European Federation for Transport & Environment

Aviation and the environment:Aviation and the environment:status and technological prospectsstatus and technological prospects

Jos Dings30 November 2004

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About T&E

Members in: Austria Belgium Czech &

Slovak Rep Denmark Estonia France Germany Greece Hungary Italy

Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland UK

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Economic benefits of air transport into perspective

Contribution to EU economy (1998): approx. 1% Contribution to EU employment (1998): approx. 0.2%

Contribution to global warming (2000): ca 7% according to latest insights Contribution to noise nuisance:

15-20% (Germany 2002)

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Global Warming due to aviation in 1992 (IPCC 1999)

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CO2

O3-formatio

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contrails

Total*

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orc

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[m

W/m

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* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate

Methanereduction

Cirrus clouds

•49 mW/m2

(3.5% of total)

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Global Warming due to aviation in 2000 (AAC 2003)

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CO2

O3-formatio

ncontrails

Total*

Rad

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orc

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[m

W/m

2]

* Including other effects: water vapour directly, soot, sulfate

Methanereduction

Cirrus clouds

•116 mW/m2 (ca 7% of total)

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Climate change: baseline trends Industry: 70% improvement has

been achieved per available seat kilometre ….

… yes, but compared with 1st generation jets

Meanwhile volume growth over 1000 %

1994: B777 with GE90 engine Since then: no substantial further

improvements

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Overview fuel reduction technology Engine

‘bleed air’ elimination Pressure & bypass ratios High-speed propeller ?

Drag Aircraft shape Wingspan and wingtips grooves, cleaning

Weight Design Materials: composites e.g. GLARE

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New projects 2006: Airbus A380

Competes with Boeing 747-400 555 till even 800 seats Approx. 10% more fuel efficient, half the noise ? Wing span (80 x 80) and weight limit reductions Boeing: 747A can compete (+3.5 m, +35 pax,

7E7 engine, decision 2005)

2008: Boeing 7E7; Airbus 350 ? Compete with A330, B757/767 200-260 seats Approx. 15% more fuel efficient ? Airbus: A330 ‘light’ (+7E7 engines) can compete Airbus A350 not yet official

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Boeing 7E7 ‘Dreamliner’: 15% better than competitors ?

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Airbus A380: 15% better than Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ ?

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Reactions to CO2 + NOx charges in EU airspace

Total CO2 emissions some 115 Mtonnes EUR 30/tonne CO2, EUR 3.6 per kg NOx ( =

approx. 12 ct/l) Revenue raising:

Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 9 & 10% Demand and supply impacts equal Revenues EUR 5 bln (35 EU budget)

Revenue neutral (feebate/rebate): Reduces CO2 & NOx by approx. 5 & 6% Only supply-side effects No revenues

Fleet renewal !!!!

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Two sources on supply-side (technology) responses

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Contrails and cirrus Warm the earth probably more than

CO2 Depend on ambient & exhaust gas

temperature & humidity New engines cause more ! Solution: Air Traffic Management

(EUROCONTROL !) Military aircraft can avoid them for

visibility reasons)

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Alternative: hydrogen ? Makes water and NOx emissions

probably worse

Much heavier aircraft, but lighter fuel

Hydrogen production ?

Many believe kerosene will be one of last oil products

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Local air pollution

In particular: NOx and PM

Problem NOx : Modern engines: less CO2, less PM, less HC, but more NOx !

Problem PM: massive health issue

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NOx reduction potential

Main approach: improved combustion chamber technology Staged combustion Variable airflow inlets

More revolutionary & most promising: Lean premixed pre-vaporised LPP Rich burn Quick quench Lean burn (RQL) Reduction up to 90% claimed

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NOx emission factors vs ICAO standards NOx emission factor is growing, despite

regulation

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ICAO-standard(rel.)

Fleet average EI NOx (rel.)

(NASA forecast for 2015)

CAEP/ 2-standard

CAEP/ 4-standard

CAEP/ 6-standard

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Noise: lost opportunities

‘Chapter 4’ in place in 2006 Only 3 d(A) quieter than 1978

‘Chapter 3’ standards 2001: > 95% already complied Best aircraft: six times quieter than

Ch.4

Airports now hold the key

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Aircraft can be much, much quieter !!!

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Trade-offs Between CO2 and NOx :

High pressure ratio engines Between CO2 and contrails/cirrus

Low temp. exhaust gas -> more contrails Between CO2 and noise

Steep climb = more fuel In policy discussions:

Favourite hobby of industry Less serious than often thought correct incentives ALL impacts needed

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The future perspective, climate Growth stays at 4-5%/yr

Climate BaU CO2: 1% p.a. improvement, 3-4% growth Contrails/cirrus: > 5% p.a. growth ?.

Climate technically feasible CO2 improvement up to 2% p.a. ? Contrails/cirrus: avoidance largeley

feazible

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The future perspective, noise & NOx NOx

BaU: no improvement, > 5% p.a. growth ? Incentives: large improvements possible

Noise: BaU: improvement smaller than growth Incentives: improvement feasible !

Co-ordinated efforts by airports (noise charges, noise ceilings)

European Federation for Transport & Environment

T&E is Europe’s primary NGO campaigning on a Europe wide level for an environmentally

responsible approach to transport. info@t-e.nu

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