Enlargement and social policy

Nick ManningUniversity of Nottingham, UK

nick.manning@nottingham.ac.uk

Key issues in session 1

• Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states

• Differences between old and new members• Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12

Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in the new member states

• Away from state socialism

• Towards neo-liberal, or not

• Cyclical swings

• Towards the ESM?

….. We need to look at “models”

What is social policy?… all models do this:

functions

• Production – human capital investment

• Reproduction – health and education

• Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty

… with a mix of these:Inputs• Direct Supply

• Finance

• Regulation

Outputs• Meeting needs - equity

• economic efficiency

• political stability

What is European social policy?

• From the “outside” • ESM• (Neo) Liberal• Productivist• Clientalist

• From the “inside” – • national welfare regimes

» Continental - equity

» Nordic – equity & efficiency

» Anglo - efficiency

» Mediterranean - neither

» Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency

ESM

• Social democratic - 1980s

• Neo-liberal - 2004

• Flexicurity – (back to) the future?

• Marshall’s hyphenated society: democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s

European social policy preferences

• A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and values

(Dauderstadt, 2002)• Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection(Daly, JCMS, 2006)• Equality• Non-discrimination• Solidarity• Redistribution(European Parliament, 2006)

How does social policy change?

• ESM’s triple transformation– Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender– European integration– European enlargement

• Constitutional asymmetry– European economic rules constrain national states– National states impede European SP, politically,

economically and culturally– New member states

Three ‘worlds of compliance’

• World of law observance (DK, SE, FI)– compliance even if difficult

• World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES, UK)– compliance if no other difficulties

• World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT)– non-compliance typical

• Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom– Leiber, S (2007) JESP

EU/enlargement and social policy change – some models

(1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself

elite civil/mass society

EU + +

Poland + +

EU - -

Turkey +/- -

(2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain)

• EU - a model

• means for political action

• establish a vision of preferred future

• grasp the means of realising the vision

• procedural and substantive change

(3) Policy transfers (most EU members)

• Adopted where they fit

• OECD advice routinely rejected

• values for or against

• networks of contacts

• definitions of the problem to solved

• Positive, instrumental or coercive?

(4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same?

• Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain

• per capita income

• social protection spending

• eurobarometer life satisfaction

(5) A “regulatory union”?

• Cost

• Prior systems

• Implementation (no worse than old members)

(6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now

• Cost

• Population size

(7) Cultural context

• Gender

• Family

• Religion

• Military

• Political roots

Differences between old and new members?

• Tax – is there a race to bottom?– no evidence for this

• Wages – level and dispersion– NME’s growing and dispersing

• Government spending – level and trends– Slow convergence in different cycles

Figure 1 Real GDP growth(figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001, Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for comparison)

Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio

Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12

• Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS• Social spending

– Health – continued variation– Pensions - this is complex– Education – continued variation

• Crime – not as bad as we think• Women – NMS better than many OMS• Minorities – highly varied across the EU• Migration – already slowing down• Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never?

– general convergence, but very, very slow

Race to bottom?

• low wage competition

• low social standards

• higher unemployment

Race to the top?

• Skilled workforce with high wages

• Good social protection

• Low unemployment