Environmental Hydrodynamic Modelling

Applied to Extreme Events in Caribbean and

Mediterranean Countries

J . Lugon J r. 1 , M.M. Ju l iano 2 , I . Kyr iak ides 3 , E .N. Yamasaki 4 , P.P.G.W. Rodr igues 5 , A . J . S i lva Neto 5

1

1 Instituto Federal Fluminense - IFFluminense, Macaé/RJ – Brazil2 University of Azores, Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal3 Dep. of Engineering, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus4 Dep. of Life and Health Sciences, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus5 IPRJ/UERJ, Nova Friburgo/RJ – Brazil

MAIN RESEARCH INTEREST AND TOOLS

2

MoHidHydrodynamic

Model

MoHid Water

MoHid Land

Model developed to simulate surface water bodies (oceans, estuaries, reservoirs).

Model with four compartments or mediums (atmosphere, porous media, soil surface, and river network)

Computational ModellingWater Transport

Beginning Cooperation with:1) University of Nicosia (Cyprus)2) Instec (Cuba)

INTRODUCTION

3

Hurricanes are extreme natural events with potentially devastating effects on society, both in terms of property damage and loss of human life.

In this work, the environmental hydrodynamics in the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas are modelled using downscaling techniques on the MOHID Platform.

The first critical extreme event of interest was Hurricane Irma (2017), with significant impact on Caribbean countries, such as Barbuda, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, while the second one was the Medicane Zorba, with significant impact on Greece (2018).

INTRODUCTION

4

https://edition.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma

INTRODUCTION

5

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/05/weatherwatch-greece-and-turkey-hit-by-unusual-medicane

6

MODEL DESCRIPTIONMOHID – 3D hydrodynamic computational model used to solve the

Navier-Stokes equations with Boussinesq and hydrostatic approach.

ui – velocity components in the cartesian components xi

Ƞ - Free surface elevation;f - Coriolis parameter; vh – Turbulent viscosity; ps - atmosphere pressure; ρ – density.

7

MODEL DESCRIPTION

GFSAtmospheric data

COPERNICUSMyOceanOceanic

parameters

GEBCO Bathymetric data

8

MODEL DESCRIPTION Horizontal Discretization Mediterranean Model Caribbean Model- 2D formulation – barotropic model 0.12 Mediterranean 0.12 Caribbean- 3D Formulation – baroclinic model 0.04 Greece 0.04 Cuba

9

MODEL DESCRIPTION Vertical Discretization Mediterranean and Caribbean Models Forcing2D formulation – barotropic model 1 sigma layer FES20123D Formulation – baroclinic model 7 sigma layers and 43 Cartesian layers GFS and MyOcean

10

RESULTS – CARIBBEAN MODELSeptember 8th to 10th, 2017: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

Win

ds

velo

city

GFS

Surf

ace

curr

ents

Cari

bbean M

od

el

11

RESULTS – CARIBBEAN MODELSeptember 8th to 10th, 2017: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

12

RESULTS – CARIBBEAN MODEL

Water Level Results Calculated for a Virtual Station located at Isabela de Sagua,

Cuba. Hurricane IrmaFrom September 2nd to 20th, 2017

13

RESULTS – MEDITERRANEAN MODELSeptember 27th to 29th, 2018: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

Win

ds

velo

city

GFS

Surf

ace

curr

ents

Medit

err

anean

Model

14

RESULTS – MEDITERRANEAN MODELSeptember 27th to 29th, 2018: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

15

RESULTS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

Water Level Results Calculated for a Virtual Station (Kalamai) located at

Kalamata, Greece - Medicane ZorbaFrom November 28th to October 06th, 2018

16

RESULTS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

Water Level Validation Calculated for a Virtual Station (Katacolo) located at Pyrgos, Greece - Medicane Zorba

From November 28th to October 03th, 2018

CONCLUSIONS

17

The downscaling models developed allowed the simulation of the interaction between the water and the atmosphere, and the computation of the variation of the sea surface height, currents, salinity, and temperature fields.

The results obtained encourages the use of MOHID´s Platform in natural disaster modelling, aiming future application to environmental parameters estimation and drift simulation of floating objects, with the formulation and solution of inverse problems.

CONCLUSIONS

18

Future work:Salinity intrusion and estuarine studies in Caribbean and Mediteranean modelling. Salinity intrusion in Macaé River and

estuary in Brazil.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

19

The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by FAPERJ, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, and CAPES, Fundação Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior.

Thanks!

REFERENCES

20

Lim, Y.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kovach, R; Molod, A. M.; Pawson, S. The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Scientific Reports. 8:16172 (2018). DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5. Romero, R. and Emanuel, K. Medicane risk in a changing climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(12), pp.5992-6001 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50475. Gaertner, M. Á. et al., Simulation of Medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble: Impact of Ocean–atmosphere Coupling and Increased Resolution. ClimDyn 51:1041–1057 (2018). DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3456-1. ACTION MODULERS. Mohid Studio. [Ref. November, 21st 2018]. Available from: http://actionmodulers.pt/products/mstudio/products-mohidstudio2015.shtml. MOHID Water Modelling System [Ref. [November, 21st 2018]. Available from: www.mohid.com. GEBCO - General Bathymetric Chart of Oceans. Gridded bathymetry data. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web: https://www.gebco.net/data\_and\_products/gridded\_bathymetry\_data. GFS - Global Forecast System. GFS Analysis. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs Carrére, L.; Lyard, F.; Cancet, M.; Guillot, A., Roblout, L. FES2012: A new global tidal model taking advantage of nearly 20 years of altimetry. In proceedings of the meeting 20 Years of Altimetry, Venice. (2012). COPERNICUS. Marine Environment Monitoring Service. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web: http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/?option=com\_csw\&task=results. Mellor, G.; Yamada, T. Development of a Turbulence Closure Model for Geophysical Fluid Problems. Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics, v. 20, n.4, pp. 851-875 (1982). Moura Neto, F. D. and Silva Neto, A. J. An Introduction to Inverse Problems with Applications. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN 978-3-642-32556-4. (2013). DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-32557-1. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Isabella de Sagua Station) [ref. May, 8th 2019] Accessed in Web https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/411.php. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Kalamai Station) [ref. May, 8th 2019] Accessed in Web https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/411.php.