1

The following supplement accompanies the article

European drought regimes under mitigated and unmitigated

climate change: application of the Community Integrated

Assessment System (CIAS)

R. Warren1,*

, R. M. S. Yu1, T. J. Osborn

2, S. de la Nava Santos

1

1Tyndall Centre and

2Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich

NR4 7TJ, UK

*Email: r.warren@uea.ac.uk

Climate Research 51: 105–123 (2012)

Supplement. Additional data

Fig. S1. Total CO2 emissions (i.e. emission from fossil CO2 and land-use change)

between 2005 and 2100 in 5 SRES scenarios

2

Fig. S2. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 2005 and 2100 simulated for 5

SRES scenarios

Fig. S3. Fossil CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2100 for each of the stabilization

scenarios

3

Fig. S4. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 2005 and 2100 for each of the

stabilization scenarios as simulated by MAGICC climate model within CIAS tuned to

HadCM3

Fig. S5. Global and annual mean temperature changes (relative to the 1961–1990

average) simulated by HadCM3 for 5 SRES scenarios

4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge

(°C

)

550 ppm

500 ppm

450 ppm

400 ppm

Fig. S6. Global annual mean temperature change (relative to 1990) simulated by

MAGICC climate model within CIAS, tuned to HadCM3 for the stabilization scenarios

Fig. S7. CH4 emissions (sum of natural and anthropogenic emissions) between 2005

and 2100 for five SRES scenarios, and for each of the stabilization scenarios as

simulated by MAGICC climate model within CIAS, tuned to HadCM3. Note that the

emissions for 550, 500 and 450 fall along almost identical lines in the figure

5

Fig. S8. Atmospheric CH4 concentrations between 2005 and 2100 simulated for five

SRES scenarios, and for each of the stabilization scenarios as simulated by MAGICC

climate model within CIAS, tuned to HadCM3. Note that the concentrations for 550,

500 and 450 fall along almost identical lines in the figure

Fig. S9. N2O emissions (sum of natural and anthropogenic emissions) between 2005

and 2100 simulated for five SRES scenarios, and for each of the stabilization scenarios

as simulated by MAGICC climate model within CIAS, tuned to HadCM3. Note that

the emissions for 550, 500 and 450 fall along almost identical lines in the figure

6

Fig. S10. Atmospheric N2O concentrations between 2005 and 2100 simulated for five

SRES scenarios, and for each of the stabilization scenarios as simulated by MAGICC

climate model tuned to HadCM3 simulated by CIAS tuned to HadCM3, compared with

current observations. Note that the concentrations for 550, 500 and 450 fall along

almost identical lines in the figure

7

A1FI

B1

Observations

SPI5 drought (mo)

Fig. S11. Total number of months under SPI5 drought in 2050–98, simulated by CIAS

tuned to HadCM3, compared with current observations

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Fig. S12. Variation in total number of months under SPI5 drought in 2050-2098 under SRES

scenarios and in CO2 stabilization scenarios, compared to current observations, expressed as

averages over 4 European countries, showing the effect of tuning the climate model to emulate

the behaviour of 3 different global circulation models. (As Fig. 6 but for SPI5 drought)

9

Fig. S13. Variation in absolute frquency of SPI5 drought events in 2050-2098 under SRES

scenarios and in CO2 stabilization scenarios, compared to current observations, expressed as

averages over 4 European countries, showing the effect of tuning the climate model to emulate

the behaviour of 3 different global circulation models. (As Fig. 6 but for absolute frequency of

SPI5 drought events)

10

A1FI

550 ppm

500 ppm

450 ppm

400 ppm

SPI5 drought (mo)

Fig. S14. Total number of months under SPI5 drought in 2050–98, simulated by CIAS

tuned to HadCM3, for the A1FI SRES scenario and four stabilization scenarios

11

A1FI

550 ppm

500 ppm

450 ppm

400 ppm

SPI12 drought (mo)

Fig. S15. As Fig. 7 but using CIAS tuned to ECHAM4

12

A1FI

550 ppm

500 ppm

450 ppm

400 ppm

Drought (frequency)

Fig. S16. As Fig. 8 but using CIAS tuned to CSIRO2

13

A1FI

550 ppm

500 ppm

450 ppm

400 ppm

Drought (frequency)

Fig. S17. As Fig. 8 but using CIAS tuned to ECHAM4

14

A1FI – 550 ppm

A1FI – 500 ppm

A1FI – 450 ppm

A1FI – 400 ppm

SPI5 drought (mo)

Fig. S18. Reduction in number of months under SPI5 drought in 2050–98, simulated by CIAS tuned to

HadCM3, between the the A1FI SRES scenario and four stabilization scenarios

15

A1FI – 550 ppm

A1FI – 500 ppm

A1FI – 450 ppm

A1FI – 400 ppm

SPI12 drought (mo)

Fig. S19. As Fig. 10 but using CIAS tuned to ECHAM4

16

A1FI – 550 ppm

A1FI – 500 ppm

A1FI – 450 ppm

A1FI – 400 ppm

SPI5 drought (frequency)

Fig. S20. As Fig. 11 but using CIAS tuned to CSIRO2

17

A1FI – 550 ppm

A1FI – 500 ppm

A1FI – 450 ppm

A1FI – 400 ppm

SPI5 drought (frequency)

Fig. S21. As Fig. 11 but using CIAS tuned to ECHAM4