Europe in the Future!

Sovereign Community

or

Multiple Nations

Europe in 21st Century by:

• Jeff Beck • John Lepore

• Pisit Khumon• David Wright

Introduction

• What will become of Europe in the next Century?

• The United States of Europe?

• Can Europe become a sovereign state?

• Will Europe be the only Superpower in the world?

Organizational Future?

• European Community (EC)

• North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

• European Free Trade Association (EFTA)

• Potential Organizations

Integrated Europe

• World Trade

• High Tech Industries

• Europe’s Resources

• An Uncommon Europe

Common Market

• Vested Interests

• Mergers and Acquisitions

• Income and Social Welfare

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)

• Growing gap between industry and agricultural standard of living

Common European Currency

• Benefits

• Political Control

Power of European Institutions

• European Commission

• Council of Ministers

• European Parliament

Foreign and Defense Policy

• Common European Defense

• Collapse of the Soviet Union

The German Question

• How to achieve a harmonious relationship between the most populous, economically productive, technologically advanced, and military efficient nations in Europe and its smaller, less powerful neighbors?

Demographics Trends

• The Graying of Europe– High age of population

• Migration– Effected by the border countries

The Graying of Europe

• Declining of populations

• France– 10 M people aged over 60 out of 55 M rise to

15 M by 2020

• West Germany– Committing suicide 61 M to 45 M by 2030

(forecasting)

The Graying of Europe

• Ireland– natural replacement level

• Overall Europe– peak in 2000 (320 M) fall by 2100 (300 M) by

forecasting

Migration

• Germany, Austria, and Hungary– Immigrants from the former USSR and Eastern

Europe

• France, Spain, and Italy– Immigrants from North Africa and Middle

Eastern

Immigration Concerns

• Not melting-pot society

• Not for forestalling future labor shortage

Environmental Issues

• Degree of pollution– Northwestern Europe and Scandinavia– Mediterranean– Overall

• “clean energy” taxes

Types of Pollution

• The effects of global warming

• Rising sea level in low-lying areas

• Heavy-handed industrialization by Eastern Europe

• The massive growth populations surrounding the Mediterranean

Other Concerns

• Overseas aid– Europe countries contribute overseas aid for the

developing world by average more than any other developed countries (Chart)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

%of GNPA

ustr

ia

Irela

nd

U.K

.

Japan

Italy

Canada

Fin

land

Sw

eden

Neth

erlands

DA

C t

arg

et

Source: OECD (1987 figures)

Overseas Aid and National Income

Series1

Technologically-Driven Global Changes

• Biotech revolution in agriculture and food processing

• May lead to dependence on giant agrochemical conglomerates

A Robotics Revolution Exists but Probably Won’t Become as Important as Advances

in Biotechnology

• Decentralized• Rare in European industry• Rate of installation may be leveraged by Japanese

factories

Financial and Communications Revolution

• Multinational corporations• Bankers• Giant companies• Consultants, engineers and merchant bankers• Media conglomerates• Airlines

Problems with European Globalization

• Creation of a “social gulf”

• Contradiction of EC’s aim to deepening economic and political unity

Conclusion: Europe 21st CenturyPros for Unification

• Ease of currency exchange• Migration and travel• Improve technology transfer and communications• Stimulate world trade and economy• Stronger support for financial support to

developing nations