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KLKMBOCLOJK@B LK PLJB JLOQDDB-@HBA PB@ROFQFBP.

7. FKK@FI FKPQFQRQFLKP DROKQBBFKD QEB JLOQDDB ILKP AFA KLQ ESB

QEB MMOLMOFQB @HFKD QL PRPQFK QEB IODB KRJBO LC ABCRIQP. EBPB

CFOJP QERP ILPQ DOLRKA, FK@IRAFKD LKB LC QEB IODBPQ DILI FKPROBOP,

(JBOF@K KQBOKQFLKI OLRM).

8. KV IODB DILI CFKK@FI FKPQFQRQFLKP B@JB FKPLISBKQ, OFKDFKD QEBTELIB CFKK@FI TLOIA QL QEB OFKH LC @LIIMPB KA EIQFKD QEB @OBAFQ

JOHBQP.

9. KAFSFARIP KA FKPQFQRQFLKP PR@E P KHP ILPQ @LKCFABK@B FK QEB FIFQV

LC LQEBO MOQFBP QL OBMV ILKP, @RPFKD @OBAFQ QL COBBWB RM.

10. LSBOKJBKQP EA QL DBQ FKQL QEB @QFLK KA FI JKV LC QEBPB

FKPQFQRQFLKP LRQ P IPQ OBPLOQ. EFP RKCOLWB QEB @OBAFQ JB@EKFPJ QEQ

MOLMBIP B@LKLJF@ @QFSFQV V BKIFKD IBKABOP QL IBKA DFK.

P TB @K PBB, PF@ I@H LC OFPH JKDBJBKQ (KA OBDRIQLOPi FKQQBKQFLK LO

FKFIFQV QL @LKQOLI QEBPB LSBOQ CFIROBP) IV Q QEB EBOQ LC QEB DILI @OBAFQ @OFPFP.EFP @OFPFP PQOQBA TFQE I@H LC FJMOLMBOIV RKABOTOFQQBK JLOQDDBP KA BU@BPPFSB

ABQ. LJMKFBP ABMBKA LK ILKP KA IFKBP LC @OBAFQ QL @LKAR@Q QEBFO OLRQFKB

RPFKBPP. C PR@E @OBAFQ IFKBP AOV RM, MOLAR@QFLK PILTP ALTK KA OFKDP QEB DILI

B@LKLJV QL QEB OFKH LC ABBM OB@BPPFLKeLO BSBK ABMOBPPFLK. EB PKLTIIFKD BCCB@Q

LC QEFP CFIROB QL JKDB QEB OFPH PPL@FQBA TFQE MOLSFAFKD JLOQDDB ILKP QL

RKNRIFCFBA ELJB RVBOP EP BBK MOLCLRKA, FKABBA. EB TLOIA FP FK DILI @OFPFP

ARB QL QEB MOBSFIFKD (FK)@QFLK V @LJMKFBP KA OBDRIQLOP TEL FDKLOBA KA

EMQBO 1 EB QROB LC FPH: LPPBP KA MMLOQRKFQFBP

12


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QEBOBV FK@OBPBA PLJB LC QEB JGLO OFPHP PPL@FQBA TFQE JLOQDDB ABCRIQP. EBK

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BSBOVQEFKD ILLHBA CFKB KA MOLCFQ LMMLOQRKFQFBP LRKABA. RQ TEQ DLBP RM JRPQ

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ABOFSQFSB FP CFKK@FI FKPQORJBKQ FPPRBA V LKB CFOJ, TEF@E DROKQBBP MVJBKQ

CLO @LKQO@QP LC KLQEBO MOQV. EB DROKQBBP OB MOLSFABA RKABO PB@LKA

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ABCRIQFKD LO DLFKD KHORMQeQEB PB@LKA @LKQO@Q DLBP FKQL BCCB@Q. EBK QEB

JLOQDDBP ABCRIQBA, QEB PRMMLPBA DROKQLO AFA KLQ ESB BKLRDE JLKBV QL MV

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QL ABCRIQ P TBII LK LQEBO LIFDQFLKP. EFP PKLTII BCCB@Q QEBK @RPBA LQEBOP QLABCRIQ, KA PL CLOQE. Q B@JB @EFK OB@QFLK QEQ DBKBOQBA DILI CFKK@FI

JOHBQ @LIIMPB. DSB QEB FIIRPFLK LC FKPROFKD QEB CFKK@FI OFPH LC QEB RKAIBA

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RKABOIFB II LC OFPH JKDBJBKQ.EFP I@H LC OFPH JKDBJBKQ @KKLQ B IJBA LK

I@H LC TOKFKD LC QEB OFPH ILKB. BDRIQLOP KA CFOJP TBOB TOKBA QL AEBOB QL

OFPH JKDBJBKQ MOL@BAROBP. LTBSBO, QEBPB TOKFKDP TBOB FDKLOBA FK MROPRFQ LC

MOLCFQ KA fCOBB JOHBQP.g BB fEB OPE: FPH KA BDRIQFLK, EQ BKQ OLKDg

V KQELKV FLI, IIBK HPEFJ, KA FII OBT, Washington Post, @QLBO 15,

2008, 01. BEJK OLQEBOP OBMOBPBKQBA QEB IODBPQ KHORMQ@V FK EFPQLOV, TEF@E

JBKQ QEQ QEB .. DLSBOKJBKQ (FK BPPBK@B) KQFLKIFWBA KHP KA FKPROK@B

DFKQ . EFP, FK QROK, HFIIBA II QOBBQ P TB MOBSFLRPIV HKBT FQ KA OLRDEQLRQ QEB OBPQOR@QROFKD LC DLSBOKJBKQiP OLIB FK PL@FBQV. B @K IV II LC QEFP Q QEB

CBBQ LC QEB FKSBPQJBKQ KHFKD FKARPQOV KA QEBFO FKABNRQB OFPH OB@LDKFQFLK KA

JKDBJBKQ. OLIV KL LQEBO OFPH-OBIQBA BSBKQ EP EA, KA TFII @LKQFKRB QL

ESB, P MOLCLRKA K FJM@Q TLOIATFAB P QEFP OFPH JKDBJBKQ CFIROB (KA QEFP

FK@IRABP QEB QBOOLOFPQ QQ@HP LC 9/11). JFCF@QFLKP LC QEFP OFPH JKDBJBKQ

CFIROB TFII B@EL CLO AB@ABP. Q TFII CCB@Q II SLQBOP KA QUMVBOP QEOLRDELRQ QEB

TLOIA KA MLQBKQFIIV @EKDB QEB SBOV PQOR@QROB LC JBOF@K DLSBOKJBKQ.

LT TP OFPH FK QEFP PFQRQFLK PL AIV JKDBA? EQ @LRIA CFOJP KA FKAFSFARIP

ESB ALKB QL MOLQB@Q QEBJPBISBP? LT @K DLSBOKJBKQ JBPROB PR@E OFPHP(BCLOBEKA) QL OBDRIQB KA @LKQOLI QEBJ? EBPB KA LQEBO NRBPQFLKP @LJB

FJJBAFQBIV QL JFKA TEBK TB @LKQBJMIQB QEB CQBCRI @LKPBNRBK@BP LC QEFP OFPH

JKDBJBKQ CFP@L.

FQE EFP TFABIV @@IFJBA LLH Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (BT

LOH FQV: LEK FIBV & LKP, 1996), BQBO . BOKPQBFK QB@EBP RP ELT ERJK


13


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BFKDP ESB MOLDOBPPBA PL JDKFCF@BKQIV TFQE QEBFO JQEBJQF@P KA PQQFPQF@P QL

LSBO@LJB QEB RKHKLTK KA QEB RK@BOQFKQV PPL@FQBA TFQE OFPH. LTBSBO, KL LKB

CRIIV MO@QF@BA EFP MIKP LC ELT QL RQFIFWB QEB FKPFDEQP DFKBA COLJ QEFP OBJOHIB

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QOFK, FIJ, KA FQ FK 2005 KA ROOF@KB HB FK 2008; KA QEB CFKK@FI

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FKSBPQJBKQP LO TLRIAKiQ ESB MRQ BKLRDE JLKBV FKQL OBPBOSB QL B IB QL

TFQEPQKA ABCRIQP. EFP AFA KLQ EMMBK. @@LOAFKDIV, QEFP LLH JV OBMOBPBKQ LKB

LC QEB JLPQ @OFQF@I QLMF@P LC PQRAV QEQ QEB PQRABKQ LC QEB QTBKQV-CFOPQ @BKQROV @LRIA

BSBO RKABOQHB.

FPH JKDBJBKQ TFII B JGLO CL@I MLFKQ LC RPFKBPP KA PL@FBQI AB@FPFLK

JHFKD FK QEB QTBKQV-CFOPQ @BKQROV. PBMOQB CL@RPBA CFBIA LC PQRAV, FQ AOTP LK@LOB HKLTIBADB PBP COLJ IT, BKDFKBBOFKD, CFKK@B, B@LKLJF@P, JBAF@FKB,

MPV@ELILDV, @@LRKQFKD, JQEBJQF@P, PQQFPQF@P, KA LQEBO CFBIAP QL @OBQB ELIFPQF@

AB@FPFLK-JHFKD COJBTLOH QEQ FP PRPQFKIB KA SIRB-BKEK@FKD. EFP FP QEB

PRGB@Q LC QEFP LLH.

K QEFP @EMQBO TB AFP@RPP QEB CLIILTFKD:

1. FKHP

2. EB KLQFLK KA ABCFKFQFLK LC OFPHP

3. QQFQRABP QLTOA OFPHP4. VMBP LC OFPH BUMLPROBP

5. BOFIP KA EWOAP


14


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1.1 @EJ

RO fIFKHPg PB@QFLK FK B@E @EMQBO QFBP B@E @LK@BMQ KA LGB@QFSB FK QEB @EMQBO

FKQL QEB OBIJ LC DILIIV LO ELIFPQF@IIV JKDFKD OFPH. EB PLIRQFLKP QL OFPHMOLIBJP OBNRFOB @LJMFIQFLK LC QB@EKFNRBP KA MBOPMB@QFSBP, PELTK P QEB MFB@BP

@LJMIBQFKD MRWWIB LC QEB JVOFA LC MBOPLKI KA RPFKBPP OFPHP TB C@B. EBPB OB

PELTK FK QEB f@LKKB@QFLKg MRWWIB FK FDROB 1.1 "LJMIBQB F@QROB LC QEB LIFPQF@

FPH RWWIB". P TB MOLDOBPP QEOLRDE QEB QBUQ, B@E @EMQBO TFII BDFK TFQE

@LKKB@QFLK PB@QFLK QL PELT ELT IFKHP BQTBBK MBOPLKI KA BKQBOMOFPB ELIFPQF@ OFPH

MF@QROB OFPB.

Figure 1.1 Complete Picture of the Holistic Risk Puzzle

SBK FK @EMQBOP QEQ VLR JV KLQ QEFKH MMIV QL QEB FKAFSFARI, PR@E P

@LJJBO@FI OFPH, QEB @LKKB@QFLK TFII EFDEIFDEQ QEB RKABOIVFKD OBIQFLKPEFMP JLKDAFCCBOBKQ OFPHP. LAV, JKDBJBKQ LC MBOPLKI KA @LJJBO@FI OFPHP OBNRFOBP

@LLOAFKQFLK LC II C@BQP LC QEB OFPH PMB@QORJ. K KQFLKI IBSBI, TB BUMBOFBK@BA

QEB JLSB QLTOA ELIFPQF@ OFPH JKDBJBKQ TFQE QEB @OBQFLK LC QEB BMOQJBKQ LC

LJBIKA B@ROFQV CQBO QEB QBOOLOFPQ QQ@HP LC BMQBJBO 11, 2001.BB

EQQM://TTT.AEP.DLS/AEPMRIF@/. CQBO ROOF@KB QOFK PQOR@H FK 2005, QEB

FJMPPB JLKD IL@I, PQQB, KA CBABOI LCCF@FIP BIBSQBA QEB KBBA CLO @LLOAFKQFLK

QL @EFBSB BCCF@FBKQ ELIFPQF@ OFPH JKDBJBKQ FK QEB BSBKQ LC [email protected]


15
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PQRABKQ FP FKSFQBA QL OBA O@EFSI OQF@IBP COLJ II JBAF PLRO@BP LRQ QEB

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FODFKF LJJLKTBIQE KFSBOPFQV EBIA QLTK EII JBBQFKD QEB TBBH CQBO QOFK

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Q QEB BKQBOMOFPB IBSBIeBPPBKQFIIV DILI ELIFPQF@ MMOL@E QL JKDFKD JPJK


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1.2 < FK@FE E


25/1239

BOQFKQV OBCBOP QL HKLTFKD PLJBQEFKD TFII EMMBK LO TLKiQ EMMBK. B JV

BUMBOFBK@B KL ALRQ FK @BOQFK PFQRQFLKP. LKMBOCB@Q MOBAF@QFIFQV OFPBP FK

RK@BOQFK PFQRQFLKP. Uncertainty @RPBP QEB BJLQFLKI (LO MEVPF@I) KUFBQV LO

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MRO@EPB FKPROK@B. EB MBOPLK LO @LOMLOQFLK L@@RMVFKD QEB JLOQDDB-CRKABA

MOLMBOQV JRPQ MRO@EPB FKPROK@B LK OBI BPQQB FC TB FKQBKA QL IBKA QEBJ JLKBV.

C TB HKBT, TFQELRQ ALRQ, QEQ PLJBQEFKD A TP LRQ QL L@@RO, TB TLRIA @II

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P TB II HKLT, @BOQFKQV FP BIRPFSB. K@BOQFKQV KA OFPH OB MBOSPFSB. EFIB TB

QVMF@IIV PPL@FQB fOFPHg TFQE RKMIBPKQ LO KBDQFSB BSBKQP, FK OBIFQV PLJB OFPHV

PFQRQFLKP @K OBPRIQ FK MLPFQFSB LRQ@LJBP. HB, CLO BUJMIB, SBKQROB @MFQIFKSBPQFKD LO BKQOBMOBKBROFI BKABSLOP. Uncertainty LRQ TEF@E LC PBSBOI MLPPFIB

LRQ@LJBP TFII L@@RO @FO@RJP@OFBP QEB JBKFKD LC OFPH. K@BOQFKQV IFBP BEFKA QEB

ABCFKFQFLK LC OFPH.

EFIB TB IFKH QEB @LK@BMQ LC OFPH TFQE QEB KLQFLK LC RK@BOQFKQV, OFPH FPKiQ

PVKLKVJLRP TFQE RK@BOQFKQV. MBOPLK BUMBOFBK@FKD QEB CIR FP KLQ KB@BPPOFIV QEB

PJB P QEB SFORP @RPFKD QEB CIR. FPH FPKiQ QEB PJB P QEB RKABOIVFKD MOBOBNRFPFQB

LC RK@BOQFKQV. @J3 (FKQRFQFSBIV KA CLOJIIV) EP QL AL TFQE @LKPBNRBK@BP (LQE

MLPFQFSB KA KBDQFSB); FQ FKSLISBP ESFKD JLOB QEK QTL MLPPFIB LRQ@LJBP

(RK@BOQFKQV).BB EQQM://TTT.AEP.DLS/AEPMRIF@/. EB @LKPBNRBK@BP @K BBESFLOI, MPV@ELILDF@I, LO CFKK@FI, QL KJB CBT. K@BOQFKQV IPL @OBQBP

LMMLOQRKFQFBP CLO DFK KA QEB MLQBKQFI CLO ILPP. BSBOQEBIBPP, FC KL MLPPFFIFQV LC

KBDQFSB LRQ@LJB OFPBP Q II, BSBK OBJLQBIV, QEBK TB RPRIIV AL KLQ OBCBO QL QEB

PFQRQFLK P ESFKD OFPH (LKIV RK@BOQFKQV) P PELTK FK FDROB 1.2 "K@BOQFKQV P

OB@LKAFQFLK QL FPH".

3. K@BOQFKQV LRQ CRQROBLRQ@LJB, MOQF@RIOIV QEB@LKPBNRBK@BP LC KBDQFSBLRQ@LJB.


1.2 EB LQFLK KA BCFKFQFLK LC FPH 18
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/


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Figure 1.2 Uncertainty as a Precondition to Risk

IB 1.1 UJMIBP LC LKPBNRBK@BP EQ BMOBPBKQ FPHP

KK


27/1239

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MBLMIB QHB LK OFPH (FO@IB 1) CLO OBTOA (FO@IB 2).

Figure 1.3 Roles (Objectives) Underlying the Definition of Risk

ABKQFCV QEB LSBOIMMFKD OB P QEB PBQ FK TEF@E TB LQE JFKFJFWB OFPH KA

JUFJFWB SIRB.

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BUMILFQFKD LMMLOQRKFQFBP MOBPBKQBA V OFPH; LC @LROPB, TB JRPQ IPL @@LRKQ CLO QEB

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` FPH FP @LKPBNRBK@B LC RK@BOQFKQV; OFPH @K B BJLQFLKI, CFKK@FI, LO

OBMRQQFLKI.

` EB OLIBP LC UFJFWQFLK LC IRB KA FKFJFWQFLK LC LPPBP CLOJ

@LKQFKRRJ LK TEF@E OFPH FP K@ELOBA.

` KB @LKPBNRBK@B LC RK@BOQFKQV FP QEQ @QRI LRQ@LJBP JV SOV COLJ

TEQ FP BUMB@QBA KA P PR@E OBMOBPBKQP OFPH.

C !

1. EQ FP QEB OBIQFLKPEFM BQTBBK RK@BOQFKQV KA OFPH?

2. EQ OLIBP @LKQOFRQB QL QEB ABCFKFQFLK LC OFPH?

3. EQ BUJMIBP CFQ RKABO RK@BOQFKQFBP KA @LKPBNRBK@BP? EF@E OB QEB

OFPHP?

4. EQ FP QEB CLOJI ABCFKFQFLK LC OFPH?

5. EQ BUJMIBP @K VLR @FQB LC NRKQFQQFSB @LKPBNRBK@BP LC RK@BOQFKQVKA NRIFQQFSB LO BJLQFLKI @LKPBNRBK@B LC RK@BOQFKQV?




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1.3 AKK@KL


31/1239

BSBOVLKBfeltIFHB DJIBO. EFP BJMEPFWBP GRPQ ELT CIRFAIV OFPH IFBP LK

@LKQFKRRJ IFHB QEQ FK FDROB 1.3 "LIBP (GB@QFSBP) KABOIVFKD QEB BCFKFQFLK LC

FPH". FKK@FI QEBLOFBP KA OBPBO@E MV QQBKQFLK QL QEB KQROB LC QEB BESFLO LC

CFOJP FK QEBFO MROPRFQ QL JUFJFWB SIRB. LPQ QEBLOFBP DOBB QEQ CFOJP TLOH

TFQEFK OFPH IFJFQP QL BKPROB QEBV AL KLQ fDL OLHB.g K QEB CLIILTFKD LU TB MOLSFAB

OFBC AFP@RPPFLK LC MBLMIBiP QQFQRABP QLTOA OFPH. JLOB BILOQB AFP@RPPFLK @KB CLRKA FK EMQBO 3 "FPH QQFQRABP: UMB@QBA QFIFQV EBLOV KA BJKA CLO

BADFKD".


1.3 QQFQRABP QLTOA FPHP 24


32/1239


33/1239

Figure 1.4

Risk Balls

'! A'!AA

` FCCBOBKQFQB JLKD QEB QEOBB OFPH QQFQRABP QEQ MOBSFI FK LRO

IFSBPeOFPH SBOPB, OFPH KBRQOI, KA OFPH PBBHBO.

C !

1. JB QEOBB OFPH QQFQRABP QEQ MBLMIB AFPMIV.

2. LT AL QELPB OFPH QQFQRABP CFQP FKQL OLIBP QEQ IFB BEFKA QEB ABCFKFQFLK

LC OFPHP?


1.3 QQFQRABP QLTOA FPHP 26


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1.4 PG


35/1239

OFDEQ-EKA PFAB CL@RPBP LK PMB@RIQFSB OFPH. EB IBCQ-EKA PFAB OBMOBPBKQP MROB OFPH.

FPH MOLCBPPFLKIP CFKA QEFP AFPQFK@QFLK RPBCRI QL AFCCBOBKQFQB BQTBBK QVMBP LC OFPH.

LJB OFPHP @K B QOKPCBOOBA QL QEFOA MOQVeIFHB K FKPROK@B @LJMKV. EBPB

QEFOA MOQFBP @K MOLSFAB RPBCRI fOFPH JKDBJBKQ PLIRQFLK.g LJB PFQRQFLKP, LKQEB LQEBO EKA, OBNRFOB OFPH QOKPCBOP QEQ RPB @MFQI JOHBQP, HKLTK P EBADFKD LO

PB@ROFQFWQFLKP. @E>13 OBCBOP QL @QFSFQFBP QEQ OB QHBK QL OBAR@B LO BIFJFKQB

OFPHP.


36/1239

PELT QEBFO @QFSFQFBP FK QEB OBP LC BKQBOMOFPB OFPH JKDBJBKQ. P VLR TFII PBB FK

IQBO @EMQBOP, QEB OFPH JKDBO FK RPFKBPPBP FP KL ILKDBO ROFBA FK QEB QOK@EBP LC

QEB BKQBOMOFPB. FPH JKDBOP OB MOQ LC QEB BUB@RQFSB QBJ KA OB BPPBKQFI QL

@EFBSFKD QEB JFK LGB@QFSBP LC QEB BKQBOMOFPB. MF@QROB LC QEB BKQBOMOFPB OFPH JM

LC IFCB FKPROBOP FP PELTK IQBO FK FDROB 1.5 " ELQL LC ISBPQLK PIKA CQBO

ROOF@KB HB".

IB 1.2 UJMIBP LC ROB SBOPRP MB@RIQFSB FPH UMLPROBP

LI< @JVFJJ FI F FJJ EP

G


37/1239

LI< @JVFJJ FI F FJJ EP

G


38/1239

Figure 1.5 A Photo of

Galveston Island after

Hurricane Ike

@LKPBNRBK@BP LC @RPFKD AJDB QL LQEBOP. KB FP BUMLPBA QL QEB MLPPFFIFQV LC@@@KP FJJ20 (ILPP @RPBA V QEFOA MOQV TEL FP @LKPFABOBA Q CRIQ) V ESFKD QL

ABCBKA DFKPQ ITPRFQ TEBK EB LO PEB EP FK PLJB TV EROQ LQEBO MBLMIB. EB

OBPMLKPFIB MOQV JV B@LJB IBDIIV LIFDQBA QL MV CLO FKGROV QL MBOPLKP LO

AJDB QL MOLMBOQV. FFIFQV OFPH JV L@@RO B@RPB LC @QPQOLMEF@ ILPP BUMLPROB

LO B@RPB LC @@FABKQI ILPP BUMLPROB. OLAR@Q IFFIFQV FP K FIIRPQOQFSB BUJMIB: CFOJ FP OBPMLKPFIB CLO @LJMBKPQFKD MBOPLKP FKGROBA V PRMMIVFKD ABCB@QFSB

MOLAR@Q, TEF@E @RPBP AJDB QL K FKAFSFARI LO KLQEBO CFOJ.

CKJKIFG@ FJJ !OGFJLI< E LED


39/1239

KLQEBO MLPPFIB @QBDLOFWQFLK LC BUMLPROBP FP P CLIILTP:

` FPHP LC KQROB

` FPHP OBIQBA QL ERJK KQROB (QEBCQ, RODIOV, BJBWWIBJBKQ, CORA)

` K-JAB OFPHP` FPHP PPL@FQBA TFQE AQ KA HKLTIBADB

` FPHP PPL@FQBA TFQE QEB IBDI PVPQBJ (IFFIFQV)eFQ ALBP KLQ @OBQB QEB

OFPHP RQ FQ JV PEFCQ QEBJ QL VLRO OBK

` FPHP OBIQBA QL IODB PVPQBJP: DLSBOKJBKQP, OJFBP, IODB RPFKBPP

LODKFWQFLKP, MLIFQF@I DOLRMP

` KQBIIB@QRI MOLMBOQV

ROB KA PMB@RIQFSB OFPHP OB KLQ QEB LKIV TV LKB JFDEQ AF@ELQLJFWB OFPHP.

KLQEBO OBHALTK FP BQTBBK @QPQOLMEF@ OFPHP, PR@E P CILLA KA EROOF@KBP, P

LMMLPBA QL @@FABKQI ILPPBP PR@E P QELPB @RPBA V @@FABKQP PR@E P CFOBP.

KLQEBO AFCCBOBKQFQFLK FP V PVPQBJF@ LO KLKAFSBOPFCFIB OFPHP, P LMMLPBA QL

FAFLPVK@OQF@ LO AFSBOPFCFIB OFPHP; QEFP FP BUMIFKBA BILT.

@M


40/1239

MLOQCLIFL. EFP TFII B AFP@RPPBA FK ABQFI BILT KA FK IQBO @EMQBOP. EB CFBIA LC

OFPH JKDBJBKQ ABIP TFQE LQE AFSBOPFCFIB KA KLKAFSBOPFCFIB OFPHP. P QEB

BSBKQP LC BMQBJBO 2008 ESB PELTK, @LKQOOV QL PLJB FKQBOMOBQQFLKP LC CFKK@FI

QEBLOV, QEB FAFLPVK@OQF@ OFPHP LC PLJB KHP @LRIA KLQ ITVP B AFSBOPFCFBA TV.

EBPB OFPHP ESB PELTK QEBV ESB QEB FIFQV QL @LJB @H QL FQB (KA MLFPLK) QEB

BKQFOB BKQBOMOFPB KA LQEBOP PPL@FQBA TFQE QEBJ.

IB 1.3 "UJMIBP LC FPH UMLPROBP V QEB FSBOPFCFIB KA LKAFSBOPFCFIB

QBDLOFBP" MOLSFABP BUJMIBP LC OFPH BUMLPROBP V QEB @QBDLOFBP LC AFSBOPFCFIB

KA KLKAFSBOPFCFIB OFPH BUMLPROBP. KV LC QEBJ OB PBIC BUMIKQLOV, RQ QEB

JLPQ FJMLOQKQ AFPQFK@QFLK FP TEBQEBO QEB OFPH FP RKFNRB LO FAFLPVK@OQF@ QL CFOJ

LO KLQ. LO BUJMIB, QEB OBMRQQFLK LC CFOJ FP RKFNRB QL QEB CFOJ. BPQOLVFKD LKBiP

OBMRQQFLK FP KLQ PVPQBJF@ OFPH FK QEB B@LKLJV LO QEB JOHBQ-MI@B. K QEB LQEBO

EKA, JOHBQ OFPH, PR@E P ABSIRQFLK LC QEB ALIIO FP PVPQBJF@ OFPH CLO II CFOJP FK

QEB BUMLOQ LO FJMLOQ RPFKBPPBP. K IB 1.3 "UJMIBP LC FPH UMLPROBP V QEB

FSBOPFCFIB KA LKAFSBOPFCFIB QBDLOFBP" TB MOLSFAB BUJMIBP LC OFPHP VQEBPB @QBDLOFBP. EB BUJMIBP OB KLQ @LJMIBQB KA QEB PQRABKQ FP FKSFQBA QL AA P

JKV BUJMIBP P ABPFOBA.

IB 1.3 UJMIBP LC FPH UMLPROBP V QEB FSBOPFCFIB KA LKAFSBOPFCFIB

QBDLOFBP

@M


41/1239

@M


42/1239

Figure 1.6 Life Insurers Enterprise Risks

@JJ @E K< @DK

RO DOBQ PR@@BPPBP FK FKKLSQFLK OB IPL Q QEB EBOQ LC QEB DOBQBPQ OFPHP LC LRO

IFSBP. K LKDLFKD @LK@BOK FP QEB BIB@QOLKF@ OFPH (B-OFPH) DBKBOQBA V QEB BUQBKPFSB

RPB LC @LJMRQBOP, B-@LJJBO@B, KA QEB KQBOKBQ. EBPB OFPHP OB BUQBKPFSB KA QEB

BUMLPROBP OB B@LJFKD JLOB ABCFKBA. EB LU LQB 1.32 "EB FPHP LC -

BUMLPROBP" BILT FIIRPQOQBP QEB KBTKBPP KA KLQ-PL-KBTKBPP FK LRO OFPHP.


1.4 VMBP LC FPHPeFPH UMLPROBP 35


43/1239

< @JJ F !-


44/1239

@VBOPM@B, BSFABK@BA V OB@LOA-OBHFKD LKIFKB PIBP AROFKD QEB 2005

EOFPQJP PBPLK.

Sources: OOV OLVALK, fHFKD BKPB LC VBO-UMLPROBP,g NationalUnderwriter, OLMBOQV & PRIQV/FPH & BKBCFQP KDBJBKQ AFQFLK, 17 RKB

2002; LKKB LG@FH, fKPROBOP RQ -FPHP COLJ LIF@FBP,g Business Insurance, 10

BMQBJBO 2001; OFLRP JBAF OBPLRO@BP Q QEB BKA LC 2005 PR@E P Wall Street

Journal KA IL@I KBTPMMBOP.

LAV, QEBOB FP KL JBAF QEQ FP KLQ AFP@RPPFKD QEB OFPHP QEQ OLRDEQ RP QL QEB

@IJFQV TB OB BKAROFKD AROFKD LRO @ROOBKQ CFKK@FI @OFPFP. ERP, P LMMLPBA QL

QEB JBD@QPQOLMEBP LC 2001 KA 2005, LRO @LK@BKQOQFLK FP LK QEB CFIROB LC OFPH

JKDBJBKQ FK QEB OB LC PMB@RIQFSB OFPHP LO QEB LMMLOQRKFQV FK OFPHP KA KLQ P

JR@E LK QEB MROB OFPH. @PB Q MLFKQ FP QEB IFQQIB JBAF @LSBODB LC QEB ABSPQQFLK

LC ISBPQLK PIKA COLJ ROOF@KB HB AROFKD QEB CFKK@FI @OFPFP LC BMQBJBO

2008. EB CLIILTFKD LU ABP@OFBP QEB OFPHP LC QEB CFOPQ AB@AB LC QEB KBT

JFIIBKKFRJ.




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@JJ @E K<


46/1239

FJMLOQK@B LC ESFKD @LJJFQQBA PQHBELIABO TEL FP SBPQBA FK QEB LRQ@LJB

KA @OBP QL ILTBO KA JFQFDQB QEB OFPH. FK@B QEB FKPROK@B FKARPQOV AFA KLQ

LTK QEB OFPH LC CILLA, QEBOB TP DM FK QEB OFPH JKDBJBKQ. EB CL@RP LK

QBOOLOFPJ OFPH @LRIA B OBDOABA P @LKQOFRQFKD C@QLO QL QEB KBDIB@Q LC QEBKQROI AFPPQBOP OFPH FK BT OIBKP. EB DOLRKA TP CBOQFIB CLO JFPEKAIFKD

QEB BUQOBJB EROOF@KB @QPQOLMEBP. EBOBCLOB, COLJ PR@E SFBTMLFKQ, FQ @K

B ODRBA QEQ BMQBJBO 11 ABOFIBA LRO @LJMOBEBKPFSB KQFLKI OFPH

JKDBJBKQ KA @LKQOFRQBA FKAFOB@QIV QL QEB TLOPBKFKD LC QEB BCCB@QP LC

ROOF@KB QOFK.

ROQEBOJLOB, FK K BO LC CFKK@FI QB@EKLILDV KA @OBQFLK LC FKKLSQFSB

JLABIFKD CLO MOBAF@QFKD QEB JLPQ FKCOBNRBKQ @QPQOLMEBP, QEB FKKLSQFLK KA

DOLTQE FK ERJK @M@FQV FP Q QEB OLLQ LC QEB @ROOBKQ @OBAFQ @OFPFP. EFIB QEB

FKKLSQFLK IILTP CFOJP PR@E P FPH KDBJBKQ LIRQFLKP () KA

LOIATFAB QL MOLSFAB JLABIPEQQM://TTT.OJP.@LJ, EQQM://TTT.FPL.@LJ/

FKABU.MEM?LMQFLK= @LJ@LKQBKQ&QPH=SFBT&FA=932&QBJFA=587, KA

EQQM://TTT.FPL.@LJ/FKABU.MEM?LMQFLK=

@LJ@LKQBKQ&QPH=SFBT&FA=930&QBJFA=585. QEQ MOBAF@Q MLQBKQFI JK-JAB

KA KQROI @QPQOLMEBP, CFKK@FI QB@EKLILDV IPL ASK@BA QEB @OBQFLK LC

CFKK@FI FKPQORJBKQP, PR@E P @OBAFQ ABCRIQ ABOFSQFSBP KA JLOQDDB-@HBA

PB@ROFQFBP. EB @OBQFLK LC QEB MOLAR@QP MOLSFABA fI@H LUBPg RKABOPQLLA V

CBT KA TFQELRQ MMOLMOFQB OFPH JKDBJBKQ. KDFKBBOP, JQEBJQF@FKP, KA

NRKQFQQFSBIV QIBKQBA MBLMIB JLSBA COLJ QEB ILT-MVFKD GLP FK QEBFO

OBPMB@QFSB CFBIAP FKQL II QOBBQ. EBV RPBA QEBFO PHFIIP QL @OBQB JLABIP KA

KBT MOLAR@QP RQ I@HBA QEB RPFKBPP @RJBK KA QEB OBNRFOBA PCBQV KBQRKABOPQKAFKD QL BKPROB MOLAR@Q PRPQBKK@B. KDBJBKQ LC IODB CFKK@FI

FKPQFQRQFLKP DILIIV BKGLVBA QEB KBT @OBQFSFQV KA BKALOPBA QEB ALMQFLK LC

QEB KBT MOLAR@QP TFQELRQ @IBO RKABOPQKAFKD LC QEBFO MLQBKQFI FJM@Q LO GRPQ

B@RPB LC DOBBA. EFP I@H LC OFPH JKDBJBKQ FP Q QEB EBOQ LC QEB @OBAFQ

@OFPFP LC 2008. L TLKABO QEB @OBAFQ OQFKD LODKFWQFLKP OB KLT AAFKD

P@LOBP QL QEBFO OQFKDP LC @LJMKFBP.

EB CLIILTFKD NRLQB FP HBV QL QLAViP OFPH JKDBJBKQ AFP@FMIFKB: fFPH

JKDBJBKQ EP BBK PFDKFCF@KQ MOQ LC QEB FKPROK@B FKARPQOVc, RQ FK

OB@BKQ QFJBP FQ EP ABSBILMBA TFABO @ROOBK@V P K BJBODFKD JKDBJBKQMEFILPLMEV @OLPP QEB DILBc. EB @EIIBKDB C@FKD QEB OFPH JKDBJBKQ

MO@QFQFLKBO LC QEB QTBKQV-CFOPQ @BKQROV FP KLQ GRPQ OBHFKD COBB LC QEB JKQO

QEQ OFPH JKDBJBKQ FP II LRQ FKPROK@B, KA FC TB ESB FKPROK@B, QEBK TB

ESB JKDBA LRO OFPHP, RQ OQEBO BFKD @@BMQBA P MOLSFABO LC ASF@B KA

PBOSF@B QL QEB OFPH JHBOP KA QEB OFPH QHBOP Q II IBSBIP TFQEFK QEB BKQBOMOFPB.


http://www.rms.com/http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=932&Itemid=587http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=932&Itemid=587http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=930&Itemid=585http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=930&Itemid=585http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=930&Itemid=585http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=930&Itemid=585http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=932&Itemid=587http://www.iso.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=932&Itemid=587http://www.rms.com/


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Q FP QEB OFPH JHBOP KA QEB OFPH QHBOP TEL JRPQ B QEB LTKBOP LC OFPH KA

@@LRKQIB CLO FQP BCCB@QFSB JKDBJBKQ.gROBKQ LKAJFK, BK-RI

LRFPLQ, KA QOF@H FJ, fFPH RKQFCF@QFLK: KDBJBKQ, FDKLPFP KA

BADFKDg (EF@EBPQBO, : LEK FIBV & LKP QA., 2006).

'! A'!AA

` LR PELRIA B IB QL ABIFKBQB QEB JFK @QBDLOFBP LC OFPHP: MROB SBOPRP

PMB@RIQFSB, AFSBOPFCFIB SBOPRP KLKAFSBOPFCFIB, FAFLPVK@OQF@ SBOPRP

PVPQBJF@.

` LR PELRIA IPL RKABOPQKA QEB DBKBOI @LK@BMQ LC BKQBOMOFPB-TFAB OFPH.

` OV QL FIIRPQOQB B@E @OLPP @IPPFCF@QFLK LC OFPH TFQE BUJMIBP.` K VLR AFP@RPP QEB OFPHP LC LRO AB@AB?

C !

1. JB QEB JFK @QBDLOFBP LC OFPHP.

2. OLSFAB BUJMIBP LC OFPH @QBDLOFBP.

3. LT TLRIA VLR @IPPFCV QEB OFPHP BJBAABA FK QEB CFKK@FI @OFPFP LC CII

2008 TFQEFK B@E LC @OLPP-@IPPFCF@QFLK?

4. LT ALBP B-OFPH CFQ FKQL QEB @QBDLOFBP LC OFPH?




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1.5


49/1239

KLI


50/1239

IFHBIFELLA LC PIFMP KA CIIP; KA LIA TFOFKD, TEF@E JV FK@OBPB QEB IFHBIFELLA LC

CFOB.

EVPF@I EWOAP QEQ CCB@Q MOLMBOQV FK@IRAB IL@QFLK, @LKPQOR@QFLK, KA RPB.

RFIAFKD IL@QFLKP CCB@Q QEBFO PRP@BMQFFIFQV QL ILPP V CFOB, CILLA, BOQENRHB, KALQEBO MBOFIP. RFIAFKD IL@QBA KBO CFOB PQQFLK KA DLLA TQBO PRMMIV EP

ILTBO @EK@B QEQ FQ TFII PRCCBO PBOFLRP ILPP V CFOB QEK FC FQ FP FK K FPLIQBA OB

TFQE KBFQEBO TQBO KLO CFOBCFDEQFKD PBOSF@B. FJFIOIV, @LJMKV QEQ EP RFIQ

@HRM DBKBOQLO TFII ESB ILTBO IFHBIFELLA LC PBOFLRP CFKK@FI ILPP FK QEB BSBKQ

LC MLTBO ILPP EWOA.

LKPQOR@QFLK CCB@QP LQE QEB MOLFIFQV KA PBSBOFQV LC ILPP. EFIB KL RFIAFKD FP

CFOBMOLLC, PLJB @LKPQOR@QFLK QVMBP OB IBPP PRP@BMQFIB QL ILPP COLJ CFOB QEK LQEBOP.

RQ RFIAFKD QEQ FP PRP@BMQFIB QL LKB MBOFI FP KLQ KB@BPPOFIV PRP@BMQFIB QL II.

LO BUJMIB, COJB RFIAFKD FP JLOB MQ QL ROK QEK OF@H RFIAFKD, RQ COJB

RFIAFKDP JV PRCCBO IBPP AJDB COLJ K BOQENRHB.

PB LO L@@RMK@V JV IPL @OBQB MEVPF@I EWOAP. LO BUJMIB, RFIAFKDP RPBA QL

JKRC@QROB LO PQLOB CFOBTLOHP TFII ESB DOBQBO MOLFIFQV LC ILPP V CFOB QEK AL

LCCF@B RFIAFKDP. FHBTFPB, RFIAFKDP RPBA CLO AOV @IBKFKD (TEF@E RPBP SLIQFIB

@EBJF@IP) TFII BO DOBQBO MEVPF@I EWOA QEK AL BIBJBKQOV P@ELLIP. OP

RPBA CLO RPFKBPP MROMLPBP JV B BUMLPBA QL DOBQBO @EK@B LC ILPP QEK QVMF@I

CJFIV @O PFK@B RPFKBPPBP RPB SBEF@IBP JLOB BUQBKPFSBIV KA FK JLOB AKDBOLRP

PBQQFKDP. FJFIOIV, MBLMIB ESB MEVPF@I @EO@QBOFPQF@P QEQ CCB@Q ILPP. LJB LC RP

ESB OFQQIB LKBP, TBH FJJRKB PVPQBJP, LO SFQJFK ABCF@FBK@FBP. KV LC QEBPB

@EO@QBOFPQF@P @LRIA FK@OBPB QEB MOLFIFQV LO PBSBOFQV LC EBIQE BUMBKPBP.

EKE>@< QIJ

BOB TB AFPQFKDRFPE BQTBBK MEVPF@I EWOAP KA @EKE>@< QIJ32eQQFQRABP

KA KLKMEVPF@I @RIQROI @LKAFQFLKP @K CCB@Q ILPP MOLFIFQFBP KA PBSBOFQFBP LC

ILPP. EBFO BUFPQBK@B JV IBA QL MEVPF@I EWOAP. OAFQFLKIIV, RQELOP LC

FKPROK@B QBUQP @QBDLOFWB QEBPB @LKAFQFLKP P JLOI KA JLOIB EWOAP, TEF@E OB

FJMLOQKQ @LK@BMQP RQ AL KLQ @LSBO QEB CRII OKDB LC KLKMEVPF@I EWOAP. SBK QEB

AFPQFK@QFLK BQTBBK JLOI KA JLOIB EWOAP FP CRWWV.

FI QIJ33 OB EWOAP QEQ FKSLISB BESFLO QEQ @K B @LKPQORBA P

KBDIFDBK@B LO QEQ LOABOP LK @OFJFKIFQV. EBV FKSLISB AFPELKBPQV LK QEB MOQ LC

MBLMIB TEL QHB LRQ FKPROK@B (@IIBA fFKPROBAPg). FPH QOKPCBO QEOLRDE FKPROK@B

FKSFQBP JLOI EWOA V MLQBKQFIIV BK@LRODFKD QELPB TEL QOKPCBO OFPHP QL @RPB

ILPPBP FKQBKQFLKIIV CLO JLKBQOV DFK. BKBOIIV, JLOI EWOAP BUFPQ TEBK

MBOPLK @K DFK COLJ QEB L@@ROOBK@B LC ILPP. LO BUJMIB, K FKPROBA QEQ TFII B

32. QQFQRABP KA KLKMEVPF@I@RIQROI @LKAFQFLKP @K CCB@QILPP MOLFIFQFBP KA PBSBOFQFBPLC ILPP.

33. WOAP QEQ FKSLISB BESFLOQEQ @K B @LKPQORBA PKBDIFDBK@B LOABOFKD LK@OFJFKIFQV.


1.5 BOFIP KA WOAP 43


51/1239

OBFJROPBA CLO QEB @LPQ LC KBT PQBOBL PVPQBJ CLIILTFKD QEB ILPP LC K LIA LKB EP

K FK@BKQFSB QL @RPB ILPP. K FKPROBA RPFKBPP QEQ FP ILPFKD JLKBV JV ESB OPLK

P JLOI EWOA. R@E FK@BKQFSBP FK@OBPB ILPP MOLFIFQFBP; P QEB KJB fJLOIg

FJMIFBP, JLOI EWOA FP OB@E LC JLOIFQV (ELKBPQV).

FI< QIJ34, FK @LKQOPQ, AL KLQ FKSLISB AFPELKBPQV. QEBO, JLOIB EWOAP

FKSLISB QQFQRABP LC @OBIBPPKBPP KA I@H LC @LK@BOK. P PR@E, JLOIB EWOAP

FK@OBPB QEB @EK@B ILPP TFII L@@RO LO FK@OBPB QEB PFWB LC ILPPBP QEQ AL L@@RO.

LLO ELRPBHBBMFKD (B.D., IILTFKD QOPE QL @@RJRIQB FK QQF@P LO PBJBKQP) LO

@OBIBPP @FDOBQQB PJLHFKD OB BUJMIBP LC JLOIB EWOAP QEQ FK@OBPB QEB

MOLFIFQV CFOB ILPPBP. CQBK, PR@E I@H LC @LK@BOK L@@ROP B@RPB QEFOA MOQV

(PR@E P K FKPROBO) FP SFIIB QL MV CLO ILPPBP. MBOPLK LO @LJMKV QEQ HKLTP

QEBV OB FKPROBA CLO MOQF@RIO ILPP BUMLPROB JV QHB IBPP MOB@RQFLK QL MOLQB@Q

QEFP BUMLPROB QEK LQEBOTFPB. LQEFKD AFPELKBPQ IROHP FK KLQ IL@HFKD VLRO @O LO FK

KLQ QHFKD ABNRQB @OB QL OBAR@B ILPPBP, PL QEBPB ALKiQ OBMOBPBKQ JLOIFQV

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KV MBLMIB RKKB@BPPOFIV KA LCQBK RK@LKP@FLRPIV @OBQB JLOIB EWOAP QEQ @K

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QBOOLOFPQ QQ@HP. CBQV FKPMB@QFLKP FK FOMLOQP OB LKB BUJMIB LC AFPPQBO @LKQOLI

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LOQE Q QL LR?" CLO AFP@RPPFLK LC PCBQV FK FOMLOQP.

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http://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=44&content=090005198018c27ehttp://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=44&content=090005198018c27ehttp://www.tsa.gov/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_transatlantic_aircraft_plot#Referenceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_transatlantic_aircraft_plot#Referenceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_transatlantic_aircraft_plot#Referenceshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_transatlantic_aircraft_plot#Referenceshttp://www.tsa.gov/http://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=44&content=090005198018c27ehttp://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=44&content=090005198018c27e


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@LJMRQBOP KA @LJMRQQFLK JBJLOV. LT, LK QL QEB GLROKBV.

Figure 2.1 Links between Each Holistic Risk Puzzle Piece and Its Computational Measures


53


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Figure 2.2 Possible Outcomes for a Roll of Two Dice with the Probability of Having a Particular Number of Dots

Facing Up

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Figure 2.3 Normal Distribution of Potential Profit from a Research and Development Project

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Figure 2.6 The 95 percent VaR for the Profit and Loss Distribution ofFigure 2.2 "Possible Outcomes for a Roll of

Two Dice with the Probability of Having a Particular Number of Dots Facing Up"


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Enterprise and Individual Risk Management