EUR-USD at Pivotal Juncture

8/6/2019 EUR-USD at Pivotal Juncture

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EUR-USD is at a pivotal juncture with any further gains reducing the probability that the

medium term wave cycle is still bearish. The impulsive move down in US stocks last

week is a first clue that the long awaited reversal is imminent. 1302 on the S&P 500 cash

must hold as resistance for that to be the case.

Cross-asset summary

____________________ Elliott wave cycle direction ________________Short-term

(Multi-day/week)Medium-term

(Multi-week/month)Long-term

(Multi-month/year)

US Dollar Index Euro Index Japanese Yen Index British Pound Index Asian Currency Index (ex Yen) USD 3-Month Interest Rate USD 10-Year Yield EUR 10-Year Yield JPY 10-Year Yield USD BBB 10-Year Spread China / HK (Hang Seng) USA (S&P 500) Europe (Stoxx 600) Japan (Topix) Brazil (Bovespa) Commodity Index (S&P GSCI) Gold Crude Oil Source: HSBC Bank plc

= Up,= Down,= Range,= Bottoming,= Topping

01 February 2011Macro

Technical Analysis

Short Term

Murray Gunn CFTeHead of Technical Analysis

HSBC Bank plc

+44 20 7991 5384

[email protected]

View HSBC Global Research at:http://www.research.hsbc.com

ssuer of report: HSBC Bank plc

Disclaimer &Disclosures

This report must be readwith the disclosures andthe analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it

Short Cycle Report

EUR-USD at pivotal juncture

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EUR-USD 1.3787 key resistanceEUR-USD Medium Term Chart

Source: HSBC, Updata, Bloomberg

A rise above 1.3787 increases the chances of broad medium term range trading between 1.35 and 1.50.

EUR-USD Short Term Chart



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GBP-USD 1.6230 key resistanceGBP-USD Medium Term Chart


A-B-C zigzag from the May 2010 low.

GBP-USD Short Term Chart



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USD-JPY critical support at 80.94USD-JPY Medium Term Chart


USD-JPY Short Term Chart



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USD-TRY critical support 1.5549USD-TRY Medium Term Chart


A bullish structure but bearish divergence between price and RSI dilutes the bull potential.

USD-TRY Short Term Chart



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Gold 1352 key short term resistanceGold Medium Term Chart


Gold Short Term Chart


As long as USD1,393 holds as resistance, the short term cycle is down.


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Bund 2.84% pivotEuro-Bund 10-Year Yield Medium Term Chart


Bund Future Short Term Chart



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BoblEuro-Bobl 5 Year Yield Medium Term Chart


Bobl Future Short Term Chart



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US stock market 1302 S&P 500 must hold as resistance nowNew York Stock Exchange Composite Index with Breadth - Medium Term Chart


New highs continue to be made on weakening breadth as seen by the fact that the average of advancing

minus declining issues has been making lower highs since October.

S&P 500 Short Term Chart



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Our technical analysis methodology

Technical market analysis is, at its essence, a study of crowd behaviour and market psychology.

R.N.Elliotts Wave Principle is based on his empirically derived discovery in the 1930s that market

prices move in recognisable, repeating patterns and that these patterns reflect a basic natural harmony

manifested in the inherent herding behaviour of crowds. Elliott discovered that these crowd behaviour

cycles appeared at every time scale and whilst they were repetitive in structure they were not always

repetitive in amplitude or the time taken to form. Robert Prechter Jnr has developed Elliotts Wave

Principle to uncover that a market driven by human decision makers is a robust fractal that may look

chaotic but is actually following a structured formal progression. Essentially a detailed description of

Dow Theory and the orthodox pattern recognition of Edwards & Magee, Elliotts Wave Principle (being

based on price and volume) is the purest form of technical analysis and is the foundation of our analysis

process. Please see the HSBC Elliott Wave Principle Basic Guide for a fuller explanation.

We enhance this analysis by overlaying a large suite of indicators (Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving

Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), trend exhaustion etc), volatility and volume data to gauge

sentiment and trend strength, looking for divergences and confirmation. It is vitally important in technical

analysis to view indicators in relation to where the market is in its wave cycle. For instance, an oscillator

showing that a market is overbought could be a confirmation of the start of an extended up trend if it

appears in the wave one position of an impulse wave. Failure to combine a reading of indicators with

where the market is in the wave structure results in a forced appreciation of the Keynesian paraphrase that

the markets can remain overbought or oversold longer than you or I can remain solvent. Other sentiment

indicators such as option pricing, put/call ratios, positioning data and surveys are also used in our

methodology in order to gather as much evidence as possible in coming to our technical analysis

conclusions.

With regards to translating these analysis conclusions into actual trading ideas and positions, we employ

our Trend-Wave Trading methodology. Trend-Wave Trading is a medium-term (multi-week/month)

investment process that combines the technical analysis of the Elliott Wave Principle with the objective

discipline of Trend Following. A potential trade set-up is given by the wave structure and supportingtechnical analysis such as Japanese candlesticks, trend extension and exhaustion measures, momentum

oscillators and sentiment. However, the trade is only executed when there is an objective movement of

momentum in the direction the technical analysis suggests. Specifically, momentum is measured by the

crossing of a short moving average (5 day) with a long average (40 day). If the market price is above the

200 day average when a buy signal is given or below the 200 day when a sell signal is given, more

confidence and size is given to the trade. Initial trade entry and full trade exit is governed by the moving

averages acting as both a trailing stop loss and take profit discipline. By overlaying a disciplined, proven

investment strategy such as Trend Following on our technical analysis we seek to run winning trades and

cut losing trades early.


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Disclosure appendix

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the

opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their

personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Murray Gunn

Important DisclosuresThis document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the

clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.

This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer

to buy the securities or other investment products mentioned in it and/or to participate in any trading strategy. Advice in this

document is general and should not be construed as personal advice, given it has been prepared without taking account of the

objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the advice,

consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If necessary, seek

professional investment and tax advice.

Certain investment products mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, and they may

not be suitable for all types of investors. Investors should consult with their HSBC representative regarding the suitability of

the investment products mentioned in this document and take into account their specific investment objectives, financialsituation or particular needs before making a commitment to purchase investment products.

The value of and the income produced by the investment products mentioned in this document may fluctuate, so that an

investor may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls

in value that could equal or exceed the amount invested. Value and income from investment products may be adversely

affected by exchange rates, interest rates, or other factors. Past performance of a particular investment product is not indicative

of future results.

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment

banking revenues.

For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that

company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.

* HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures

1 This report is dated as at 01 February 2011.2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 31 January 2011, unless otherwise indicated in the report.3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its

Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Researchoperate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrierprocedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or

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Disclaimer

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Global

David BloomGlobal Head of FX Research+44 20 7991 5969 [email protected]

Asia

Richard YetsengaGlobal Head of EM FX Strategy

+852 2996 6565 [email protected]

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United States

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Clyde WardleEM FX Strategist


Marjorie HernandezFX Strategist (Latin America)


Technical Analysis

Murray GunnHead of Technical Analysis

+44 20 7991 5384 murray,[email protected]

Precious Metals

James SteelCommodities Analyst+1 212 525 6515 [email protected]

Global Currency Strategy Research Team

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EUR-USD at Pivotal Juncture