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ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems: review questions 2, 3, 10, due Tuesday March 14 Problems from chapter 8 due today Case Study 3 due next Tuesday March 14 Term papers due Thursday March 16 Discussion time: Complete Case Study 3, handout for C.S. 4 http://realclimate.org site contributed to by climate scientists

ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

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Page 1: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems

March 7, 2006

Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC

Chapter 16 problems: review questions 2, 3, 10, due Tuesday March 14

Problems from chapter 8 due today

Case Study 3 due next Tuesday March 14

Term papers due Thursday March 16

Discussion time: Complete Case Study 3, handout for C.S. 4http://realclimate.org site contributed to by climate scientists

http://www.marshall.org/ somewhat objective site, but funded by Exxon, some good links

Page 2: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Global Change

• “Change” a synonym for anthropogenic climate change, as opposed to “variability” which is a synonym for natural climate variation.

• Evidence of global change– CO2 rise - documentation and evidence that it is

anthropogenic – Temperature change– Sea level change– Permanent ice cover changes in Arctic and Antarctic

• Climate modeling using expected CO2 rise, predictions for climate change

• Temperature rise - documentation and evidence that it is anthropogenic

Page 3: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural climate “modes” (patterns)

• What are the dominant natural modes of climate that impact us on decadal to millenial scales (short of glaciations)?

• El Nino Southern Oscillation• Pacific Decadal Oscillation• North Atlantic Oscillation (or Northern Annular Mode)• Southern Annular Mode• Atlantic thermohaline circulation changes

• Go to separate powerpoint for these patterns

Page 4: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

CO2, CH4 and T changes through history

Age (kyr B.P.)PASTPresent

Page 5: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Various greenhouse gas histories

Page 6: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

CO2 rise

Page 7: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

“Keeling” CO2 curve at Mauna Loa

Page 8: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Fossil fuel reserves

Fossil Fuels

Page 9: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Fossil fuel reserves

• Reservoir Size Gton Burning rate Gton/yr

• Coal 3500 2.4

• Oil 670 2.7

• Natural gas 500 1.3

• Total 4570 6.4

Deforestation also produces about 1.5 per year

Thus 670 years reserve if all fossil fuels in all forms were used up.

Page 10: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Who is doing the burning?Where does the total of 7.5 to 8 Gton/yr of carbon go?

Fossil fuel consumption (Gtons C/yr)(1 Gton = 1 billion metric tons

1 metric ton = 1000 kg)

• N.America 1.832• Central and S. America 0.269• Western Europe 1.000• Eastern Europe 0.844• Middle East 0.288• Africa 0.240• Far East 1.970

• Total 6.443 GtC/yr

Page 11: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems

March 9, 2006

Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC

Chapter 16 problems: review questions 2, 3, 10, due Tuesday March 14

Case Study 3 due next Tuesday March 14

Term papers and presentation due Thursday March 16

Discussion time: Term paper presentations and handout for C.S. 4http://realclimate.org site contributed to by climate scientists

http://www.marshall.org/ somewhat objective site, but funded by Exxon, some good links

Page 12: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Is Earth’s climate changing? The problem of attribution

Attribution and consistency

Detecting that some climate change has taken place does not immediately imply that we know the cause of the detected change. The practical approach to attribution that has been taken by climatologists includes a demand for consistency between the signal amplitudes projected by climate models and estimated from observations (Hasselmann, 1997). (IPCC, 2001)

Detection and attribution of climate change is a statistical “signal-in-noise” problem, it requires an accurate knowledge of the properties of the “noise”. Ideally, internal climate variability would be estimated from instrumental observations, but a number of problems make this difficult.

Page 13: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Lots of great websites

Particularly:

U.S. EPA on global warming http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BUN59/$File/gw_faq.pdf

Page 14: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

“Keeling” CO2 curve at Mauna Loa

Page 15: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

What is the evidence that the CO2 rise is anthropogenic?

1000 million metric tons = 1GTon

Page 16: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Is the increase in atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases anthropogenic in origin?

Yes:

(1) The observed increase is consistent with fossil fuel burning

(2) The isotopic composition (type of carbon) in the air today is very different from air from 100 to 1000 years ago, based on analyses of air from ice and firn (snow layer) cores. The present-day composition indicates fossil fuel burning is responsible for the CO2 increase. (the “Suess effect”, another UCSD/SIO carbon great)

Page 17: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

“Keeling” curve and same in southern

hemisphere.

Oxygen in atmosphere

(Manning and Keeling, 2005)

13C/12C isotopic ratio in CO2 at

Mauna Loa, showing increase that matches with

global emissions of carbon

Page 18: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

CO2 rise in the atmosphere: about 3 GtonC/yr of the 6-7 GtonC/yr. This is the portion that fuels greenhouse gas-

induced climate change.

Page 19: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

60 62 3 Gton/yr stays in atmosphere

2 Gton/yr into ocean

0.5 Gton/yr into vegetation

Remainder: 2 Gton/yr - mystery???

Textbook version - pre-industrial revolution

numbers for atmosphere-ocean CO2 exchange

Page 20: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

90 92

Sink of anthropogenic CO2?

Fossil fuel burning and changing land use create about 6-7 GtC/yr excess. Of this, about 1/2 stays in the atmosphere, 1/3 goes into the ocean, and 1/6 goes into new terrestrial vegetation.

Page 21: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

OK - CO2 rise is anthropogenic, but are observed changes in temperature, ice cover,

sea level, etc. caused by the rise in greenhouse gases?

Look at temperature observations, and then at large computer simulations of climate.

Page 22: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’sgreenhouse effect

Page 23: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s global mean energy balance

Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997

Page 24: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s surface temperature variations

Last 2000 years

Moberg et al (2005) reconstruction

Last 120 years

Page 25: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s surface temperature variations:trend from 1901 to 2004

Smith and Reynolds, 2005

Page 26: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Arctic warming and ice retreathttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html

1990 1999

Impacts of ice melt: (1) sea level rise, (2) low salinity cap on North Atlantic that would impeded deep water formation and change circulation/climate of North Atlantic region/world.

The year 2002 showed lowest level of sea ice on record (NASA)

Page 27: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Arctic warming and ice retreathttp://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html

1999 2002

At the rate of melting in last 15 years, could disappear entirely by the end of the century. Melt period begins earlier than 10 years ago. Strong feedback with climate (ice-albedo)

Page 29: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Greenland ice cap

http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

Greenland ice velocities, Rignot and Kangaratnam, Science Feb. 17, 2006

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 30: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Antarctic ice shelf melting

Larsen ice shelf on the Antarctic peninsula: piece larger than Rhode Island broke off

Jan. 31, 2002 March 5, 2002

Mechanism for breakup: warmer weather creates melt water ponds on the surface that seep down and weaken the ice

http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/index.html

Page 31: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Antarctic ice shelf melting

Big concerns (media scares) seem to center on breakup of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf. Very large - if it were to go, then sea level would rise 10 meters.

Very unlikely to happen for several centuries but …

March 3, 2006, 1:30AM

Antarctica's ice melts faster than snowfall can replace itSatellite survey indicates that the continent is steadily shrinking

By ROBERT LEE HOTZLos Angeles Times

(based on paper appearing in Science, March 3, 2006)

Page 32: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Observed temperature changes: are they due to anthropogenic forcing?

Temperature increases can be due to:

(1) Solar radiation changes (cools or warms) - 11year cycle0.6 to 0.7 W/m2. All reconstructions indicate that the direct effect of

variations in solar forcing over the 20th century was about 20 to 25% of the change in forcing due to increases in the well-mixed greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001)

(2) Volcanic eruptions (more particles, sulphates, cools the planet) -3 W/m2

(3) Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (warms climate)

(4) Anthropogenic aerosols (mostly cools climate)

How to tell the difference between (1) and (3)?

Page 33: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? Reason 1

(1) Observed warming is stronger at high latitudes than low latitudes ---> anthropogenic cause because:

(a) If due to solar radiation forcing, then water vapor would increase, and most warming would be in the wet lower latitudes.

(b) If anthropogenic CO2 increase is the cause, warming would be at higher latitudes since CO2 is more uniformly spread through all latitudes, and CO2 is a much higher relative part of greenhouse gases in the dry high latitudes

Page 34: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s surface temperature variations:trend from 1901 to 2004

Smith and Reynolds, 2005

Page 35: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s surface temperature variations:trend from 1979 to 2004

Smith and Reynolds, 2005

Page 36: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? (high latitudes warm more)

The spatial pattern of the simulated surface temperature response to a steady increase in greenhouse gases is well documented (e.g., Kattenberg et al., 1996; Chapter 10). The warming is greater over land than over ocean and generally small during the 20th century over the Southern Ocean and northern North Atlantic where mixing extends to considerable depth. The warming is amplified in high latitudes in winter by the recession of sea ice and snow, and is close to zero over sea ice in summer.

Page 37: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? Reason 2

(2) Warming is more evident in nighttime temperatures (difference between day and night temperatures is decreasing)

---> anthropogenic change because:

greenhouse gases trap heat at night as well as during the day, so there would be relatively more warming at night

Page 38: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Earth’s surface temperature variations:

maximum and minimum

temperatures and diurnal range

Vose et al., 2005

Minimum = night temperatures

Maximum = day temperatures

Difference - shows night is warming more

Page 39: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? Reason 3: Stratospheric cooling

“The vertical response to solar forcing (Figure 12.5) includes warming throughout most of the troposphere. The response in the stratosphere is small and possibly locally negative, but less so than with greenhouse gas forcing, which gives tropospheric warming and strong stratospheric cooling. The dependence of solar forcing on wavelength and the effect of solar fluctuations on ozone were generally omitted in these simulations. Hence, the conclusion that changes in solar forcing have little effect on large-scale stratospheric temperatures remains tentative.” (IPCC, 2001)

Page 40: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? Reason 3

(3) Stratospheric cooling: a signature of anthropogenic warming

Figure 12.5: (a) solar forcing.

(b) greenhouse gas-induced temperature change

Page 41: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Natural versus anthropogenic Temperature change? (observations of stratospheric cooling)

Page 42: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Results of warming

Change in precipitation patterns

Rise in sea level - melting of land ice, increased temperature of oceans causing them to expand, (rebound of land from last ice age)

Change in extreme weather (greater variability - bigger extremes)

Page 43: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Observed trends in

precipitable water (warmer

world has more water

vapor)

Trenberth et al. 2005

Page 44: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Sea level - what causes it to change?

1. Add more water to the oceans: melt glaciers and landfast ice (Antarctic ice cap and Greenland ice cap are the biggest).

2. Warm the ocean: thermal expansion of water will cause sea level to rise. This has been the main effect in observed sea level rise

3. (NOTE: melting sea ice does not cause sea level to rise)

How fast is sea level rising? 2 to 3 mm/year, about 2/3 due to thermal expansion, 1/3 due to land ice melt.

Page 45: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Observed global mean sea level rise (Barnett, 1988)

14 cm

(2 mm/year)

(other estimates are up to 20 cm)

Page 46: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Sea level rise: world sea level has risen up to 20 cm in the past century (60 years of data required to discern trends)

Page 47: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Sea level rise - vulnerable areas

National Academy of Sciences 2001

Page 48: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Sea level rise

From NAS workshop, 2001

Major impacts are on deltas with low sediment input

Chesapeake Bay already impacted (crabbing industry)

Delaware Bay, Outer Banks, other regions of east coast

Expected accelerating impacts on Mississippi Delta (New Orleans and barrier islands - about 1/3 lost since 1880), Venice

Page 49: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Sea level impacts in eastern U.S. (U.S. EPA global warming - publication)

Page 50: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Predicting the future: from Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (2001) Technical

summary

Page 51: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Climate models for

global change

Page 52: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Climate models

IPCC (2001) uses results from 20 Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs). These come from world modeling centers. In the U.S., some of the centers that participate are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA), the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Los Alamos (DOE).

Each modeling center is given the forcings for the IPCC scenarios and then runs its climate model with these forcings. The IPCC committees then compare the results, evaluate the models, and average the results to yield a prediction and error bar.

The models differ from each other - sometimes significantly

Page 53: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Modeling CO2 rise in atmosphere and

associated climate change

IPCC 2001 Scenarios

A: strong steps to curb emissions

B: medium steps to curb emissions

C: rapid growth, multiple energy sources

D: “business as usual” continue as we are going today, most energy from fossil fuels

Page 54: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Modeling CO2 rise and global change

Old scenarios for IPCC (prior to 2001 report, which was the “Third”):

Doubling CO2 in the atmosphere creates about 2.5°C change

So each doubling causes change: “business as usual” scenario prediction is 5°C change over next 100 years.

Conclusion of the previous 2 reports that (1) greenhouse gases were increasing, and (2) that observed temperature changes might or might not be attributable to greenhouse gas increases.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

IPCC 2001 (“Third Assessment Report”): definitive conclusion that observed temperature changes result from anthropogenic forcing.

Page 55: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Expressing greenhouse gases as “radiative forcing”

4.4 W/m2 <---> double CO2 levels <---> 2.5°C change

Page 56: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Predicting temperature change by 2300

Prediction is 5-fold increase in CO2 --->

about 10°C change by year 2300 before decrease

Decrease in atmospheric CO2 is due to the processes we have

discussed: ocean uptake, sea-floor sedimentation

and dissolution, weathering

Page 57: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Temperature change in climate models with anthropogenic CO2 forcing

Page 58: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Patterns of predicted

temperature change:

Model results from IPCC.

Scenario D (business as usual)

Scenario B (modest growth, some measures to curb emissions)

Page 59: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Global sea level projections

Page 60: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Modeled changes in biomass for doubled

CO2

Page 61: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Is the Earth’s climate changing?

“The answer is unequivocally “Yes”.”

IPCC 2001 Technical Summary

“Arctic-dwelling Inuit have a word for their crazy weather - Uggianaqtuq. Pronounce it "oog-gi-a-nak-took." It means "to behave unexpectedly”. The Arctic, (scientists) say, is undergoing profound ecological change. It's become the poster child for global warming. Not only are average air temperatures rising, ice sheets thinning, and permafrost melting, the whole complex interconnected network of arctic life and its environment are changing in ways not reflected in the geological record or Inuit lore. This no longer is a forecast of what might happen in future decades. It is happening right now.”

Robert C. Cowen, Christian Science Monitor, Jan. 6, 2005

Page 62: ESYS 10 Introduction to Environmental Systems March 7, 2006 Reading: Chapter 16 Global Warming and Technical Summary for the IPCC Chapter 16 problems:

Term paper presentations

The purpose is to inform the class about the topic - useful takeaway information, resources, etc.

6-7 groups total

1 hr 20 minutes -> about 10 minutes per topic

Each group - coordinate your information and decide how to present. You can delegate to 1 or 2 people to present everyone’s information, or have a tightly choreographed presentation with everyone getting up and doing 1 slide/overhead.

Organization suggestions:

Science first - what happens, how does it happen

Impacts second - what is affected, who is affected