Environmental Factors Affecting Environmental Factors Affecting Salmon ProductionSalmon Production

Washington Department of Fish & Wildlife Science Division

Dave SeilerDave Seiler

Map

Coho spawner

Coho FryCoho Fry

Coho SmoltCoho Smolt

SunsetSunset Falls Falls

SF Skykomish RiverSF Skykomish River

Deschutes River screw trap Deschutes River screw trap at Tumwater Fallsat Tumwater Falls

Big Beef Creek during floodBig Beef Creek during flood

Bingham CreekBingham Creek

Skagit River traps from airSkagit River traps from air

Skagit River screw & scoop traps, near Mt VernonSkagit River screw & scoop traps, near Mt Vernon

Clearwater River scoop trap

W – Fence TrapW – Fence Trap

Adult Returns to Sunset Falls FishwaySF Skykomish River

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Return Year

Adu

lts

CohoChinookSteelhead

Deschutes River Adult Coho Returns

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Return Year

Ad

ult

s

Big Beef Creek Smolt Production Coho, Cutthroat & Steelhead

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Smolt Year

Sm

olt

Pro

du

ctio

n

Coho

Cutthroat

Steelhead

Bingham Creek Smolt Production Coho, Cutthroat & Steelhead

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Smolt Year

Sm

olt P

rodu

ctio

n

Coho

Cutthroat

Steelhead

Big Beef & Bingham CreeksCoho Smolt Productions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Smolt Year

Sm

olt

Pro

du

ctio

n

Bingham

Big Beef

Marine SurvivalPuget Sound Wild Coho

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Return Year

Mar

ine

Su

rviv

al

Big Beef Deschutes SF Skykomish Baker River

Marine SurvivalBingham Creek Wild Coho

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Return Year

Ma

rin

e S

urv

iva

l

Skagit River Wild Coho Smolt Production

R2 = 85%

R2 = 61%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Brood Year

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mill

ion

s)

Even YearsOdd Years

BY 2002Low Summer Flows

& Fall Floods

Chehalis River Minimum Spawning Flows

& Subsequent Coho Smolt Production, BYs 1980-2000

1997 1994

R2 = 73%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Minimum Spawning Flow (cfs)

Sm

olts

(m

illio

ns)

Actual

Low Escapement

Predicted

Bingham Creek Wild Coho, BYs 1980-2001 Smolt Production & Low Flows

1997 1993

2000

2001

1999

1996

1998

1995

R2 = 95%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150%

Puget Sound 60-day Average Low Flow (proportion)

Sm

olt

Pro

du

ctio

n

Before Screen Removal After Screen Removal in 1992

Bingham Creek Coho Smolt Production Related to Peak November Flows Following Screen Removal at Lake Nahwatzel

R2 = 97%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Satsop Peak Daily Flow (Nov)

% A

dd

itio

na

l S

mo

lts

Cedar River Wild Sockeye FrySurvival as a Function of Peak Incubation Flow

R2 = 75%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Peak Incubation Flow

Eg

g-t

o-M

igra

nt

Su

rviv

al

Egg-to-Migrant Survival and Peak Flowin the Skagit River

Wild Zero-Age Chinook: Brood Years 1989-2001

19931998

1997

1996 19942001

1999

1995

1989

1990

2000R2 = 90%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000

Peak Incubation Flow (cfs)

Eg

g-t

o-M

igra

nt

Su

rviv

al

Actual

2000 Outlier

Predicted

Clearwater River Wild Coho Smolt Production &Peak Flow During Egg Incubation, Brood years 1979-2001

Low Escapement

1997

1983

1994

R2 = 40%

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Peak Incubation Flow (cfs), Queets River

Sm

olt

Pro

du

ctio

n

Not Included

Predicted

In-River Survival of Hatchery Sockeye Fry

Released at Landsburg HatcheryCedar River 1995

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Flow (cfs)

Su

rviv

al

Actual

Predicted

Bear Creek Sockeye Fry Survival Related to Flows During Migration

Brood Years 1996 - 2003

2000 2002

2003 1999

1997 1998

2001

1996 Ice Storm

R2 = 62.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

50 100 150 200Average Flow (Feb 1 - March 31)

Eg

g-t

o-F

ry S

urv

ival

Cedar River Chinook Migration

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000M

igra

nts

0

1,000

2,000

3,000F

low

(cfs

)193,994 Fry

41,261 Smolts

Flow

2003

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul

Mig

ran

ts

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Flo

w (cfs)

10,994 Fry

21,255 Smolts

Flow

2001

Cedar River Wild Sockeye Fry Migration Timing

as a Function of Temperature

2000 BroodEarthquake &

Low Flows

R2 = 59%

60

70

80

90

100

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8

Average February Temperature (C)

Med

ian

Mig

rati

on

Dat

e

Proportion of PIT Tagged Chinook Detected at the Ballard Locks

Lake Washington Temperatures at Fremont BridgeAverage of years 2001 – 2003

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Statistical Week Tagged

Det

ectio

n R

ate

50

53

56

59

62

65

Tem

perature (F)

Cedar River Bear CreekTemp.

Release Site:

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Day

s E

xcee

ding

20

C

DAYS

PREDICTED DAYS

y=3980.7+2.033*year

R2=0.63

P<0.001

Number of Days Water Temperature Exceeded 20

degrees CLake Washington Ship Canal

Data provided by Fred Goetz, USACE

Yakima River Flow Range at Prosser During

Fall Chinook Smolt Migration

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

04/01 05/01 05/31 06/30Date

Flo

w

MinimumMean1992

Fall Chinook Smolt Migration PastProsser & West Richland

and Stream Temperature, Yakima River 1992

0

8

16

24

32

04/07 04/21 05/05 05/19 06/02 06/16

Date

Es

tim

ate

d M

igra

tio

n(t

ho

us

an

ds

)

50

60

70

80

90

Maxim

um D

ailyT

emperature (F

)

ProsserRichlandTemperature

74,000 smolts transported June 4-15