, Nature 2014

Emerging trends:

Heat maps showing

the rates of

prescriptions for

type 2 diabetes in

2012 and 2015

Related news …

Looking ahead ...

“unless trends are

curbed, half the global

adult population will

be overweight in 15

years time”

1

2000

Billions of people

(indicative; not to scale)

2 3 4 5 76 8 109

2040

2018

2028

kcal

/per

son

/day

co

nsu

mp

tio

n

2000

The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under current food system practises and consumption trends are dire

Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and lost work days) currently 11% global GDP

Looking ahead…Extrapolated calorie consumption

The current global cost of the 425m diabetics is $825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated

Manage Demand

MeetDemand

Five qualitative descriptions

of future changes in:

• demographics

• human development

• economy and lifestyle

• policies and institutions

• technology

• environment and natural

resources

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS



FOOD AVAILABILITY


How high are the risks to different Food Security ‘Elements’ under different SSPs?

Availability

Poorer nations Wealthier nations Poorer nations Wealthier nations

SSP1: Sustainability

SSP2: Middle of the Road

SSP3: Regional Rivalry

SSP4: Inequality Key

SSP5: Fossil-fueled development VERY LOW RISK

LOW RISK

Availability MEDIUM RISK

HIGH RISK

Poorer nations Wealthier nations Poorer nations Wealthier nations VERY HIGH RISK




SSP4: Inequality

SSP5: Fossil-fueled development

Food production Food distribution

Inter-regional trade Intra-regional trade

‘Extending’ the SSPs to Food Availability

Brown et al., Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System. 2015. USDA

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS



FOOD AVAILABILITY


How high are the risks to different Food Security ‘Elements’ under different SSPs?

Access




SSP3: Regional Rivalry Key

SSP4: Inequality VERY LOW RISK

SSP5: Fossil-fueled development LOW RISK

MEDIUM RISK

HIGH RISK

Utilization VERY HIGH RISK





SSP4: Inequality

SSP5: Fossil-fueled development

Affordability

Food safety Nutritional content

Food allocation

‘Extending’ the SSPs to Food Access and Utilisation

Brown et al., Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System. 2015. USDA

Food System challenges are interconnected

against a background of stresses and shocks

natural resource depletion

and

many stagnating rural economies

and

changing climate

and

social and socio-cultural changes

To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanising population while minimising further environmental degradation

“The capacity over time of a food system and its units at multiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate and accessible food to all, in the face of various and even unforeseen disturbances.” – just relates to Food Security

So what is

‘Food System Resilience’?

Enhanced understanding needed to:

accommodate different perspectives looking at a common problem (esp. concerning multiple societal goals)

be based on use of evidence in a value-laden debate

Defining Resilience

4 Questions

1. Of what?

2. To what?

3. For whom?

4. Over what time period?

Adapted from: Helfgott, European Journal of Operational Research, 2017

Food System OUTCOMES

Food Utilisation

Food Access

Food Availability

Food SecuritySocial Welfare• Income• Employment • Health• Social capital• Political capital• Ethics• …

Environment• Climate change• Water availability• Water quality• Biodiversity• Biogeochemistry• Soil degradation• …

Food System

Activities

to deliver

Outcomes

1. Of what?

Adapted from: Ingram, Food Security, 2011

“Stream Trains” “Black Swans”

Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect

Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact

2. To what?

Food System Stresses and Shocks

2. To what?

Food System Stresses and Shocks

Stresspressure or tensionexerted on a system

[Steam Trains]

Shocksudden surprising event

affecting a system[Black Swans]

Demography Trade wars

Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results

Natural resource degradation Food scares

Climate Extreme weather

Urbanisation Conflict

Automation Geophysical events

Science & technology

Geopolitics

3. For whom?

Food system ‘actors’

Input industry

Farmers, fishermen

Con-summers

Waste process, sewage

Subsistence farmers

Retailers, food service

Food industry

Traders, processors

4. Over what time period?

• Short-term interruptions (usually due to shocks) to eg:

• Fishing or agricultural activities (due to e.g. extreme weather)

• Critical ingredient shortfall (due to e.g. disease outbreak)

• Just in time groceries delivery (due to e.g. IT malfunction)

• Consumer shopping patterns (due to e.g. food scares)

• Longer-term disruptions (usually due to stresses) to eg:

• Natural resource degradation

• Energy price

• Low-carbon emission regulations

• Change in dietary preferences

Growing volatility from stressors and shocks needs enhanced resilience

3 Resilience notions

1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to current outcome

2. Recovery Aim to return to current outcome after disruption

3. Re-orientation Accept alternative outcome after disruption(transformation)

All involve

Re-organisation Make changes to the system(adaptation)

Enhancing Resilience 1

Re-organise the Food System Activities

Do the “doing” words differently


Re-organise the Food System ‘Drivers’

Social: education, media, household structure, social movements, health care systems, …

Sci & Tech: farm inputs, food processing, food preparation, logistics and health technologies, …

Environmental: climate, soil, water, pollution, biodiversity, …

Policy: agri-environment schemes, nutrition, labour, health and safety, …

Markets: preference, market structure, competition, trade, …

Food System

Drivers

• Demography

• Economic

context

• Socio-political

context

• Cultural context

• Science &

Technology

• Environment

Adapted from: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015

FOOD

UTILISATION

FOOD

ACCESS

FOOD

AVAILABILITY

Food Security

Other Societal Interests

• Income

• Profit

• Rural development

• Employment

• Health

• Environment

• Landscape

• Ecosystem services

• Animal welfare

• …


Re-organise our ‘views’ on Food System Outcomes

Providing a healthy, affordable,

and environmentally-friendly diet

for all people will require a

radical transformation of the

system.

This will depend on:

better farming methods,

wealthy nations consuming

less meat and

countries valuing food which is

nutritious rather than cheap.

InterAcademy Partnership: 28 Nov 2018





Multiple motives/world views:

environment, animal welfare, health, cost, trendy, …

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

“enough for a particular purpose; as much as you need”

… OED



DRIVER

Interactions

Socioeconomic

DRIVERSChanges in:

Demographics, Economics,

Socio-political context,

Cultural context

Science & Technology

Environmental

DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric

Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality,

Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea level

‘Natural’

DRIVERS

e.g. Volcanoes

Solar cycles

Environmental feedbacks

e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity

Socioeconomic feedbacks

e.g. nutrition, business, political stability

Food

UtilisationFood

Access

Food

Availability

Food Security

A ‘Complex Adaptive System’Where to intervene, and who does what?

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Social Welfare

Environ-ment

Complex adaptive system, many interactive ‘drivers’ and feedbacks

Set of dynamic actors and activities

Interactive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes

Wide range of power and vested interests; fragmented governance

Confused terminology

However…

Many policy, fiscal, social and technical options for change

Multiple options for cooperation among actors

Many plausible futures

Why is it so hard to make progress?

Strong set of policy-related literature relating to different parts of the food system …

Of the ca. 45 UK government departments at least 20 directly relate to food security

Cabinet Office

The Charity Commission

Competition and Markets Authority

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Department for Education

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Department for Exiting the European Union

Department for International Development

Department for International Trade

Department for Transport

Department for Work and Pensions

Department of Health and Social Care

Food Standards Agency

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Home Office

Office of Rail and Road

UK Statistics Authority

UK Trade & Investment

Water Services Regulation Authority

… and food security issues can be ‘scattered’ across government

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social

access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and

food preferences for an active and healthy life.

To help policymakers and practitioners optimise

the resilience of the UK’s food system to

environmental, biological, economic, social and

geopolitical shocks.

£14.5m; 2016-2021;10 Projects

Resilience of the UK Food

System in a Global Context

http://www.bbsrc.ac.uk/

Current Situation: Increasing and systemic failings in food systems; increasing exposure to shocks and stresses

Upcoming Situation: Problems will be exacerbated unless more resilient food systems are developed and implemented

Managing the demand side of equation will help enhance resilience

More social, political and behavioral economics research Identify and promote entrepreneurial opportunities for

food system development Ensure workforce “tooled-up” in systems thinking

Summary:Today and Tomorrow

?



Documents

Enhancing Food Systems Resilience ANU 2018.pdf · •Soil degradation ... => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality ... wealthy nations consuming