ESCB statistics for European policy making Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA countries and linkages with BPM6 and GFSM 2014 Istanbul,

ESCB statistics for European policy making

Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA countries and linkages with BPM6 and GFSM 2014

Istanbul, 6-8 May 2015

Gabriel QuirósHead of DivisionMacroeconomic StatisticsEuropean Central Bank

Rubric

www.ecb.europa.eu ©

1 The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM

2

Outline

Production of statistics 3

2 Legal framework for statistics

Rubric


FI

BE

LU

NLDE

FR

ES

IT

AT

SI

BG

ROHU

PL

CZSK

EE

LV

LT

SE

UK

GREU Member States with a derogation

HREuro area: 19 EU Member States which have adopted the euro

Eurosystem: ECB and national central banks of the 19 EU Member States of the euro area

European System of Central Banks (ESCB): ECB and national central banks of the 28 Member States of the European Union

The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM

Single Supervisory Mechanism: ECB and the national supervisory authorities of the euro area and other EU countries which choose to participate

Rubric


Define and implement monetary policy

Promote smooth operation of payment systems

Banking supervision and contribute to stability of the financial system

Monetary policyFinancial Stability/

Banking Supervision

Payment systems

Key ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB functions

4


Rubric


own produced statistics

European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics)

data from commercial data providers

Monetary and financial statistics

External statistics

Securities statistics

Quarterly euro area accounts

Supervisory statistics

Other statistics

Statistics supporting decision making

5

ESCB European statistics


Rubric


Article 338 TFEU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Treaty of the EU

European Statistical SystemRegulation 223/09

ECB collecting statisticsRegulation 2533/98

EP and Council Regulationsaddressed to Member States

ECB Regulationsaddressed to reporting agents

ECB Guidelines

NCBs

Eurosystem

…

Short-term Statistics

HICP

ESA 2010 transmission programme

Investment Funds

…Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds

BOP

MUFA

GFSMFI

Balance sheet

Interest rates

Financial Vehicle Corporations

Legal framework for European statistics

Securities Holdings

6

Rubric


Legal framework for ECB statistics

7

SSM tasks

CR2533/98

Capital Requirements Directive and

Regulation (CRD-IV)

EBA’s Implementing Technical Standards

(ITS)

CorepFinrep....

EC

B

Reg

ulat

ions

EC

B

Gui

delin

es

Additionalinformation/new data

needs

• legal act(s) under SSM regulation

ESCB tasks

SSM Regulation 1024/2013

Legal basis for new ECB tasks - SSM Regulation. Council Regulation No 1024/2013: “confers to the ECB specific tasks relating to the prudential supervision of credit institutions”

Issue: multi-purpose information

Rubric

www.ecb.europa.eu © 8

EU National Central Banks

ECB

EU National StatisticalInstitutes

Responsibility• General economic statistics• non-economic statistics

• Monetary and Financial statistics

• Quarterly financial accounts• Financial stability statistics

Memorandum of Understanding

Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics

European System of Central Banks

(ESCB)/Eurosystem

European Statistiscal System

(ESS)

Shared responsibilities•Balance of Payments•European Sector Accounts •Statistical Infrastructure

+ new: European Statistical Forum

Statistics Committee European Statistical Systems Committee

Responsibility

Governance of European statistics (1)

Rubric


The ESCB and the European Statistical System (Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes) develop, produce and disseminate European statistics

under separate legal frameworks, reflecting their respective governance structures

Memorandum of Understanding between ESS and the ESCB (signed on April 2013) enhanced cooperation:

European Statistical Forum – strategic cooperation

work jointly in Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments statistics (CMFB) - operational cooperation

9

Governance of European statistics (2)

Rubric


Statistics Committee (STC)

ECB Executive Board

ECB Governing Council

WG on Monetary

and Financial Statistics

WG on Euro Area

Accounts

WG on External Statistics

WG on General

Economic Statistics

WG on Government Finance Statistics

WG on Statistical

Information Manageme

nt

WG on Securities Statistics

Decision-making bodies for ECB statistics

10

Statistics Committee in SSM Composition

(STC in SSM)

ECB Supervisory Board

WG on Supervisory Statistics

Rubric


ECB legal instruments concerning statistics

• Regulation – directly imposes obligations on reporting agents in euro area

• Guideline – imposes obligations on Eurosystem (including ECB)

• Recommendation – informs statistical authorities other than central banks in euro area of ECB requirements; not legally binding

• Decision – makes it public Governing Council decisions which impose obligations on addressees; can also be without addressees

• Notice – to inform/explain

• Opinion – expression of ECB view, usually in response to a consultation under Treaty/Statute

Also Memorandum of Understanding

11

Rubric


Statistical work at the ECB is the result of team effort

• NCBs/NCAs: - Collection of data from reporting agents, other national statistical authorities,

other national sources- All contact with reporting agents/representative bodies- Perform tasks in accordance with EU/ECB legal acts- Responsibility for meeting the ECB’s/SSM requirement- Compilation and publication of national aggregates/contributions to

aggregates

• ECB: - Collection of data from other Community/international sources (e.g. Eurostat,

BIS)- Quality assurance processes - Compilation and publication of euro area aggregates

• Shared: - Conceptual/development work, development of legal/technical infrastructure (ECB in lead)- Participation in Community/international statistical committees

12

Rubric


Compiling euro area aggregates

• Complying with international statistical standards SNA 2008, ESA 2010, BPM6

• Usual approach – build from national contributions.

• Importance of harmonization of the national contributions.

• Some euro area aggregates are a simple sum of (harmonized) national data, but some are not.

• National money stock commonly includes deposits held by residents with banks located in the country concerned. Euro area money stock includes deposits held by residents of all euro area countries with banks (MFIs) located anywhere in the euro area. It exceeds the sum of national money stocks by the amount of cross-border depositing within the euro area.

• National balance of payments statistics measure all cross-border transactions of residents of the country concerned. The b.o.p. of the euro area excludes cross-border transactions within the euro area. Gross flows in the euro area b.o.p. fall short of the sum of national b.o.p. flows by the amount of these cross-border flows within the area.

13

Rubric


National and euro area monetary aggregates

In German M3 In neither German nor Austrian M3 In Austrian M3

Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Germans with MFIs Germans with MFIs Austrians with MFIs Austrians with MFIs in Germany in Austria in Germany in Austria

All the above are components of euro area monetary aggregatesI----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I

14

Rubric


Reference reporting population for ECB statistics

• Central banks, other MFIs

• Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries

• Post office giro institutions

• Entities holding cross-border positions or carrying out cross-border transactions

• Issuers of securities or e-money

The reference reporting population is confined to entities resident in the euro area (but the ECB may collect from them consolidated data which includes information relating to their branches outside the euro area).

This is all set out in Community legislation Regulation No 2533/98 - notable amendment here in No 951/2009 is extension of reference reporting population to include insurance corporations and pension funds.

15

Rubric


Brief overview of own produced statistics

• MFI (banking) balance sheets; monetary aggregates and counterparts

• MFI interest rates

• Securities issues and holdings

• Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries

• Financial markets

• Payment systems

• Balance of payments

• International investment position

• Other external statistics

• Government finance

• Euro area integrated institutional sector accounts

• Supervisory statistics

[MFI = monetary financial institution]

16

Rubric

www.ecb.europa.eu © Page 17

Supervisory data

Module 1: Core supervisory data: ITS data1

2 Module 2: MFI Statistics, Securities Holdings Statistics

3 Module 3: Granular Analytical Credit Database

4Module 4: Ad-hoc data

(top-down stress testing, surveys)

5Module 5: Other non-ITS supervisory data

(interest rate risk reporting)

6Module 6: Public disclosure

(Pillar 3, financial markets data)

The Supervisory statistical requirements are articulated in the SSM Supervisory Reporting Manual and form the main source and basis of requirements to DG/S.

covered

available, further requirements

Under development

covered ,DG/S to provide support

covered, but possiblefurther requirements

not harmonised butcovered

Rubric


DG-S - data flows for statistical and supervisory tasks

18

SSM groups & solo banks

ECB DG-Statistics

NCBs / NCAs

Statistics (aggregated and granular)

Monetary Policy,

Payments, etc

Executive Board –

Monetary Analysis

Supervisory Board –

Supervisory analysis

An

alysis D

issemin

ation

Pro

cessing

Recep

tion

Supervisory data (Pilot, FINREP/COREP, stress test)

Supervision

Economics, Research, Operations, Payments,

General Public

DG I to DGIV, Joint Supervisory Teams (on and off site

inspections)

ESRB, EBA,FSB

Rubric


The Sequential Approach – Process for reporting ITS data

• The ITS data are reported to the EBA following a sequential approach. NCAs participating in the SSM (SSM-NCAs) send the data to the ECB, which as a competent authority, immediately submits the reports to the EBA

The sequential approach reduces reporting burdens and redundant data flows

NCA

NCA

NCA

NCA

NCA

19

DG-S - data flows for supervisory tasks

Rubric


Thank you for your attention!!!

Rubric


Annex

Rubric


Sources: for euro area and EU: ECB, Eurostat, national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations; for the United States, Japan and China: national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations.

* Purchasing Power Standards (PPSs) in euro, calculated on the basis of PPP rates relative to the euro area (Euro 18 = 1).** refers to 2011*** refers to 2012

Total population (millions)

GDP (PPP*, € trillions)

GDP per capita (PPP*, € thousands)

Share of world GDP (PPP*, %)

Exports (goods and services, % of GDP)

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)

Gross saving (% of GDP)

Reference year: 2013

335

9.6

28.6

12.1

27.0

17.7

20.3

508

13.5

26.6

17.1

18.2

17.3

19.0

316

13.0

41.2

16.5

13.5

18.9

18.0

128

3.6

28.1

4.5

17.0

21.7

24.5**

1,361

12.5

9.2

15.9

25.5***

46.5***

51.0***

€ -18 1 EU-28

Key characteristics of the euro area

1) Lithuania became the 19th euro area member state on 1.1.2015.

Rubric


Monetary and financial statistics

• Monetary, financial institutions and financial markets statistics

Monetary aggregates and counterparts, minimum reserves

Interest rates, securities issues

Investment funds

Financial Vehicle corporations

Financial soundness indicators, financial integration indicators

Consolidated Banking Data

Financial market statistics - yield curve, PDFs -

23

Rubric


1st publication 20 September 2012

ESRB Risk Dashboard:http://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/rd/html/index.en.html

And also in SDW:http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003268

e.g. the ESRB Risk Dashboard

RDB as a risk assessment tool (input to further systemic risk analysis)

RDB as communication tool

50 indicators regarding the 6 identified risk typologies

Interlinkages and composite measures of systemic risk

Risk C

ategories

Macro risk

Credit risk

Funding and Liquidity

Market risk

Profitability and Solvency

24

ECB statistical support to the ESRB

The ECB has to provide statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (Council Regulation 1096/2010)

Rubric


External statistics

Euro area balance of payments and international investment position - including international reserves

• Monthly balance of payments

• Quarterly breakdown by main partners

• International investment position (balance sheet) and link to balance of payments

Includes geographic breakdown of the euro area current and capital account, international investment position and trade in goods

Nominal and real effective exchange rates of the euro

Rubric


Government Finance statistics

Protocol on the EDP: 3% and 60% of GDP as reference values for government deficit and debt reserves

Complete set of government accounts (revenue, expenditure, debt and deficit-debt adjustment) providing an integrated overview of the government balance and debt in annual frequency

Fiscal discipline is essential for the stability of the euro

• keeping price stability: direct (e.g. VAT) and indirect effects (wages)

• containing inflation expectations: rising government debt may lead to pressure on the ECB to tolerate higher inflation to erode the real value of debt

• keeping financial markets stable: interest rate on government debt in one country is affected by the evolution of other countries deficits and debts Quarterly breakdown by main partners

Rubric


Euro area accounts

Complete description of euro area economic and financial developments: whole economy and by institutional sector (financial and non-financial corporations, private households and government, rest of the world)

Integrates monetary, financial and economic statistics

Consistent statistical basis for quarterly economic and monetary analysis, with integrated non-financial accounts and financial accounts

Enables analysis of interrelations between key macro-economic policy indicators (e.g. household saving rate, indebtedness and changes in wealth; entrepreneurial income of non-financial corporations; government debt)

Rubric


General economic statistics

• Other European statistics used by the ECB (Eurostat primary

responsibility):

– Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

– GDP

– Business indicators: industrial production, retail trade, etc.

– Employment, unemployment, labour costs, etc.

28

Rubric


Separation principle – ECB Decision of 17 Sep 2014

Organisational separation: the ECB shall maintain autonomous decision-making procedures for its supervisory and monetary policy functions

ECB to carry out its supervisory tasks without prejudice to and separately from its tasks relating to monetary policy and any other tasks

Professional secrecy: persons carrying out supervisory duties shall be required, even after their duties have ceased, not to disclose information covered by professional secrecy

Exchange of confidential information between policy functions: upon request on a need to know basis, subject to Executive Board approval, except where Union law provides otherwise

Analysis of the confidential information: to be conducted autonomously by the receiving policy function in accordance with its objective. Any subsequent decision to be taken solely on this basis

29

Documents

ESCB statistics for European policy making Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA countries and linkages with BPM6 and GFSM 2014 Istanbul,