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ESGControversies
Social
Envi
ronm
ent
G overnance
Climate controversies
Access to medicine
Gender controversies Executive pay
Social controversies
Biod
iver
sity
risk
Notes: Based on active cases.*As of May 2021
Notes: Based on active cases*As of May 2021
ESG Controversies: Six Trends To Watch
© 2
021
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For more information, visit esg.moodys.io
Number of controversies
per region
43Middle-East Africa
3,440North
America
2,915Europe
1,444EmergingMarkets
942Asia Pacific
Our coverage
10,000Companies worldwide
>8,700controversies are still active
22,000ESG controversies since 2015
Most exposed sectors to climate-related controversies
44%Reactive
41%Non Communicative
4%Proactive
11%Remediaive
Companies' engagement
Engagement
Sectors most exposed to ESGcontroversies
Gender-related controversies, such as non-discrimination lawsuits, are increasing steadily since 2018
Biodiversity-related controversy cases are rising, as climate crisis brings systemic risk into shaper focus
36%of cases related to access to medicines in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology sector arelinked to patent rights.
Access to medicine is one of the priority ESG issues for the pharmaceutical industry to address
Climate change, biodiversity loss, COVID-19 and protests against inequality are shifting the risk landscape for investors at an unprecedented rate.
Notes: This figure includes new cases as well as updates of active cases.*As of May 2021
Spike in social controversies during height of pandemic has put social issues firmly into the spotlight
Climate-related controversies are on the rise linked to shareholder activism and climate liability lawsuits
Since 2017, executive pay has comeunder greater scrutiny
30*
2021*
30
2020
23
2019
11
2018
11
2017
146*13767
948
00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Notes: Based on active cases.*As of May 2021
Notes: As of April 2021
Data as of May 2021
1
2015
6
2016
27
2017
49
2018
58
2019
125
2020
152*
2021*
30*
2021*
46
2020
25
2019
13
2018
Notes: Based on active cases
Notes: Based on HQ locationand active cases
Notes: Based on active cases
Notes: Based on active cases.*As of May 2021
Notes: Based on active cases.*As of May 2021
1,5951,416
1,621 1,5571,776
2,195
202020192018201720162015
1,407*
2021*
0 50 100 150 200
ChemicalsDevelopment Banks
AutomobilesElectric & Gas Utilities
Retail & Specialised BanksInsurance
Financial Services - GeneralMining & Metals
EnergyDiversified Banks
Num
ber o
f con
trov
ersi
es
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Pharmaceuticals& Biotechnology
ChemicalsEnergy
Technology-HardwareSpecialised Retail
Retail & Specialised BanksFinancial Services - General
FoodAutomobiles
TelecommunicationsSoftware & IT Services
Mining & MetalsDiversified Banks
Non-Financial Corporates: Rating Activity During COVID-19
Then & Now: the number of speculative grade corporate issuers pre-COVID-19 was significantly higher versus pre-2008 credit crisis
Recent downgrades represent a small percentage of the total non-financial corporates rated universe*
Majority of downgrades within speculative grade*
Late cycle reports highlighted corporate credit stress prior to COVID-19
Top 10 sectors most affected by COVID-19*
The spread of the coronavirus has placed significant stress on the global economy, but corporate downgrades reveal a thorough and measured approach to credit during turbulent times.
© 2
020
Moo
dy’s
Corp
orat
ion,
Moo
dy’s
Inve
stor
s Ser
vice
, Inc
., M
oody
’s An
alyt
ics,
Inc.
and
/or t
heir
licen
sors
and
affi
liate
s (co
llect
ivel
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MO
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). Al
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ved.
For more information, visit moodys.com/coronavirus
Q4 2007
Investment GradeSpeculative Grade
54% 46% 37%
SECTOR % DOWNGRADED WITHIN SECTOR
54
32
35
44
56
34
40
35
65
Increase in B3s heightens market's vulnerability to a new default cycle
Current weak credit quality could fuel Caa issuers’ defaults in next downturn
As low-rated spec-grade universe expands, more rated companies will likely default or be downgraded in the next downturn
Global CLOs – in a severe downturn scenario, credit quality declines significantly, impairing junior tranches
Loan and bond convergence: investors pave way for lower recoveries in next downturn
The top 10 ways loan investors are forfeiting protections
25MAY2019
09SEP
2019
29OCT2019
05SEP
2019
09SEP
2019
13NOV2019
FALLEN ANGELS IN DETAIL “Fallen Angels” are entities that move frominvestment grade to speculative grade
66%increase in 2019 speculative grade rated issuer count vs. 2007
Company Limited
Systems Limited
942Speculative Grade
121Investment Grade
227
91
176
583
178
5Aa
A
Baa
Ba
B
Caa
Ca1Aaa
Total downgrades
1,063~30% of total
corporate rated universe
Q4 2019
Mar 1 – Nov 30, 2020
Mar 1 – Nov 30, 2020
Total # of downgrades per category, Mar 1 – Nov 30, 2020
Proportion of publicly rated issuers by category
Proportion of publicly rated issuers by category
88% increase in B-rated issuers vs. 2007
VIEW REPORT
VIEW REPORT
VIEW REPORT
VIEW REPORT
VIEW REPORTVIEW REPORT
63%
Hotel, Gaming & Leisure
Apache Corporation
Carnival Corporation
Automotive
Services: Consumer
Energy: Oil & Gas
Aerospace & Defense
Advertising, Printing & Publishing
Transportation: Consumer
Retail
Consumer goods: Durable
31
*Includes all publicly-rated nonfinancial corporate entities; excludes subsidiaries and project finance-related corporations
About 1% of companies across all rating categories were under review for downgrade at the end of November, about the same at 1% at the end of October and 8% at the end of April. An additional 30% had negative outlooks.
SpeculativeGrade:
942
InvestmentGrade:
86
FallenAngels:
35
11%of total IG
rated population
38%of total SG
rated population
Media: Diversified & Production
APAC EMEAAMER
Gap, Inc. (The)Macy's, Inc.Michael Kors (USA), Inc.
ZF Friedrichshafen AG
Assets Management Co., Ltd.
Calculation reflects percentage of corporate families with at least one downgrade since March 1. Some corporate families include multiple issuers and some issuers have received multiple downgrades. Percentages reflect current number of issuers in each sector; ratings withdrawn since 1 March 2020 are excluded.
Exhibit does not include DIC Corporation (APAC) or Wirecard (EMEA) because these ratings have been withdrawn.
Explore our infographics hubDiscover the latest insights at mdy.link/infographics
Auto sector performance will shape global growthdue to high interconnectedness
For more information, visit moodys.com
Automakers & Part Suppliers
$337 BN
Auto sales unlikely to reach pre-crisis level before mid-2020s
Workforce % Manufacturing % Exports %
Auto sector has significant impact on global economyGlobal exports totaled $1.3 billion
Base case 20202019 actual Base case 2021
3.8%US
6.1%EU
8.3%Japan
17.7%US
14%EU
21.6%Japan
9.4%US
12.6%EU
22%Japan
12,825 K14,900 K
US
17,100 K11,410 K13,406 K
W. Europe
16,309 K3,292 K3,951 K
E. Europe
4,115 K2,470 K2,964 K
India
3,528 K4,360 K4,665 K
Japan
5,129 K23,200 K23,780 K
25,769 K
China
Fundamental auto trends, including stricter emissions regulation, autonomous driving and connectivity, lead to increasing number of touchpoints with other industries.
-8.2%-10%2.5%-11.8%
-30%20%
-4.4%-35%15%
0.9%-30%17.5%
-2.7%-20%20%
-1.4%-15%7%
-1.2%-25%16.2%
Metals & Mining
$209 BNRated debt outstanding
Rising number of batteries in AFVs will
drive demand for cobalt, nickel and copper
Media & Telco
$1,300 BNRated debt outstanding
Connectivity will drive demand for bandwidth,
offsetting 5G investmentTechnology
$977 BNRated debt outstanding
Rising use of digital systems will spur demand
for chips and software
Oil & Gas
$1,434 BNRated debt outstanding
AFV growth will slow demand for diesel
and gasoline
Utility &Infrastructure
$1,587 BNRated debt outstanding
AFV growth will drive demand for power
and capex
Number and growth rates represent Moody’s forecast for Light Vehicle Registrations.
2,018 K2,321 K
Argentina/Brazil
3,105 K
© 2
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Moo
dy’s
Corp
orat
ion,
Moo
dy’s
Inve
stor
s Ser
vice
, Inc
., M
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’s An
alyt
ics,
Inc.
and
/or t
heir
licen
sors
and
affi
liate
s (co
llect
ivel
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MO
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). Al
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Younger riders return to cities for reduced rent, social / work opportunities
Ridership will grow in 2021...
...but large costs will contribute to slow return to financial stability
US mass transit: ridership faces a long, slow recoveryThe coronavirus pandemic will continue to hurt mass transit systems’ financial performance across the United States. Lockdowns, unemployment, remote working, office closures and slowdowns in the retail and leisure industries have led to large drops in ridership, which will not approach pre-pandemic levels for many years.
To learn more, read the report
Ridership rebounding slower than jobs; multiple factors impeding return to normal service
Key revenues
2019
2020*
2021*
2022*
2023*
Year-over-year % change
0%
4.7 billion
7.4 billion
6.0 billion
9.9 billion
8.9 billion
30%
18%
32%17%
24%
31%
7%
9%
15%
10%
34% 53%
30%
37%
30%
44%44%
60%
43%52%
Top ten issuers by ridership numbers
R
R
R
RR
RR
R
R
RJ
NY MTAChicago Transit AuthorityLos Angeles County MTAWMATAMBTASEPTASan Francisco MTABARTMARTADenver RTD
JJ
JJ
J
J
J
J
J
Aggregate US transit ridership
Salaries & benefits
Fixed costs (pensions, etc)
System operations
Facility maintenance
Capital projects
Impeding factors
Ridership % recovered
Jobs % recovered
R
J
Recovery is calculated as the number of jobs/riders added since the trough in April through September as a percentage of the number of jobs/riders lost from January to April.
* = Projected
Fares 30%
Taxes21%
Federal aid16%
Down 5.7% $25B one-time2020 stimulus Down 53%
in 2020
20%
23%
28%
-52%
Traffic congestion will push people back onto mass transit
Suburban riders moving further out and become 2x per
week rail riders
Subway riders moving to suburbs and
becoming rail riders
Increased car usage in certain cities
Transit riders being locked in due to low income and lack of alternate transport
CITY
COUNTRY
SUBURBS
Long-term migration and usage trends that could
reshape mass transit
Public health concerns
Slow job recovery in key sectors
Temporary and permanent remote work
Remote schools and universities
Access to alternate transportation
Potential transit capacity limits
Potential service cuts
This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
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