Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Estimating Economic Impacts of Energy Deployment
National Association of State Energy Officials Regional Meeting
David Keyser
June 5, 2013
2
DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT These information (“Data”) are provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (“NREL”), which is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC (“Alliance”) for the U.S. Department of Energy (the “DOE”). It is recognized that disclosure of these Data is provided under the following conditions and warnings: (1) these Data have been prepared for reference purposes only; (2) these Data consist of forecasts, estimates or assumptions made on a best‐efforts basis, based upon present expectations; and (3) these Data were prepared with existing information and are subject to change without notice. The names DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE shall not be used in any representation, advertising, publicity or other manner whatsoever to endorse or promote any entity that adopts or uses these Data. DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE shall not provide any support, consulting, training or assistance of any kind with regard to the use of these Data or any updates, revisions or new versions of these Data. YOU AGREE TO INDEMNIFY DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE, AND ITS AFFILIATES, OFFICERS, AGENTS, AND EMPLOYEES AGAINST ANY CLAIM OR DEMAND, INCLUDING REASONABLE ATTORNEYS' FEES, RELATED TO YOUR USE, RELIANCE, OR ADOPTION OF THESE DATA FOR ANY PURPOSE WHATSOEVER. THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED BY DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CLAIMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DATA OR PROFITS, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM AN ACTION IN CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS CLAIM THAT ARISES OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OR PERFORMANCE OF THESE DATA.
Disclaimer
3
Why Do Impact Modeling?
• Evaluate potential scenarios – current or future
• Inform residents, stakeholders, decision makers
• Assist businesseso Identify potential customerso Evaluate economic
development efforts• Assist government
o Representing public interesto Planning and evaluatingo Community development.
Photo Credit: NREL PIX #14936
4
Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI)
• Freely available input‐output tool to estimate employment and economic impacts that result from an investment in new power generation or fuel production
• JEDI default inputs are from developers and industry experts, based on existing projects
• User input can be minimal with defaults or be very detailed for more precise results. Photo Credit: David Hicks, NREL PIX #18397
5
JEDI Technologies• Current JEDI models
o Solar photovoltaic (including web and scenario versions)
o Concentrating solar power (trough)o Utility scale land based windo Offshore windo Natural gas (combined cycle)o Coal (pulverized coal)o Marine and hydrokinetico Dry mill corn ethanolo Lignocellulosic ethanolo Biopowero Geothermal
• JEDI models under developmento Small windo Hydropower (conventional)o Transmission
Photo Credit: HC Sorensen, Middelgrunden Wind Turbine Cooperative / NREL PIX #17855
6
JEDI Model Approach
• Build project development and operation scenarioso Scenarios contain project expenditures and other characteristics
o Can be based on default data or a model user can supply detailed project information
• Feed project scenario in to an input‐output model to estimate impactso Currently use the IMPLAN model
7
JEDI Data and Model Development
• Prefer detailed expenditure data from real projects
• Some technologies (i.e., marine hydrokinetic, offshore wind) must rely on theoretical projects – expenditure data based on costs to source project inputs
• Data collection could be internal, by consultants, other national labs
• Peer review• Periodic updates
8
JEDI Results
• Jobs (FTEs)o Number of people working the equivalent of 40 hr. weeks, 52 weeks/yr.
• Earningso Income from worko Includes wages, salaries, employer provided supplements (retirement, health)
• Gross outputo Measure of total economic activity o Revenue plus expenditures on inputs o Not the same as GDP
9
Project Development & Onsite Labor Impacts• Sample job types
o Truck drivingo Crane operation, hoisting, riggingo Earth movingo Pouring cemento Management, supporto Siting.
Photo from
Cross Island
Farms, NRE
L/PIX 19923
Photo from
Steph
anie Lively, Boise State University, N
REL/PIX 16147
Photo from
Northern Po
wer Systems, NRE
L/PIX 13853
Photo by David Parsons, N
REL/PIX 05572
Photo from
istock 947687
10
Local Revenues, Turbine, Module, & Supply Chain Impacts
• Steel mill jobs, parts, services• Equipment manufacturing & sales• Blade & tower manufacturers• Property taxes, financing, banking, accounting.
NRE
L/PIX 11074
Photo from
Clarence Co
uncil, NRE
L/PIX 09091
Photo from
iStock/5676592
Photo from
iStock/4088468
Photo from
iStock/8384987
Photo from
iStock/7792082
Photo from
iStock/8433850
11
Induced Impacts
Money spent in the local area on goods and services from increased revenue: sandwich shops, child care, grocery stores, clothing, other retail, public transit, new cars, restaurants, medical services
Photo from
iStock/8913075
Photo from
iStock/8007815
Photo from
iStock/3275965
Photo from
iStock/4363756
Photo from
iStock/9774681
Photo from
iStock/8783332
12
Interpreting Results and Model Limitations
• JEDI results are gross, not net• JEDI does not factor in far‐reaching impacts from development such as changes in utility rates, greenhouse gas emissions, property values or public health
• Input‐output models cannot estimate impacts from supply‐side changes such as technological improvements, price changes, or changes in taxes/subsidies
• JEDI doesn’t evaluate a project’s feasibility or profitability
• NREL is not responsible for how the model is used, applied or results interpreted
Thank You