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By Linda Naylor
EUROPEANPOLYOLEFINS OUTLOOK 2018
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
MARKET OUTLOOKPE IMPORTS TOP 2018 EUROPE AGENDA PP BALANCED
BY LINDA NAYLOR FEBRUARY 2018
Now that 2018 is fully under way sources are looking towards the potential impact of new capacities coming on stream globally and how these will affect Europe in 2018 which is expected to be a year when price movements in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) could diverge significantly
In recent years European naphtha-based PE and PP have mostly moved in line with each other New ethane-based PE production mainly from North America could change this
It is not yet clear when PE imports from new North American (as well as Indian) capacities will start to come into Europe in substantial volumes and as time goes by the expected date of arrival of these volumes moves back
By February 2018 sources were plumping for the second half of the year for big volumes to arrive with smaller quantities arriving towards the end of the second quarter Most had given up hope of seeing much in the first quarter
Low PE prices in global terms in Europe are expected to delay the arrival of imports but a certain amount will be inevitable in 2018 ndash and these cargoes are expected to have an impact on pricing
For PP the situation will be different There is very little new PP supply due compared with PE and a new environmental push in China could affect the amount of planned PP start-ups
RECENTUPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN NEW PE PLANTS
CompanyCapacity tonnesyear
Grades Location Start-up
SasolINEOS 470 HDPE La Porte Texas US Nov 2017
ExxonMobil 1300 mLLDPE LLDPE (2 x 650) Mont Belvieu Texas US End 2017
Chevron Phillips 1000 HDPE mLLDPE Sweeny Texas US Q3 2017
Dow Chemical 400 Elite PE Freeport Texas US Q3 2017
Dow Chemical 350 LDPE Plaquemine Louisiana US Q4 2017
Sasol 470 LLDPE Lake Charles Louisiana US 2018
Sasol 420 LDPE Lake Charles Louisiana US 2019
Formosa Plastics 800 HDPE (400) LDPE (400) Point Comfort Texas US H2 2018
Dow Chemical 125 Bimodal HDPEMDPESeadrift Texas St Charles Louisiana
2018
LyondellBasell 500000 HDPE LaPorte Texas Mid-2019
ExxonMobil Chemical 650 PE (unspecified) Beaumont Texas 2019
RECENT INDIAN NEW PE PP PLANTS
CompanyCapacity tonnesyear
Grades Location
OpAl 340000 HDPE Dahej
OpAl 720000 LLDPEHDPE swing
Dahej
OpAl 340000 PP Dahej
Reliance 550000 LLDPEHDPE swing
Jamnagar
Reliance 400000 LDPE Jamnagar
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
China has steadily increased the intensity of its war against pollution over the past three years especially the war against pollution generated by burning coal ndash and some of the projected PP plants are based on a coal-to-olefins process
In 2018 no oversupply of propylene (and hence PP) is expected ndash in fact some European producers expect propylene to be tight throughout 2018 Others expect a more balanced picture but there are few sources that expect a long propylene market in 2018
EURtonne
Ethylene FD NEW Contract Reference Price Contract Reference Month Announcehellip (Mid)PE LLDPE Butene C4 FD NWE Assessment Spot 0-4 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)
Source 2017 ICIS
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700Julrsquo15 Julrsquo16 Julrsquo17Janrsquo15 Janrsquo17
Three propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units planned for Europe are not due before the early 2020s and while these propylene start-ups are also expected to bring some new PP output little is expected before then
This scenario leaves PP producers in a far more relaxed position than their PE counterparts
The new year began with the spread between monomers and polymers at its lowest point since MarchApril 2015
At that point in 2015 the market was on the brink of a massive upturn brought about by a sudden return of demand after a period of stagnant buying just as many producers had begun to export strongly This led to a sudden tightness that was exacerbated by a series of force majeures on both polymers and at the cracker level as flat-out production led to plant outages
Nobody excepts this scenario to be replicated in 2018 in spite of the strong exporting of ethylene at the end of 2017 but polymer selling sources are gearing up for some return of margin before the arrival of any significant quantity of imports from new plants
An attempt to increase the spread between monomer and polymer in January was a failure however and another move was made in February
Our new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies and secure a competitive advantage
View real-time global plant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months for your subscribed commodities plus the impact of capacity changes to minimise risk and optimise production
Forward plan into 2018 with ICIS PetrochemicalsAnalytics Solutions
REQUEST A DEMO
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Linda Naylor has been covering plastics markets for ICIS for over 20 years starting in
Paris and later moving to London Linda is also author of the ICIS European polyethylene and polypropylene price reports which follow price
fluctuations and drivers monitor supplydemand dynamics and enable you to make better
business decisions
LINDA NAYLOR SENIOR EDITOR
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene
PolypropyleneSEE ALL AVAILABLE CHEMICAL PRICE REPORTS gtgt
This occurred just at the moment when crude and naphtha prices slipped and global stock share prices fell There were already signs that increased monomer prices were being covered at most PE and PP accounts but it was not clear whether much margin would be recovered
In 2017 particularly in the PE market as prices often rose simply in line with monomer and not because supply was tight argued buyers and this sentiment is continuing in quarter one 2018
One PE producer was positive however
ldquoDynamics are positiverdquo it said ldquoexport activity is picking uprdquo
Asian polyeolefins prices were firm with high density PE (HDPE) in particular strong so exporters from regions such as the Middle East were more interested in selling volumes eastward rather than towards Europe
During the second half of the year new PE volumes would affect all regions of the globe
In the main most sources agreed that the outlook for PE for the rest of 2018 is that fresh imports will arrive to disturb the balance of the European market and this is just a question of timing in PP a balanced market is likely to better support sellers
PE and PP are used in packaging and the manufacture of household goods PE is also used in agriculture and PP in the automotive industry
ICIS price forecast reports are produced by the Consulting division of ICIS which operates independently of our Editorial team The concise monthly reports include details of prices margins capacity supply and demand for the next 12 months ndash all in a single report
Choose ICIS price forecast reports to Settle contract prices Review your market position Make production or commercial decisions Buy or sell with confidence
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene Polypropylene
Supply demand and price trends at a glance
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
MARKET OUTLOOKPE IMPORTS TOP 2018 EUROPE AGENDA PP BALANCED
BY LINDA NAYLOR FEBRUARY 2018
Now that 2018 is fully under way sources are looking towards the potential impact of new capacities coming on stream globally and how these will affect Europe in 2018 which is expected to be a year when price movements in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) could diverge significantly
In recent years European naphtha-based PE and PP have mostly moved in line with each other New ethane-based PE production mainly from North America could change this
It is not yet clear when PE imports from new North American (as well as Indian) capacities will start to come into Europe in substantial volumes and as time goes by the expected date of arrival of these volumes moves back
By February 2018 sources were plumping for the second half of the year for big volumes to arrive with smaller quantities arriving towards the end of the second quarter Most had given up hope of seeing much in the first quarter
Low PE prices in global terms in Europe are expected to delay the arrival of imports but a certain amount will be inevitable in 2018 ndash and these cargoes are expected to have an impact on pricing
For PP the situation will be different There is very little new PP supply due compared with PE and a new environmental push in China could affect the amount of planned PP start-ups
RECENTUPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN NEW PE PLANTS
CompanyCapacity tonnesyear
Grades Location Start-up
SasolINEOS 470 HDPE La Porte Texas US Nov 2017
ExxonMobil 1300 mLLDPE LLDPE (2 x 650) Mont Belvieu Texas US End 2017
Chevron Phillips 1000 HDPE mLLDPE Sweeny Texas US Q3 2017
Dow Chemical 400 Elite PE Freeport Texas US Q3 2017
Dow Chemical 350 LDPE Plaquemine Louisiana US Q4 2017
Sasol 470 LLDPE Lake Charles Louisiana US 2018
Sasol 420 LDPE Lake Charles Louisiana US 2019
Formosa Plastics 800 HDPE (400) LDPE (400) Point Comfort Texas US H2 2018
Dow Chemical 125 Bimodal HDPEMDPESeadrift Texas St Charles Louisiana
2018
LyondellBasell 500000 HDPE LaPorte Texas Mid-2019
ExxonMobil Chemical 650 PE (unspecified) Beaumont Texas 2019
RECENT INDIAN NEW PE PP PLANTS
CompanyCapacity tonnesyear
Grades Location
OpAl 340000 HDPE Dahej
OpAl 720000 LLDPEHDPE swing
Dahej
OpAl 340000 PP Dahej
Reliance 550000 LLDPEHDPE swing
Jamnagar
Reliance 400000 LDPE Jamnagar
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
China has steadily increased the intensity of its war against pollution over the past three years especially the war against pollution generated by burning coal ndash and some of the projected PP plants are based on a coal-to-olefins process
In 2018 no oversupply of propylene (and hence PP) is expected ndash in fact some European producers expect propylene to be tight throughout 2018 Others expect a more balanced picture but there are few sources that expect a long propylene market in 2018
EURtonne
Ethylene FD NEW Contract Reference Price Contract Reference Month Announcehellip (Mid)PE LLDPE Butene C4 FD NWE Assessment Spot 0-4 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)
Source 2017 ICIS
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700Julrsquo15 Julrsquo16 Julrsquo17Janrsquo15 Janrsquo17
Three propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units planned for Europe are not due before the early 2020s and while these propylene start-ups are also expected to bring some new PP output little is expected before then
This scenario leaves PP producers in a far more relaxed position than their PE counterparts
The new year began with the spread between monomers and polymers at its lowest point since MarchApril 2015
At that point in 2015 the market was on the brink of a massive upturn brought about by a sudden return of demand after a period of stagnant buying just as many producers had begun to export strongly This led to a sudden tightness that was exacerbated by a series of force majeures on both polymers and at the cracker level as flat-out production led to plant outages
Nobody excepts this scenario to be replicated in 2018 in spite of the strong exporting of ethylene at the end of 2017 but polymer selling sources are gearing up for some return of margin before the arrival of any significant quantity of imports from new plants
An attempt to increase the spread between monomer and polymer in January was a failure however and another move was made in February
Our new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies and secure a competitive advantage
View real-time global plant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months for your subscribed commodities plus the impact of capacity changes to minimise risk and optimise production
Forward plan into 2018 with ICIS PetrochemicalsAnalytics Solutions
REQUEST A DEMO
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Linda Naylor has been covering plastics markets for ICIS for over 20 years starting in
Paris and later moving to London Linda is also author of the ICIS European polyethylene and polypropylene price reports which follow price
fluctuations and drivers monitor supplydemand dynamics and enable you to make better
business decisions
LINDA NAYLOR SENIOR EDITOR
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene
PolypropyleneSEE ALL AVAILABLE CHEMICAL PRICE REPORTS gtgt
This occurred just at the moment when crude and naphtha prices slipped and global stock share prices fell There were already signs that increased monomer prices were being covered at most PE and PP accounts but it was not clear whether much margin would be recovered
In 2017 particularly in the PE market as prices often rose simply in line with monomer and not because supply was tight argued buyers and this sentiment is continuing in quarter one 2018
One PE producer was positive however
ldquoDynamics are positiverdquo it said ldquoexport activity is picking uprdquo
Asian polyeolefins prices were firm with high density PE (HDPE) in particular strong so exporters from regions such as the Middle East were more interested in selling volumes eastward rather than towards Europe
During the second half of the year new PE volumes would affect all regions of the globe
In the main most sources agreed that the outlook for PE for the rest of 2018 is that fresh imports will arrive to disturb the balance of the European market and this is just a question of timing in PP a balanced market is likely to better support sellers
PE and PP are used in packaging and the manufacture of household goods PE is also used in agriculture and PP in the automotive industry
ICIS price forecast reports are produced by the Consulting division of ICIS which operates independently of our Editorial team The concise monthly reports include details of prices margins capacity supply and demand for the next 12 months ndash all in a single report
Choose ICIS price forecast reports to Settle contract prices Review your market position Make production or commercial decisions Buy or sell with confidence
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene Polypropylene
Supply demand and price trends at a glance
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
China has steadily increased the intensity of its war against pollution over the past three years especially the war against pollution generated by burning coal ndash and some of the projected PP plants are based on a coal-to-olefins process
In 2018 no oversupply of propylene (and hence PP) is expected ndash in fact some European producers expect propylene to be tight throughout 2018 Others expect a more balanced picture but there are few sources that expect a long propylene market in 2018
EURtonne
Ethylene FD NEW Contract Reference Price Contract Reference Month Announcehellip (Mid)PE LLDPE Butene C4 FD NWE Assessment Spot 0-4 Weeks Full Market Range (Mid)
Source 2017 ICIS
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700Julrsquo15 Julrsquo16 Julrsquo17Janrsquo15 Janrsquo17
Three propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units planned for Europe are not due before the early 2020s and while these propylene start-ups are also expected to bring some new PP output little is expected before then
This scenario leaves PP producers in a far more relaxed position than their PE counterparts
The new year began with the spread between monomers and polymers at its lowest point since MarchApril 2015
At that point in 2015 the market was on the brink of a massive upturn brought about by a sudden return of demand after a period of stagnant buying just as many producers had begun to export strongly This led to a sudden tightness that was exacerbated by a series of force majeures on both polymers and at the cracker level as flat-out production led to plant outages
Nobody excepts this scenario to be replicated in 2018 in spite of the strong exporting of ethylene at the end of 2017 but polymer selling sources are gearing up for some return of margin before the arrival of any significant quantity of imports from new plants
An attempt to increase the spread between monomer and polymer in January was a failure however and another move was made in February
Our new and enhanced petrochemical analytics and insight puts you in a stronger position so you can optimise your trades plans and strategies and secure a competitive advantage
View real-time global plant outages and maintenance for the next 12 months for your subscribed commodities plus the impact of capacity changes to minimise risk and optimise production
Forward plan into 2018 with ICIS PetrochemicalsAnalytics Solutions
REQUEST A DEMO
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Linda Naylor has been covering plastics markets for ICIS for over 20 years starting in
Paris and later moving to London Linda is also author of the ICIS European polyethylene and polypropylene price reports which follow price
fluctuations and drivers monitor supplydemand dynamics and enable you to make better
business decisions
LINDA NAYLOR SENIOR EDITOR
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene
PolypropyleneSEE ALL AVAILABLE CHEMICAL PRICE REPORTS gtgt
This occurred just at the moment when crude and naphtha prices slipped and global stock share prices fell There were already signs that increased monomer prices were being covered at most PE and PP accounts but it was not clear whether much margin would be recovered
In 2017 particularly in the PE market as prices often rose simply in line with monomer and not because supply was tight argued buyers and this sentiment is continuing in quarter one 2018
One PE producer was positive however
ldquoDynamics are positiverdquo it said ldquoexport activity is picking uprdquo
Asian polyeolefins prices were firm with high density PE (HDPE) in particular strong so exporters from regions such as the Middle East were more interested in selling volumes eastward rather than towards Europe
During the second half of the year new PE volumes would affect all regions of the globe
In the main most sources agreed that the outlook for PE for the rest of 2018 is that fresh imports will arrive to disturb the balance of the European market and this is just a question of timing in PP a balanced market is likely to better support sellers
PE and PP are used in packaging and the manufacture of household goods PE is also used in agriculture and PP in the automotive industry
ICIS price forecast reports are produced by the Consulting division of ICIS which operates independently of our Editorial team The concise monthly reports include details of prices margins capacity supply and demand for the next 12 months ndash all in a single report
Choose ICIS price forecast reports to Settle contract prices Review your market position Make production or commercial decisions Buy or sell with confidence
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene Polypropylene
Supply demand and price trends at a glance
Copyright 2018 Reed Business Information Ltd ICIS is a member of RBI and is part of RELX Group plc ICIS accepts no liability for commercial decisions based on this content
Linda Naylor has been covering plastics markets for ICIS for over 20 years starting in
Paris and later moving to London Linda is also author of the ICIS European polyethylene and polypropylene price reports which follow price
fluctuations and drivers monitor supplydemand dynamics and enable you to make better
business decisions
LINDA NAYLOR SENIOR EDITOR
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene
PolypropyleneSEE ALL AVAILABLE CHEMICAL PRICE REPORTS gtgt
This occurred just at the moment when crude and naphtha prices slipped and global stock share prices fell There were already signs that increased monomer prices were being covered at most PE and PP accounts but it was not clear whether much margin would be recovered
In 2017 particularly in the PE market as prices often rose simply in line with monomer and not because supply was tight argued buyers and this sentiment is continuing in quarter one 2018
One PE producer was positive however
ldquoDynamics are positiverdquo it said ldquoexport activity is picking uprdquo
Asian polyeolefins prices were firm with high density PE (HDPE) in particular strong so exporters from regions such as the Middle East were more interested in selling volumes eastward rather than towards Europe
During the second half of the year new PE volumes would affect all regions of the globe
In the main most sources agreed that the outlook for PE for the rest of 2018 is that fresh imports will arrive to disturb the balance of the European market and this is just a question of timing in PP a balanced market is likely to better support sellers
PE and PP are used in packaging and the manufacture of household goods PE is also used in agriculture and PP in the automotive industry
ICIS price forecast reports are produced by the Consulting division of ICIS which operates independently of our Editorial team The concise monthly reports include details of prices margins capacity supply and demand for the next 12 months ndash all in a single report
Choose ICIS price forecast reports to Settle contract prices Review your market position Make production or commercial decisions Buy or sell with confidence
FIND OUT MORE AND DOWNLOAD A SAMPLE REPORT FOR
Polyethylene Polypropylene
Supply demand and price trends at a glance
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