Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 1
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
ESRI Collaboration Projecton Environmental Issues
Final Report @Tokyo3&4 March 2005
By Kyoto University
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 2
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Win-win Strategies forChina and Japan in
Climate Change policyKazuhiro UETA: Kyoto Univ.Yoshihisa INADA: Konan Univ.Kiyoshi FUJIKAWA: Konan Univ.Akihisa MORI: Kyoto Univ.Sungin NA: Hiroshima-Shudo Univ.Tadashi HAYASHI: Takasaki City Univ. of Econ.Mitsuru Simoda: Tezukayama Univ.
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 3
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
ContentsCh1 IntroductionCh2 Site Location of CDM Projects: I-O AnalysisCh3 A Multi-Sectoral Econometric Model of ChinaCh4 An Option of Financing CDM Projects in ChinaCh5 Concluding Remarks
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 4
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Our Concerns on Ch-Jp CDM
Win-win strategy for Ch & Jp
China: low priority in CDM high priority in SD
Japan:CDM is a crucial option for KP target
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 5
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Basic Idea and ViewpointsEnvironment vs. Economy(FY2002-2004)Global vs. local (in environmental problems) (FY2002-2004)China, Japan and global economic impacts (FY2002-2003)Impacts on regional economy in China(FY2004)Coordination of CDM with domestic policy and financing tools (FY2002-2004)
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 6
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
1.Urban and rural development2.Economic and social development3.Mitigation of regional imbalance4.Local pollution control 5.Domestic economic development
How to Encourage Ch-Jp CDM
CDM should contribute to SD in ChinaSD Strategy in China
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 7
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Ch2 Cite Location of CDM
Key conceptsAcquisition rate of value-added (ARVA)Spillover ratio of innovation (SRI)Evaluation criteriaEffects of construction phaseEffects of operating phaseNet environmental effects of CDM Per capita output by regions
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 8
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Evaluation in terms of ARVA 1
North municipalities,Central coast, South coast Less than 70%
Northeast, North coast , Northwest70% and over
Central region, Southwest80% and over
RegionsOwn share
Case1; Total industry
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 9
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Evaluation in terms of ARVA 2
78.2%Southwest60.8%Central coast
69.9%Northwest75.9%North coast
77.5%Central region56.5%North
municipalities
53.4%South coast73.2%Northeast
Own ShareRegionOwn ShareRegion
Case2; Manufacturing sector
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 10
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Evaluation in terms of SRI 1
Northeast, North coast, Central coast, Central region
Less than 0.6
South coast, Southwestless than 0.7
North municipalities,0.6 and over
Northwest 0.7 and over
Region
Spillover rate in Manufacturing
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 11
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Evaluation in terms of SRI 2
0.8559Elect., gas, & waterSouth Coast870.9184Elect., gas, & waterCentral region400.9411Elect., gas, & waterSouth west340.9461Elect., gas, & waterCentral Coast300.9492Elect., gas, & waterNorth East270.9537Elect., gas, & waterNorth West260.9600Elect., gas, & waterMunicipalities210.9645Elect., gas, & waterNorth Coast18
Spillover rate of Elect., gas, & water in 17*8
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 12
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Per-capita Output:2000Per capita
output RMB Output
Billion RMBPopulation
Million
15,83219,984.41,262.3Total8,4412,024.4239.8South west9,7201,122.5115.5North west9,9523,497.8351.5Central
23,0672,975.7129.0South coast33,5444,625.4137.9Central coast18,0092,849.5158.2North coast39,528941.923.8Municipalities18,2761,947.3106.6Northeast
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 13
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Simulation Analysis
Coal-fired power plants of 3,000MW Investment : 3,735 million RMB (2000) Crediting period : 2001-2010Improve of efficiency : 25%
Simulation analysis by using “Multi-regional Input-Output Table 2000”
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 14
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Effects of Construction Phase
27.10.46 9,755.1 Southwest25.0 0.62 9,475.7 Northwest33.4 0.94 10,418.0 Central
9.8 0.30 6,297.7 South coast16.5 0.47 9,368.2 Central coast18.9 0.50 10,264.8North coast13.2 0.47 6,364.8 Municipalities14.6 0.6310,140.1 Northeast
SO2thousand ton
CO2Mt-c
OutputMillion RMB
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 15
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Effects of Operating Phase
-122.2 -1.61 -15,956.3 Southwest-59.3 -1.35 -12,433.0 Northwest
-181.1 -4.88 -32,600.2 Central -177.5 -4.83 -48,587.6 South coast-158.1 -3.92 -42,953.1 Central coast
-89.0 -2.13 -24,728.1 North coast-96.3 -3.03 -20,344.2 Municipalities-69.3 -2.72 -22,969.5 Northeast
SO2thousand ton
CO2Mt-c
OutputMillion RMB
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 16
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Net Effects
-95.1 -1.14 -6,201.2 Southwest-34.3 -0.73 -2,957.3 Northwest
-147.7 -3.94 -22,182.2 Central -167.7 -4.53 -42,289.9 South coast-141.6 -3.46 -33,584.9 Central coast
-70.0 -1.63 -14,463.3 North coast-83.2 -2.56 -13,979.4 Municipalities-54.7 -2.09 -12,829.4 Northeast
SO2thousand ton
CO2Mt-c
OutputMillion RMB
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 17
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Effects of CO2 Reduction
-1.19 -0.42 Southwest-0.98 -0.37 Northwest-3.94 -0.94 Central -3.75 -1.08 South coast-3.13 -0.79 Central coast-1.80 -0.33 North coast-2.24 -0.79 Municipalities-2.00 -0.72 Northeast
IndirectDirect
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 18
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Summary Table
B>D>E>A>C>F>G>HOutput of per capita E>F>D>H>B>C>A>GDecrease amount of SO2E>F>D>B>A>C>H>GDecrease amount of CO2
Net effects of CDMF>E>D>H>C>B>A>GDecrease amount of SO2F>E>D>C>B>A>H>GDecrease amount of CO2
Total effects of operating of CDMF>H>G>C>D>A>B>EIncrease amount of SO2F>A>G>C>D>B>H>EIncrease amount of CO2F>C>A>H>G>D>B>EIncrease amount of output
Total effects of construction of CDMG>E>B>H>F>C>A>DSpillover in manufacturing sectorH>F>C>A>G>D>B>EValue added division of labor
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 19
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Rank of the site location in CDM
256Southwest734Northwest350Central 165South coast446Central coast639North coast545Municipalities833Northeast
RankTotal point
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 20
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Ch3 A Multi-sectoral Econometric Model of China
Industrial Classification:15 industriesEnergy Sector includes (1)coal, (2)oil, (3)natural gas, and (4)electricityDynamic model using time-series dataSimulation results should be compared with those in the previous chapter
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 21
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Baseline Forecast 2003-2020
Real GDP Growth2003-10: 6.87% 2010-20: 5.23%
Energy Growth2003-10: 5.10% 2010-20: 3.95%
Elasticity2003-10: 0.74 2010-20: 0.76
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 22
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Comparison of Primary Energy Supply
178292
PrimaryEnergyMillionTon-Oil
Equivalent
TotalCoalOilN.GasOthers
Electricity100 million Kwh
GDP 100 million Yuan
Year201015171047289
51130
AverageGrowth(%)
03-10 10-20
Our ModelYear2010
AverageGrowth(%)
02-10 10-20
IEA Outlook 2004
25749
5.104.686.255.715.80
5.61
6.87
3.953.544.974.864.41
4.47
5.23 -
162290437559
286
26530
3.393.015.366.371.80
5.92
6.40
2.482.162.986.131.83
4.24
4.90
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 23
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Scenario Analysis
Nationwide baseInvestment construction phase
9,000 MW coal thermal power plant Total investment: 11.203 billion RMB
Efficiency improvement by CDM projectPlant base : 25% pointsNation base: 0.21% points
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 24
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Outline of the ModelFinal
DemandIOStructure
Production
Energy SectorConsumption
Environmental Burden
Value Added
Labor Demand
IOStructure
Production
Cost
Domestic Price
Productivity
Import
World Commodity Price
IOStructure
GDP
CO2, SO2
CDM
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 25
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Industry Production Household Consumption
Electricity Demand,·Industry ·Household
Power Generation
Hydraulic PG
Thermal PGEnergy Conversion Demand
Demand for Fossil Fuels·Industry·Household
Production ofFossil Fuels
Macro-IO Sector
Demand for Fossil Fuels·Industry·Household
Production ofFossil Fuels
CO2
SO2
Emission Efficiency in CoalPower Generation
Outline of the Energy Sector
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 26
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Net Impact of CDM #1
0.000.000.000.000.000.000.12
Dev. Rate(%)
0.0-2.0-2.0-3.0-3.01.0
124.0Deviation
GDP(100 Million Yuan)
2007
20132008
2006200520042003
Table 3-19 Effect of CDM projects on GDP
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 27
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Net Impact of CDM #2
-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.07-0.070.01
Dev. Rate(%)
-1078-135
-99-93-87-80
8Deviation
CO2 Emission (10000 Ton-C)
-0.10-3.42007
-37.1Sum-0.11-4.72013
-0.10-3.22006-0.09-3.02005-0.09-2.720040.010.32003
Dev. Rate(%)DeviationSO2 Emission (10000 Ton)
Table 3-19 Effect of CDM projects on CO2 and SO2 Emission
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 28
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Ch4 Issues on Financing CDM
Risk InsuranceKyoto Protocol riskGeneral project riskCountry / regulatory risk
Secure Financial PackageSelf-financeCorporate debt financeProject finance
Kyoto Protocol came into effect
PCF, CERUPT+JGRF
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 29
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Domestic Financing~1998: Ministry of Electric Power
Government budget / subsidized loanState-owned banksSelf-finance, including “three simultaneous”
1998~ Corporatization and Asset SplitSelf-financeState-owned banks (Bad loans & low capacity) No bond finance
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 30
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
FDI and Foreign Financing (1)
Features: Management of high regulatory risks
Joint venture with local power bureauFavorable contract terms but little legal recourseIn case of contract breachRate of return regulation
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 31
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
FDI and Foreign Financing (2)
Foreign lenders perceive excessive credit risks among Chinese counterparts
Foreign investors can finance projects eitherby private loans at less favorable terms, orby export credits of investors’ country government
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 32
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
ODA Involvement (1)
IssueAdditionalityODA diversion
DAC Recommendation:CER be deducted from ODA
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 33
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
ODA Involvement (2)
Direct v.s. Indirect involvementIndirect involvement: Canada, IDA: through environmental/ electrification fundsDirect involvement: Danida, ADB: as a catalyst of financing CDM projectsco-benefit of reducing poverty and local pollution
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 34
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
ODA for China’s CDM Fund?
Experience of ODA for China’s Env FundWorld Bank supported the environmental fund to overcome credit-market constraints for local pollution controlLoan disbursement did not increaseNon-performing loans increased
Unsustainable fundmanagement
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 35
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Direct ODA InvolvementJP Government wants to buy CERs by ODA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5
Value bedeductedNet of ODADisbursement
US$ per ton ofCO2 equivalent
US$
Amount of ODA that is spentfor CER purchase increase
Far away from achievingMDGs and UN-0.7% target
(eg.)Zafarana wind power in Egypt
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 36
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
A Possible Option?
ODA involvement in projects that promote poverty alleviation and local environmental improvement
JGRF purchases CERs generated from the above ODA-financed projects
(eg.) rural electrification/fuel supply by methane recovery
Promotion of SD in China
financial additionality
Reduction of deforestationPoverty alleviationGHG mitigation
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 37
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Conclusion of Ch 2
Net effects of CDM: Regional I-O analysis
Various criteria to promote SD in China
South coast, Southwest, and Central region are promising candidate for encouraging CDM.
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 38
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Conclusion of Ch 3
Multi sectoral national modelThe effectiveness of CDM is also confirmed.9,000 MW coal power-plant as CDM⇒ 10.78 million ton-c CO2 reduction
371 thousand ton SO2 reductionConsistent result with Ch.2.
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 39
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Conclusion of Ch 4ODA involvement as a catalyst of CDM
in the transitional period with serious in the transitional period with serious institutional constraintsinstitutional constraints
JGRF purchase of CERs of ODA-financed poverty alleviation projects
one high potential option, for it can promote SD in China and ensure financial additionality
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 40
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
FS of CDM
212497115781275CER $10
1812
789
747
NMunic
308415251191Co-benefit
1062486637CER $5
747747747Investment
CCNCNE
66842523672731CER $10
3217
1183
747Central
20727473653Co-benefit
3342121366CER $5
747747747InvestmentSWNWSC
Project Size: 600MW(2001-2010, Million RMB)
2005/5/12 ESRI Collaboration Project 41
Kyoto University Global Environment Forum
Remaining Issues
Japan’s environmental and economic benefits through China-Japan CDM should be analyzed.Development of private financing for CDM projects should be examined.