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European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
TREMOVE baselineTREMOVE baseline
Consistency check with PRIMES-RAINS baselineConsistency check with PRIMES-RAINS baseline
UNECE TFIAM, AmiensUNECE TFIAM, Amiens
11 May 200411 May 2004Matti VainioMatti Vainio
Jacques DelsalleJacques Delsalle European CommissionEuropean Commission
DG Environment, Clean Air and Transport UnitDG Environment, Clean Air and Transport Unit
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
TREMOVE Development: Project TREMOVE Development: Project statusstatus
Lot 1 (2003)Lot 1 (2003) Model design and preliminary baseline (2.0) completed
March 2004 (available on www.tremove.org) Lot 2 (2004)Lot 2 (2004)
Baseline consistency checks with RAINS Stakeholder Consultation on model and baseline Identification of emission reduction options Model ready: Oct. 2004 (revised baseline 2.3, all modules)
Lot 3 (2005-2006) : Policy SimulationsLot 3 (2005-2006) : Policy Simulations
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
TREMOVE/SCENES vs. TREMOVE/SCENES vs. RAINS/PRIMESRAINS/PRIMES
RAINSPRIMESPax.kmTon.km
Fuel Consumption
PollutantsEmissions
Macro-economic Assumptions
SCENESPax.kmTon.km TREMOVE
Vehicle.km
Fuel Consumption
PollutantsEmissions
(COPERT II in v. 2.0)
Make 2 modelling frameworksMake 2 modelling frameworkssinging from the same hymn sheet…singing from the same hymn sheet…
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Projection Passenger Transport Volumes Projection Passenger Transport Volumes 2020 close (-4.3%) for road2020 close (-4.3%) for road
1012 Passenger-Kilometres
012345678
tre
mo
ve
pri
me
s
tre
mo
ve
pri
me
s
tre
mo
ve
pri
me
s
1995 1995 2000 2000 2020 2020
[Inland Navigation]
Aviation
Rail
Road Public Transport
Road Cars + Motorcycles
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Projection Freight Transport Volumes Projection Freight Transport Volumes 2020 close (+1.5%) for road.2020 close (+1.5%) for road.
1012 Ton-Kilometres
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
tremove primes tremove primes tremove primes
1995 1995 2000 2000 2020 2020
Inland Navigation
Rail
Road
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Fuel consumption underestimated in Fuel consumption underestimated in TREMOVE (-23% in 2000). Gap increases TREMOVE (-23% in 2000). Gap increases by 2020 by 2020
Road Fuel Consumption - Peta-Joule
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1995 1995 2000 2000 2020 2020
TREMOVE PRIMES TREMOVE PRIMES TREMOVE PRIMES
Heavy Duty
Light Duty - Other
Light Duty -Gasoline
Light Duty - Diesel
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
TREMOVE has stronger diesel TREMOVE has stronger diesel penetration (80% vs. 60% in 2020) and penetration (80% vs. 60% in 2020) and impact on PM emissions.impact on PM emissions.
Road PM Emissions - ktonnes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1995 2000 2000 2020 2020
TREMOVE RAINS TREMOVE RAINS TREMOVE RAINS
Heavy Duty - Other
Heavy Duty - Diesel
Light Duty - Other
Light Duty - Diesel
Light Duty - Gasoline
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
TREMOVE baseline has TREMOVE baseline has lower NOx emissionslower NOx emissions
Road NOx Emissions - ktonnes
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1995 1995 2000 2000 2020 2020
TREMOVE RAINS TREMOVE RAINS TREMOVE RAINS
Road - Other
Road - Diesel
Road - Gasoline
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Off-RoadOff-Road: D: Demand and vehicle cate- emand and vehicle cate- gories not same in TREMOVE and RAINS gories not same in TREMOVE and RAINS
Tremove Non-Road PM - Ktonnes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 2000 2010 2020
maritime ship
freight train
pass. train
inland ship
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Next stepsNext steps
Further co-ordination between TREMOVE, Further co-ordination between TREMOVE, PRIMES AND RAINS modellersPRIMES AND RAINS modellers Action on fuel consumption in TREMOVE:
Revised fuel consumption factors for passenger cars Improvement truck modelling (load factors)
Assumption constant diesel share in RAINS to be modified
Further consistency check on RAINS emissions (different vehicle categories, non-road modes)
Revised Transport baseline ready for 31/8/2004
European Commission - DG Environment
Clean Air for Europe
Stakeholders consultationStakeholders consultationon the TREMOVE Baselineon the TREMOVE Baseline
3 Contact Group meetings in Leuven (Belgium)3 Contact Group meetings in Leuven (Belgium) 27th May: Transport Demand (SCENES) 28th May: Vehicle Stock (incl. Diesel share) 21st June: Emissions (COPERT III)
Agenda:Agenda: Baseline consistency check Focus on new Member States
If interested, please contact:If interested, please contact:[email protected] or [email protected] or [email protected]@cec.eu.int
