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1 1 1 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
“Este documento foi classificado como confidencial pelo Depec, e o acesso está
autorizado, exclusivamente, aos participantes do Foro Latibex.”
2 2 2 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 2
THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:
POST-ELECTION CHALLENGES
IS IT POSSIBLE TO AVERT THE
CURRENT ROUTE TO SOVEREIGN
DOWNGRADING?
Fabiana D’Atri
November 20th, 2014
3 3 3 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
JUST TWO
ALTERNATIVES:
DOWNGRADING/
MUDDLING THROUGH
OR
POSITIVE OUTLOOK
PRESENTATION LATIBEX
Downgrading Positive
Outlook
4 4 4 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 4
BRAZIL NEEDS TO RUN WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS TO FACE THE NEXT WORLD MONETARY NORMALIZATION PROCESS.
AT THE SAME TIME, CHINESE
ECONOMY IS SLOWDING DOWN
5 5 5 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
US AND GERMANY: 10 YEAR INTEREST RATE 2011-2014
%
2.36
1.87
2.06
1.63
2.74
2.99
2.50
3.03
2.58
2.46
2.64 2.61
2.302.33
1.171.30
1.17
1.52
2.04
1.69
1.96
1.69
1.43
1.05
0.820.70
1.20
1.70
2.20
2.70
3.20
10/1
1/11
10/1
2/11
10/0
1/12
10/0
2/12
10/0
3/12
10/0
4/12
10/0
5/12
10/0
6/12
10/0
7/12
10/0
8/12
10/0
9/12
10/1
0/12
10/1
1/12
10/1
2/12
10/0
1/13
10/0
2/13
10/0
3/13
10/0
4/13
10/0
5/13
10/0
6/13
10/0
7/13
10/0
8/13
10/0
9/13
10/1
0/13
10/1
1/13
10/1
2/13
10/0
1/14
10/0
2/14
10/0
3/14
10/0
4/14
10/0
5/14
10/0
6/14
10/0
7/14
10/0
8/14
10/0
9/14
10/1
0/14
10/1
1/14
Treasury 10 years
Juros 10 years - Germany
TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte: Bloomberg
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
6 6 6 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 6
CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1997 - 2016
SOURCE: CEIC
FORECAST: BRADESCO
9.3
7.8 7.6
8.4 8.3
9.1
10.1
11.3
12.7
14.2
9.69.2
10.4
9.3
7.7 7.77.3
6.56.2
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual). Fonte: Bloomberg
Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco
7 7 7 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 7
TOTAL CAPITAL FLOW TO EMERGING COUNTRIES IN 12 MONTHS – 2010 - 2014 (US$ BN)
350,68
369,05
210,69
267,67
220,08
355,12361,12
132,56
252,97
202,81
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
dez/
10
jan/
11
fev/
11
mar
/11
abr/1
1
mai
/11
jun/
11
jul/1
1
ago/
11
set/1
1
out/1
1
nov/
11
dez/
11
jan/
12
fev/
12
mar
/12
abr/1
2
mai
/12
jun/
12
jul/1
2
ago/
12
set/1
2
out/1
2
nov/
12
dez/
12
jan/
13
fev/
13
mar
/13
abr/1
3
mai
/13
jun/
13
jul/1
3
ago/
13
set/1
3
out/1
3
nov/
13
dez/
13
jan/
14
fev/
14
mar
/14
abr/1
4
mai
/14
jun/
14
jul/1
4
ago/
14
set/1
4
out/1
4
SOURCE: IIF, BRADESCO
8 8 8 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
45%
17%
13%
10%
05% 04%
-05%
00%
05%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
Argentina Chile Brazil Colombia Peru Mexico
Variação cambial para países selecionados da América Latina
Variation between Oct/14 - Oct/13
Fonte: BloombergPreparação: Bradesco
8
CURRENCY VARIATION FOR SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
9 9 9 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY
10 10 10 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
AFTER ELECTIONS,
EVERYTHING TENDS TO
RETURN TO NORMAL.
IS IT GOOD?
11 11 11 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY IN 2015 TENDS
TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF 2003:
ADJUSTMENTS AND REFORMS MAY
HAPPEN IN THE FIRST SEMESTER
AND CONFIDENCE RECOVERY TO BE
SEEN IN THE SECOND HALF
12 12 12 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
4.3%
1.3%
2.6%
1.2%
5.7%
3.2%
3.9%
6.1%
5.2%
-0.3%
7.5%
2.7%
1.0%
2.5%
0.5%
1.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
VARIAÇÃO REAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO. FONTE: IBGE. ELABORAÇÃO E PROJEÇÕES: BRADESCO
13 13 13 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: INVESTMENT– ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
9.1%
3.6%
9.8%
13.9% 13.6%
-6.7%
21.3%
4.7%
-4.0%
5.2%
-7.5%
2.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%2
00
4
2005
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
PIB: FBKF
14 14 14 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE –
2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
3.8%
4.5%
5.2%
6.1%
5.7%
4.4%
6.9%
4.1%
3.2%
2.6%
1.0% 1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%20
04
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PIB: CONSUMO
15 15 15 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
-1.3%
1.5%
4.0%
3.2%3.4%
3.2%
3.8%
2.7%
4.1%
1.8%2.0%
1.5%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%20
04
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PROJEÇÕES RENDA REAL
BRAZILIAN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME – REAL ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE –
2004-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
16 16 16 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
11,5%
9,9%10,0%
9,3%
7,9%8,1%
6,7%
6,0%
5,5% 5,4%
4,9%
5,7%
4,5%
5,5%
6,5%
7,5%
8,5%
9,5%
10,5%
11,5%
12,5%20
04
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
DESEMPREGO
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE) – 2004-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
17 17 17 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: AGRICULTURE – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2.3%
0.3%
4.8% 4.8%
6.3%
-3.1%
6.3%
3.9%
-2.1%
7.3%
2.0%
3.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
PIB: AGRO
18 18 18 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: SERVICE – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
5.0%
3.7%
4.2%
6.1%
4.9%
2.1%
5.5%
2.7%
1.9%2.2%
1.0% 1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
PIB: SERVIÇOS
19 19 19 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN GDP: INDUSTRY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE – 2000-2015
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
7.9%
2.1% 2.2%
5.3%
4.1%
-5.6%
10.4%
1.6%
-0.8%
1.7%
-1.0%
1.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
PIB: INDUSTRIA
20 20 20 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 20
THE IPCA WILL FINISH 2014 AT THE UPPER-
LIMIT OF THE TARGET RANGE, AT 6.5%, BUT HEAD TO 6.3% IN 2015.
21 21 21 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
5.69%
3.14%
4.46%
5.90%
4.31%
5.91%
6.50%
5.84% 5.91%
6.50%6.30%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
IPCA ANUAL 2005 – 2014* (NOVA AGREGAÇÃO E NOVA POF)
22 22 22 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 22
INTEREST RATES SCENARIO
23 23 23 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
11.75%
13.00%
13.75%
12.75%
11.25%
10.25%
8.75%8.75%
9.50%
10.25%
10.75%
11.25%
12.00%12.50%
11.00%
10.50%
9.75%
9.00%
8.50%
8.00%
7.25%
8.00%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%10.75%
11.00%11.25%
11.50%11.75%
12.00% 12.00%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
mar
-08
jun-
08
set-
08
dez-
08
mar
-09
jun-
09
set-
09
dez-
09
mar
-10
jun-
10
set-
10
dez-
10
mar
-11
jun-
11
set-
11
dez-
11
mar
-12
jun-
12
set-
12
dez-
12
mar
-13
jun-
13
set-
13
dez-
13
mar
-14
jun-
14
set-
14
dez-
14
mar
-15
jun-
15
set-
15
dez-
15
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - SelicCenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2015
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
24 24 24 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
PRIMARY SURPLUS AS % OF GDP 2001-2015
SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
2,9%
3,2%3,4%
3,2% 3,3%
3,7% 3,8%
3,2%3,3%
3,4%
2,0%
2,7%
3,1%
2,4%
1,9%
0,3%
1,3%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SUPERÁVIT PRIMÁRIO EM % DO PIB - SELL SIDE
25 25 25 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº› 25
BRAZILIAN EXCHANGE RATE:
INFLUENCED BY EXTERNAL EVENTS
26 26 26 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
100,79
99,45
103,25 103,24
100,23
102,20
103,61
102,05
102,70
101,73
103,17
106,48
105,74
105,99
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
01/0
3/20
13
15/0
3/20
13
29/0
3/20
13
12/0
4/20
13
26/0
4/20
13
10/0
5/20
13
24/0
5/20
13
07/0
6/20
13
21/0
6/20
13
05/0
7/20
13
19/0
7/20
13
02/0
8/20
13
16/0
8/20
13
30/0
8/20
13
13/0
9/20
13
27/0
9/20
13
11/1
0/20
13
25/1
0/20
13
08/1
1/20
13
22/1
1/20
13
06/1
2/20
13
20/1
2/20
13
03/0
1/20
14
17/0
1/20
14
31/0
1/20
14
14/0
2/20
14
28/0
2/20
14
14/0
3/20
14
28/0
3/20
14
11/0
4/20
14
25/0
4/20
14
09/0
5/20
14
23/0
5/20
14
06/0
6/20
14
20/0
6/20
14
04/0
7/20
14
18/0
7/20
14
01/0
8/20
14
15/0
8/20
14
29/0
8/20
14
12/0
9/20
14
26/0
9/20
14
10/1
0/20
14
24/1
0/20
14
DÓLAR CONTRA CESTA DE MOEDAS (USD BROAD INDEX)FONTE: FEDERAL RESERVEELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO
INCLUI EURO E MAIS 25 MOEDAS.MOVIMENTOS PARA CIMA INDICAM
APRECIAÇÃO DO DÓLAR
APRECIAÇÃO DE 4,2% DESDE 30/JUNHO/14
JAN1997=100USD BROAD INDEX - JAN1997=100
SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE, BRADESCO
US trade weighted broad dollar
index is a basket of 25 currencies
(euro + 24 currencies). Index grow
suggest strong US dollar.
Since 06/30/2014 dollar
broad index increase
4.2%.
27 27 27 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
TERMS OF TRADE INDEX 1999 - 2014
SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO
1996 = 100
88.2
98.1
90.0
96.0
86.9
95.1
88.0
96.0
101.8
97.7
102.7
96.8
108.4
93.6
110.0
125.6
129.1
117.2
116.4
117.5
111.7112.2 111.1
103.9
98.80
112.78
106.81
82
87
92
97
102
107
112
117
122
127
132
jun/
99se
t/99
dez/
99m
ar/0
0ju
n/00
set/0
0de
z/00
mar
/01
jun/
01se
t/01
dez/
01m
ar/0
2ju
n/02
set/0
2de
z/02
mar
/03
jun/
03se
t/03
dez/
03m
ar/0
4ju
n/04
set/0
4de
z/04
mar
/05
jun/
05se
t/05
dez/
05m
ar/0
6ju
n/06
set/0
6de
z/06
mar
/07
jun/
07se
t/07
dez/
07m
ar/0
8ju
n/08
set/0
8de
z/08
mar
/09
jun/
09se
t/09
dez/
09m
ar/1
0ju
n/10
set/1
0de
z/10
mar
/11
jun/
11se
t/11
dez/
11m
ar/1
2ju
n/12
set/1
2de
z/12
mar
/13
jun/
13se
t/13
dez/
13m
ar/1
4ju
n/14
set/1
4de
z/14
mar
/15
jun/
15se
t/15
dez/
15
Termos de Troca
Média Móvel 12 Meses
Índice de termos de troca (1996 = 100). Preço das exportações / preço das importações. Fonte: Funcex. 1999-2007Índice de termos de troca (1996 = 100). Preço das exportações / preço das importações. Fonte: Funcex. 1999-2007
28 28 28 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT (USD MILLION) - 1994-2015
-1.811
-18.384
-23.502
-30.452-33.416
-25.335-24.225-23.215
-7.637
4.177
11.67913.985 13.643
1.551
-28.192-24.302
-47.273
-52.480-54.283
-81.379-84.509
-81.352
-98.000
-89.000
-80.000
-71.000
-62.000
-53.000
-44.000
-35.000
-26.000
-17.000
-8.000
1.000
10.000
19.00019
94
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2,4%PIB
-3,6%PIB
-3,8%PIB
-3,7%PIB
SOURCE: BC, BRADESCO
29 29 29 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (USD MILLION) 1998-2018
28.856 28.578
32.779
22.457
16.590
10.144
18.14615.066
18.822
34.585
45.058
25.949
48.506
66.660 65.272 63.996
60.000
64.200
69.00071.070
73.202
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*
2015
*
2016
*
2017
*
2018
*
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
30 30 30 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
BRAZILIAN INTEREST RATE BRL/USD (END OF PERIOD) 2000-2018
1.96
2.32
3.53
2.89
2.65
2.34
2.14
1.77
2.34
1.741.67
1.88
2.04
2.352.45
2.55
0.8
1.4
2
2.6
3.2
3.8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
31 31 31 ‹nº› ‹nº› ‹nº›
Fabiana D’Atri
Senior Economist
WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR
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