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Press Conference Brussels, October 9 th 2008 Stefano Baldi Researcher “Agriculture and Food Unit” Nomisma. EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURE: THE ROLE OF PLANT PROTECTION PRODUCTS (PPPs). The evolution of the PPP regulation framework: effects on PPP availability. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURE:
THE ROLE OFPLANT PROTECTION PRODUCTS (PPPs)
EUROPEAN AGRICULTURE OF THE FUTURE:
THE ROLE OFPLANT PROTECTION PRODUCTS (PPPs)
Press ConferenceBrussels, October 9th 2008
Stefano BaldiResearcher
“Agriculture and Food Unit” Nomisma
PRESS CONFERENCE 24/01/2008 2PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 2
The evolution of the PPP regulation framework: effects on PPP availability
* Source: EU-DG Health and consumer protection (Update 11/08/2008)
Proposal for New Regulation replacing Dir. 91/414/EEC
The proposal contains some conditions (cut-off criteria, comparative assessment, data protection) which could substantially reduce PPP availabilityAccording to the Pesticides Safety Directorate (UK) impact assessment, the reduction in available active substances (cut-off criteria + candidates for substitution) could be:
• 31% based on the Commission Proposal• 82% based on the European Parliament Proposal
Already, 91/414/EEC has been reducing the number of PPPs included in the positive list (20% of 1,061 active substances (ASs) evaluated were
approved, while 64% were excluded and 16% are still pending)*
The impacts of the new regulation:case studies
Reduced availability of PPPs in EU-27 could generate impactsover long term (2020)
New regulation effects + availability of new PPPs due to R&D activity of PPP Industry
Reduced availability of PPPs in EU-27 could generate impactsover long term (2020)
New regulation effects + availability of new PPPs due to R&D activity of PPP Industry
Static evaluationStatic evaluation
yield reduction
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 3
The impacts of the new regulation:European production trends
135 Mil t.
179 Mil hlt.
64 Mil t.
293 Mil t.
Present situation (2006)
Taking into account general economic trends, the impact of the changing regulation framework could contribute to production drops of between 30-25% in wheat and cereals, with an even higher negative impact on potatoes (50%), and around a 7% reduction in wine output
Present situation
New regulation
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 4
The impacts of the new regulation:European self-sufficiency trends
119%
105%
102%
104%
Present situation (2006)
Taking into account general economic trends, the impact of the changing regulation framework could contribute to a loss of self-sufficiency, generating a dependence on foreign suppliers in all case studies
Present situation
New regulation
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 5
Reduction of EU-27 agricultural self-sufficiency: impacts on the European economic system
Reduced self-sufficiency in agriculture generates negative effects on the Agri-food sector
and the overall economic system
Loss of Competitiveness
Food safety and quality as main
success factor of European food
products in internal and extra–EU
markets
Loss of Competitiveness
Food safety and quality as main
success factor of European food
products in internal and extra–EU
markets
Safeguarding of European model
Preservation of income and employment in
agri-food and related sectors (retail trade, services, transport,
energy, machinery).Multifunctionality of agriculture in rural
areas
Safeguarding of European model
Preservation of income and employment in
agri-food and related sectors (retail trade, services, transport,
energy, machinery).Multifunctionality of agriculture in rural
areas
Guarantees of food safety and qualityHigh integration between agriculture and food industry:•Production model respects high hygienic, safety and quality standards;•Typical products•Traceability
Guarantees of food safety and qualityHigh integration between agriculture and food industry:•Production model respects high hygienic, safety and quality standards;•Typical products•Traceability
Increasing deficit in agricultural trade balance(+20% 1999/2006)
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 6
In this context,the European Agri-food sector could face ...
Rising commodity and food prices
Loss of international competitiveness
Jeopardises the availability of safe, high quality, locally produced food
Inability to take advantage of new market opportunities
Reduced world export share
PRESS CONFERENCE 09/10/2008 7
Thank you for your attention
Stefano Baldi
Researcher at Nomisma“Agriculture and Food Unit”
Thank you for your attention
Stefano Baldi
Researcher at Nomisma“Agriculture and Food Unit”
PRESS CONFERENCE 24/01/2008 9
Impacts of the new regulation framework:the methodology
High variability of EU-27 agriculture
How much do PPPs affect crop yield?Organic production is an agricultural system which uses the lowest quantity of PPPs (some “natural” PPPs permitted). Nomisma assumes that crop yields without using PPPs will be the same as those registered in organic agriculture (conservative approach)What is the impact of the changing regulatory framework on crop yields?For each crop, a reduced availability of PPPs results in a yield drop to a level between current yield and organic yield. The study provided estimates of yields within this range over the medium term (Dir. 91/414 impact) and over the long term (New regulation replacing Dir. 91/414). The evaluation takes into account the effects of ongoing innovation in the R&D activities of the PPP Industry How this phenomenon impacts on general crop trends?The impact assessment over the medium-long term also needed to take into account general trends for the main variables (yield, cultivated area, production, domestic use, import-export). Thus a dynamic evaluation (scenario analysis) was conducted by Nomisma for each crop, thus allowing analysis of the effects of individual PPPs on yields within a general dynamic context
Empirical approach
PRESS CONFERENCE 24/01/2008 10
World economic trendscould exacerbate these developments
Increasing world demand for commodities and food•High growth in emerging economies (positive demographic and income trends) generates rising demand for food and, increasingly, for healthy and quality food•Increasing non-food use of agricultural raw materials (biofuels)Growing competition• Progressive trade liberalisation (WTO)• New global players in food production and trade (lower labour cost and consequently lower prices than in Europe)
Possible market shocksin the future
PRESS CONFERENCE 24/01/2008 11
Technological inputsFertilisers, Seeds, Plant Protection Products,
Veterinary products, Machinery, etc.
Technological inputsFertilisers, Seeds, Plant Protection Products,
Veterinary products, Machinery, etc.
Related sectors
Retail trade, services to companies,
financial activities, transport, energy,
chemicals, machinery
Related sectors
Retail trade, services to companies,
financial activities, transport, energy,
chemicals, machinery
EU marketHigh requirements for food safety and quality
(requested by citizens & consumer policy)
EU marketHigh requirements for food safety and quality
(requested by citizens & consumer policy)
Extra-EU marketGrowing demands for food safety and quality (mature markets and emerging economies)
Extra-EU marketGrowing demands for food safety and quality (mature markets and emerging economies)
AgricultureAgriculture
Availability of Raw Materials(guarantees of safety and quality)
Processed food(guarantees of safety and quality)
Agri-food
sector
Agri-food
sector
Global challenges
Market liberalisation
andcompetition,demographic
changes, attention to health and
food quality, environment,
bioenergy
Global challenges
Market liberalisation
andcompetition,demographic
changes, attention to health and
food quality, environment,
bioenergy
Food IndustryFood Industry
Main PPP links to the agri-food sectorand the overall economic system