ERA-CLIM2 3rd General Assembly Welcome and Introduction

©ECMWFERA-CLIM23rdGeneralAssembly(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza:WelcomeandIntroduc6on1

Roberto Buizza European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ERA-CLIM2 3rd General Assembly Welcome and Introduction


Welcome

Welcome..andthankyouto:§  Allofyouforyourhelpandengagement,especiallytotheWPLeadersfortheirleadershiprole§  Allforyourworkandprogress(wewillhearmoreaboutit..)§  MKacikforhersupportandhelpwiththeamendment(withthe12-monthextension)

APertheWS:§  PleaseletmeknowifyouobjectthatyourslideswillbemadeavailableonECMWFERA-CLIM2project

website:hUp://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/projects/era-clim2


Outline

1)  AdopWonoftheAgenda2)  Projectoverviewanddeliverables’status3)  Financials4)  LookingaheadinreanalysisproducWon(feedingC3SacWviWes)5)  ForthcomingmeeWngs


1.Adop7onoftheagenda

Tuesday 17 January (0900-1800) Elise Richter Saal

0900-1250 WP2 (Future coupling methods)

0900-0910 Overview of WP2 M. Martin

0910-0935 WP2.2 – SST assimilation developments M. Martin

0935-1000 WP2.2 – Sea-ice assimilation developments C.-E. Testut

1000-1025 WP2.3 – Ocean assimilation algorithm developments A. Weaver

1025-1050 WP2.3 – Coupled ensemble information A. Storto

1050-1110 Coffee break

1110-1135 WP2.4 – Land carbon component developments P. Peylin

1135-1200 WP2.4 – Ocean carbon component developments C. Perruche

1200-1225 WP2.5 – Coupled error covariances and bias correction K. Haines

1225-1250 WP2.5 – Coupled DA in idealised studies A. Vidard

1250-1430 Lunch break

1430-1800 WP3 (Earth System Observations)

1430-1455 WP3 Overview and accomplishments S. Brönnimann

1455-1520 Upper air deliverables contributed by Météo-France to WP3 S. Jourdain

1520-1555 Updating FFCUL contribution to WP3 (Data Rescue and Global Registry) M. A. Valente

1555-1620 RIHMI contribution to WP3 A. Sterin


1640-1705 Data rescue, use of satellites and integrating surface and sub-surface ocean temperature and salinity N. Rayner

1705-1730 EUMETSAT contribution to WP3 J. Schulz

1730-1755 Historical snow in situ data set and snow cover satellite products J. Poulliainen

1900 Dinner at Heurigen “Mayer am Pfarrplatz”, Pfarrplatz 2, 1190 Wien

End of second day

Monday 16 January (1300-1800), Kleiner Festsaal der Universität Wien

1230- Registration (Foyer kleiner Festsaal)

1300-1315 Welcome Vice Rector Prof. Regina Hitzenberger

1315–1340 Introduction Roberto Buizza

1340-1520 WP1 (Global 20th century reanalysis)

1340-1405 Overview WP1 Patrick Laloyaux

1405-1430 CERA-20C: climate indices, ocean and flux Eric de Boisseson

1430-1455 CERA-20C: uncertainty estimation Per Dahlgren

1455-1520 CERA-20C: observation feedback Yuki Kosaka


1540-1800 WP1 (Global 20th century reanalysis) and WP5 (Service developments)

1540-1605 CERA-SAT implementation Dinand Schepers

1605-1630 PISCES biogeochemical reanalysis Coralie Perruche

1630-1655 Land carbon reanalysis Philippe Peylin

1655-1720 Upper-air observations Per Dahlgren

1720-1745 Overview WP5 Patrick Laloyaux

1745-1800 Questions

1800-2000 Reception (Erika Weinzierl Saal)

2000 End of first day

Wednesday 18 January 2017 Elise Richter Saal

900-1200 WP4 (Quantifying and reducing uncertainties)

900-920 Radiosonde temperature homogenization L. Haimberger

920-940 Towards homogenizing land surface data: QC and breakpoint detection

M. A. Valente

940-1000 Hurricanes in ERA-20C and CERA-20C S. Brönnimann

1000-1020 Reproducing upper air temperature, humidity and wind characteristics in late 1930s-1960s by reanalyses

A. Sterin

1020-1040 Validating daily precipitation totals by means of ETCCDI M. Ziese


1100-1120 Homogenization of global radiosonde humidity data M. Blaschek

1120-1140 Coupled energy budget diagnostics of the Arctic M. Mayer

1140-1200 Uncertainties on the land carbon cycle re-analysis P. Peylin

1200-1220 Instructions to Working Groups (break out sessions)

1220-1400 Lunch break

1400-1600 Working Groups (break-out sessions, WP1/WP2/WP3/WP4)

WG1/5 Marietta Blau Saal

WG2 Sitzungszimmer VAM2

WG3/4 Erika Weinzierl Saal


1630-1830 Report of WG discussions, back in Elise Richter Saal

1630-1700 Short report from each breakout session Session chairs

1700-1730 Recommendations from advisors Sakari Uppala

1730-1830 Discussion

End of General Assembly


2.TheFP7ERA-CLIM2project(2014-2017)

Goal:Produc,onofaconsistent20th-centuryreanalysisofthecoupledEarth-system:atmosphere,landsurface,ocean,sea-ice,andthecarboncycle

Maincomponents:

•  Produc,onofcoupledreanalyses,for20Candthemodernera (WP1)•  Researchanddevelopmentincoupleddataassimila,on (WP2)•  Earthsystemobserva,onsforextendedclimatereanalyses (WP3)•  Evalua,onofuncertain,esinobserva,onsandreanalyses (WP4)•  Improvingaccesstoreanalysisdataandinputobserva,ons (WP5)


2.Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP1

Timeseriesofthemul6variateENSOindexforERA-20C,CERA-20CandtheWolter&Timlinobserva6onalproduct(MEI.ext)TheElNiñoandLaNiñaeventsarecapturedbythetworeanalyses

§  CERA-20Cdatasetiscompleted(1901-2010)§  CERA-SATproducWonhasstarted(2008-2016)§  OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyERA-20Cis

completedassessmentofthesea-airCO2fluxshowspromisingresultswhencomparedtoobservaWons,beUerassessmentoftheinterannualvariabilityisrequired

§  OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyCERA-20Cscheduledfor2017

§  LandcarbonreanalysisbasedonORCHIDEEforcedbyCERA-20Ciscompleted

§  ConsolidaWonoftheORCHIDEEmodelforlandcarbonreanalyses

§  LandcarbonreanalysesbasedontheconsolidatedORCHIDEE,forcedbyCERA-20CandCERA-SATarescheduledfor2017


2.Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP2§  ManyWP2contribuWonstotheWMOCoupledDataAssimilaWonWorkshopinToulouse,

Oct2016:•  6oralpresentaWonsfromWP2partners•  BreakoutdiscussiononchallengesandprioriWesforcoupledDAforreanalysis.

§  DeliverableD2.4completedbyCMCC:“StronglycoupleddataassimilaWonexperimentswithlinearizedocean-atmospherebalancerelaWonshipsandhybridcovariances”

§  PaperpublishedoncarboncycleassimilaWon(Peylinetal.,GMD).§  Progressonotherupcomingdeliverables–seelaterpresentaWons.

Towards strongly coupled DA:

Variance explained for 2m air temp from a linearised air-sea balance operator


2.Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP3§  Conference:ObservaWonsforReanalyses(22June2016,Maynooth,Ireland,togetherwithACRE

meeWng)§  ConWnuaWonofdatarescue:Deliverable3.4§  RTTOVupdatesandoceandatabaseupdatesdelivered,earlysatellitedataalmost§  Casestudy“Avalanchesduringthewinterof1916”:ERA-CLIM2datarescue,ERA20Creanalysis,

anddynamicaldownscaling


2.Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP4

Goal:Op,mizeuseofinputdata,es,mateandreduceuncertain,esinreanalysesandtheirinputdata

§  PrecipvalidaWonwithDWDdatahasprogressedquitefar§  ERA-preSATpapersubmiUed,successfuljointconferencewithACREinMaynooth§  GoodprogressincoupledevaluaWonofoceanicandatmosphericreanalysisdata§  QCfornewlydigiWsedupperair,surface,snowdatafromRussiaandothercountriesalmost

completed§  CHUANv2.0datamergedwithavailabledata,feedbackdataforallWmeseriescalculatedfor

variousfullandsurfacedataonlyreanalyses§  GoodprogressinRS-ThomogenizaWonbackto1939,RS-HhomogenizaWonbackto1979

Example:ERA-20CandCERA-20Cmonthlyprecipita7onensemblevsGPCCprecipita7onoverIndianMonsoonregion


2.Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP5§  TechnicaldevelopmentinMARStosupport

archivingandretrievalofNetCDFformathasbeendone:weareabletoarchiveandretrieveNEMOmonthlymeansinNetCDF.

§  TheconsolidaWonofCERA-20Cdataintotheuserversionhasstarted,andwillbedoneinphases:•  Complete:Atmosphericandwavemonthly

means:30Tbytes.AvailableviathePublicDataServer

•  Inprogress:Atmosphericandwaveanalysis(allmembers)andensemblemeansandstandarddeviaWon:200Tbytes.ExpectedendJan2017

•  Followedbyforecast(allmembers),observaWonfeedbackandoceancomponent:Over1Pbyte.Expectedformonth42.

§  WehaveextendedtheframeworkofthePublicDataServertoreportonregisteredusersandaccessstaWsWcs,suchasvolumeandfieldsretrieved.Thishasbeendoneusingotherdatasets,butthereporWngwillbeavailablefortheaccesstoCERA-20Cduring2017.


2.Projectstatus:deliverablesWP1

Delivered DelayedStatus:

D1.1 CERA-20C 24 36 Delivered.

D1.2 CERA-20C/Carbon 36 48ExtensionallowscarbonreanalysestouseatmosphericforcingsfromERA20C.

D1.3 CERA-SAT 36 48(parWally)

ExtensionallowstoestablishtheCERA-SATsystem,andrunitforaasubperiod(numberofyearstobeconfirmedoncesystemisupandrunning)between1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproducWonspeed

D1.4 CERA-SAT/Land 36 48(parWally)

ExtensionallowsCERA-SAT/Landsystemtobeimplementedandrunoverasubperiodbetween1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproducWonspeed.

D1.5 StatusreportWP1 8 8 Delivered




D2.1 SSTassimilaWoncode(METO) 27 39 ExtensionallowsmoreWmefortesWngofdevelopmentsD2.2 Sea-iceassimilaWoncode(MERCO) 27 39 ExtensionallowstesWngtobedoneinmorerecentversionofsystemD2.3 EnsembleBNEMOVARcode(CERFACS) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.4 ReportonensemblecovariancesincoupledDA(CMCC) 24 36 DeliveredD2.5 Reporton4D-Vartests(INRIA) 27 39 Extensionallowshigherqualitydeliverable

D2.6 ReportonlandcarbonmodelopWmisaWon(UVSQ) 34 46DelayoftheproducWonoftheclimatereanalysisinWP1putssomeconstraintontheCcyclereanalysis

D2.7 Reportonoceanbiogeochemicalcouplingmethods(MERCO) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.8 Reportonstrengths/weaknessesofcoupledDA(UREAD) 18 18 DeliveredD2.9 Reportoncouplederrorcovariances(METO) 18 18 DeliveredD2.10 ReportoncoupledmodeldriPanbiascorrecWon(UREAD) 34 46 ExtensionmakesitpossibletodeliverahighqualityreportD2.11 ReportonfullycoupledDA(INRIA) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.12 Statusreport(METO) 8 8 Delivered




D3.1 Datacatalogue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.2 PrioriWesfordatarescue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.3 Meta-databaseupdate(UBERN) 36 48 conWnuousD3.4 In-situdataforreanalysis(UBERN) 24 36 SpanishEbroandNorthAfricanupperairnotinWmeD3.5 In-situdata(other)(UBERN) 30 42 ChiledatanotinWmeD3.6 Quality-controlledversionofD3.4(UBERN) 36 48 ShiPindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,InternaWonaldaysD3.7 Quality-controlledversionofD3.5(UBERN) 33 48 ShiPindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,InternaWonaldaysD3.8 RTTOVupdates(METO) 36 36 deliveredD3.9 Earlysatellitedata(METO) 36 36 TobesubmiUedbyendofJanuary(METO);

D3.10 AVHRRpolarwinds(EUMST) 24 36

ExpectedinM48-DelayedduetoupdatesofoperaWonalEUMETSATalgorithmanddelayednewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;itwillcausenootherdelaysfortheproject;

D3.11 SSM/T2andAMSU-B/MHSradiancedata(EUMST) 24 24

ExpectedinM42-EUMETSATClimateMonitoringSatelliteApplicaWonFacility(CM-SAF)diddeliveranATBDandapreliminaryversionofthedatarecordbutnottheprocessortoEUMETSAT;furthermore,theearlyversionofdatahadissuesthatresultedintheneedtoupdatetheinter-satellitecalibraWonmethod;itwillcausenofurtherdelaystotheproject'sdeliverables;

D3.12 GeostaWonaryradiancedata(EUMST) 36 36

ExpectedinM42-RecalibraWonofMeteosatIRchannelsisfinished;whatissWllmissingistheintegraWonintotheoriginalimagefiles,whichisdelayedduetothedelayeddeliveryofthenewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;thiswillcauseadelayindeliverableD3.13;

D3.13 AMVfromMFG(EUMST) 36 42ExpectedinM48-ThiswillbedelayedduetodependenceonD3.12;thiswillnotcauseanydelaytootherproject'sdeliverables;

D3.14 RadiooccultaWondata(EUMST) 36 36

ExpectedinM48-DelayedduetoerrorfoundinGRASreprocesseddata;asecondprocessingoftheGRASmissiondatahasbeenperformedbutothermissiondataarependingtheprocessing.

D3.15 HadISST2update(METO) 18 18 deliveredD3.16 Icethicknessdata(METO) 12 12 deliveredD3.17 Oceandatabaseupdate(METO) 24 30 delivered

D3.18 Snowdataproduct(FMI) 24 36

ExpectedinM42-FMIinvesWgaWonontheopWmumsetofcalculaWonparametersofSWEassimilaWonsystemissWllgoingon(adetailedinvesWgaWonneededinordertoobtainanimprovedproductwhencomparedwiththeoriginalGlobSnowSWEClimateDataRecord).

D3.19 Qualitycontrolledversionofsnowdatabase(insitu)(FMI) 36 48 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD3.20 HadISDupdate(METO) 12 12 delivered




D4.1 RSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 12 20 delivered

D4.2 UpdatedRSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 36 48

ERA5andaERA-preSATrerunareexpectedtobemuchbeUerreferencethanpreviousreanalysesbutarenotavailableinmonth36.Valueofdeliverablewouldbesignificantlydegraded

D4.3 QCforobsfromFFCUL(FFCUL) 36 48

FFCULhaddifficulWesinpersonnelrecruitmentandworkshardondigiWzaWonofChileanandotherdata.Thishaspriorityfornow.QCaspectwouldimprovealotif12monthsmoreareavailable

D4.4 VisualizaWontoolforQC(FFCUL) 12 12 deliveredD4.5 QCforupper-air,surface,andsnowobs.(RIHMI) 36 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD4.6 MethodologyforquanWfyingobserror(UBERN) 36 36 delivered

D4.7 VerificaWonofprecipitaWonagainstGPCC(DWD) 36 48DatasetwillbereadybutvalidaWonofERA5,CERA-20Cwouldnotbepossible

D4.8 Globalenergy,water,carboncycles(ECMWF,UNIVIE,UVSQ) 36 48 EvaluaWonswithoutERA5,CERA-20CwouldbemuchlessinnovaWveD4.9 Upperairdataqc(UBERN,RIHMI) 24 24 deliveredD4.10 Comparisonwithotherreanalyses(UNIVIE;ECMWF) 36 48 ComparisonswithoutERA5,CERA-20CwouldbemuchlessinnovaWve

D4.11 Lowfrequencyvariabilityandtrends(ALL) 36 48WithoutcompletedERA5,CERA-20CmanyevaluaWonswouldhavetobebasedondatanotcreatedinERA-CLIM2

D4.12 Uncertaintyofinputparametersforcarbonbudget(UVSQ) 12 20 deliveredD4.13 Confidenceintervalsoncarbonfluxes(UVSQ) 36 48 ThosewouldhavetobebasedonexisWngERA-20C,notnewCERA-20C

D4.14ComparisonofCTESSEL,ORCHIDEEfluxesWmates(ECMWF,UVSQ,UNIVIE) 36 48

ThiscouldbedonepartlywithunfinishedCERA-20CbutmuchvaluewouldbeaddedifcompleteCERA-20Csetwereavailable


2.Projectstatus:deliverablesWP5-WP6-WP9


D5.1 NetCDFinMARS 12 30 Design,specificaWonsandtechnicalworkcompleted.

D5.2 CERAdataservices 24 48

ConsolidaWonofdataintouserversioninprogress.Monthlymeansreleased.ExpectedcompleWonformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMeeWng.

D5.3 Reportondataservices 24 48

TechnicalworkcompletebasedonERA-20C.D5.3willreportondataservicesforyear2017.xpectedcompleWonformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMeeWng.

D6.1 Projectwebsite 10 10 deliveredD6.2 Projectbrief1 12 12 deliveredD6.3 Workshopreport1 19 19 deliveredD6.4 Projectbrochure 22 36 ExpectedinM39D6.5 Policybrief2 24 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD6.6 Workshopreport2 31 31D6.7 Policybrief3 36 48D6.8 DisseminaWonplan 4 4 deliveredD6.9 Policybrief4 n/a 48 D9.1 CoordinaWonplan 36 48D9.2 Commonwebpage 6 6 deliveredD9.3 Commonlessonslearned 24 24 deliveredD9.4 MeeWngminutes 36 48


3.FinancialsWiththeextensionoftheprojectthepaymentsareasfollowing:1.  Pre-financing(60%withretenWonof5%guarantee

fund)–Q1-20142.  FirstinterimaPermonth18(upto90%ofthe

budget)–Tobepaidinthecomingdays/weeks3.  FinalpaymentaPermonth48(remainingbalance)

Thefirstinterimpaymentwasalreadyreceivedbythepartnerson3March2016.Soallpartnersshouldhavereceived90%oftheiragreedreimbursements.WiththeongoingreporWngnowtheconsumpWonisbalancingthesepaymentsorgoevenbeyond.ThefollowinggraphsillustratesthebudgetconsumpWonat30/06/2015,whenpartnersreportedtoCoordinator.ThenextreporWngupdateisexpectedinFeb2017,withconsumpWonsupto31/12/2016.

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%

0€100,000€200,000€300,000€400,000€500,000€600,000€700,000€800,000€900,000€

1,000,000€

ECMWF

METO

EUMST

UBE

RN

UNIVIE

FFCU

L

RIHM

I

MER

CO

METFR

DWD

CERFAC

CMCC

FMI

URE

AD

INRIA

UVS

Q

CNRS(T

P)

CEA(TP)

Partners'consumpWon-30/06/2015

RequestedEUContribuWon BudgetConsumpWon%

0€

500,000€

1,000,000€

1,500,000€

2,000,000€

2,500,000€

3,000,000€

ECMWF

METO

EUMST

UBE

RN

UNIVIE

FFCU

L

RIHM

I

MER

CO

METFR

DWD

CERFAC

CMCC

FMI

URE

AD

INRIA

UVS

Q

CNRS(T

P)

CEA(TP)

Partners'totalandconsumedbudget(30/6/15)

RequestedEUContribuWon MaximumallowableEUcontribuWon


4.ECMWFreanalysisproduc7on

20212020201920182017201620152014

ERA-Interim&ERA-Interim/Land(1979-todate)

ERA-20CERA-CLIM

ERA-CLIM2 CERA-20C CERA-SAT

NEWH2020CALL?

ERA5(1979-todate)C3S

CERA100(conven,omalobs,1918-2018)???

ERA6(1979-todate)C3Sin2019/20

ECMWF

ECMWF

ORA-S5(Oceanandsea-ice,¼deg,z75)–1979-..


5.ForthcomingERA-CLIM2mee7ngs

ERA-CLIM2WSsandGAs:§  16-18Jan2017:ERA-CLIM23rdGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofVienna-Austria)§  19Jan2017:ERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMeeWng(Univ.ofVienna-Austria)§  12-14Dec2017-ERA-CLIM24thGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofBern-Switzerland)–Mee6ng

star6ngat13.30onTuesday12Dec§  15Dec2017(Friday;amonly)-M48ReviewMee6ng(Univ.ofBern-Switzerland)

RelatedWSs/Seminars/Conferences:§  97thAMSAnnualMeeWng(22-26Jan2017;SeaUle,US)§  EGUMeeWng(23-28Apr2017;Vienna,Austria)§  ECMWFAnnualSeminaron‘EnsemblepredicWon:past,presentandfuture’(Reading,UK)§  5thInternaWonalConferenceonReanalysis(ICR5;13-19Nov2017;Rome,Italy)

Documents

ERA-CLIM2 3rd General Assembly Welcome and Introduction