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Europe 100% renewable in 2050
A logical explanationfor a realistic, affordable and feasible vision
Kristian Petrick
July 2009
Ecofys International
www.ecofys.com
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 2
With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects
Introduction
„I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and
returning him safely to the Earth."John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 3
What is required to be convinced of a vision?– An open mind to follow logical arguments
Agenda
1.Is it realistic?
2.Can we afford it?
3.Can we do it?
a) Concept of
„Energy Autonomy“
b) Examples
c) Energy Outlook
a) Cost curves
b) Business vs. public
economics
a) Urgency
b) Stakeholder Analysis
c) Recommendations
Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 4
Europe
Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand
Wind parks,solar plants, geothermal,wave power,
…
Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, ....
Homes and buildings
Regions / Countries
Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, ...
Appliances: Washing machines, motors, ...
Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, ...
Apartment buildings, vehicles, ...
Cities,Industries
Villages and municipalities
1.a Concept of Energy Autonomy
Animated slide
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 5
1.b Examples: Devices
Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid
Solar-calculators
Existing…
Solar-mobile phones
Solar-MP3 Player
Solar-Notebooks
Missing…
Designed byAlbert Bellot,
Econcern
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 6
Accept higher efficiency standards and generate your own energy – and be proud of it
1.b Examples: Appliances and buildings
New appliances only with highest standardsallowed
South
Gas / Oil
Future …Today …
„Passive House“
„House with PV“
„Self-sufficient House“
„Power House“
South
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 7
Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing
1.b Examples: Vehicles
Still missing …Existing …
3-liter Porsche3-liter Lupo
E-Car Think E-Mini
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 8
Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe
1.b Examples: Industry
Aluminium plant withsolar power, Spain
Aluminium plant withwind and ocean power, UK
Aluminium plant withhydro power, Norway
Aluminium plant withbiomass power, Netherlands
Maybe soon …Today …
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 9
Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby
1.b Examples: Municipalities and regions
CoalUranium Gas
Gas
Oil
Oil
Europe in 2050 …Europe today …
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 10
Renewable energies
Fossil and nuclear energies
• Energy Conservation / Savings• Energy Efficiency• Intelligent („passive“) use of energy
100%„Active“ use
of energy
2050Small or easy applications/installations Complex industries/cities
Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently – and the vision comes automatically true
1.c Energy Outlook
Energy Use
Today
Growth of renewables, decrease of total energy use
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
En
erg
y U
se
8% growth until 2020, 5% until 2040, then 2% 8% growth until 2015, 5% until 2030, then 2%
8% growth until 2025, 5% until 2040, then 2% 8% growth until 2020, 5% until 2040, then 2%
0.5% savings + efficiency 2% savings + efficiency until 2020, then 1%
1% savings + efficiency
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 11
So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs?
Agenda
1.Is it realistic?
2.Can we afford it?
3.Can we do it?
a) Concept of
„Energy Autonomy“
b) Examples
c) Energy Outlook
a) Cost curves
b) Business vs. public
economics
a) Urgency
b) Stakeholder Analysis
c) Recommendations
Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 12
Accept that the times of cheap energy will not come back – but realize that only renewables can get cheaper
2.a Cost curves
Time
developing countries
Countries in transition
developed countries
Energy costsRenewable energies
• Economies of scale• Technical improvements
Affordable for...
Fossil/nuclear energies• Depletion• Internalization of emissions • Security of supply
Today(depending on technology and location)
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 13
Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean
Equipment & financing
State
Fossil economy
Fossil Fuels & security of supply
€€
€kWh
subsidies / support
schemes
taxes €
Equipment & financing
State
Renewable economy
€
€kWh
subsidies / support
schemes
taxes
2.b Business- vs. socio-economic costs
Bu
sin
ess
eco
no
mic
sS
oci
o e
con
om
ics
€
€
Damages
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 14
Keep in mind that the affordability argument only matters for living a „good“ life, not a „luxurious“ one
2.c Relevant energy costs
Luxury products and energy intensive leisure activities
Food,health,clothing
Savings /Provisions
Housing / living
Work, education,social life, vacation,
information,related mobility
Energy required...
.. must be affordable ... can be expensive
... for basicneeds & pleasure
... for additional convenience and leisure
Use of income... „Good life“
Relevant energy costsSustainability discussion
(not focus of this presentation)
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 15
If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do?
Agenda
1.Is it realistic?
2.Can we afford it?
3.Can we do it?
a) Concept of
„Energy Autonomy“
b) Examples
c) Energy Outlook
a) Cost curves
b) Business vs. public
economics
a) Urgency
b) Stakeholder Analysis
c) Recommendations
Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 16
Be aware that we have to get on the right track now– and not waste time and money anymore
3.a Urgency
2015< 100
months Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide
2008 2050
We need a convincing vision to• implement renewables faster• avoid investments in old technologies• avoid unnecessary emissions• get innovative ideas of more people• create optimism
RenewablesFossil & nuclear
Savings, eficiency and intelligent use
Use of energy
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 17
3.b Stakeholder Analysis
Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies
Target Group
Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables
Deciders / Multipliers:• Politicians• Managers / Entrepreneurs• Private „Budget Holders“
Interests
„Normal“ Population:• Private citizens• Employees / Workforce• Administration
European Population
Stakeholders
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 18
Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it
Serious humor
“The metal workers destroy our workplaces”
“Save thehand axe industry!”
“Union Stone and Axe:
Maintain the subsidies”
“Save us”Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 19
1. Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change
2. Buy smart(= considering energy)
3. Switch / turn off what you don‘t use
1. Invest smart(= considering energy)
2. Improve & support renewable technologies
3. Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs
1. Implement consistent policies quickly
2. Provide infrastructure and support
3. Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities
and „normal“ citizens and employees / workforce and administration staff
Act and invest consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today
3.c Recommendations
Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 20
Get inspired by a fascinating vision– for yourself, for our children and for mankind
A European Vision
„We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal,before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies and
living in a sustainable way on Earth."
The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union,the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2009
Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 21
A 100% renewable Europe in 2050 is realistic, affordable and feasible – just spread the word!
Conclusion
Contact:Kristian Petrick
Ecofys Spain+34 936 455 458
Thank you for
your attention!
