EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development Joel D. Scheraga & Jeffrey B. Frithsen

EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA

U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development

Joel D. Scheraga & Jeffrey B. Frithsen

Presentation to ReVA-MAIA Conference 2003 14 May 2003

Making a difference:Climate impacts assessment and advances in regional resource management

2EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA

Climate change poses risks and opportunities to a variety of systems and resources.

Scenario-based assessments are improving understanding of the range of potential impacts, and the associated uncertainties

Climate impacts are assessed relative to other stressors

Society has the ability to anticipate and prepare for change through adaptation.

Policy-focused assessments can provide timely and useful information to

decision makers about potential impacts and adaptation strategies.

But: Advances need to be made to learn how to: better integrate assessment findings into resource management decisions

effectively implement coping strategies

Key Messages

Health ImpactsWeather-related MortalityInfectious DiseasesAir Quality-Respiratory Illnesses

Agriculture ImpactsCrop yieldsIrrigation demands

Water Resource ImpactsChanges in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for water

Impacts on Coastal AreasErosion of beachesInundate coastal landsCosts to defend coastal communities

Forest ImpactsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest Health and Productivity

Species and Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and speciesSpread of invasive species

Climate Change: Potential Risks and Opportunities

Climate Changes

Sea Level Rise

Temperature

Precipitation


• Policy-focused assessments provide timely and useful information to decision makers and resource managers:

• about potential consequences of climate change

• about possible (human) adaptation strategies

• Policy assessments: Analytic, multidisciplinary activity

• Engages both analysts and end-users• issues, questions and outcomes of greatest concern are elicited from stakeholders

• Assessments can’t wait for “perfect” science• Example: Design & construction of expensive new sewers that account for risks

of “combined sewer overflow” and effects of climate change on precipitation

• An informed decision is better than uninformed decision

• Making no decision is equivalent to a decision

Policy-Focused Assessments


EPA-Regional Assessment Activities

Mid-AtlanticPennsylvania State

University

Great LakesUniversity of Michigan

Human HealthJohns Hopkins

UniversityGulf Coast

Southern University


Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) IdentifiedSystems and Resources Sensitive to Climate Change


• Improve watershed management to reduce flood and drought damages

and protect water quality

• Remove incentives for practices that place people, investments and

ecosystems in “harms way”

• Improve water pricing to increase efficient water use

• Foster continued adaptation in agriculture, especially for precision

agriculture and biotechnology

• Monitor for higher-risk climate-related disease vectors

Why haven’t these win-win actions been implemented?

MARA Identified Adaptation Options


• Adaptation comes at a cost.

• Strategies must be tailored to specific places.

• Strategies must be tailored to different demographic groups.

• Effects of climate change must be considered relative to other stressors and factors of concern.

• The systemic nature of climate impacts complicates the development of adaptation policy.

• Maladaptation can result in negative effects that are as serious as the climate-induced effects.

(Source: Joel D. Scheraga & Anne E. Grambsch, “Risks, Opportunities, and Adaptation to Climate Change,” Climate Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1998, 85-95)

Barriers to Implementation


1 Elicit information needs from decision makers (“Know thy endpoint”)

2 Evaluate effectiveness of alternative adaptation strategies (a priori)

3 Characterize uncertainties – and explain implications for outcomes of concern to decision makers

4 Develop decision support tools

5 Conduct “value of information” exercises

6 Communicate complex assessment findings

How to Improve Implementation


Advances need to be made in:

• Stakeholder identification: Identification of all interested constituencies (stakeholders) at outset of assessment

New stakeholders often identified during course of an assessment

• Risk perceptions: Understanding stakeholder perceptions What are their perceptions? Are perceptions scientifically sound? How are perceptions formed?

• Issue identification: Ascertaining issues of concern to stakeholders One approach: Initial workshops and subsequent consultations permit:

researchers to share best-available scientific information stakeholders to articulate their questions & concerns

1. Eliciting Information Needs


Example: Great Lakes Region Assessment

Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)• Focus on shipping, recreational boating, safety, infrastructure

• Lake Ecology (June 2001)• Focus on Productivity and fishing

• Agriculture (March 2002)• Focus on farming, insurance, adaptation

• Terrestrial Ecology (June 2002)• Focus on forests, wildlife, and timber industry

• Recreation (October 2002)• Focus will be on winter recreation and economy


• Can’t be cavalier about effectiveness of adaptive strategies

• Critical to assess factors affecting effectiveness of particular strategies

• Adaptive responses vary in effectiveness, as demonstrated by current efforts to cope with climate variability

• Effectiveness of adaptation strategies may vary from place to place

• Effects of adaptation strategies may vary across demographic groups

• Effects of adaptation strategies may be affected by other stresses

• Anticipate unintended consequences

2. Evaluating Alternative Adaptation Strategies


• Health Sector Assessment insight #1: Heat stress kills.

• Assessment insight #2: Heat waves are projected to increase in

severity and frequency

Assessment insight #3: Elderly, very young, and infirm are the most

vulnerable

Problem: People die of heat stress even under current conditions These are preventable deaths Example: 600+ people (mostly elderly) died in Chicago in 1995

Why?

Subsequent analysis: (1) Fear of crime; (2) Inability to pay for air conditioning Pilot implementation: Heat/Health Weather-Watch Warning System implemented in Philadelphia augmented by “buddy system” for elderly.

Example: Adapting to Heat Stress


• Many resource management decisions do not require predictions of

future changes

• Useful information from: scenarios “What if?” or “If… then…” analyses Historic analogs

• Regardless of approach, need to improve methods for: quantifying uncertainties displaying uncertainties characterizing implications for resource management decisions

• Also, resource managers need better tools to facilitate decision making under uncertainty

Characterizing Uncertainties

Example: Regional 50% Probability Estimates of Sea Level Rise in 2100 and 2200

Portland, ME19 43

New York, NY22 48

Seattle, WA19 42

San Francisco, CA15 36

Los Angeles13 32

Charleston, SC25 53

Grand Isle, LA55 112

Miami Beach, FL20 44

Source: U.S. EPA (1995).

Estimates are in inches.


Resource managers needs tools to help:

depict potential impacts

place effects of climate change in context of other stresses

display implications & tradeoffs of alternative management decisions

for outcomes of concern

for criteria of concern

facilitate decision making under uncertainty

Developing Decision Support Tools


Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS)

• 1993: HPS outbreak in SW with high death rate (>50%)

• Hypothesis: outbreak due to environmental conditions and increased rodent populations caused by unusual weather associated with 1991-92 ENSO

• Results of EPA-sponsored study: high-risk areas for HPS can be predicted over 6 months in advance requires satellite generated risk maps of climate-dependent land cover.

• Risk maps: developed in partnership with CDC and the Indian Health Service already being implemented for disease prevention in the southwest by the U.S. Department of

Health and Human Services

Example: Risk Maps to Guide Public Health Interventions


Ongoing provision of useful information in timely fashion requires prioritization of knowledge gaps

research funds are scarce

ensure timely provision of useful information to resource managers

“Value of Information” (VOI) calculations are one approach

VOI depends on: changing stakeholder needs and values

timeliness and relevance of information

new stakeholder questions

VOI exercise needs to be part of assessment process

“Value of Information” Exercises


The “most important information and research needs”:

frequency, timing and intensity of average and extreme weather

effects of average & extreme weather on: agriculture forests fresh water quantity and quality coastal zones ecosystems human health

benefits and costs of alternative adaptation options

improved methods for evaluating how proposed shifts in policy

might affect vulnerability to climate variability and change.

Next step: Further prioritization needed through VOI exercise

Example: High Priority MARA Information Gaps


• Complex issues

• Many uncertainties• potential consequences

• adaptation strategies

• Lack of salience Lag in impacts Impacts are diffuse Need to make climate change “real” for stakeholders

• Powerless?

Challenges in Communicating Assessment Findings

ICE

PEI

ICE

Example: Making Climate Change “Real” for Commercial Shippers - Ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

1987:Sea ice reduces wave action and amount of shore erosion.

Source: Environment Canada

PEI

CLOUDICE

CLOUD

ICE

March 25, 1987 7

March 26, 1999

1999: Little sea ice is present. (Most white areas are clouds.)

Shore exposed to wave action of winter storms.


I

Example: Making Climate Change “Real”


• Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business in

anticipation of future climate change? Yes… but only a few…

• Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business given

increased awareness of the sensitivity of outcomes to climate? Yes, a lot Many as “reactive adaptation” Examples:

Canadian ports Coastal zone protection Health monitoring and surveillance Migration corridors for wildlife Maple syrup industries in Canada and U.S. Ski resorts

Making a Difference in Practice?


Example: Commercial Shippers’ Concernsin Great Lakes Regions

Lake Michigan-Huron•For each inch of draft lost, 1,000 foot ships must offload 270 tons of freight

•Options proposed at Chicago Lake Levels Workshop:

•Lengthen shipping season•Dredging•Shallower-draft ships•Shift to land transport

Research Needs: •Does dredging exacerbate or ameliorate contaminated sediments?•What non-dredge options are there? •What are the consequences of each?


Summary

Stakeholder drivenquestions

Identify clear endpoints

Conduct assessment andIdentify uncertainties

Identify options for response

Communicate to stakeholders

Was informationReceived?

Evaluate Effectiveness of response

Gap between assessmentAnd response

Documents

EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development Joel D. Scheraga & Jeffrey B. Frithsen