European Commission Regional Policy 1 Challenges for Sustainable Development arising from Climate Change Mouvement Européen de la Ruralité Brussels, 13

European CommissionRegional Policy

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Challenges for Sustainable Development arising from Climate Change

Mouvement Européen de la RuralitéBrussels, 13th November 2008

Agnes KelemenDG Regional Policy, European Commission


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EU Sustainable Development Strategy and Cohesion Policy

Key objectives of the EU SDS:• Environmental protection• Social equity and cohesion• Economic prosperity

Key objectives of Cohesion Policy:• Convergence• Regional Competitiveness and employment• Territorial cooperation

Key challenges:• Climate change and clean energy• Sustainable transport• Sustainable consumption and production• Conservation and management of natural resources• Public health• Social inclusion, demography and migration• Global poverty and sustainable development challenges


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Cohesion Policy and Sustainable DevelopmentLinkages in SDS to Cohesion Policy:• Social equity and cohesion are one of the 4 key objectives• “The overall aim of the renewed EU SDS is to identify and develop actions to enable

the EU to achieve continuous improvement of quality of life both for current and for future generations, through the creation of sustainable communities able to manage and use resources efficiently and to tap the ecological and social innovation potential of the economy, ensuring prosperity, environmental protection and social cohesion.”

Linkages of SDS and Lisbon:• “EU SDS recognises that investments in human, social and environmental capital as

well as technological innovation are the prerequisites for long-term competitiveness and economic prosperity, social cohesion, quality employment and better environmental protection.”

Linkages in Council Regulation 1083/2006 to SD• “Cohesion policy should contribute to increasing growth, competitiveness and

employment by incorporating the Community's priorities for sustainable development as defined at the Lisbon European Council of 23 and 24 March 2000 and at the Göteborg European Council of 15 and 16 June 2001.”

• “The objectives of the Funds shall be pursued in the framework of sustainable development and the Community promotion of the goal of protecting and improving the environment as set out in Article 6 of the Treaty.”


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Cohesion Policy and Sustainable DevelopmentReferences to sustainable development in the Cohesion Policy regulations:• Article 17 of Council Regulation 1083/2006 (General regulation): “The objectives of

the Funds shall be pursued in the framework of sustainable development and the Community promotion of the goal of protecting and improving the environment as set out in Article 6 of the Treaty.”

• Articles 4 and 5 of Council Regulation 1080/2006 (ERDF): focus of ERDF assistance under the convergence and competitiveness and employment objectives on environment and risk prevention

• Article 6 of Council Regulation 1080/2006 (ERDF): focus of ERDF assistance under the territorial cooperation objectives on environment and sustainable urban development

• Article 2 of Council Regulation 1084/2006 (Cohesion Fund): scope of assistance of the fund includes the environment within the priorities assigned to the Community environmental protection policy

References to the environment and sustainable development in the CommunityStrategic Guidelines:• One of 3 priority principles where cohesion policy should target resources: “improving

the attractiveness of Member States, regions and cities by improving accessibility, ensuring adequate quality and level of services, and preserving the environment.”

• As a horizontal issue: “Environmental protection needs to be taken into account in preparing programmes and projects with a view to promoting sustainable development.”


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Cohesion Policy and Sustainable Development

Cohesion Policy spending on environment in the 2007-2013 programming period• 14.5% of total Community amount on investments directly related to the environment • a further 15.8% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to the

environment• a total of 30.4%, including both direct and indirect figures• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective

Cohesion Policy spending on climate change in the 2007-2013 programming period• 4.7% of total Community amount on investments directly related to climate change

(renewable energy, energy efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, air quality, risk prevention)

• a further 9.2% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to climate change (railways, mobile rail assets, cycle tracks, intelligent transport systems, clean urban transport)

• a total of 13.9%, including both direct and indirect figures• approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective


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Relevance of climate change to regional policy

Climate change impacts and adaptation activities:• Horizontal theme: the mainstreaming of climate change has meant that

adaptation has to be considered horizontally across all activities undertaken climate proofing of activities

• Goals of policy: Climate change impacts show a strong core-periphery pattern, impacts will be most negative in Objective 1 regions climate change impacts need to be addressed for cohesion to be achieved

Mitigation activities:• Horizontal theme: in order to minimize overall costs to the economy efforts

have to be undertaken in all areas where low cost mitigation opportunities exist in order to achieve cost efficiency of emission reductions

• Goals of policy: possible synergies between mitigation activities and cohesion and growth, as well as trade-offs have to be considered


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I. Climate change impacts as drivers of change


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Climate change impactsVery long term

(climate stabilization under IPCC emission stabilization scenarios as late as 2150)

• increase in average yearly temperatures (under A2 scenario may be as high as 2-7°C in European regions)

• change in precipitation quantities and patterns (increase in northern Europe, decrease in summer precipitation as high as 70% in some southern European regions)

• increasing sea levels and risk of coastal erosion

Short to medium term impact (next 15 to 20 years)

• increasing frequency of extreme weather events

– storms,

– heavy rainfalls,

– droughts,

– peak summer temperatures


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Asymmetric impacts of climate change

• First order effects: changes in the climate system, e.g. in precipitation and temperature, resulting in changes in the environment

• Second order effects on regional level: changes in environmental conditions affect economic sectors, health and infrastructure, which results in

• impacts on regional growth potential• impacts on sustainability• impacts on equity

• Costs and benefits, winners and losers: climate change has an asymmetric impact on European regions

Regional endowments determine asymmetric impact, which depends on:• the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation• exposure of system to climate change• sensitivity of system to change• adaptive capacity of system exposed


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Asymmetric impacts: temperature change

Average annual temperature

• Temperature in Europe to increase by 2.5-5.5°C for the A2 scenario (3.4°C), and 1-4°C for the B2 scenario (2.4°C) by 2100

• For the A2 scenario, southern Europe will experience temperature increases between 3°C and more than 7°C, with warming greatest in the summer

• Northern Europe will experience temperature increases by less than 2°C and up to 4°C, with mainly winters getting less cold

Projected increase of average temperatures in 2071 to 2100 compared with 1961-1990 under

largely unchanged behaviour (A2 scenario)


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Asymmetric impacts: precipitation

Precipitation

• Increased precipitation in northern Europe

• less rainfall during summer time in Atlantic and continental Europe, but more winter rainfall

• decreases in annual average rainfall in southern and central Europe can be as high as 30-45%, and as high as 70% for summer rainfall in some regions

Projected changes in average yearly rainfall in 2071 to 2100 compared with 1961-1990 under largely

unchanged behaviour (A2 scenario)


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Asymmetric economic impacts of climate change

Regional share of agriculture and fisheries in GVA: Share of population working in agriculture high in areas which will be most negatively impacted by drought


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Asymmetric impacts: agriculture


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Climate change: asymmetric impacts

• Regional growth

– mild impacts in urban areas on economic output

– potentially strong impact on assets in densely populated areas with high asset values

– strong impacts on weather dependent sectors (tourism, agriculture, fishery, forestry, energy)

• Sustainability

– increased pressure on natural resources in both demand and supply (e.g. increased demand for water in times of drought accompanied by decreased supply)

• Equity

– strongly negatively affected in areas with high temperature increases and peak summer temperatures and low water availability

– increase in vulnerable share of population in regions with strongly ageing resident population


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II. Mitigation policy as a driver of change


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Climate change mitigation policy a driver of change

International climate policy context:• Need to reduce global emissions by 50-85% compared with 2000 by 2050 to assure

warming of global average surface temperature stays in the 2-2.4°C range, global emissions to peak in years 2000-2015 (IPCC 4AR)

• “Common but differentiated responsibilities” according to UNFCCC mean developed countries have to do more than the global average

EU climate policy context• 20% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990• 30% reduction in emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 if other developed and more

advanced developing countries agree to make comparable effort• 20% renewable energy compared with total energy consumption• 10% biofuels• With a view to collectively reducing emissions in developed countries by 60-80% by 2050

Considerable mitigation efforts will have to be made in all economic sectors


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Climate change mitigation: asymmetric impacts

Agriculture contributes 9% to total EU GHG emissions, emissions from agriculture are decreasing (473 Tg in 2006)

If indirect emissions (e.g. N2O from fertilizer production) and emissions from energy use are included then emissions around 20-30%

Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry net removals increasing (496 Tg in 2006)

Role for agriculture in mitigation:• contribution to mitigation in the energy sector (biomass, biogas)• Reduction of emissions in the agriculture sector

• Direct emissions:• CH4 from livestock and anaerobic decomposition• CO2 from fossil fuel use• CO2 from land use change

• Indirect emissions:• N2O emissions from fertilizer

• Increasing removals of CO2 from the atmosphere


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Climate change mitigation: asymmetric impacts

Regional growth – mild impacts at aggregate level, if changes are gradual (effect of

climate change and energy package on GDP by 2020 between -0.7-0.7% of GDP for all MS)

– potentially strong regional impact» strong impacts on energy intensive sectors such as transport and

heavy manufacturing– strong role of innovation and technology in adaptation and mitigation

Sustainability– possible win-win situations for energy efficient regions (economically in

GDP growth and employment, and environmentally)– some adaptations towards challenges might lead to increases in energy

use (e.g. cooling in Mediterranean areas)

Equity– effects on individual mobility– Significant welfare effects for lower income households through high

carbon and energy prices


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Thank you for your attention!

Documents

European Commission Regional Policy 1 Challenges for Sustainable Development arising from Climate Change Mouvement Européen de la Ruralité Brussels, 13