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Enhancing Policy Decision Making with Large-Scale Digital Traces
Vanessa Frias-MartinezUniversity of Maryland
NFAIS, February 2014
Research Goal
To extract human behavioral information from mobile digital traces in order to assist decision makers in organizations working for social development
TOOLS
BEHAVIORAL INSIGHTS
Energy
RESEARCH DECISION MAKERS
Health
Education
Safety
Transportation
Interviews, surveys:
Information to assist on policy
decisions
Data MiningMachine LearningStatistical
MOBILE DIGITAL TRACES
To enhance or complement
information in an affordable manner
Call Detail Records
Anonymized
Granularity1-4km²
CDR: Caller | Callee | Date | Duration | Geolocation
Modeling Human Behavior
Consumption•Number calls, duration, frequency, SMS/MMS/voice•Expenses•Handset Type and Features
Social•Degree of the social network •Strength of the contacts (Reciprocity & Frequency)•Geography of the social contacts
Mobility•Mobility Patterns (Entropy)•Diameter of mobility•Radius of gyration (Home/Work)
Over 270 variables
Can the variables extracted from Call Detail Records be used as predictors of regional socioeconomic levels (SELs)?
Cost-effective Maps
NSI carries out surveys
Cell Phone Data
REDUCE COSTS
NSI surveys subset of regions
Forecasting Models
Predict the Present
Datasets
• Data for a city in Latin America (NSI)– 1200 regions (GUs)– SEL values from 0..100
• Call Detail Records– 6 months, 500K customers– City has 920 coverage areas– 279 variables per coverage area
Evaluation
• Call Records from 1st Jan till 31st May 2009– Compute mobility as different number of BTSs visited
• Stages– Medical Alert - Stage 1 (17th-27th April)– Closing Schools - Stage 2 (28th-1st May)– Suspension of Essential Activities - Stage 3 (1st May-6th May)
• Baselines– same periods, different year (2008)
Changes in Mobility
April 27th May 1st May 6th
Alert Closed Shutdown Reopen
Baseline
Mobility reduced between 10% and 30%
Alert Closed Suspension Reopen
Changes in Epidemic Spreading
Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)
Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours
Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10%
BASELINEK
Take Away Message
• Geolocated traces allow us to quantitatively – Model human behavior– Measure behavioral changes– Predict/Classify external sources of information
Future
• Enhance and complement the tools currently used by decision makers in organizations working for social good
– Use of open datasets, social media and other digital traces