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ENSO update - OCOF 154 15 July 2020

ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

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Page 1: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

ENSO update - OCOF 154

15 July 2020

Page 2: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

ENSO Update

Page 3: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

June 2020 SSTs

Page 4: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

NINO SST anomalies (°C)

IndexMay2020

June2020

Latest weekly

NINO3 0.0 –0.4 –0.2

NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1

NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3

Weekly data for theweek ending 12/07/2020

Page 5: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profileBureau of Meteorology

Page 6: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile

Page 7: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

June 2020 Sea Level Anomaly

Page 8: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Ocean Currents at 9 July 2020

A

B

Page 9: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Southern Oscillation Index

At 12 July 2020: 30-day SOI = –1; 90-day SOI = –2

Page 10: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Equatorial Trade Winds

Page 11: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Equatorial Trade Winds

Equatorial Pacific

June

Page 12: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Madden-Julian Oscillation

ECMWF

NCEP

Page 13: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Satellite Rainfall

A B

C

Page 14: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Satellite Rainfall Anomaly

Units = mm per month

Page 15: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Model Rainfall Predictions (JAS)

Page 16: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Model Rainfall Predictions (JAS)

Page 17: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Model Rainfall Predictions (JJA)

Page 18: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Model Rainfall Predictions (JAS)

Page 19: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology
Page 20: ENSO update - OCOF 154 · NINO3.4 –0.1 –0.1 +0.1 NINO4 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Weekly data for the week ending 12/07/2020. Equatorial Pacific sub-surface profile Bureau of Meteorology

Climate Model Summary