Observational Issues for Weather & Climate Services

Dr. Marie ColtonDirector

Office of Research and Applications12 Nov 02

Environmental Services for the 21st Century

Supporting Programs

Summaryand Future Directions

Sustaining capabilities & servicesEl Niño Anomalies: 1997 - 1998

Topex/Poseidon POES

Fundamental components of operational, environmental services

for 21st Century

RequirementsRobust Observations

Attributes of Environmental ServicesUser-Inspired R&D Performance

Measures

Synthesizing User RequirementsEX: Sea Surface Temperature Requirements

•GODAE“GODAE requires global high resolution sea surface temperature in near real-time for assimilation into ocean models. Remote sensing missions planned in the near future broadly meet GODAE needs in term of sampling and accuracy, though they are marginal for some climate applications and for global high resolution problems”

•OceanOBS99“For remote sensing, continuity of the higher accuracy ATSR-class measurements needs to be addressed and further research is needed on the assimilation and use of geostationary data for improved temporal resolution and microwave measurements for better spatial coverage. “

•IGOS Ocean Theme“Continuation of the geostationary, and low-earth-orbit meteorological satellites that produce merged sea-surface temperature data products. A second issue is to consider how to transform ATSR-class instruments to operational systems.”

Ocean Observer User Requirements Document, Feb, 2000

(updating NPOESS IORD-II)

Systems Capabilities Thresholds Objectives a. Horizontal Cell Size Nadir, clear Worst case, clear

1 km 1.3 km

0.25km

b. Mapping Accuracy Nadir, clear Worst case, clear

0 km 1.3 km

0.1 km

c. Measurement Range -2o to 40o C -2 to 40 C d. Measurement Precision 0.2o C 0.1 C e. Measurement Uncertainty 0.5 C 0.1 C f. Refresh 6 hours 3 hours g. Long-Term Stability 0.1 C - h. Latency 90 minutes 15 minutes i. Geographic Coverage Global Ocean Global Ocean

j. . Orbit Constraints Sun Sync Polar Sun Sync. Polar

Justification: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (DOC/DoD): (USAF) The requirements for the stated thresholds are documented in AWS Report.

(USN) Navy Requirements Review concluded sea surface temperature details (i.e., frontal analysis) can be taken into proper consideration only by emerging high-resolution models using a polar-orbiting weather satellite. Horizontal resolutions of 4 km (global) and 1 km (regional) and a measurement accuracy of 0.5o C specify the resolution and accuracy needed. In addition, these resolution and accuracy requirements are needed to bound detection and accuracy parameters for emerging shallow water antisubmarine warfare systems.

(DOC) A regional resolution of at least 3 km at nadir (global resolution) and 1 km (0.25 km Objective) (regional resolution) is required to support coastal management missions within DOC, as described by NOAA Requirements for Support from Polar Orbiting Satellites, NOAA, DOC, June 1990, and in NOAA-DOD-NASA Triagency Polar Requirements Summary, NOAA, 1993. In order to be able to discern thermal details in bays and estuaries for analyses of coastal dynamics, human health, ecosystem sustainability, and resource management, this high-resolution capability is key.

Accommodating Change MULTIPLATFORM SST

Combine to obtain the optimal SST analysis

POES IR has high spatial resolutionGOES IR has high temporal resolutionMicrowave has all-weather capabilityBuoys, ships for in-situ observations

Quality Matters

Long-Term Calibration/Validation and Inter-Sensor and In-Situ Comparisons

Satellite-Buoy Matchup StatisticsGlobal Nighttime SST

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year of Comparison

Glo

bal B

ias

and

Scat

ter (

Deg

. C)

Bias Scatter

In orbit Approved Planned/pending approval

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

04/2001

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (IR MEASUREMENTS)

VIIRS/NPOESS C2/C1

MODIS/EOS-TERRA

MODIS/EOS-AQUA

VIIRS/NPP

AATSR/ENVISAT

AVHRR/NOAA

AVHRR/EPSAVHRR/NOAAERS-2

GLI/ADEOS-2SGLI/GCOM-B1 GCOM-B2

* Important additional/regional contributions from geostationary systems equipped with split window IR channels (GOES, MSG, INSAT-3D, FY2 C/D/E, MTSAT) not represented.

VIIRS/NPOES-C1/2

FY-1 C F1 D (MVISR) FY-3 (VIRR/MODI)

VIIRS/NPOES-C3Early morning orbit

Morning orbit

Afternoon orbit

Technology InsertionContinuous, but Evolving Instruments

System DesignAttributes of operational, environmental

services for a New Century

• The Basic Framework drawn from meteorological analogue– Real-time remotely sensed and in-

situ data– Assimilating numerical models– Quality control of observational

data sets and models– Real-time dissemination of

information products– User feedback mechanisms– Archival of observations and model

output– Highly educated workforce– Diverse basic and applied research

enterprise– Support by a scientific and

professional society

• But adapted for 2000+• …in an Internet world…

– Shortened development cycles– Experimental, distributed platforms– Innovation insertions

• …with immediate societal applications– GIS– Economic benefits– Education and Community building

• …with long-term continuity for monitoring and stewardship commitments

• …with performance measures applied to R&D, technology, operations, and user segments

• …and commercial opportunity

Excerpted from “Recognizing the Competing Values of R&D Organizations,”G. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories

Small, Flexible, Diverse Science

Evolutionary

INTERNAL

Revolutionary

EXTERNAL

Large, Controlled, Convergent Science

MASTER: BE SUSTAINABLE CREATE: BE NEW

IMPROVE: BE BETTER PRODUCE: BE FIRST

Incrementally new ideasDevelop teachable pointsCommunity leadershipGreat Contributors

Radically new ideasA new way to ask or thinkGlobal leadershipUnusual projects

Incrementally new productsStandardized applicationsReliable facilitiesGood Technical ManagementProjects on track

Radically new productsIdentify applicationsRapid DeploymentProjects have high yieldStrategic Partnerships

How well are we doing?

Value-oriented Performance Indicators for User-Inspired Science

Ongoing Programs

Solving the“simultaneous data equations” for Ocean, Weather, and Climate applications

Ocean Remote Sensing Program

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Participation in Climate Change Research Initiatives

For Whom are we working? Multiple users

Standalone and Merged Products for Ocean Weather and Climate

SST Anomalies- data fusion Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching

QuikSCAT Winds Sea WIFS Ocean Color

TOPEX Sea Level

ORAD ESTIMATED FY03 Income- $12,818KGIMPAP: $78K

1%

PSDI: $174K1%

ESDIM: $100K1%

Fed Salaries $2,516K20%

NASA: $2,904K22%

ORS: $4,064K 31%

NOS Coral Reefs: $67K1%

NCDC Coral Reefs: $12K0%

OAR Coral Reef Watch: $750K6%

Climate Services (OGP): $245K

2%

NOPP: $973K8%

IPO: $860K7%

ORAD base: $55K0%

CBLAST (ONR): $20K0%

ORS ESTIMATED FY03 Budget Plan - $4,064KOther: $283K

7%

Ocean Surface Winds: $253K

6%

Ocean Color: $271K7%

SAR: $323K8%

Altimetry/ Sea Ice: $43K1%

SST: $302K7%

CISO: $750K18%

External Grants: $422K10%

CoastWatch: $1,417K36%

FY03 Sources of Income and Planned Budget for Ocean Remote Sensing Line

TOTAL FY03 ORAD Planned Obligations: $12,818K

Coral Reefs: $943K FED: $114K A: $30K C: $244K T: $398K

E: $157K

Sea Ice: $180K FED: $180K

MGMT/Reserve/Ed./Outreach/Other:

$554K FED: $216K

A: $338K

CoastWatch: $1,537K FED: $120K C: $628K

T: $549K E: $240K

CISO: $750K A: $750K

SST: $1,067K FED: $413K A: $244K

C: $151K E: $259K

Ocean Color: $3,399K FED: $317K A:$1,201K

C: $391K T: $10 E: $1,480K

Altimetry: $1,490K FED: $829K A: $100K

C: $50K T: $189K E: $322K

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR): $633K

FED: $182K A: 5K C: 148K T: $44K

E: $254K

Ocean Surface Winds: $2,047K

FED: $145K A: $220K C: $293K T: $147K

E: $1,242K

Multi: $218K A: $218K

LEGENDFED = SALARIESC = CONTRACTS

T = TRANSFER TO FED AGENCY

A= ACADEMIAE = EXPENSES

Total $ and PercentFED: $2,516K 20%A: $3,106K 24%C: $1,905K 15%T: $1,337K 10%E: $3,954K 31%

Cutting the Pie to serve the many

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

The MISSION of the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation is to accelerate the quantitative use of satellite data in weather and climate prediction models for operational and research purposesGOALS of the JCSDA• Accelerate the use of data from the advanced

satellite sensors• Advance data assimilation technology• Standardize the data assimilation infrastructure

for nationwide uses• Accelerate the transition of the advanced data

assimilation scheme into the research and operational forecast models

FIVE YEAR SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES Improve radiative transfer models Prepare for advanced instruments Advance techniques for assimilating cloud

and precipitation information Improve emissivity models and surface

products Improve use of satellite data in ocean data

assimilation for weather and climate forecast

SPONSORS: NOAA, NASA , NPOESS IPO

PARTNERS: NOAA (NCEP, NESDIS, OAR), NASA GSFC/DAO, Navy N096/ONR, Air Force XOW, NCARPROGRAMMATIC APPROACHDirected Internal Research and InfrastructureExternal Research, Education, Outreach

FUNDING PROFILE

MAJOR FY02 ACCOMPLISHMENTS• Inclusion of cloud liquid water data• Inclusion of GOES-10 IR radiances• Inclusion of TRMM microwave imager precipitation

estimates into NCEP operational system• Inclusion of Quikscat data into NCEP operational

system:• 3-8% improvement in 10m winds vs mid-latitude

deep ocean buoys at 27 to 96h• 7-17% improvements for MSCP

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06750K 3.3M 3.3M (2.0M) 5.3M 5.3M

NESDISSpace-Based Climate

ObservationsData Records

Climate Monitoring & Assessment

Network Performance Monitoring

Reference Network

NOAA Climate Observations & Services

OARClimate Research

Long-Term Climate Modeling

Monitoring of Atm CompositionOcean Obs

Climate Obs & Services

Sustained ObsAssessments/

PredictionsOutreach

Trans. to Operations

NWSClimate Prediction

Regional/Local ForecastingIn Situ Obs

How do we get there?A Step-wise Approach

• Near term (0-12 mo): – Climate Obs & Svs Program planning– NRC Study on Climate Data Records from Operational Sats– NIST/NASA/NPOESS satellite calibration for measuring global climate

change– Satellite benchmark (CLIMSAT) requirements workshop

• Longer term (12-36 mo): Expand Joint Center activities to include climate applications (eg., ocean data assimilation)

• Intermediate term (6-18mo): Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical satellite record

Where do we want to go?Generate Climate Data Records (CDRs):

The Basis for all Climate Applications

• A CDR is a time series that accounts for sources of error and noise, producing a a stable, high-quality data record. Creation of CDRs requires in-depth attention to:– Calibration, inter-calibration and characterization of satellite

instruments– Development of processing algorithms– Detection and elimination of artifacts in the data set– Generation of stable climatic time series– Validation of data products– Analysis of data– Reprocessing as needed

• Comment: Ozone is the only CDR that comes close to satisfying these requirements, but provides example of necessary approach

How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)

Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record

• The AVHRR data record (1981 – present) has great potential as a source of CDRs– Sea Surface Temperature– Cloud cover and cloud properties– TOA Radiation budget– Aerosol optical depth– Land surface variables (Vegetation and snowcover)

• Computational resources are now easily affordable. AVHRR 1b data are available from the Satellite Active Archive

• Task is challenging, but low technical risk– Accurate calibration and orbital corrections required– Robust climate-quality algorithms must be developed– Incorporate latest science – Improved clear-sky detection will result in improved and consistent datasets of SST, aerosols

and land variables

GOES Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessing

BENEFITS

• A uniquely powerful dataset for studying both diurnal warming of the ocean surface and the evolution of mesoscale features such as fronts and eddies

• Improved retrieval quality • Derived from recharacterized and recalibrated archive of GOES radiance data

being produced by NCDC• Modeling of the diurnal thermocline• End result will be a consistent climate-quality SST dataset extending back to

1994, which will be made available to the various user communities via the GOES Active Archive being set up by NCDC

• Other derived products can be generated » Cloud cover and cloud properties» TOA Radiation budget» Aerosol optical Depth» Surface Winds

How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)

Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record

How do we get there? Intermediate term (6-18 mo)

Other examples: high priority CDRs from historical and current microwave satellite record

• The operational microwave instruments, MSU, SSMI/S and AMSU, will provide other climatologically important CDRs (essentially the “water component”)– Ocean parameters

• Water vapor, Precipitation• Sea Ice

– Atmosphere• Deep layer mean temperatures• Precipitation• Cloud liquid water

– Surface emissivity

• Low data volumes for microwave instruments make reprocessing easy and affordable

• Microwave CDRs will be blended with data from future instruments, CMIS and ATMS

Summary and Conclusions• Climate and Ocean services are particular forms of emerging “environmental services”

for 21st century that support multiple users and applications

• Sea surface temperature was used as “tracer” for such services. Science, budget, and user priorities will determine which parameters are “operationalized” first. Must address multiplatform measurements, applications, validations, archive and distribution for each observing system

• Operational weather and research satellites can provide the continuity and global coverage needed for monitoring climate variations

• NESDIS is incorporating climate requirements into NOAA satellite programs using environmental service framework

• Climate Reference Network is a very important in-situ component of the total observing system for climate

• NOAA satellite, data and forecast center programs can provide for end-to-end climate monitoring in support of NOAA and national Climate Programs

• Generation of CDR’s requires expertise in observing sensor as well as geophysics. Long-term expertise associated with the existing 25 yrs of satellite data is retiring

• Re-analysis costs for high-priority parameters (SST) are reasonable given today’s computational capability and should be initiated as “CDR Pathfinders”.

BACKUP/Additional Information

Where are we Now? NESDIS Activities in Support of Generating Climate Data Sets From

Satellites • NESDIS has long history of generating climatically useful data sets from its

satellites - mainly as part of real-time operational processing– Snow cover - over 30 years– Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) - over 25 years– Sea surface temperature - over 20 years– Surface vegetation index - over 20 years– Ozone - over 15 years

• NESDIS works with external community to generate satellite data sets– Archives all satellite observations and makes them available to external

community– Participates in national/international climate projects generating climate

data sets: WCRP’s ISCCP and GPCP, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Program– Assists external investigator groups: Spencer/Christy-MSU atmospheric

temperature; D.Robinson, snow cover

Problems to be Overcome in Constructing Long-Term Data Sets

• NOAA’s current satellite instruments (except for SBUV ozone) were designed mainly for weather observations

• Climate change signals are small (e.g., 0.2 C/decade)

• Global averages have large variability in space

• Sensors degrade in space

• Orbital drift• Afternoon orbits prior to NOAA-16

• Satellite to satellite discontinuities• No two instruments exactly alike