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Environment Canada context: Climate and Air Quality
M. Shepherd, Climate Research DivisionScience & Technology BranchNovember 18, 2013
Context
• Climate Adaptation Climate impact studies Climate services – targeted information to address adaptation
challenge and reduce vulnerabilities
• Climate Mitigation• Estimating climate response to individual forcers
• Clean Air Regulatory Agenda (CARA) CACs and AQ / Weather feedbacks
• The Northern Strategy • Advance our understanding AQ and climate response in the Arctic
due to climate change, resource development, and marine traffic
• Build supporting science through integrated atmospheric research program, leveraging collaborations > NSERC CCAR NETCARE
The obligations to do this work
• UNFCCC Articles 4 and 5: monitoring and research
• CEPA: GHGs, Smog precursors identified as toxic substances under Schedule 1
• Clean Air Agenda: Adaptation and CARA Renewal (2008 - 2016)
Through Canada’s membership to the:– World Meteorological Organization (WMO), – Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations
Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), – United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the – International Council for Science (ICSU).
▪ Global Climate Observing System: (GCOS)▪ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)▪ World Climate Research Program (WCRP)▪ International Global Atmosphere Chemistry Program (IGAC)
– Arctic Council – mitigation of SLCFs– UN ECE LRTAP Gothenburg Protocol – short lived climate pollutants
Why did EC support an aerosols focussed project?
Climate projections continue to be challenged by uncertainties related to the role of aerosols (AR4, AR5).
– Requires better processes understanding– Based on better / more observations
AQ management needs improved source characterization (type, transport) and response to climate change.
Demands a very intentional linkage between the observations and processes research with the model development
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090200
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CO2 (ppm)
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800
900
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Year1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
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Global Mean Screen Temperature (C)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 209013
14
15
16
17
18
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20
Year
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average
a) b)
c)
V. K. Arora et al. 2011 Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases. GRL doi:10.1029/2010GL046270
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Alert, NUCandle Lake, SKSable Island, NSEast Trout Lake, SKLac Labiche, ABEstevan, BCEgbert, ON
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
395
400
405
410
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
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Year
CO2 (ppm)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
13
14
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17
18
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20
Year
Global Mean Screen Temperature (C)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 209013
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Year
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average
a) b)
c)
To reach ~2o warming target, global CO2 emissions must level off immediately, and decline to negative values before end of century (i.e. net CO2 extraction from atmosphere);
Surface air temperature change (relative to 1986-2005 average) from CanRCM4 (44 km resolution, RCP4.5)
C
Surface air temperature change (relative to 1986-2005 average) from CanRCM4 (44 km resolution, RCP4.5)
2010 2030
2050 2090
C
Gillett et al, 2011
Detection and Attribution – separating the response to various forcings
The collaborative approach to address specific program needs in EC• To reap the benefit of the collaboration, and integrate the research results of
NETCARE in EC programs and tools, EC contributes scientists, technicians, instruments and sites for observations and field campaigns (surface, ice breaker and airborne), data interpretation, and model development and evaluation.
• Rely on the academic community for scientific and technical contributions to the field work, atmospheric processes research and model development.
• Building on international collaborations and previous field campaigns (PAMARCMIP)
• To address key uncertainties in the prediction of aerosol effects on climate by using a variety of observational and modeling approaches, and;
• To use that increased knowledge to improve the accuracy of Canadian climate and earth system model predictions.
• Aerosol processes: ice nucleation, deposition• Improved emissions characterization for ships and natural marine sources• Transport and source region characterization• CanESM and GEM-MACH• Long term monitoring activities
Science Innovation
Model & Method Development
Model & Method Application
User Accessible Climate Information & Data
• CanESM, CanRCM, CanSIPs
• Climate Trends, Variability & Extremes characterization
• Water Availability & Infrastructure Climate indices
• Snow and Sea Ice characterization
• GHG and Aerosols Baseline Monitoring
• Observations based GHG source estimates + trends
• Global and Regional Scale Climate Scenarios
• Adjusted Homogenized Climate Data Records and Climate Indices
• Snow Water Equivalent maps
• GHG and Aerosols Observations
• Annual GHG Source / Sink Estimates
EC Climate Research Innovation Chain forAdaptation & Mitigation Decision Making
User s
• NMHS’s• Regional Climate
Consortia• Academic
Institutions• Federal &
Provincial Sector Based Ministries
• National Sector Associations
• Private Sector
• Global and Regional Model Testing & Evaluation
• Evaluating Statistical Methods for Climate Analysis
• Inversion and Assimilation Methods for Source Characterization
• Instrumentation
• Atmosphere – Surface Processes Parameterization
• Atmospheric Chemistry Parameterization
• Atmosphere, Ocean, Cryosphere, Terrestrial Model Development
• Statistical Methods Development for Climate Variables
• Analytical / Instrument Testing for GHG and aerosol monitoring
Conceptual model July 8, 2013
NSERC CCAR Projects
CMIP6
CanAM4AGCM:
OGCM:
OzoneChem:
RCM:
Carbon:
AGCM3
CM
AM
4
CanAM4
CanOM4COUPLER4
CanCM4
CanAM4
OGCM4 CMOCCTEM4COUPLER4
CanESM4
CanESM4(CanESM2)
CMAM
GEM3-LAM+ CanAM4
CanRCM4
CanAM4
CM
AM
4.X
CMIP5
CanESM5
CanAM4.X
CanOM4.XCOUPLER4.X
NEMO3.4
CanAM4.XCanAM4
+ new DYN
CanAM4.X
OGCM4
COUPLER4.X CTEM4.XCMOC NEMO3.4
CMOC4.X
GEM4-LAM+ canAM4
COUPLER4.X
COUPLER4.X
AGCM5
OGCM5 CMOC5
CTEM5COUPLER5
CM
AM
5
(NEMOx)
CanAM5
CanAM4.X
CanOM5 (NEMOx)
COUPLER5
CanAM4.X
OGCM5COUPLER5 CTEM5
CMOC5
CanAM5
CM
AM
5
GEM4-LAM+ CanAM4.X
GEM4-LAM
+ CanAM5
CanRCM5
(04/2012) (10/2013) (04/2015)
Preparing now for contributions to IPCC 6th Assessment …
CanESM4
AGCM4
OGCM4CTEMCMOC
CanRCM4
AGCM4
Ch
em
CMAM
Strat/Meso
AGCM3
CanCM3
AGCM3
OGCM3COUPLER
AGCM4
OGCM4COUPLER
CanCM4CanSIPS
ACCMIP
CCMVal-1
CCMVal-2
CORDEX
CMIP5
GEOMIP
MJO-DPIP
CMAM30
CCMI
SHFP
CHFP
GLASE-2
CMIP5
IceHFP
Current Model Suite
Unification
CMIP6 Model Suite
– strat/trop chemistry– carbon cycle
Development
– AGCM dynamical core
– ocean model (NEMO)
– AGCM physics(eg aerosols, clouds)
– land surface
– ocean/land biogeo- chemical physics
– sea ice
CanESM5
AGCM5
OGCM5
CM
AM
CMOC5
CTEM5COUPLER
CanRCM5
CM
AM
CTEM5
AGCM5
CanCM3
AGCM3
OGCM3COUPLER
AGCM4
OGCM4COUPLER
CanCM4
CanSIPSCanCM5
AGCM5
OGCM5COUPLER CTEM5
CMOC5
CM
AM
Climate Model Development
Physical Properties Chemical Composition (direct measurements)
LightAbsorption derived BC
Light Scattering
Optical Depth Particle #Size Distribution
InorganicSpeciation
EC/OCConc.
(thermal evolution
technique)
EC/OC13C isotopes
(thermal evolution
technique & IRMS)
1 + 10 µm Calculated from Brewerand NOAA AOD
Optical Particle Counter (coarse) Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) Optical Particle counter (coarse)
3-w PSAP Aethalometer7-w 870 nm PAX*2012
1-w Nephelometer 870 nm PAX*2012
Hi-vol paper filter W14 Open filter, no size cut*7-day int sample <1 µm Teflon filter Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM)
Quartz filter 14-day integrated TSP 7-day integrated <1 µm
Aerosol MonitoringMultiple objectives and network optimization to support atmospheric process studies, model evaluation, estimation of source trends / impacts, and evaluation mitigation implementation
Specific policy interests, where scientific uncertainties are related to aerosols
• Complementing CO2 mitigation with Short Lived Climate Forcer reductions (methane, black carbon and ozone).
• Geo-engineering – solar radiation management• Seasonal to inter-annual to decadal forecasts• Regional to smaller scale climate scenarios, polar regions• AQ and Weather / Climate feedbacks• Role of open ocean / sea ice• Intercontinental transport to Arctic and Western Canada
EC contributions Technical support for instrument integration with the POLAR 6
prior to each of the studies in 2014 and 2015 .
Technical support for integration of instruments with M300 data acquisition system prior to each study in 2014 and 2015.
In-field technical and analytical support at Resolute summer 2014.
Field site access (Uccelet, Alert, Eureka, Whistler , Resolute…), fuel and campaign logistics
Scientific personnel for campaign coordination, data analyses, model development by the EC scientific investigators
AGCM5
OGCM5
CM
AM
CMOC5
CTEM5COUPLER
AGCM5
OGCM5
COUPLER CTEM5
CMOC5
CM
AM
CanESM5
CanRCM5
CanSIPSCanCM5
CM
AM
CTEM5
AGCM5
SMOKERegional DataCanada & US
GEMMeteorology Transport
Chemistry Interface
Global Emissions
Emission Interface
Gas PhaseChemistry
Aerosol Module
Equilibrium Scheme
CABMNETCARE
EC Tools and Programs
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090200
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Year
CO2 (ppm)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090200
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Year
Global Mean Screen Temperature (C)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 209013
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Year
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
Global Mean Precipitation (mm/day)
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000 2030 2060 2090
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3
3.05
Year
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
RCP 8.5RCP 8.5RCP 4.5RCP 4.5RCP 2.6RCP 2.6HistoricalHistoricalControlControl
Thin lines represent the 5 ensemble members Thick line represents ensemble-average
a) b)
c)
BLUE: CO2 ~ 420 ppm in 2100GREEN: CO2 ~ 540 ppm by 2100
To reach ~2o warming target, global CO2 emissions must peak immediately and decline to negative values before end of century blue RCP 2.6 (i.e. net CO2 extraction from atmosphere); or to reach ~3ºC target, global emissions must level off immediately green RCP 4.5.
2ºC average global warming target
Pre-industrial era